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Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET)

Q4 2011 Earnings Call· Mon, Mar 5, 2012

$13.12

+4.04%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Vermilion Energy Inc. Fourth Quarter Release Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Lorenzo Donadeo, President and Chief Executive Officer for Vermilion Energy Inc. Thank you, Mr. Donadeo. You may begin.

Lorenzo Donadeo

Analyst

Thank you, Claudia. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us today to discuss our fourth quarter and full-year 2011 financial and operating results. I'm Lorenzo Donadeo, President and CEO of Vermilion. Joining me today are Curtis Hicks, Executive Vice President and CFO; Bob MacDougall, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; and Dean Morrison, Director of Investor Relations. Earlier this morning, we released our fourth quarter and full-year results for 2011, reporting fund flows from operations for the fourth quarter of $137 million, that's $1.46 per share and full-year funds flows from operations of $474 million, that's $5.22 per share, significantly ahead of the analyst consensus of $4.99 per share. The significant 33% increase in fund flows for full-year 2011 as compared to 2010 was attributable to strong growth and average production volumes, as well as our significant exposure to Dated Brent crude. That's -- we have about 46% of our production exposed to Dated Brent. And Dated Brent averaged $16.15 U.S. premium to WTI during 2011. The increase was further attributable to our high netback natural gas production in the Netherlands, representing approximately 16% of our consolidated production volumes, which received an average price of $9.59 per MCF in 2011. Combining these volumes with our Cardium light oil production in Canada results and our consolidated production volumes for 2011, having an approximately 80% weighting to crude oil pricing. A recent look at the forward strip pricing reflects the market's current expectation for continued strength in pricing for oil and Dated Brent in particular. And at current price of over $125 per barrel, Dated Brent is trading at approximately -- at approximate $18 per barrel U.S. premium to WTI, a premium that is currently forecast average more than USD $14.50 per barrel for 2012. With our…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is coming from the line of Eric Castle [ph] with CCI.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Just a quick question. How do you see the M&A market? Is it relatively empty, relatively full? How do you just see the M&A? And how would you look at that?

Lorenzo Donadeo

Analyst

Well, we're pretty focused on oil weighted or liquids-rich gas opportunities with the weakening in North American natural gas prices. And what we look at -- we're looking at assets in North America and internationally. We're finding that a lot of the oil-weighted assets right now are priced quite competitively at pretty high prices, the best in North America anyhow. We're looking at other opportunities internationally. We continue to evaluate those. We're pretty patient and we're looking for the right opportunity with the right mix of assets that fit our 20/20 vision. And so we'll continue to look at those. But like I say in the near term, it seems like some of the oil opportunities are quite fully priced.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Okay. And can you say anything more about your international look at shale, just any other information you can provide?

Lorenzo Donadeo

Analyst

We're in the early stages on the couple of opportunities but we're trying to capture some large blocks of opportunities that are in the very early stage of development. And so we're hopeful that by the end of 2012, we'll have 2 to 3 material land positions in shale oil or shale gas opportunities that are in Europe or in Australia. In addition to the opportunities that we've identified in Canada that we captured, we bought 100, as we say -- as mentioned that we got 197 net sections in Canada, and we'll be adding to that by the end of 2012 as well.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Okay. And lastly, is there any news from the Netherlands from those wells that you had sort of off-line for over a year?

Lorenzo Donadeo

Analyst

These are the subsidence?

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Yes.

George MacDougall

Analyst

Yes. The progress is slow -- slower than we like, but we continue to make some progress and the focus clearly is really on 2 parts. We continue to update the technical work. We think we have a couple of solutions that were just fairly[ph] worked on now. And then the second piece is as we completed the negotiations with the municipalities and stuff around any potential compensation so progress but it is slow.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Is there any chance this year you'd get it back or...

George MacDougall

Analyst

We anticipate that over the next 12 months, you'll start to see us spring some of the gas production back on but the timeframe for the full amount of gas production is probably in the 24-month kind of time frame.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

And would that be back to the original level or like half the original level or?

George MacDougall

Analyst

Well, that's the goal but that's subject to some approval by the regulator here. So that's what we're in the process of doing, is getting everybody comfortable that we can manage this and do the job and bring it back on and not have any further significant subsidence in the area so...

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is coming from the line of Gordon Tait with BMO Capital Markets.

Gordon Tait

Analyst

A couple of questions. First in Australia, you've mentioned that the volumes number [ph] are not as high as expected. Is there some issue, some common issue that's going on in the Australian production that might persist for a while? Do you see it being resolved?

Lorenzo Donadeo

Analyst

Yes. Gordon, you're referring to volumes less than what we had forecast or...

Gordon Tait

Analyst

Yes, just -- you kind of make a mention to that, that the incremental volumes were not as high as expected, the deferred some future workovers. So is that studying [indiscernible] there's some potential issues there, do you think?

Lorenzo Donadeo

Analyst

Yes. I mean, we have a couple of workovers that we did in Q2 of last year and they were essentially the shut-off high water production from a portion of horizontal wells. And we got -- we encountered some difficulties, so we actually had deferred and delayed further work. So we're continuing to do some study work there. So that's the first thing. The second thing is we did see some additional decline on one of our bigger wells the last -- the end of last year and that of course transferred into current production rates from there. But we're still on track to spud a couple of wells at the end of the year. We got a rig contracted. You probably see us drill 2, hopefully 3 wells starting latter part of 2012.

Gordon Tait

Analyst

Okay. And then in Canada, it looks like these Cardium results are kind of having probably better than what you might have thought at some point. Would you say that the tight [ph] curve, your average tight [ph] curve, are you in position to say that, that actually maybe improved over what you had originally been modeling?

Lorenzo Donadeo

Analyst

I'd say no that our tight [ph] curve remains the same internally, and what we're doing is we're getting results that closely match that. If you look at -- if you take a close look at the wells that we're drilling and brought on production in Q4 last year and we saw real strong correlation between actual results and the tight [ph] curve expectations. So we're getting the results that we expect. In addition, we've been able to drive the cost down a bunch. So we haven't changed anything internally, Gordon.

Gordon Tait

Analyst

Okay. And then lastly, it looks like you recently licensed a well out of [indiscernible]. Is that part of the strategy you're looking to do more drilling up there? And what kind of affair you're looking for there?

Lorenzo Donadeo

Analyst

Yes. We really can't comment on that right now. But we are working -- we're always working and testing new opportunities. So it's still a bit early stage there. So we're not going to comment at this time.

Lorenzo Donadeo

Analyst

Gordon, just to clarify. For those 2 components to our exploitation program in Australia, there's the workover component and then there's the infill drilling component. And the workover component, we tested -- as Bob said, we tested that in the second quarter of last year. It didn't really turn out as we had hoped. The infill drilling component still remains very robust, and we're still planning -- and we still see a good inventory of opportunities there. That hasn't changed and we're looking to drill like I say, as we mentioned earlier, the 2 to 3 wells later this year.

Gordon Tait

Analyst

Yes. You see 2 to 3 wells every second year, is that what...

Lorenzo Donadeo

Analyst

Yes.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] It appears we have no further questions. I'll now turn the floor back over to management for any closing remarks.

Lorenzo Donadeo

Analyst

So thank you, Claudia, and thank you, everybody, for participating today in our conference call.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.