Earnings Labs

VEON Ltd. (VEON)

Q4 2023 Earnings Call· Thu, Mar 21, 2024

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Transcript

Faisal Ghori

Management

Hi, good afternoon and good morning to everyone. Thank you for joining us today for VEON's fourth quarter results presentation for the period ending December 31, 2023. I'm Faisal Ghori, Head of Investor Relations. I'm pleased to be joined in the room today by Kaan Terzioglu, our Group CEO, along with Joop Brakenhoff, our Group CFO. Today's presentation will, as is usual, begin with the key highlights and business updates from Kaan following discussion of detailed financial results by Joop. We'll then hand it back to Kaan to discuss our outlook and priorities for 2024. We will then open up the line for Q&A. Before getting started, I would like to remind you that we may make forward-looking statements during today's presentation, which involve certain risks and uncertainties, these statements relating partly to the company's anticipated performance and guidance for 2024, future market developments and trends, operational network developments and network investments, and the company's ability to realize its targets in commercial and strategic initiatives, including current and future transactions. Certain factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements, including the risk detailed in the company's annual report on the Form 20-F and other recent public filings made by the company with the SEC. The earnings release and the earnings presentation, each of which include reconciliation of non-IFRS measures presented today, can be downloaded from our website. We also note that today's presentation will include ratings from credit agencies. A rating is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities and may be subject to revision or withdrawal at any time. With that, let me end it over to Kaan.

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

Thank you, Faisal. Good morning, good afternoon. Happy Nowruz, Ramadan Kareem to all. Thank you for joining our fourth quarter's 2023 and full year's results webcast. Before we get into the detail, allow me to turn and zoom out and refresh our memory. When Russia-Ukraine war started, we made a choice. We chose Ukraine. Our exit from Russia resulted, as you can see, in full year results in a very different VEON. We might be more compact in terms of balance sheet, half the size, but today we are a much faster growing company with a very healthy balance sheet. We continued delivering strong results in Q4 2023. Normalized revenues were up 18% year-on-year, and normalized EBITDA grew even faster at 25% year-on-year. For the full year, we have 18% top line growth, 20% EBITDA growth and 53% free cashflow growth, taking the free cashflow yield of 24%. Such results makes us extremely satisfied. Our decentralized operational model with world-class governance allows us to build a leaner, faster, more profitable, and more cash-generative company. Our local brands may be different. Jazz in Pakistan, Kyivstar in Ukraine, Banglalink in Bangladesh, Beeline in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Names, brands may be different, but they all execute the same strategy, drive for the same targets, and they grow faster than their local competition. In the majority of our markets, we have the highest net promoter scores, fastest broadband networks, and we are not only gaining market share, but also gaining wallet share. VEON today is resilient. It is strong. VEON is tough, which takes me to Kyivstar in Ukraine. I want to thank our CEO, Alexander Komarov and his exceptional team. In the aftermath of the cybersecurity attack on December 12th on our network, thanks to their swift response, as of yesterday, we have…

Joop Brakenhoff

Management

Thanks, Kaan. I'm pleased to present some of our key revenue milestones for the full year and the fourth quarter. This year marked yet another period of double-digit year-on-year growth in local currency revenues across all six of our markets. Total revenue in local currency increased by 18% year-on-year, with service revenue also rising by 18% year-on-year. Despite these strong growth figures, our reported service revenue in dollar terms showed a slight decrease of 1% year-on-year on a reported basis. This was largely due to local currency depreciation in several of our key markets, especially in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Uzbekistan and Ukraine. The driving forces behind our revenue growth include gains in market share and the expansion of our digital platforms across all operations, coupled with the implementation of disciplined inflationary pricing strategies. On the next page, I will elaborate on our EBITDA and EBITDA margin. In full year 2023, VEON experienced a 20% year-on-year increase in local currency normalized EBITDA, with our normalized EBITDA margin improving by 0.8 percentage points to 46.2%. It's crucial to recognize that our EBITDA growth was influenced by extraordinary one-off events in Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan throughout full year 2023. By making adjustments for these one-off occurrences, we gain a clearer view of VEON’s operational progress and profitability in local currency over the last 12 months, providing a more accurate measure of our financial health and efficiency. For the recent quarter, we have achieved substantial year-on-year growth in local currency revenues across our six markets, with total revenue growing 80% year-on-year, culminating in reported revenue of $953 million. Our reported currency revenue has shown modest growth, with a 1% rise year-on-year. As mentioned prior, this figure was influenced by notable depreciation in local currencies within our markets, mostly significant in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Uzbekistan and…

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

Thank you Joop. Let me look into 2024 outlook. A year ago when we provided our guidance for 2023, we have indicated that the 2023 was up for a year for 10% to 14% growth in top line and EBITDA. Over the years, over the months, we have increased our guidance and we actually increased the guidance in Q3 to 18% to 20% growth for revenues and EBITDA. We finished 2023 with 18% growth of top line and 20% growth in EBITDA. Looking to the trends of the first two months, we are cautiously optimistic that the momentum of growth continues. And we are setting a guidance for 2024 for 16% to 18% growth of top line and 18% to 20% growth in EBITDA. We expect our 12-month CapEx intensity to be in between 18% to 19%. We believe that as we execute our digital operator strategy and improve our 4G penetration in [all the] (ph) markets, this momentum will enable us to achieve these results. Thank you very much. I will stop here and open for discussions and questions. Thank you.

A - Faisal Ghori

Operator

Our first question comes from Rahul Shah from [indiscernible]. In which markets are you seeing the scope for the biggest revenue uplift from the digital strategy?

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

During my presentation, I have mentioned that the most advanced digital operator execution engine in our market is Kazakhstan. And we actually see here 73% 4G penetration, and we generate almost 60% of our revenues from customers who consume also our digital services. This is followed by actually a very strong performance from Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Bangladesh.

Faisal Ghori

Management

Second question also from Rahul. Regarding asset disposals, do you have any visibility or scale location timeline? What are you facing the biggest challenges to upstreaming profits or asset sale proceeds?

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

In all the markets that we operate in, we do have independent tower companies currently owned by us, and we are actually able to execute processes for transacting on either partially or fully on these tower companies. I do expect over the 18 months, these projects to deliver fruits. This year we have finished in 2023 with one-third of our towers in Bangladesh and that will probably be the earliest ones that we will come back to the market again. Now, disposal of assets is one thing that we create value from our balance sheet, but I also see our growing digital services as an attraction for international investors for actually taking strategic positions as well. Entertainment services like Tamasha and Toffee in Pakistan and Bangladesh, Fintech services like Simply in Kazakhstan or JazzCash in Pakistan are also examples of potential value creation for us.

Faisal Ghori

Management

The next question is also from Rahul. Your guidance implies a slight uptick in CapEx intensity this year. Where will this extra investment be focused and why the shift in approach?

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

Last year we actually were 1 percentage point below where we wanted to be and this was due to the basically import controls that Pakistan has put in place. So as that actually disappears, we do expect our normal path, which we started as you know about three years ago from 22% and now we are down to 19%, 18%, last year was actually a 1 percentage point less than what we wanted to do in terms of investments. This is actually where we should be.

Faisal Ghori

Management

Okay, I'm going to switch to some of our kind of retail investors. Are there any plans to award shareholders with a dividend?

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

At this stage, we believe it's too early to come to that conclusion, and we will keep everybody posted on that.

Faisal Ghori

Management

The next question is also from our retail platform. Are there any updates on the application that was submitted in Bangladesh for the digital banking license?

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

We are still in the process of talking with the authorities in terms of the digital banking license and there has not been any news on that.

Faisal Ghori

Management

Okay, The next questions come from Stella Cridge from Barclays. Can you talk about how discussions around refinancing options have been progressing? How are you thinking about addressing the 2025 bonds?

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

Well, I will also ask Joop to chip in on this one, but for 2025 bonds, we believe that we are on track for normal maturity of those bonds. Any comments you would like to add?

Joop Brakenhoff

Management

I think what is important that VEON got a credit rating back and is now putting in place all the building blocks to address those maturities as we near those maturities which to voice it out are more than a year wasted.

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

Thank you.

Faisal Ghori

Management

There's another question. Can we just comment about in greater detail about which subsidiaries are you able to upstream?

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

We do not have it currently except for Ukraine, which is under martial law, any subsidy with limitations of upstreaming.

Faisal Ghori

Management

Could you comment more about your engagement in Ukraine?

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

Sure. Ukraine is actually -- our team in Ukraine is doing a heroic job in terms of keeping our network up and running. As I mentioned to you, not only that we are deploying new sites, we are multiple times deploying the same sites again and again to keep the network connected. In the meantime, we do have a very functional open dialogue with the Ukrainian authorities to make sure that this service levels and support for the country continues.

Faisal Ghori

Management

Another question from the chat is, can you comment regarding your views on kind of FX and FX risk going forward?

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

Look, if I look to last four years, we had the era of COVID and later war. And, if I look back also in the last two years, one of the biggest, I think, impact that emerging markets have experienced was increase of the interest rates from almost 0 to 5.25%. This is a financial equivalent of a nuclear bomb in emerging markets. I'm very happy to see that with regard to this type of a turbulence, despite the fact that we had significant devaluations, our US dollar reported numbers were only down 2%, actually 1.5%. I do expect that in the next era, the stabilization on the interest rates and potentially moderation of the interest expenses. And this is probably be an era of more stability in the emerging markets economies.

Faisal Ghori

Management

The next question also comes from Stella Cridge. Can you comment about your kind of auditor situation and kind of its resolution?

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

Yeah. Joop, I’ll pass it to you.

Joop Brakenhoff

Management

Thanks, Kaan. After the sale of the Russia operations in October 2023, it was clear that the market really opened for ourselves. We've seen that analysts are supporting us, we've seen the rating agencies stepped in again, and also our discussions with the auditors started again. As a result, we have engaged with the auditor for 2023, but of course late in the process. And therefore also our filing will be late, but the auditor has started, so it's positive news.

Faisal Ghori

Management

The next question comes from Michele Fiumara from Helikon. Can you provide guidance on HQ costs in 2024 and beyond?

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

Hi, Michele, thanks for the question. Actually in 2023, we made a massive reorganization at the HQ, which allowed us to save almost 55% of our run rate. Now we have reduced it to the level of $75 million a year. And I do expect that optimization of our cost, of course, will continue as we normalize our operations. But HQ has contributed a lot to this year's margin expansion and we have completed this successful transformation last year.

Faisal Ghori

Management

The next question is also from Stella Cridge from Barclays. What are the sovereign bonds that you refer to in the presentation? What country do they relate to? Is $150 million nominal value or market value?

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

We do keep some of our cash balances in Ukraine in US denominated sovereign funds. And I think we are referring to that amount.

Faisal Ghori

Management

Can you comment regarding JazzCash in Pakistan in terms of revenue and asset size to the company?

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

Of course, JazzCash is a private entity within our operation. But if I look to its run rate growth, we have almost $100 million of revenue run rate. It is EBITDA positive, cashflow positive, and growing almost at 82% year-on-year with a very healthy unit economic cost. I believe this is going to be one of the driving factors of our business growth in Pakistan. If I look to overall Pakistan operations, almost 15% of our revenues today are generated through non-telecom assets and a massive portion of that comes from JazzCash and Mobilink banking financial services.

Faisal Ghori

Management

The next question is from Rahul Shah. Now that you have a bond rating, will you be looking to extend your debt maturity profile?

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

We are looking for expanding our debt maturity profile, but my number one priority of achieving this is actually through the tower sales in local markets with long-term lease contracts other than anything else. That will allow us to basically de-leverage the company at the headquarters, get rid of hard currency debt, and turn it into local currency long-term lease commitments.

Faisal Ghori

Management

The next question is also from Michele. Any relevant license payments do you expect in 2024 and beyond?

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

There is no renewals coming up except for a renewal in Kyrgyzstan which is immaterial in total picture.

Faisal Ghori

Management

Okay. The next question is from [Dmitry Ivanov] (ph). How do you plan to utilize the expected tower sale proceeds? Do you plan to finance local operations from the sales proceeds or upstream to the holding level?

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

So as I mentioned, from my perspective, tower transactions is a very effective way of refinancing, hard currency, top line debt with local currency, long term debt. And this is our primary objective. And of course, we will use this also to further de-leverage the company.

Faisal Ghori

Management

Dmitry also has a second follow-up question regarding your debt profile. Do you plan to reduce it? And if yes, what is a comfortable amount of debt at the holding level for you?

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

Joop, please also chip in, but the way I see it today, our leverage ratio is 1.43 if you exclude the long-term leases and 1.83 if you include them. And ideally we would like to be somewhere in between 1 and 1.5 during this period, right?

Joop Brakenhoff

Management

Yeah, and especially we want to deliver it to the group, especially de-lever the HQ and then leverage the OpCos. And as I mentioned in the presentation, this will of course result to higher interest rates and therefore we are a little bit conservative on that 1 to 1.5 times. Yeah.

Faisal Ghori

Management

Those are all the questions in the queue. I think we'll give it another minute.

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

Thank you very much for being with us. I see that we have almost 100 people online. My greatest respects and looking forward to talking to you soon. Thank you very much.

Joop Brakenhoff

Management

Thank you.

Faisal Ghori

Management

Thank you.