Earnings Labs

VEON Ltd. (VEON)

Q3 2025 Earnings Call· Mon, Nov 10, 2025

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Transcript

Anand Ramachandran

Management

Hello. Good afternoon, and good morning to everyone. Thank you for joining us today for VEON's Third Quarter 2025 results for the period ending 30th September 2025. My name is Anand Ramachandran, Chief Corporate Development Officer for VEON. Allow me to introduce our senior management in the room today. Next to me is Mr. Kaan Terzioglu, our Group CEO; and next to him, Mr. Burak Ozer, our Group CFO. Today's presentation, as usual, will begin with the key highlights and business update from Kaan, followed by a discussion of the financial results from Burak. We will then open the line for Q&A. Before we begin, please note that today's presentation may include forward-looking statements, which involve certain risks and uncertainties. These statements relate to the company's anticipated performance, 2025 guidance, market development, operational and network investments and the company's ability to realize its targets and initiatives. Our actual results may differ materially due to risks detailed in our annual report on Form 20-F and other filings with the SEC. The earnings release and presentation, including reconciliations of non-IFRS measures are all available on our Investor Relations website. With that, let me hand it over to Kaan.

Muhterem Terzioglu

Management

Thank you, Anand. Good morning, good afternoon, and welcome to everyone. Let me begin with a remarkable milestone. In September, our monthly digital service users surpassed monthly telecom SIM card users for the first time, a defining moment in our journey as a true digital operator. This signals the scale of the opportunity ahead of us and the extraordinary growth still to come. Across our footprint, more than 0.5 billion people, and we see a rising digital adoption, expanding connectivity and powerful demographic momentum. These markets are not just large. They are accelerating, underpinned by innovation and low base effects that create multiple vectors of sustained growth. At the heart of this opportunity is our digital operator model, uniquely positioned to capture and drive this transformation. By combining connectivity, digital platforms and financial inclusion, we are unlocking sustainable growth and enduring value creation for customers, communities, governments and shareholders alike. And now let's start the key messages from our Q3 results. I am pleased that we have delivered another strong quarter, starting with our financial performance. Our revenues grew 7.5% year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms. U.S. dollar EBITDA increased by 19.7% year-on-year. This is yet another $1 billion-plus revenue quarter and a $0.5 billion plus EBITDA quarter. On the back of this performance, we are raising our fiscal year 2025 EBITDA outlook. We now expect 16% to 18% EBITDA growth for the year in local currency terms, up from 14% to 16% earlier. Second, we are driving exceptional momentum in expanding our digital services portfolio. Direct digital revenues grew 63% in U.S. dollar terms and now contribute 17.8% of our total group revenues. Our AI 1440 strategy is becoming central to our operations with ongoing work on large language models and increasing integration into Agentic AI-powered customer-facing solutions. We are…

Burak Ozer

Management

Thank you, Kaan. Looking at group revenues, we delivered total revenue of USD 1.115 billion in the third quarter, representing a growth of 7.5% in U.S. dollar terms. As previously noted by Kaan, the quarter included the deconsolidation of TNS+ in Kazakhstan, the consolidation of Uklon and the sale of Deodar and our Kyrgyzstan business. On a like-for-like basis, that adjust for this, our revenues grew 10%, underscoring the continued momentum across our operating markets. Direct digital revenues grew 63% year-on-year to reach $198 million. Digital services now account for 17.8% of total revenues, up from 11% a year ago. Turning the page to profitability. EBITDA for the quarter was USD 524 million, representing growth of 19.7%. The EBITDA margin stood at 47% for the quarter, up 410 basis points year-on-year and was supported by operating leverage and disciplined cost management across all markets. We note that our digital services now account for 17.8% of group revenue. While digital margins are structurally lower, their significantly lower CapEx intensity ensures comparable cash conversion relative to telecom services. As our revenue mix continues to shift in this direction, we remain focused on sustaining EBITDA growth at scale while enhancing group-wide capital efficiency and long-term free cash flow generation. Turning now to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with USD 1.67 billion in cash and deposits, of which USD 653 million is held at headquarters. Net dividends upstream from operating companies during the quarter totaled USD 96 million and USD 285 million for the year-to-date. Gross debt stood at USD 4.86 billion, up slightly from June and reflected the completion of our USD 200 million bond issuance during the quarter. Approximately half of our external debt is now held at operating company level, providing natural currency hedging. Net debt was USD 3.48 billion, while net debt, excluding leases, improved to USD 1.73 billion, bringing leverage down to 1.13x EBITDA. Let me now hand the call back to Kaan.

Muhterem Terzioglu

Management

Thank you, Burak. Let me conclude with our outlook for the year. Despite ongoing macro and geopolitical challenges, VEON continues to execute strongly across all markets. We are revising our EBITDA outlook for the full year and now expect EBITDA growth of 16% to 18% in local currency terms for the full year. We are maintaining our revenue guidance of 13% to 15% growth in local currency terms. In U.S. dollar terms, we expect this to translate to 7% to 8% revenue growth and 10% to 11% EBITDA growth for the full year, assuming no significant fluctuations in exchange rates from current levels. Our capital intensity, excluding Ukraine, remains with 17% to 19% range. These targets are based on a blended weighted average inflation rate of 8.2%. In closing, we are pleased with our business momentum. Looking ahead, we remain confident in VEON's trajectory and the opportunities before us. As I highlighted earlier, the Board has approved another $100 million share and/or bond repurchase program, reinforcing VEON's confidence in long-term value creation. VEON is well positioned to sustain growth and long-term value creation for our shareholders, customers and communities we serve. Thank you for your attention and support. Now we can open the line for Q&A.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Jesse Sobelson with BTIG.

Jesse Sobelson

Analyst

This is Jesse Sobelson with BTIG. I just wanted to ask about the recent transaction involving Kyivstar and the decision to bring the asset public via SPAC. Could you share the motivation for choosing a SPAC structure for this process? And then additionally, you noted that you own nearly 90% of the asset. Looking ahead, how are you thinking about your future ownership stake? Would you consider selling a portion of the holdings to generate liquidity? How would you balance the liquidity versus maintaining control of the asset?

Muhterem Terzioglu

Management

Thank you very much, Jesse, for the question. So with regard to Kyivstar's de-SPAC transaction, we are a true believer in Ukraine's future, and that's why we are championing invest in Ukraine now initiative throughout the world. And we thought it would be the right thing for us to find a deal certain fast track to list Kyivstar. And that's why we have opted for a de-SPAC process. And I'm very glad to conclude it on a successful basis as Kyivstar is now listed in NASDAQ at a valuation, which is 2.3x its net equity value of $1.25 billion at $2.8 billion. I think this was a very, very successful transaction from our side. Now naturally, SPAC comes with additional cost, given that deal certainty element and the speed of transaction process. But overall, I think being a pioneer in making sure creating opportunities for international investors in Europe and U.S. in participating for the future growth of Ukraine, I think it was the right thing. Now looking with the same perspective, we are keen to allow more investors to invest in Kyivstar. So we will be open for diluting our current position further to allow people from Ukraine, first of all, to have a chance to invest in Kyivstar and any credible international investor to also come in and be part of the success story that will be built in Ukraine. And we will continue championing our invest in Ukraine now initiative all around the world as well. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Nicholas Paton with Edison Group.

Nicholas Paton

Analyst · Edison Group.

Just a quick question on Kyivstar. There's quite a lot of cash at the head office level. I think it's $600 million or so. What's the plan for that? And how easy will that be to repatriate up the chain?

Muhterem Terzioglu

Management

I think Nicholas, $653 million is the headquarters cash at VEON, not Kyivstar.

Anand Ramachandran

Management

Kyivstar $470 million.

Muhterem Terzioglu

Management

$470 million would be the right amount for Kyivstar. And as you know, we are still at war. So Martial law still stays in place. During the Martial law, there are limitations on upstreaming. There is $1 million per company type of a dividend limit. But what we would like to see actually is just in line with our Invest in Ukraine Now initiative, you will see us actually investing in Ukraine. And we have been active with Helsi acquisition and Uklon acquisition. We believe that there is a unique opportunity to build a digital ecosystem in the country. And naturally, based on the needs of the country, whether it is energy resilience, energy storage needs or investing in growth opportunities, we will be also looking into those. But in the meantime, our objective is to make sure that we keep our cash safe in assets that are in either generating cash or creating capacity for us to protect ourselves from potential devaluations.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Adrian Cundy with Emerging & Frontier Capital.

Adrian Francis Cundy

Analyst · Emerging & Frontier Capital.

Sorry, my video is not functioning well today. So I just [indiscernible] you can see my picture. I have 2 questions. First, relating to UTC and just infrastructure in general within Kyivstar, will we be seeing you continue to pursue divestment on the Pakistan model of tower assets in the Ukraine? Or is VEON planning to retain control of that for the foreseeable future, particularly given that Kyivstar is now talking about a significant network upgrade and is beginning to touch on 5G in line with the national development strategy. And the second question I have relates to the financial services in Pakistan. Now that JazzCash and the bank are stand-alone entities, how do you sort of see them working with the [indiscernible] business? Can we get some more color on what type of loans are being extended? And finally, do you sort of see further initiatives and value extraction for the Pakistan business?

Muhterem Terzioglu

Management

Well, let me start answering your first question about our tower business in Ukraine. Naturally, it's no surprise, I think no secret that we have a strategy of being asset-light, and we see actually tower operations more valuable under the management of independent tower companies, which allows sharing of infrastructure among multiple operators. So it's no different in Ukraine. So the first step was us creating our independent tower company is, I think, a move in the right direction, but we will be looking for opportunities around sharing infrastructure in the country in a more effective way and ultimately, making sure that the tower operations are owned and operated by an independent party, which can further focus on marketing activities of this infrastructure. There are multiple benefits of separating towers from the operating companies. As you know, our telecom industry has been heavily penalized by cross-subsidization of business models like infrastructure businesses and service businesses. And in everything we do, we try to avoid that and make sure that we focus on the right customer rather than cross-subsidizing different businesses. So you will see more actions and news on that front. We are one of the biggest infrastructure providers, of course, in Ukraine, but I believe no telecom company can afford to have its own exclusive networks. We need to learn to share networks, and that's the path for increasing cash generation capacity for our businesses. So -- and that's the first question. The second question, financial services business. In countries like Pakistan, the unmet demand in financial service area is huge. People who are unbanked, who have no way of having access to financial services is an existing opportunity that we have supported. So that's why we have our microfinance bank, MMBL as well as our digital wallet operator,…

Anand Ramachandran

Management

What was the third question again? Can you repeat it, please?

Adrian Francis Cundy

Analyst · Emerging & Frontier Capital.

I guess the follow-up is just on that on even a stand-alone, is there any -- are you looking at value extraction or value recognition for your digital assets in places like Pakistan?

Muhterem Terzioglu

Management

I think the answer is clearly, yes, as the opportunities come to the right level and scale. For us, digital services portfolio we have serves 2 important purposes. One is the multiplay strategy that we have on our regular telecom business. As our customers use our digital services, they stay longer with us, they consume more. And then, of course, the direct digital revenue potential of these service lines from entertainment to financial services drives additional growth for us. And to be precise, the ARPU level increase and the churn reduction of digital services impact on our SIM user base has nothing to do with the direct digital revenues that we report. These are 2 different growth. The growth on one side drives our business on telecom side and the other one drives the business on the digital services. And when the right scale arrives, of course, we will be looking for crystallization of the value of our digital services portfolio.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Ahmed Mostafa with Inam.

Ahmed Mostafa

Analyst · Inam.

I have two questions. Jazz delivered a strong EBITDA margin uplift this quarter. And yet you have indicated that consolidated margins may soften over the long run as digital services say. So how do you manage this trade-off between scale and profitability? And second, you have raised your EBITDA growth guidance for this year. So could you walk us through the main drivers behind this improvement in the EBITDA margin?

Muhterem Terzioglu

Management

Ahmed, good point. We thought the digital services businesses would be having a bigger dilution on our EBITDA margins. So far, we failed on that. Yes, our EBITDA margins are also improving compared to the business as our digital services are growing. But I think I attribute that on really discipline when it comes to operational cost management of our operations. But let me also give the word to our CFO, Burak, anything you would like to add on that?

Burak Ozer

Management

Yes. On top of the discipline in terms of driving efficiencies on cost side, we are also having disciplined price actions, price increases that we are taking in line with the market conditions that would beat the inflation, devaluation plus the GDP growth. So those 2 combined together definitely is helping our margin.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Vincent Fernando with Zero One.

Burak Ozer

Management

We can't hear you yet.

Anand Ramachandran

Management

Operator, shall we try again move to the next question maybe come back to Vincent.

Vincent Fernando

Analyst · Zero One.

Can you hear me now?

Anand Ramachandran

Management

Yes.

Vincent Fernando

Analyst · Zero One.

I apologize for that. I just want to ask again on the JazzCash and MMBL. Now that you have these more operating independently, do you plan to also try to take some of the capabilities in that -- in those businesses and then maybe bring it to expand your fintech business in other markets? The other question is that when you look at the MAUs for JazzCash, it's about 20.6 million, I think, most recently. Your total telco subs are 72.7 million. So there's still a lot of room to actually convert just your existing subs into JazzCash or MMBL customers. So are there other strategies you have to sort of increase the penetration for that as well? Those are my 2 questions.

Muhterem Terzioglu

Management

Vincent, I think you're spot on in terms of both organic and accelerated growth opportunities in this business. Now you need to keep in mind that Pakistan is still a frontier market where 4G penetration as well as smartphone penetration has certain limits in terms of the penetration capabilities. I translate those into upsides that are in front of us. So one of the key initiatives that you will see us focusing on in Pakistan is smartphone ownership. Affordable smartphones will be critical. And they will come up with, of course, their own embedded digital services on top of that. So we have quite a lot of appetite in this conversion. And I would like to make sure that everybody who is our customer is having access to the digital services, whether it be on financial services or entertainment or health care or education to have access to these platforms. So you're right. In addition to the growth that we see, I think the organic growth can accelerate, and that's the basis of the sustainable growth expectation we have from the marketplace really. Now with regard to our ability to leverage the competencies and the experiences that we built in Pakistan in other markets, absolutely. And that's why we are very excited about the growth potential in Bangladesh and potentially in Ukraine. And the know-how that we have in terms of risk managing a bank, first of all, but also having credit scoring engines fine-tuned for these type of nano loans, all these capabilities are applicable in all the markets. And of course, our intention is to make sure that we leverage these, just like our intention around making Uklon or Helsi, our health care platform or our ridesharing platform also be available through all the super apps we have in all the countries.

Vincent Fernando

Analyst · Zero One.

Got it. Just one little quick follow-on on that. So Pakistan, I believe, has a digital bank licensing framework. But I guess under MMBL, you also have a license there. Do you -- is there value in you having one of those digital bank licenses? Or is it that you can actually operate -- you can have MMBL, I guess, operate on parts where you want more banking services, JazzCash and payments? Just want to understand if that's something that's part of the road map or maybe just not needed?

Muhterem Terzioglu

Management

We operate currently under the microfinance banking license. However, I believe that we can do more and we can contribute more to the Cashless Economy Initiative of Prime Minister, that will require us to upgrade our license to a digital bank, full digital bank license, and we are in the process of looking for ways of achieving that sooner rather than later. I think the success story of JazzCash is very visible and recognized very strongly by the Pakistani government as well. They want the same. We want the same. And I think we will get to a level of much higher capabilities if we upgrade it to a full digital bank license, and we are working on it.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Ali Zaidi with Inam.

Ali Zaidi

Analyst · Inam.

So my question is related to ride-hailing. We have seen that it already contributes -- it's like the third largest contributor to the digital revenue. So do you have any plans to like explore other markets for this business, specifically Pakistan considering recent exits of the major player in that country. Do you see a potential for like an entry and growth in this segment?

Muhterem Terzioglu

Management

So Ali, the ride-hailing business is really -- when you look to the markets, it's a city-by-city operation. So currently, it operates in 28 cities, 27 of those cities are in Ukraine. One is in Tashkent in Uzbekistan. And we clearly have an ambition and appetite to grow this business in a certain priority list to other markets. Whether this will be starting from Kazakhstan or Pakistan or at the same time, we are working on different sort of initiatives, but it will be a city-by-city decisions as every city has different characteristics.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Matthew Harrigan with The Benchmark Company.

Matthew Harrigan

Analyst · The Benchmark Company.

I feel more confident in putting out a positive VEON preview than I do on T-Mobile or Comcast, which is -- I'm not sure whether that's good or bad from my perspective. But one thing that's interesting and clearly, the dynamics for you are different because you're such a market leader. But when you look at T-Mobile in the U.S., they have a very strong benefit from switching share relative, obviously, Verizon and AT&T to other large competitors that don't have as good a network, but still definitely big animals that they're wrestling with. And if you really assume that there's not a lot of growth in the U.S. mobile market, just by virtue of their switching share, they can continue to put up really, really nice numbers. And your -- that analysis, I guess, would be pertinent to you on the full gamut of apps that you're running as well as mobile. But are you such a market leader that anything that comes along with device innovation or any perceptions of network quality don't affect you that much because almost by definition, you're so much larger than your competitors that it's -- you almost definitionally have to erode a little bit? Or do you think that as you do get CES, you see -- and I know people are not buying iPhone 17 Pros in Pakistan very often. But do you feel like with switching share and device innovation and awareness of how powerful these apps are and how good it is to have the best mobile network when you're running these apps that it can help you? Or do you think that you're kind of largely a function that just really, really correlates with the overall market growth in mobile and the demand for the app? Sorry, a little long-winded there, but I'm sure you get the gist of it.

Muhterem Terzioglu

Management

Matthew, I think the opportunity that in front of us is exciting from 2 perspectives, not only that we have the digital services, which are attractive to our customers, but also there are so many customers who are still not yet connected even. We're going to be having 90 million additional people who will be having access to 4G networks, who will be buying their first smartphones. And hopefully, those smartphones will be bought from us with our applications installed on them with their ability without having maybe a credit card that they can pay for the services for the games, for the videos for the channels that they need. And that's why I'm excited because, yes, we are big. We are -- except for Bangladesh, we are #1 in all the markets that we operate in. And in Bangladesh, we are #1 if you compare our entertainment platform and the other super apps that we have. And I truly believe that as our customers who have never touched yet any other service than calling somebody, and there are 40 million of them on our network. Those people will have a smartphone. They will have their first connection. They will watch their first movie online on mobile networks. And we are looking forward to those days and 40 million of them will be there to basically be our customers. That's why I believe the organic growth is an incredible opportunity. That's why I opened it with that slide. But the acceleration that will come through digital services will just be unmatchable as an opportunity for us to grab.

Matthew Harrigan

Analyst · The Benchmark Company.

Okay. No, that's -- you're in a better position than having to fight to grab market share in a privileged position, but you kind of are the market growth. That's a good place to be.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Vincent Fernando with Zero One.

Vincent Fernando

Analyst · Zero One.

There's a little lag, but I'm here. So I just want to double tap again on the fintech in Pakistan. You reported $23.8 million EBITDA for the third quarter. Are you able to give any color on maybe how much of that -- like where can we start to look at a run rate? Because you did $20.3 million in the second quarter, USD 23.8 million EBITDA in third quarter. I'm just trying to try to find a base for run rate. Is it relatively recurring in nature? I just want to understand that.

Muhterem Terzioglu

Management

Yes. Our financial services business in Pakistan is actually quite a steady growth business. So over the last 6 quarters, every quarter, we have been seeing a continuous growth of 40% to 30% every single quarter. And looking into our future, I see no reason for this to go down. I think we'll continue keeping that lines. Clearly, the lending business has a balance sheet criteria in terms of growth. But currently, I feel comfortable with those.

Operator

Operator

We have no further questions at this time. I will now pass back to Anand Ramachandran for closing remarks.

Anand Ramachandran

Management

Thank you. Thank you. Well, guys, thank you so much for dialing in as usual. Thank you so much for your support of VEON. As always, please e-mail us, call us here if you have any questions at all, and we'll continue talking. But till then until the next quarter, thank you, and bye-bye.

Muhterem Terzioglu

Management

Thank you very much.