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Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (VIST)

Q4 2024 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 27, 2025

$73.25

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Vista’s Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the call over to Alejandro Chernacov, Strategic Planning and Investor Relations Officer. Please go ahead.

Alejandro Chernacov

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. We’re happy to welcome you to Vista’s fourth quarter and full-year 2024 results conference call. I am here with Miguel Galuccio, Vista’s Chairman and CEO; Pablo Vera Pinto, Vista’s CFO; Juan Garoby, Vista’s CTO; and Matías Weissel, Vista’s COO. Before we begin, I would like to draw your attention to our cautionary statement on Slide 2. Please be advised that our remarks today including the answers to your questions may include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from expectations contemplated by these remarks. Our financial figures are stated in U.S. dollars and in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards, IFRS. However, during this conference call, we may discuss certain non-IFRS measures such as adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income. Reconciliations of these measures to the closest IFRS measure can be found in the earnings release that we issued yesterday. Please check our website for further information. Our company is, Vista Sociedad Anonima Bursatil De Capital Variable organized under the laws of Mexico, registered in the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores and the New York Stock Exchange. Our tickers are VISTAA in the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores and VIST in the New York Stock Exchange. I will now turn the call over to, Miguel.

Miguel Galuccio

Analyst

Thanks Ale. Good morning everyone and welcome to this earnings call. 2024 was another outstanding year for Vista marked by double-digit growth rate in production and adjusted EBITDA having delivered on guidance for both metrics. We also secured new drilling, completion and oil treatment and transportation capacity which will underpin further growth in the coming years. I will kick it off by going over the results of Q4 and later a deep dive into the highlight of the full-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 was marked by a strong operational and financial performance, driven by new well activity in our development hub in Vaca Muerta. Total production was 85.3 million boe per day, an increase of 51% compared to the same quarter of last year and 17% compared to the previous quarter. Oil production was 73.5 million barrel of oil per day, 52% year-over-year and 16% quarter-over-quarter. Total revenues during Q4 2024 were $471 million, 52% above the same quarter of last year. Lifting cost was $4.7 per boe almost flat quarter-over-quarter. Capital expenditure was $340 million driven by 11 wells drilled and 13 wells completed during the quarter plus $64 million in development facilities. Adjusted EBITDA was $273 million, 5% below the same quarter of last year. If we net out the income generated by the repatriation of exports at the blue-chip swap rate, quarterly adjusted EBITDA grew 27% year-over-year. Net income was $94 million implying a quarterly EPS of $0.98 per share. Deducting deferred income tax, adjusted net income during the quarter was $22 million. Free cash flow was $57 million during the quarter. And finally, net leverage ratio at quarter-end was a solid 0.63 times adjusted EBITDA. During Q4, we record another quarter of double-digit production growth on a sequential and interannual basis. Total production at 85.3…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Bruno Montanari of Morgan Stanley. Your question please, Bruno.

Bruno Montanari

Analyst

Good morning, Miguel, Ale and team. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to focus on production. If you could talk about the setup for production now in the first quarter of the year and how we should think about the trajectory throughout the following quarters by the end of the year, it will be great? Thank you very much.

Miguel Galuccio

Analyst

Bruno, thanks for your question. I would like to take the opportunity of that question to explain how we plan our development that drive our production forecast. I think you were spot on with your comment in your report when you state that we have to look to the full-year growth numbers. The two principle things that guide our development plan are how to optimize our operational efficiency and also how we optimize the productivity of our wells. So every time that we our people plan the development for the year and for the life of the well, they are looking at the NPV. They are not looking at how I would report quarterly to you. And unfortunately, that will make my work a bit more difficult, but I’m sure if you do it the other way, they will destroy value. In 2024, we grew 36% year-on-year and we grew 51% Q4 2023 to Q4 2024. We averaged in the year 70,000 barrel of oil per day. For 2025, we have guided 95,000 barrel to 100,000 barrel per day, would imply a growth of 35% to 40%. This is the number that we have to look at. Now, if we go to Q1 and then back to your question, Q1 2025, we are expecting flat to a bit lower production on sequential basis. This is driving by two factors. When we plan Q1 new well connection, we slightly delay activity to time with Oldelval expansion ramp-up. We pick our [own certain] (ph) barrel per day trucking around mid-December. I am planning for production grow in Q1, we have implied increasing the trucking fleet in January prior to ramp up to a rundown in February in-line with Oldelval commissioning. So that will be complicated from logistic and contractual point of view. So we end up planning for the quarter, as I said, with flat to probably slightly lower production. Additionally, it’s fair to comment that we entered January with a slightly lower production than we expected, and we have delay in connecting four parts for the year. Now again, to achieve the 95K or 100K average in 2025, we plan to ramp-up production with a big ramp-up in Q3 and Q4. And also, we will see EBITDA ramp up in time in Q2. So I hope I have answered your question. And again, thank you for your comment in your report.

Bruno Montanari

Analyst

Super. Thank you very much, Miguel.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Andres Cardona of Citi. Please go ahead, Andres.

Andres Cardona

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Miguel, following on the how to forecast production of maybe going towards 2026, linking it with the Vaca Muerta Sur expansion, could you please provide us an update about the status of the project, the dates of key dates of capacity, midstream capacity addition, how are you planning the production, equation between whenever you feel the capacity at Oldelval along till the first capacity from Vaca Muerta Sur is available?

Miguel Galuccio

Analyst

Hi, Andres. Thank you for your question. I think the main part of evacuation capacity that today is under contractual or under discussion is VMOS. So let me give you an update on that one to begin with. So we are seeing very good progress in that project. We already signed all the relevant documents related to the shareholder rights. I think also we did securing firm transportation for capacity. That capacity as a reminder is 50,000 barrel oil per day for us. We know that the main APC contractors have been, the contraction of the pipe, also the storage tank at the terminal and as well the port. Also, we know that the purchase order for the long-lead items have been placed. And in our estimation, we expect that project to be ready in mid-2027. The rest of the capacity is Oldelval, okay. But we know that as, it’s going to be ready in Q2 and the rest we have all in hand. So I think going forward and looking to the future, the main thing for the medium long-term for us is Vaca Muerta Sur.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Tasso Vasconcellos of UBS. Please go ahead Tasso.

Tasso Vasconcellos

Analyst

Hi, Miguel. Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking my question here. Miguel, Vista has been able to increase the equipment set in the past few years, bringing additional drilling rigs and frac set and so on. So a question we have is on the internal process, the mindset from the company to evaluate eventually signing a fourth drilling rig and of course eventually increasing further the potential of annual wells drilling. So maybe split the question here in two parts. What are the main metrics, the main drivers vis-a-vis the main risks in bottlenecks that the company look at when deciding to bring additional drilling rigs? And the second part of the question, if you do decide to bring this additional drilling rig, the fourth one, what could be the timing for decision and how could this impact the current guidance of 52 wells to 60 wells per year? This is my question. Thank you.

Miguel Galuccio

Analyst

Thank you, Tasso. Very good question. So we have discussed and we have the option to get a four rig from Nabors. A company we have on a strategic relationship as you know all rigs that we run today are coming from them and this discussion is always ongoing. So we have a full rig available to bring in at the same time condition that we have had due to the relationship that we have with them. In terms of the decision making process to make that call, I would say there are two probably main elements that we are following and it will have to be positive for us to consider that. One, is related to Andres’ question before is the midstream project. So having the capacity in hand to have evacuation. And I will say the second one in my view is Brent prices. I think we know we are looking at the 2025 with softer brand prices that we saw in 2024. And if it’s within our forecast range, I think it’s something that we will consider at some point of time. If it’s something change, it’s clearly a no go. So that are the main two factors that we will be looking into.

Tasso Vasconcellos

Analyst

All right. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Alejandro Demichelis of Jefferies. Please go ahead Alejandro.

Alejandro Demichelis

Analyst

Yes. Good morning, gentlemen. Thank you very much for taking my question. Miguel, I think you mentioned in your remarks that the pipeline of the Oldelval duplicates is completed and you expect the full ramp-up by the end of this quarter. Is that right? Just to confirm that. And if that is the case, how do you see your cost evolving during the rest of the year.

Miguel Galuccio

Analyst

Hi, Alejandro. Thank you for your question. So in case of Oldelval, the pipeline contraction is already finalized. The line pipe is in the pipe now and we are already seeing a ramp-up in flowing volumes. So based on the information that we have, we expect a continued ramp-up and have full capacity available end of Q1 and early Q2. As you know, this will add 315,000 barrels per day to the system, which corresponds 31,500 barrels of oil per day for Vista. We also know that expansion of the port terminal is also moving forward. So also we have been informing that it’s a good progress on the storage tank and dock. So I believe Oldelval is a reality already and we have access to that. In terms of cost, clearly that will have a big impact to us on the tracking front. In mid-December, we picked 30,000 barrel per day on trucking and the cost went up all the way up north of $20 per barrel. So in Q2 all that cost is going to disappear and clear that will impact EBITDA. So it’s a good news for us that Oldelval finally came through.

Alejandro Demichelis

Analyst

That’s great. Thank you. And in terms of the other costs, so lifting costs and drilling costs, how are you thinking about those evolving?

Miguel Galuccio

Analyst

Drilling costs, I think we don’t see the drilling costs going up during the year and lifting costs, as you know, we are planning to be slightly down to 2024.

Alejandro Demichelis

Analyst

That’s clear. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Bruno Amorim of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open, Bruno.

Bruno Amorim

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning, everybody. Hi, Miguel, Alejandro and team. Thanks for taking my question. Can you please comment on your views for the overall M&A environment in Vaca Muerta? Some foreign players decided to leave, but not all of them necessarily operate the assets. Are those still your potential targets given some assets are operated by your local competitors? What can you comment on the M&A environment? Thank you.

Miguel Galuccio

Analyst

Thanks, Bruno, for your question. As you know, I mean, we call for a shareholder meeting that will take place next Monday to prepare Vista to be prepared for potential M&A activity. Our attitude, the way that we are, we are always very pragmatic, I will say, disciplined and opportunistic on the M&A front. So we are always looking on everything that is happening that match with our focus that is still being Vaca Muerta shale oil. So I think to answer your question, you have to think that we are disciplined pragmatic opportunities. So we will look at to everything, okay, that is on the table on that respect. And we’ve been proving to be pretty good on the Vista as well. Thanks for your question, Bruno.

Bruno Amorim

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from [Melin Carvallo] (ph) of J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead, Melin.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hello, everyone. Thank you so much for the opportunity and congrats on the results. One of the things that we have been discussing with investors is whether run prices could change somehow operations and CapEx. We are seeing accommodation at a lower level and at J.P. we do expect it to go a little bit lower. So if you could please comment on how do you see this impacting operations and how the flexibility of CapEx considers this brand prices at lower levels?

Miguel Galuccio

Analyst

Hi, Melin. Thank you very much for the question. When we look at the downside risk in Brent and we look at this year, I mean, we see, as I mentioned before, a supply demand fundamentals to be with a market that would be softer than we have seen in 2024. This is mainly driven by the low oil demand, which is forecast to grow only 1 million barrels during this year. And on the other hand, on the supply side, we see at least 1.2 million barrels coming in, driven by Brazil, USA. Guyana also is coming with an increase, Canada, and interestingly enough Argentina also appear in the news with an increase of 100,000 barrels per day. So we have built our plan with a price assumption of Brent of in a range of $70 to $80. This implies $63 to $72 of realized oil prices. And we are currently seeing Q1 prices higher on the higher part of this range that we have forecast. So Q1 is coming ahead of what we plan. So if either realized oil prices are between $65 and $67, we will probably maintain our current plan. In case, I will say that the realized prices go below $55, then we will consider a shift in our capital investment for the year. As you know, we have a super flexible portfolio. We always said that we have a short cycle CapEx since the drilling and the completion take almost a month. So we are always have the flexibility to stop and also to accelerate. So but these are the parameters that you need to think that will drive for us to review our CapEx plan. I don’t forecast that we will be below $55 this year, but we have the ability to react if that happens.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

All right. Thank you very much.

Miguel Galuccio

Analyst

You’re welcome, Melin.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Walter Chiarvesio of Santander. Please go ahead, Walter.

Walter Chiarvesio

Analyst

Can you hear me?

Operator

Operator

Yes, sir. Please proceed.

Walter Chiarvesio

Analyst

Yes. Hi. Sorry. Yes, hello. Thank you for taking my question. Going back to the listing and CapEx cost, can you develop a little bit what is the impact of the Super Peso on that? I know that the netback margins are strong, but is that something that or if you can quantify how much has impacted in 2024? And how do you see 2025? And looking forward, if this is something that we should be concerned, I mean, the impact of the stronger currency in Argentina. That’s it for me.

Miguel Galuccio

Analyst

Hi, Walter. Thanks for the question. Probably starting with the lifting cost. So as you know, I mean, we record in Q4 $4.7 per barrel. This lifting cost that was 1% down vis-a-vis our Q3, and basically, I’m planning that because the reason of that was that we start to we continue capturing the benefit of economy of scale and the dynamic on the lifting cost that every time that we ramp up production, we dilute our feed cost. We also as you mentioned, we see cost pressure during 2024, driven by the flat effects and the peso inflation. This effect will still play a role in the core dynamic and will continue offsetting some of the savings that we continue putting in place. Now we think that this effect will be lower, will have a lower impact in 2025 as we assume that peso inflation continue to decelerate. So during 2025, we expect a slight reduction in lifting costs as we continue to invest in cost cutting initiatives and also as we continue increasing production. So we are guiding lifting costs between $4.3 and $4.5 per barrel. On the CapEx side, 70% of our CapEx as you know is U.S. dollar-denominated and 30% is peso-denominated. We are assuming our plan that our cost of well is going to be between $14 million and $14.5 million There, we said the one thing that we are doing that we have not communicated, but I’m happy to share with you with the new promotion of Matías Weissel, as COO of the company. We have the benefit of having [indiscernible] that have run the operations since the start of Vista and have is not only an international and very seasoned manager, but also within his skill set. He comes from the well construction site. So we have asked him to start a multi-year plan to look at what we can do not to improve the efficiency of our CapEx, but look into what we can do to change the game in term of what we do in term of well contraction. So we have put with him he have built a full team task force that will be focused in a multi-year effort with one real rig assigned to try what we can do to change the game or to change the way that we do things on the well construction side. So I have high hope for that initiative as well. Thank you for your question.

Walter Chiarvesio

Analyst

Thank you very much for the answer.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Leonardo Marcondes of BoA. Please go ahead, Leonardo.

Leonardo Marcondes

Analyst

Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking my question here. So my question is, why don’t you guys accelerate the production growth by bringing more equipment to do more wells in Argentina? And if the answer is limited capital availability, why not think about potential follow on capital increase given that Vista has one of the best valuation being in Latin America? Thank you very much.

Miguel Galuccio

Analyst

Thank you, Leo. Very good question. I think the reason why we trade one of the highest in LatAm is because we provide a higher growth with the best-in-class operational track record. As I mentioned before to Bruno, last year we grow 36% in year-over-year and this year we plan to grow again between 35% and 40%. So it’s not really a capital issue. As I mentioned to him as well, there is an art to find a sweet spot that combine the activity intensity that is required to fulfill the plan as well as being very cautious of what is the velocity that we apply to the development of our field in order to optimize the output and the NPV of the production that we put in place. So as you know, as we develop our plan and we develop our field, we have a combination of intensity in development and the risky and derisking at the same time. We have to derisk areas to make sure that we will continue drilling the best well that we can drill to maximize the value of the development of those fields. So but to your question I think is not a matter of CapEx. I think we are growing super-fast. I mean double digit 35%, 40% growth. And we believe we are optimizing the way that we manage the reservoir and we optimize the NPV or we are putting in place. And yes, as you mentioned, we have probably one of the best multiples. Now I believe we also continue to be cheap. When you go back to U.S. and you look at companies like Vista growing 35%, 40% a year, back 10 years ago, their multiple was around eight and our multiple today is about four. So I feel we’re still cheap for the growth that we are delivering. And thanks for your question, Leo.

Leonardo Marcondes

Analyst

Got it. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from [Juan Jose Munoz Rios] (ph) of BTG. Please go ahead, Juan.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi, everyone. Thank you for the opportunity. Just in the Vaca Muerta Sur project, I want to ask how much is the CapEx associated to the project in 2025 to be deployed for you? Thank you.

Miguel Galuccio

Analyst

Hi, Juan Jose. Thanks for your question. So first probably, we were to comment that we separate CapEx from investment. So CapEx, we still expect to be between $1.1 billion and $1.3 billion and that does not include the Vaca Muerta Sur investment. The total project investment for Vaca Muerta Sur is estimated around $3 billion. There is a potential bank financing of 40% to 60% of that project. So in our calculation, we are assuming that our equity investment will be in the range of $120 million to $180 million. So that is how you have to look our CapEx and investment for the year.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Marina Mertens of Latin Securities. Please go ahead, Marina.

Marina Mertens

Analyst

Hi, good morning, and thank you for taking my question. So regarding the potential lifting of capital controls, what would be the main benefits for Vista? Do you expect any improvements on at an operational level? And could it eventually lead to accelerating your growth plan?

Miguel Galuccio

Analyst

Thank you, Marina. Good question. I think the ease or lift of capital control will benefit the full industry. And of course, it’s going to benefit us. If you think about what could be the main benefit probably I think about two elements. The third element is it will make us more competitive. It will make us more competitive because we will probably have two impacts. One is more investment coming into Argentina. So again, more competition, more companies and I think that is good. I always believe that as we scale up our activity, we all benefit. So today, Vaca Muerta run with 33 rigs, U.S. run between 400 and 500 rigs. So if you will go to 100, 150 rigs, the cost of drilling, it will be a completely different one. And therefore, we’ll become more competitive. Also for service companies to come over to Argentina or to increase the capacity that they have today, I think lift on capital control will make a big difference. As you know, I mean, I used to run a service company, so I know how much it means for them. So it will be a super good news and it will make the whole industry in Vaca Muerta more competitive due to these two effects. Hey, Marina, thanks, yes.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Oriana Covault of Balanz. Please go ahead, Oriana.

Oriana Covault

Analyst

Hi, thanks for taking my question. This is Oriana Covault of Balanz. I have you mentioned, Brent pricing and potential volatility impacting your CapEx plans and so on. So I’m curious to know if you’ve considered establishing any hedging policy just to mitigate the potential impact of volatility? Thank you.

Miguel Galuccio

Analyst

Hi, Oriana. Thanks for your question. Yes, we have done that exercise and we have the discussion many times during the last several years that we’ve been running business in Argentina. And the answer that we have come up with is that we are already naturally hedged, being a very low cost producer, having no last maturities and also having that flexibility of a short cycle CapEx where we can accelerate and stop at any time. And I think we proved that during the COVID-19 years. Also, I mean, let’s face it, I mean, many of our investor can hedge themselves more efficiently than we do. And also, if we hedge and we end up having being successful on the hedging strategy, it will be considered one-off. And if we hedge and we miss it, it will damage us. So no, the answer is we don’t plan to hedge. And every time that we go through that discussion, we convince ourselves that being natural hedge is the best way that we can hedge our business.

Oriana Covault

Analyst

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference back to Miguel Galuccio for closing remarks. Sir?

Miguel Galuccio

Analyst

Thank you very much for participating, for your question, for your reports. And I take the opportunity to thank also all the team of Vista that have made this 2024 possible. It was a difficult plan to deliver [indiscernible], but we make it happen. So thanks to them and all the great people that work with us. Thank you very much and have a good day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.