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Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. (VLRS)

Q3 2025 Earnings Call· Tue, Oct 28, 2025

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Liliana Juárez González: Good morning, and welcome to our third quarter 2025 earnings call. Joining us today are our President and CEO, Enrique Beltranena; our Airline Executive Vice President, Holger Blankenstein; and our CFO, Jaime Pous. They will be discussing the company's results followed by a Q&A session. This call is for investors and analysts only. Please note that this call may include forward-looking statements under applicable securities laws. These are subject to several factors that could cause the company's results to differ materially, as described in our filings with the U.S. SEC and Mexico CMBB. These statements speak only as of the date they are made, and Volaris undertakes no obligation to update or modify them. All figures are in U.S. dollars compared to the third quarter of 2024, unless otherwise noted. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Enrique.

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano

Management

Good morning, everyone. This quarter once again demonstrated that Volaris' agility and discipline continue to set us apart in a complex environment, driving tangible results. We acted nimbly and with focus, fine-tuning our network and capturing sequential improvement in demand across our core markets. Our results this quarter confirm that our commercial and operational strategies are delivering according to our flight plan. In our last earnings call, we noted that demand momentum was starting to build, and this quarter validated that trend. The recovery we anticipated for the second half is unfolding day by day as we projected. We observed stable domestic demand in a rational supply environment. Additionally, travel sentiment improved in the cross-border market, notwithstanding the geopolitical disruptions observed throughout the year. We executed where it mattered most, taking deliberate actions to strengthen profitability. The third quarter's performance in terms of unit revenue was fully in line with our expectations. The year-over-year variation in TRASM has narrowed each month, confirming that demand recovery continues to strengthen across our network. The sequential improvement is the proof statement that our strategy is delivering consistent momentum, and we believe that improved booking curves for the fourth quarter should position Volaris for a stronger 2026. In the domestic market, supply rationalization across all players continues to create a healthier balance between capacity and demand. Our load factor in the Mexican market reached 89.8%, consistent with last year's levels and reflecting a stable demand under a more rational supply environment, which supports healthier yields going forward. In the international market, we are seeing a steady recovery in cross-border demand with traffic improving month-over-month and holiday bookings already trending ahead of last year. Our 77% load factor reflects our tactical focus on optimizing yields to maximize TRASM. We remain focused on what is within…

Holger Blankenstein

Management

Thank you, Enrique, and good morning, everyone. Operationally, our team delivered another quarter of strong disciplined execution. Volaris PRASM performance reflects our ability to anticipate market shifts and respond decisively, managing capacity to protect yield and maximize profitability. Volaris maintained network stability and operational flexibility throughout the quarter, effectively managing delays in aircraft deliveries and ongoing engine constraints. As a result, ASM growth reached 4.6%, coming in slightly below our guidance of approximately 6%. Overall, total third quarter load factor stood at 84.4%. The domestic load factor reached 89.8%, supported by steady demand through the summer season in a balanced supply environment. August performed particularly well, benefiting from an extended public school vacation period. Looking forward, current booking curves for the holiday season look solid. International load factor was at 77% as we actively prioritize yields overloads to optimize profitability. For the fourth quarter, as we head into the holiday high season, international traffic is tracking stronger with historical seasonality, setting the stage for improved profitability as we close the year. And as Enrique mentioned, VFR cross-border demand has been recovering sequentially. We believe we have reached an inflection point in the U.S.-Mexico transborder market with booking trends showing sustained improvement compared to last year. While we remain disciplined in our capacity deployment, this strengthening demand backdrop provides greater visibility heading into 2026. Moreover, we continue to drive robust ancillary adoption. Our average ancillary revenue per passenger for the third quarter reached $56, marking the eighth consecutive quarter above the $50 threshold. Ancillaries now consistently account for over half of total revenue, remaining a standout driver of resilience and profitability across all market conditions. This performance highlights the structural strength of our ULCC model in our markets and the sustainability of our revenue mix. The sequential TRASM improvement we anticipated…

Jaime Esteban Pous Fernandez

Management

Thank you, Holger. Our third quarter financial results reflect our adjustments to prioritize profitability as cross-border traffic conditions gradually improved throughout the summer. Despite external headwinds, we succeeded in controlling what we can control, and we delivered on each line of guidance. Let me first turn to our P&L for the third quarter compared with the same period last year. Total operating revenues were $784 million, a 4% decrease. On the cost side, CASM was $0.079, virtually flat versus the third quarter of 2024 with an average economic fuel cost down 1% to $2.61 per gallon. CASM ex-fuel was $0.0548, aligned with our guidance and up just 2%. This result reinforces the success of our variable cost model and our effective cost management as we achieve our CASM ex-fuel guidance despite flying fewer-than-expected ASMs and encountering a peso that appreciated more than planned versus the second quarter. While a stronger peso is a benefit to Volaris' overall results, it adversely impacts our cost lines. As a reminder, fleet-related expenses such as depreciation and amortization, depreciation of right-of-use assets and maintenance continue to reflect the full fleet included grounded aircraft. In addition, as we approach a higher number of lease returns in 2026, the P&L line for aircraft and engine variable lease expenses captures the effect of the delivery accruals, which means this line item includes related maintenance for aircraft returns scheduled in the future. Current market conditions have created opportunities to acquire aircraft coming up for redelivery on attractive terms, helping reduce future redelivery expenses and extend time on the assets. Leveraging these opportunities, during the quarter, we acquired two of our formerly leased Cos, acting selectively and only where it made strategic sense. During the quarter, this also represented a benefit to the aircraft and engine variable lease expense…

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano

Management

Thank you, Jaime. I'd like to conclude our remarks with several reminders. First and foremost, Volaris continues to prove the strength and adaptability of our ultra-low-cost carrier model. We have shown once again that we can respond to market dynamics with discipline. Throughout 2025, we have adjusted our capacity growth from around 15% to nearly half that level while keeping our CASM ex-fuel fully in line with our original plan. Currently, travel sentiment, especially in the cross-border market is improving, a clear validation that our strategy is working. These trends position Volaris well for 2026 and beyond. Regardless of external conditions, our cost leadership, flexibility and expanding product suite are enabling us to address customer needs, capture profitable growth and continue creating value. At the same time, Volaris remains focused on offering low-cost, high-value service that makes air travel more accessible to our broader set of customers, including our core bus switching VFR segment. We are also optimizing itineraries, strengthening distribution and expanding our commercial offerings to drive higher TRAS among a diversified passenger set. We believe our markets are evolving. How European low-cost air travel developed 2 decades ago with strong growth potential, expanding passenger segmentation and a clear preference for affordable high-value travel. Volaris is advancing from a position of strength, leading in our core markets with one of the most efficient cost structures in the world, one that will further improve as we reduce fleet ownership costs and close the gap between productive and nonproductive aircraft. Finally, let me be clear, we are not changing our DNA. Our proven low-cost, low complexity model continues to evolve with enhanced ancillary and loyalty offerings that attract a broader customer base, improve fare mix and strengthen long-term profitability. In short, we are disciplined. We're evolving, and we are well positioned to continue delivering sustainable value for our shareholders.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is going to come from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI Institutional Equities.

Duane Pfennigwerth

Analyst

You mentioned a couple of interesting things in the prepared remarks. One, international is tracking stronger than normal seasonality. And then two, that you believe we're at an inflection point in U.S. transborder. Can you just elaborate on both of those?

Holger Blankenstein

Management

Duane, this is Holger. So yes, let me talk a little bit more in detail about the U.S.-Mexico market. We're talking about an inflection point because since mid-August, our sales in the U.S.-Mexico transborder market are above last year's level. And that clearly demonstrates our ability to fine-tune our capacity, manage demand and capture the market momentum that we're seeing. If we look into the fourth quarter, the U.S.-Mexico transborder booking trends are also showing a sustained improvement compared to last year. And that's why we are quite optimistic about the fourth quarter traffic evolution, both in the domestic, but also in the transborder market.

Duane Pfennigwerth

Analyst

Okay. And then maybe you probably covered this and maybe I missed it, but can you tell us the number of lease returns that you expect next year, how many aircraft will go back? How does that compare to this year? And I don't know if there's any good way to kind of net that expense relative to the reimbursement that you're getting from Pratt? Like how do we think about the net of lease return expense and reimbursement in '25 and '26?

Jaime Esteban Pous Fernandez

Management

Duane, this is Jaime. In terms of redeliveries of plan, next year, we're budgeting 17 redeliveries versus 7 that happened this year. So, it's a high number of deliveries. I would like you to focus there are many pieces related to aircraft deliveries, engine returns and redeliveries. So rather than focusing on just focus on our full year growth it is important that our priority, as Enrique mentioned, is to narrow the gap between productive and nonproductive fleet while ensuring that we deploy capacity to a market that is consistent with customer demand, all while maintaining the flexibility to adjust capacity up or down as well.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question will be from the line of Thomas Fitzgerald with TD Cowen.

Thomas Fitzgerald

Analyst

A lot of good stuff in the deck. I was wondering if you could dig into Slide 8 a little bit more and how we should think about the potential RASM uplift over the coming years as those initiatives ramp

Holger Blankenstein

Management

So, Thomas Fitzgerald, this is Holger again. So, we've quantified the potential for each of the products that we saw on Slide 8, and we expect a positive year-over-year impact on TRASM of these products in 2026. We expect that our commercial initiatives that you saw will begin contributing financially in 2026, and we will communicate the specific targets on all of those products as the adoption of those products scale. These initiatives that you saw there are going to be incorporated in our TRASM guidance for the next year for 2026 when we provide guidance in the next earnings call.

Thomas Fitzgerald

Analyst

And then I'm just kind of curious, as your customer mix diversifies and you take on more SME traffic, is there any investment or maybe it's immaterial, but just that you have to do for your cabin crew just on the soft product and maybe people who especially as you take in volume from some of your interline partners?

Holger Blankenstein

Management

So Tom, it is very important to mention that we are implementing the broadening of our customer base and target customers while maintaining a low cost, low complexity model. So you should not see any meaningful impact in our costs and in our complexity of the onboard product, for example, as we implement these products. We are broadening our target customer base, for example, through implementing different distribution channels like the GE, for example. We're going to diversify our revenue base, but we will maintain our low-cost, low complexity model.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Michael Linenberg with Deutsche Bank.

Shannon Doherty

Analyst

This is Shannon Doherty on for Mike. Thanks for taking my question. Enrique, you alluded to some growth trends or the growth trends, I should say, that you saw out of Guadalajara emerging in other markets. Can you provide us with some more examples?

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano

Management

Sure. I think when you look at our bus fare customer base, I mean, that's a segment that grows by far much more rapidly and much more different than any other business traffic that we can see, for example, in the U.S., okay? You can also see how our capacity to penetrate the market has improved our number of passengers that are using the airlines, okay? In the last years, we have developed more than 10 million passengers that have become first-time flyers, and that's really important. So that makes a dramatic difference versus a mature market.

Shannon Doherty

Analyst

And maybe more generally, what do you guys think is driving like the improved travel sentiment in the cross-border market? Like and how is demand in other Central American markets to the U.S.?

Holger Blankenstein

Management

This is Holger. So we actually did a survey of our customers, both in the U.S. and Mexico, and they target two main factors for not increasing travel more quickly in the first half of the year. We did it entering the summer season. The first was economic uncertainty, which is about 50% of the responses. And that economic uncertainty is improving significantly as macro conditions in both countries are strengthening in the second half of the year. So that's the reason for not traveling has evaporated and is improving significantly. The second concern was related to migration policies. People were worried about traveling and leaving the U.S. or going to the U.S. And in the public discourse, we are noting that, that has evolved from a broad concern about all immigrants to a more focused conversation around individual and legal violations of immigration policies in the U.S. and that really has reduced the perceived apprehensions among our customer base. So we're seeing more willingness to travel in the transborder market in the second half of the year and specifically in the fourth quarter, where we're seeing solid booking curves in the transborder market. And that brings us to the guided TRASM, which is basically at the levels of last year 2024. Just to maybe close this point off, travel in the transporter market was delayed in our opinion at the beginning of the year and is now catching up as people want to visit their friends and family in Mexico or in the U.S.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Rogério Araújo with Bank of America. Rogério Araújo: Congratulations on the results. I have a couple here on fleet. First, you said 17, one seven aircraft returned. Is that correct? And how many you expect to be delivered by '26? Also on that matter, what is the number of expected grounded aircraft throughout 2026? I understand you have 36 now. And lastly, how to think the net CapEx for '26 compared to this $250 million in '25?

Jaime Esteban Pous Fernandez

Management

This is Jaime. And Jose back into our fleet plan. And let me try to be really on a summary. Our goal next year is to reduce significantly the gap between productive and nonproductive fleet. And it has many moving pieces. I want to start with the AOGs. We see an improvement in AOGs. Remember, this year, we expect and year-to-date, we have 36 average planes. We expect that, that will improve to around 32, 33 next year with the highest point of the AOGs initially in January and significantly going down by year-end. The second [indiscernible] is, is deliver strong Airbus, we’re expecting around 12 to 13 deliveries of new aircraft from Airbus still we need to confirm that with Airbus and we will give detailed guidance in the next earnings call. And finally, with delivery, we are budgeting 17 aircraft to be redeliver. All of those details, we are planning, you should think about ASM growth next year, as Enrique mentioned and reiterated in the range of 6% to 8%, which factors all of the above that I mentioned. Compensation [indiscernible] multiyear agreement remains to 2028, but we are seeing an improvement and we are planning with the flexibility to adapt our demand to customer demand and market condition with the capitalization of flexibility in our market. And the last question was with respect to CapEx. This year guidance is still the same $250 million. Expect that next year is going to be higher than this year because we are investing in the maintenance related to engines returns and the delivery of aircraft.

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano

Management

I just want to say again, I mean, our numbers of growth for next year are all inclusive. They include the returns of the engines from Pratt, the deliveries from Airbus, replacement of aircraft from the actual fleet. They include the deliveries, they include everything, all of the above. It's included in the number. So please think about that number as a total number of growth and not the conflict with capacity into the market.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Filipe Nielsen with Citi.

Filipe Ferreira Nielsen

Analyst

Congrats on the results. My question is regarding CASM ex-fuel. You guided $0.0575 [ph]. You mentioned about the timing of having maintenance putting this a little bit higher than expected. I just wanted to understand how this should evolve? Is it a one-off in fourth quarter related to maintenance? Or is it something that will continue throughout 2026? How are you looking at this trend and not only at the quarter? Just trying to understand the cost impact here.

Jaime Esteban Pous Fernandez

Management

This is Jaime. I'm going to start with the 4Q. The sequential increase reflects the normal seasonality in specific cost lines that higher in the 4Q happened last year. It represents higher landing and navigation expenses due to the increased mix of international operations in the 4Q. We also have addition related to deliver maintenance events, which temporarily elevated unit cost are not structural impact aligned with our planned maintenance schedule. And as I mentioned, we will provide full guidance for 2026 in the next earnings calls. You are going to see a higher CAS than this year related to the investment in maintenance and delivery to have the fleet aligned with our growth plans.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jens Spiess with Morgan Stanley.

Jens Spiess

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

So on the point of groundings and being the peak at the beginning of next year and then gradually improving, by year-end, how many aircraft do you expect to be grounded? And then when do you expect groundings to reach 0? Is it by mid-'27, by the end of '27? Like what's your visibility on that?

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano

Management

Sorry, I'm going to repeat it. We expect that by year-end of 2026, the average number of AOGs will be around 25 to 27. And we believe that we are going to be with no material impact on AOGs related to engines by the end of 2027. End of 2020.

Jens Spiess

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Okay. Perfect. And if I may, just one additional one. Obviously, you already gave a lot of details on ASM growth for next year and all the variables. But clearly, you have a lot of flexibility given the redeliveries, the 17 redeliveries you have next year. So if demand is much better than expected, by how much could you potentially increase ASM growth? And conversely, if demand is weak by how much could you reduce it potentially?

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano

Management

By around 2 percentage points, either up or down.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Guilherme Mendez with JPMorgan.

Guilherme Mendes

Analyst

Just a quick follow-up. Holger, you mentioned about an overall rational supply on the market, so meaning rational competition. Just wanted to hear your thoughts on how should we think about competition in '26. There's additional capacity coming online from you and from some of your peers, if you do expect the current rational and disciplined competitive environment to remain in 2026?

Holger Blankenstein

Management

Sure. This is Holger. So we have some visibility on the domestic market. For us, in the Mexican domestic market, we are budgeting low to mid-single-digit growth for 2026. And we will provide more granularity on our growth rate in the domestic market when we provide the full year guidance in our next earnings call. If we look at the competition, we have visibility on the published schedules of our domestic competitors and industry growth is likely to remain rational from what we can see right now. And that obviously supports a higher and healthier fare environment for us. We are seeing now that competitors have been following a meaningful capacity rationalization to bring capacity in line with domestic demand. And we see that trend continuing into 2026, which will lead to a more balanced and healthy domestic supply-demand environment.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Alberto Valerio with UBS.

Alberto Valerio

Analyst · UBS.

Just a follow-up about the groundings. So you expect to normalize it in the end of 2027, 2028. Am I right about this? And about cycles, how have been the cycle of engines and also the deliveries of Airbus, when we should see some normalization on this? And if I may, another one is about one line on the results that is the variable leases come a little bit below what we were expecting, what we were estimating. Should we keep that for the future? This is more related to engines. Is that correct? If you can give some color on that?

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano

Management

As mentioned, we expect a positive trend on engines from the shops. We rescheduled with Airbus. So this year, the deliveries are quite aligned on what we plan some minor delays or not material delays. We expect that to continue next year. We have not because we schedule year-end. And we are planning accordingly with that with a lot of flexibility with the different levers that we have in our fleet plan between the deliveries of planes coming back from the shop. We are optimistic and planning around that. If you're right, we should be out of the material impact by 2027 with some minor in terms of absolute 2028. And compensation over[Indiscernible] 2028 in contrast.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Abraham Fuentes Salinas with Banco Santander.

Abraham Fuentes Salinas

Analyst · Banco Santander.

During this quarter, we see an improvement in the aircraft and engine rent expense. So I wonder if you can give us a little more color what you expect during 2026 in terms of ASM.

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano

Management

Can you repeat the question was too low.

Abraham Fuentes Salinas

Analyst · Banco Santander.

Yes, of course. We saw an improvement during this quarter in aircraft and engine rent expense. So I wonder if you can give us a little more color what to expect for 2026 measure as ASM.

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano

Management

I think the benefit in this quarter is related to the conversion of operating leases into finance leases. So that was the viable aircraft and lease line has the benefit in this quarter. As we continue next year and make decisions in the deliveries, we may explore, as we mentioned during the call in order to lower the total ownership cost of the fleet. And next year, we think that, that number should be a little below what we had this year and more aligned to 2024.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's question-and-answer session and I would like to invite management to proceed with his closing remarks. Please go ahead, sir.

Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano

Management

This is Enrique. I would like to finish the call saying that we continue to demonstrate the strength and adaptability of our ultra-low-cost carrier model and our command over our markets and cost structure. I want also to say again that regardless of the external environment, our cost leadership flexibility and the capacity to expand our product suite ensures that we address customer preference. I also want to say again that we'll continue to control growth with discipline, and that includes everything. It includes all the pieces of the question and it's fully aligned with market demand. It is also important that we will continue prioritizing low cost with high-value service to increase access to air travel for a broader set of customers, and it is important to say that we will continue with leadership in core domestic markets and a world-leading cost structure. Having said that, I would like to thank you, everybody, for being in the call, and thank you to our family of ambassadors as well as our Board of Directors, investors, partners, lessors and suppliers for their support. I look forward to speaking to you all again next year. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

This concludes the Volaris conference call today. Thank you very much for your participation, and have a nice day.