Earnings Labs

Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 5, 2015

$291.11

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Megan, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Vulcan Materials 2014 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Mr. Tom Hill, President and CEO of Vulcan Materials Company, you may begin your conference.

James Thomas Hill

Analyst

Good morning. Thank you for joining us to discuss our fourth quarter 2014 results. I'm Tom Hill, President and Chief Executive Officer of Vulcan. Joining me today is John McPherson, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial and Strategy Officer. A slide presentation will accompany this webcast. It will be posted on the company's website at the conclusion of this earnings call. Before we begin the actual results and projections, I refer you to Slide 2 of our presentation regarding forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Descriptions of these are detailed in the company's SEC reports, including our most recent report on Form 10-K. In addition, during this call, management will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measurements. You can find the reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures and other related information in our earnings release and at the end of this presentation. Before we get into details today, I'd like to speak to you about some things that are immensely important to me and our management team. We executed well in 2014, particularly in the fourth quarter, and I am proud of our people and the job they did, but we are focused on the future. When I think about the job our people will need to do in 2015, 3 words come to mind: momentum, execution and discipline. Momentum. We are seeing accelerating momentum in demand throughout our markets. Demand in the fourth quarter exceeded our expectations despite our California business being waterlogged, and recall that we are comparing against a strong fourth quarter in 2013. There is accelerating pricing momentum in many of our markets, and we are going to reap the benefits of that momentum. The momentum that we've seen thus far will carry forward through 2015 and likely…

John R. McPherson

Analyst

Thanks, Tom. In our last earnings release and call, we placed emphasis on capital allocation, particularly with a view toward putting the recent acquisitions we made in the context of our overall approach and plans. The topic of capital allocation remains, obviously, a critical area of focus for our management team. And with that in mind, I'd like to now use Slide 11 to recap our actions during 2014, update you on the transaction we closed last week and highlight the goals and options we have in front of us. As you know, in early 2014, we successfully divested of our Florida area cement and ready-mix concrete operations to Argos. Given our aggregates-focused strategy, Argos was a better owner of those assets than we were. As a reminder, our divested cement and concrete operations were among the most volatile and capital-intensive businesses in our portfolio. We remain very pleased with that transaction, and it has positioned us very well for Florida's continued recovery in construction activity. Also during 2014, we further strengthened both our balance sheet and our core profitability. Our ratio of total debt to trailing 12-month EBITDA has improved to approximately 3.3 versus 5.4 a year ago, and it should decline further with continued EBITDA growth in 2015. As Tom has noted, our core profitability, as measured by the cash gross profit we generate for each ton of aggregate shipped, improved another 9%, compounding prior year gains, and we expect it to improve further moving forward. As I'll touch on in a minute, we expect same-store shipments to grow approximately 8% in 2015, as the recovery in construction activity progresses. We are very comfortable, very comfortable with our credit position and how it is improving toward our stated investment-grade target. We spent $225 million on CapEx, excluding M&A,…

James Thomas Hill

Analyst

Thanks, John. We were pleased with our fourth quarter performance, but our eyes are on what's in front of us. Last year, we put down a solid foundation. Now we will build on it. We're going to be highly focused on superior execution of the business, price improvement, lowering cost, margin growth and capital discipline. The momentum that we found so encouraging in 2014 and that was so apparent in our fourth quarter results will only continue to grow. Along with accelerating demand growth, we're going to see accelerating momentum in our ability to secure price improvements and in our ability to continue executing on our first-class operational discipline, controlling and lowering cost. We fully recognize the importance of executing on price and operational discipline to give our shareholders a superior return on capital. And as I said earlier, we will continue to be extremely disciplined in our allocation of capital. Regardless of what the markets may do, we will stay focused on the things that we control, executing on price improvement and margin expansion. We'll also remain focused on servicing our customers so they continue to reap value from their relationships with us. Working together, we will win. I'm excited about our company and its future, and I look forward to continuing to report to you as we keep growing and succeeding in the years ahead. Now if the operator will give the required instructions, we'll be happy to respond to your questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Keith Hughes with SunTrust.

Keith B. Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst

I understood your commentary of not predicting the change in diesel, but obviously, it's in the news. I had 2 questions around that. If you could give us a rough idea in '14 how much diesel fuel you used? And then question two, if prices do stay down throughout this year, will that affect the price of aggregates in the market as the year progresses?

James Thomas Hill

Analyst

I'm sorry, would you repeat your first question?

Keith B. Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Yes, the first question, if could you could give us a rough number of how much diesel fuel you used in '14, gallons or something along those lines?

James Thomas Hill

Analyst

Total gallons we used in '14 was just over 44 million gallons.

Keith B. Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And if we see the prices down the way they are now for the rest of the year, will that have a negative effect on aggregate pricing just around the shipping cost?

James Thomas Hill

Analyst

No, it won't have any effect on pricing. We've got a lot of pricing momentum. We do not price on cost. It's market-driven in the value of our products and the services to our customers. So the price of oil won't have an impact on the price of aggregates.

John R. McPherson

Analyst

And Keith, it's John. Also, keep in mind, we report freight-adjusted pricing, so the impact of diesel on shipping cost won't show up in our freight-adjusted pricing.

Keith B. Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst

I guess what I'm getting towards is this could be clearly a big benefit for you this year, again, if it stays down. Would all that benefit accrue to the bottom line or would there be some give back, whether it's around driver cost or anything like that?

James Thomas Hill

Analyst

I don't see any place we'd give back cost savings on fuel. I think when it comes to fuel, what we concentrate on are things we can control, which is using our procurement and management systems to buy fuel at the most competitive prices we can. And then we monitor fuel usage at every location, over 300 locations. We manage the tons per gallon of fuel we use so that we make sure that our equipment -- we're operating our equipment as fuel efficiently as we possibly can.

Keith B. Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Okay. Final question on Slide 6, you have Texas as one of your really good markets here in 2014. We all know the questions around that. Can you give us any sort of scale for what Texas represents for the company?

James Thomas Hill

Analyst

Yes, first of all, we sell very little directly to the oil patch in Texas, so the immediate impacts, we're not going to see any. There is a lot of momentum in Texas, residential, nonresidential. Texas just passed Prop 1, which is an additional $1.8 billion to their highway funding, which is also right in our wheelhouse because a lot of that is focused on rural markets where we operate. We just think there's a lot of momentum there. At this point, we don't see anything happening for 2 or 3 quarters after that. I'm not sure we want to predict it, but there's a lot of folks out there predicting that.

John R. McPherson

Analyst

Quickly back to your first question on diesel and impact on aggregates pricing. Just a reminder that diesel is a relatively small portion of our total production cost, what, 7%-ish?

James Thomas Hill

Analyst

7%.

John R. McPherson

Analyst

Right. So our biggest cost in our product is the stone, the assets, the quarries we own, and we price to earn a return on that. So minor fluctuations up and down in 7% of our cost isn't going to affect our pricing strategy.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Kathryn Thompson from Thompson Research Group.

Kathryn I. Thompson - Thompson Research Group, LLC

Analyst

I appreciate your color on the 11% volume growth in -- for 2015. How much of the -- rough estimate, how much of the 180 million tons projected for next year are contributed from acquisitions?

James Thomas Hill

Analyst

I think that's -- hold on, I'll get that number for you. I believe that's about 7 -- between 7 million and 8 million tons.

John R. McPherson

Analyst

Kathryn, I'd say, without acquisitions, we'd be sort of in the 173-ish range, roughly. And where we've done bolt-on acquisitions, there's a little bit of art to what volume comes from the acquired asset versus what comes from other quarries in the same market. But roughly speaking, I'd point you back to that 8% same-store growth rate.

Kathryn I. Thompson - Thompson Research Group, LLC

Analyst

Okay, great. What is your -- you talk about return on invested capital in the earnings release. What is your bogey for return on capital? And what other mechanisms, above and beyond dividends, are on the table to return value to shareholders?

John R. McPherson

Analyst

To your first question, I don't know that we're going to give you a specific bogey. I'd underscore that our focus both now and long term is to earn a fair and full return on the full asset base, and particularly because we've made those billions of dollars of investment on behalf of our customers to serve them well. And so while we're pleased with our current results and pleased with the margin expansion and pleased with the outlook for '15, there's further to go on that, much further to go. And your second question was actions to accelerate -- what was it, Kathryn?

Kathryn I. Thompson - Thompson Research Group, LLC

Analyst

Well, what other mechanisms, above and beyond dividends, are on the table at least to return value to shareholders?

John R. McPherson

Analyst

I'm not going to specify. I don't think we're going to specify any of that. That's really a board decision. But I think we'd be open to -- and have in the past as a company, deployed several mechanisms. So we'll have to think about that, keeping the cycle in mind. But I think we're committed to accelerating that return of capital over time.

Kathryn I. Thompson - Thompson Research Group, LLC

Analyst

Back to the fundamentals, some of the volumes that were impacted by weather or other project delays, how do they stand now and how should we think about modeling them into 2015?

James Thomas Hill

Analyst

They're in our -- those volumes are in our 2015 numbers. We knew that the projects in California were going to be postponed in the third quarter, and they're included in our '15 outlook.

Kathryn I. Thompson - Thompson Research Group, LLC

Analyst

Okay, finally. And my final question, I know that you don't have a significant amount of volumes that go specifically into the oil industry or the energy industry, but have you taken a stab at quantifying your best estimate of what percentage of your volumes specifically go to the energy industry?

James Thomas Hill

Analyst

Well, as I said earlier, very little goes directly into the oil patch. We'll ship over 2 million tons to large coastal energy projects in 2015. Those jobs are underway or getting underway. They won't be postponed. There's a few jobs that have not -- there's a few projects on the coast that we're hearing rumors of delay, but they would not hit until '16 or '17 anyway.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Trey Grooms with Stephens.

Trey Grooms - Stephens Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Stephens.

Quick question on the mix impact on price. And my call dropped off for a second, so forgive me if you guys did touch on this. But is that largely behind you guys or is there any anticipation that, that could creep into 1Q or any other period for that matter?

James Thomas Hill

Analyst · Stephens.

Well, I think the mix issue was we sold big projects in -- up and down the Mississippi River and in Illinois. While those were at lower prices, they were very good volumes. I think the fourth quarter headline pricing belies the pricing momentum that we're seeing across our footprint. If you kind of step back and look at pricing in the fourth quarter on a market-by-market basis, and we look at the markets where we're seeing higher growth or the recovery is a little more mature, and I'll read these off to you. We're seeing price increases in the fourth quarter 7.8%, 6.5%, increase of 5.8%, 5.7%, 4.8%, 4.6%. Now offsetting that in some of the markets where recovery is not as far along or where we sold some big basin finds job, we've seen price increases in the fourth quarter of 2%, flat, flat, minus 1% or minus 1.4%. And that's not all bad because if you look at the margin expansion across that same footprint, we're seeing nice margin expansion in almost all of our markets. So as far as pricing going into 2015, there's a lot of -- we're confident that the conditions and the momentum is there for good price increases. I'm focused on it. I think our team is focused on it. And we're secure about our pricing outlook for '15.

Trey Grooms - Stephens Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Stephens.

Great. That's helpful, Tom. And then my second question is a lot of talk, obviously, around infrastructure funding. The President's budget proposal called for an increase there again. I think the current bill expires in May, if I'm not mistaken. What are you guys looking for? I know you guys are pretty in tune with what's going on in Washington, what's being kicked around. What are you guys looking for if you were to take a best guess on how things shake out in May? And then as we kind of look into '15, any hopes for some type of a longer-term bill?

James Thomas Hill

Analyst · Stephens.

Yes, we're seeing a lot of positive momentum for a new highway bill. Leadership of both parties stated their intention to pass a well-funded bill. The timing, that's not clear. It may be difficult to get a bill by May, but -- and we may need an extension, but Congress has shown over and over again that they're going to fund the highway program, and so extension may have to happen and -- I mean, it will. The lack of a highway bill is not going to hurt us. The highway bill is not in our outlook. It could only help us. And we think there's a reasonably good chance of getting a bill in 2015.

Trey Grooms - Stephens Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Stephens.

So then with your assumptions in guidance, I think you said public is going to be up 3% to 5%. What is the -- it sounds like you're going under the assumption there won't be a new highway bill in that, but what's driving the up 3% to 5% in a flat kind of funding environment that's in the guidance.

James Thomas Hill

Analyst · Stephens.

That's a good question. If you look at our -- we've got a number of very large jobs that we'll be supplying in '15, the Grand Parkway in Houston, 575 -- I-75/575 in Atlanta. So there are a number of very large jobs across our footprint that we started in '14 and will really kick in, in '15. But there's some other pieces of that. We've got 6 TIFIA jobs that will ship in 2015, be north of 2 million tons in '15 for those jobs. So you're starting to see the TIFIA program really mature from people talking about jobs or planning jobs to actually shipping materials on them. And then we've seen a number of state highways increase their funding. In Florida, Governor Scott announced a $10 billion highway funding bill for this coming year. Texas, as I mentioned earlier, passed Prop 1, which is an additional $1.8 billion. We've gotten more funding in Virginia. Georgia got a proposal for an increase of $1 billion. So the state funding is up on top of all of that.

John R. McPherson

Analyst · Stephens.

So Trey, one thing I'd -- just to point out on all of that is, our funding environment in our states, in our markets is not flat. When you look at the TIFIA projects, when you look at the rises in state and local funding, when you look at the rises in deployment of that funding to projects, our markets have funding increases consistent with our 3% to 5% outlook for our markets.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Bob Wetenhall with RBC Capital Markets.

Robert C. Wetenhall - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets.

First off, great quarter. That was very impressive both in terms of the revenue performance and profitability. Slide 8 caught my eye, you have a big improvement in rolling gross profit per ton on a 12-month basis. And I was hoping one of you gentlemen could kind of see the -- you posted $3.35 a ton, where can that go to in 2015 given the demand profile and the initiatives?

John R. McPherson

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets.

Well, I think we expect to see, I'd say, 2 things. We'd expect to see our incremental margin on incremental revenue, freight-adjusted revenue in our aggregate segment to remain consistent with past trend for the next year. And along with that, I think you'd see similar increases in unit profitability. I come back to the point about earning a return on capital over time. We have quite a long ways to go in terms of margin performance to tie it back to the kind of returns on capital we'd like to see. So not only do we have room in '15, I think we have room for a very long time. You can go -- on a gross profit basis next year, I think if you work through the math, I think north of $4 on a trailing 12-month basis is sort of within our sights. And that's on a gross profit basis. On a cash basis, you could see north of $5.25. Keep in mind that our current levels of profitability, as Tom mentioned, on a unit basis are higher than they've been at the past while we're still operating at a little more than half the volumes we produced in the past. And with the kind of pricing we see in front of us, with the leverage of fixed cost we see in front of us, we're very focused on improving those numbers.

Robert C. Wetenhall - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets.

Okay. That's actually what I was looking for. I just wanted to ask Tom, it seems like you have some good visibility on some heavy-tonnage jobs coming up, and I was hoping -- you already addressed kind of what you're seeing on the public side. What are your expectations for private nonresidential and private residential? And if I could just dovetail that, how confident are you in kind of the 8% same-store volume growth and the 11%? Is it more confident now than you were 12 months ago?

James Thomas Hill

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets.

I think we're very confident in our outlook. When we do these bottom-up, our guys and gals come in each quarter in each market to build that volume up. As far as -- we had a very good 2014 in non-res. Some of that driven by traditional non-res, construction of office buildings, big-box, strip malls. On top of that, we saw the bulk from the large projects along the Gulf Coast. We'll continue to see that. There's a lot of confidence out there in the marketplace, both our salespeople and our customers for non-res. And as I said earlier, we -- our shipments to the large energy projects along the coast will be higher in '15 as those projects mature than they were in '14.

John R. McPherson

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets.

Hey, Bob, as another reminder, Tom always points this out. But despite the good growth numbers over the last 6 quarters, we're nowhere near normal levels of demand or construction activity in the vast majority of our markets, nowhere near. So we both have a little bit better visibility. We've got good momentum, as you've seen in the last 6 quarters and the fourth quarter. But part of our confidence, as a reminder to folks, is we're still getting volume growth just out of recovery from a deep trough in demand. It's not predicated upon dramatic overall economic growth in the U.S. It's recovery of construction activity to things that begin to look like sustainable levels.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Garik Shmois with Longbow Research.

Garik S. Shmois - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research.

Just wondering if you could talk a little bit about how we should think about costs in the aggregate division. Kind of appreciate that diesel is a relatively small portion of the cost, but we also are aware that the sensitivity of a 10% move in diesel is pretty significant. So as we think of potentially lower diesel, think about incremental margin, at least within your guidance, that's consistent with prior trends, are there any cost offsets to the potential diesel benefit, whether it's in blasting or explosives or contracting services or any other items that we should be aware of?

James Thomas Hill

Analyst · Longbow Research.

When we do -- first of all, when we do these plans, they're from a bottom-up perspective with over 300 locations across the country, so everybody's fuel is using a different fuel cost. Embedded in that is also off-road and on-road diesel, and that mix changes. So trying to get a solid comparison for a diesel price is really tough. Now there may be some savings embedded in it, but as I said earlier, our focus will be on the things that we can control, which is how we buy it, and buying it as economically as we can, and then how we use it, with measuring tons per gallon. So there may be some embedded there, but that's really hard to define and take apart across our footprint. As far as other costs or concern, there's always different commodities we use always. They do have price increases in a number of those. I think we also have the operating leverage, but I think we'll turn in -- continue to turn in improved pricing numbers as the year progresses. And I think our folks are really doing a good job at focusing on the key drivers of cost. Now you also got to remember, we're still operating at 60-some -- a little north of 60% of our peak volumes, so we've got a lot of room to be able to optimize our operations and our cost as volumes continue to grow.

John R. McPherson

Analyst · Longbow Research.

Hey, Garik, it's John. We don't -- there's only really one area in cost where I think we see a major trend that we're wrestling with, the guys wrestling with that jumps out. It's not a direct offset to diesel per se, but repair cost remain an ongoing challenge for us, not a major thing. That's something we're working on that ties to our CapEx focus over time, but we don't see major increases, I'm calling it inflationary increases at the moment. And keep in mind, we own our major input so...

Garik S. Shmois - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow Research.

My second question is on asphalt. Your guidance implies, I think it's about a 30% increase in profitability. Your volume guidance when we look at infrastructure demand for the year, low- to mid-single digits. That's strong leverage. I was just wondering, maybe if you can provide a little bit more color on the drivers behind the asphalt profitability. Is it more margin expansion of lower liquid asphalt cost or is it in the markets that you're servicing on the asphalt side, you're seeing accelerated volume growth or I guess conversely, is it the acquisition or the asset swaps that you engaged in that's going to be driving most of the profit improvement?

James Thomas Hill

Analyst · Longbow Research.

I think that -- we do have some improvement in our existing operations. There's a little volume there and some margin expansion, but the big jump there is with our acquisitions and the swap and the asphalt operations that we acquired. I think if you look at it, the asphalt business, we're going to show a gross profit improvement of about $15 million, about $12.5 million of that is acquisitions, about $2.5 million of that is improved volume and unit margins on our existing businesses.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes the line of Ted Grace with Susquehanna.

Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division

Analyst

I was hoping to kind of focus on capital allocation and just kind of get a sense for how you'd encourage us to think about the dry powder you've got. I mean, to your point, John, you exited last year at about 5.5x leverage. This year, you'll be exiting at about 3. On our numbers, at the end of '15, you're kind of sub 2. And so I just want to kind of revisit how we should think about your targeted capital structure across the cycle, is kind of the first question.

John R. McPherson

Analyst

Let me start with where we are and then a couple of comments on the cycle. We'll probably touch on this topic more later. First, we're very comfortable with our current leverage ratio -- current amount of leverage. I think what we'd highlight is, we've taken a number of actions over the years to get ourselves in a position where we can, a little bit, do all of the above. So we can reinvest in our business as we need to, in our plant and equipment, in our asset base. We can achieve and maintain an investment-grade credit rating, which matters to us, so we have access to capital at all points of the cycle, to your question on the cycle; so that we can accelerate the return of capital to shareholders, whether that's through dividend or other mechanisms over time. So I expect you to see us have more of our cash flow each year go back to shareholders as part of the mix. And so we can still pursue prudent acquisitions and have a strong return, like you've seen us do in the last year. I think we've got ourselves in a spot, to your point on dry powder, that so long as we're prudent and cognizant of the cycle, we can do all of those things. In terms of how we think about it through the cycle, let me just say now, we're still closer to the trough of the cycle than anything that's normal. We think we've got several years of growth and margin expansion in front of us. And as we -- if we deliver a year, like you said Ted, per your model or your expectations, we're going to have a lot of options. And I think the good news is that we're going to have a lot of options. And we've worked hard to be in that position, but I think we'll have more options than, if you will, we'll have trade-offs. I think we'll be able to do, again, the right mix of all of the above.

Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And then maybe as a follow on to that, could you just talk about what the M&A pipeline looks like right now?

James Thomas Hill

Analyst

It's still healthy. There's still a lot out there, Ted, but I think the important piece of that is discipline. We have to be disciplined about what we're going to buy. We're disciplined about what we pay for it. And then as important as anything, disciplined about how we integrate it. And as quickly as we can, bring it up to the Vulcan standards of profitability and unit margins. So while there's a lot out there, we'll just have to make sure we're disciplined. I think we're pleased with our '14 acquisitions. And I think so far, we're very pleased with the integration and looking forward to their adding to our profitability in 2015.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of James Armstrong with Vertical Research Partners.

James Armstrong - Vertical Research Partners, LLC

Analyst · Vertical Research Partners.

Most of my questions have been asked, but looking into 2015, are there any regions which you're capacity constrained and utilization is higher than that average 50% to 60% you saw in 2014?

James Thomas Hill

Analyst · Vertical Research Partners.

I wish we had that problem, no. As I said earlier, we're still operating 60% than where we were at the peak. We've got a long ways to go before anywhere we consider capacity constraints.

James Armstrong - Vertical Research Partners, LLC

Analyst · Vertical Research Partners.

Okay. That helps. And then just a clarification. You paid down a lot of debt in 2014. What's your interest rate likely to be as you go -- or interest expense likely to be as you go into 2015?

John R. McPherson

Analyst · Vertical Research Partners.

I'd say roughly $160 million, but I think you should expect us to continue as a company to take a hard look at our debt portfolio and its coupon cost and its duration and those kind of things, back to Ted's questions about some of the options we have in front of us. But if you're modeling, I think about $160 million roughly of interest expense, I think, and -- which is roughly consistent with last year. Part of our debt paydown last year was a use of proceeds from the divestiture of Argos. We're now in a position where, as I said, we're very comfortable with our current level of debt and our credit standing.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Timna Tanners with Merrill Lynch.

Timna Tanners - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Merrill Lynch.

I just want to clarify one of the things that you said earlier. And I've asked you this in the past, and I just kind of want to get your take on it. When you talk about your visibility improving as the demand grows, what does that mean exactly and how far out is your visibility?

James Thomas Hill

Analyst · Merrill Lynch.

Well, I think we're looking at 2000 -- what we're really talking about is 2015. And the reason the visibility gets better is, you're starting to see -- your backlogs are solid, you have confidence of jobs in your -- of -- coming up and your contractors and your sales force. You feel the momentum, for -- like example, in residential, you're not building out subdivisions anymore. They're starting new subdivisions, which are much more aggregate-intensive. So you just get a feel for the confidence and you start to see the jobs that you have secured much larger and more numerous.

Timna Tanners - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Merrill Lynch.

Okay. And then along those lines, if we were to get some sort of action from the government regarding a way to finance and finally pass a multiyear highway spending program, is it fair to say that the real benefit would start to flow through more into 2016, 2017? How do you think about what that would look like?

James Thomas Hill

Analyst · Merrill Lynch.

I think based on the timing, that's spot on. That where the bill has to flow through, you have to get jobs ready, so I think you'd be looking at '16, '17.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Stanley Elliott with Stifel. Stanley S. Elliott - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division: Quick question, just from a timing perspective with some of the weather issues last year, should we expect the cadence of the volumes through the year to be materially different or kind of more of a normal seasonality?

James Thomas Hill

Analyst

If I could predict the weather, I'd answer that question. The first quarter and the fourth quarter are always dicey. You just never know what's going to happen. What we were talking about in the presentation was, last year, our fourth quarter had great weather. It was really strong. So we were very pleased with the performance in this year's fourth quarter versus 2013. I don't know how to answer that except for, if you look at it, we just have to base it on normal weather patterns, which would mean the first and fourth quarters are always a little dicey. Stanley S. Elliott - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division: Fair enough.

John R. McPherson

Analyst

It's John, real quick. This is not quite an answer to your question directly, but it may be a related point, which I think there's historically been a tendency as you all model quarterly results to, if you will, over-model the first quarter. And just -- I'd just remind you that first quarter results, given typically low volumes and erratic weather, can be a little more unpredictable, whether that's a question on price or cost. So I would say that people often fail to understand some of the volatility that's inherent in our first quarter.

James Thomas Hill

Analyst

Well said. Stanley S. Elliott - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division: Very helpful. But as far as the SAG cost, we'll see some nice leverage in the coming year. But outside of acquisitions or incentive comp, is there any reason to think that, that number cannot continue to be leveraged on a go-forward basis into '16 and beyond?

John R. McPherson

Analyst

No, we fully intend to leverage that number in '16 and beyond. And Tom would say exactly the same thing. And when we took a bunch of actions to reduce our SAG cost, we worked hard to do it in a way where it can be leveraged going forward, including systems investments and other things we've done. So that is our intent and focus.

James Thomas Hill

Analyst

As John likes to say, we've been through that pain, we're not going back there.

John R. McPherson

Analyst

That doesn't mean the number won't go up some. But -- obviously, if our volumes grow like we think they will, but as a percent of sales, it should decline significantly over time.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Todd Vencil with Sterne Agee. L. Todd Vencil - Sterne Agee & Leach Inc., Research Division: If I go back to your original comments, Tom, about momentum. Obviously, you are seeing momentum in volumes continue 2014 and 2015. You see a momentum in price sort of picking up 2014 and 2015. You talked about a gradual recovery lasting several more years. Can you give us some sense of whether you think as we look beyond '15, given that you don't have a crystal ball, but can you give us some sense of whether you think momentum can continue to sort of grow and rates of growth can stay at the levels they've been or even expand on price and volume?

James Thomas Hill

Analyst

As far as confidence beyond '15 and our outlook there, what gives us confidence is we're so far below the structural demand of aggregates, even with our outlook in '15. And for our country to stay healthy and strong like it is, that structural demand has to continue to grow or get back to more normalized levels. So a lot of confidence there. It's also the momentum you just see out there in all segments of the market. And yes, as far as continuing to expand margins, we plan on, as I said earlier, continuing disciplined execution of price and our operating disciplines.

John R. McPherson

Analyst

Todd, one of the focal points of our Investor Day will also be -- maybe to your question -- what's the earnings power of our business at normal demand and what are we planning to do to get there as a management team. So not to put off your question, but we will dig into it deeper when we -- in that setting. L. Todd Vencil - Sterne Agee & Leach Inc., Research Division: Sure John, you can give me a preview right now, if you wanted to. I'll let you go on that.

John R. McPherson

Analyst

I guess, I don't want to, Todd. L. Todd Vencil - Sterne Agee & Leach Inc., Research Division: Fair enough. I appreciate that answer. And thinking about the 2015 guidance, are there any -- where are the sort of points of sensitivity or push points in that where you could come out sort of above the guidance or below? Or put another way, what could happen this year to bring you in above your guidance or below it?

John R. McPherson

Analyst

I think, Todd, the official answer. One, I can't give you an answer on Investor Day early. Our guidance is our guidance. L. Todd Vencil - Sterne Agee & Leach Inc., Research Division: Okay. Fair enough

John R. McPherson

Analyst

So I think your question within that, I think I'll just refer you back to some of our comments. We haven't tried to bake all the potential benefits of lower diesel prices into our estimates because we don't know what diesel prices are going to be. So that could -- for this year, that can swing a bit, obviously, in our production cost, as it did in the fourth quarter. So that's an example, but I think you could go through a lot of things and have an example. But that's one that's kind of outside our control, if you will, that we would think about. And again, for that reason, we didn't try and bake in some assumption that we can't control into our models.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Adam Thalhimer with BB&T Capital Markets. Adam R. Thalhimer - BB&T Capital Markets, Research Division: Obviously, a lot of questions have been asked. I just wanted to ask a little bit more on the -- your gross profit per ton and the operating discipline you talked about. How much of that is volumes coming back and you guys just being prudent on adding back fixed costs? And how much of that is true productivity improvements you're making to the business?

James Thomas Hill

Analyst

I think there's a lot of that in true productivity improvements. As I said earlier, we're operating at 60% of our peak volumes, so you've got plants in some markets where we were having 2 crews run full plants, and there's just a lot of inefficiencies with that, along with a lot of fixed cost in these plants. We also need to go back and look at -- well, you can look at margin improvements, that mix, the slide that has the circles on it, it's a mix of price, of cost and then the blend of the products we're selling that give you the total -- the total maximized profitability of an operation where you make as much money as you can. And that's why we call it a local market, because just the plant manager and the salesman, they have to be there looking at their stockpiles, knowing what the market is going to have, where can they go with price, to put all that together to maximize profitability. Adam R. Thalhimer - BB&T Capital Markets, Research Division: Okay. And then I guess just a follow-up to that. I can't believe you gave as much color on incremental margins in '15, and you said it should be consistent with recent trends. Is there a point where that inherently starts to trail off, the incremental margins, either -- you've been talking about 3 years out, you'll be back to kind of normal aggregates volume, is that when you might see a trail off?

James Thomas Hill

Analyst

I think you got to go back to the fact that -- and this is -- and I keep repeating myself, but it's so important that we're still operating at 60% of our peak volume. So you got so much productive capacity that you will reap the benefits from -- as volumes go up, as far as being efficient in those operations.

John R. McPherson

Analyst

Just to clarify, by the way, I don't think we said that we think we'll reach normal volumes in 3 years. So we've got a good long ways to go, but we haven't given a prediction about that timing.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Mike Betts with Jefferies.

Michael Betts - Jefferies LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Jefferies.

Just 2 quick questions from me guys. Firstly, the SG&A going down slightly in 2015. I presume that the incentive compensation goes up again significantly, given the thought -- the increase in gross profit you're forecasting. What's bringing it down? I mean, were there some one-offs, I guess, I'm asking in 2014 or maybe a bit more explanation of what's bringing it down? And then the second and final question, assets held for sale, I noticed, were up $4 million to $5 million in the balance sheet. In your forecast for 2015, is there any assumption of higher ongoing quarry and land sales in 2015 than in 2014?

John R. McPherson

Analyst · Jefferies.

Mike, I'll take a first shot at those. First on SAG, and I'll just give you a rundown of some of the kind of things we saw in the fourth quarter. A lot of it is business development-related, more than a couple of million dollars. We had some incentive comp that was really tied to our Florida divestiture and a gain on that sale as part of our system. So that's kind of a onetime event. We had a significant land donation, another $1.5 million roughly, which ends up as an SAG cost and then down as a gain on sale of land, so it negatively affects the EBITDA. We had other costs associated with the acquisitions we made. So a lot of the things that drove SAG were not repeating themselves. Yes, the core incentive comp, we'll keep an eye on as part of the overall business mix. But much of the factors driving the $8 million variance in Q4 and really the variance for the full year had to do with one-off or nonrecurring items. On your question about assets held for sale, I believe the answer, if you're looking at the same part of the balance sheet I am, is that those were held for -- that was the CEMEX swap. And that we knew we were working on that transaction, expected to conclude it. We concluded it in January. So at the time of the balance sheet, we were holding those assets for sale. Rough fair value associated with the asset swap for both sides was about $20 million, just to give you a sense of the size of the transaction, no cash involved.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

Jerry David Revich - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

I'm wondering if you gentlemen can talk about the cadence of pricing over the course of the year. You're exiting at 4%, guidance at 6%, can you get to that 6% in March, beginning of the construction season, or you're anticipating an acceleration over the course of the year?

James Thomas Hill

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Thank you. That's an insightful question. When you finish the year, outlook as an average of 6%, that will take some time to flow through. Normal cadence with that is to be a little lower in the first quarter and grow as the year goes along, and that's what we would expect.

Jerry David Revich - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Okay. And in terms of just the additional price increases over the course of '15, can you talk about how many markets you'll be pushing pricing multiple times in '15 versus how many markets in '14 you were able to do that?

James Thomas Hill

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

I'm not sure of that. We will push price in every market that we have and work on it hard. Normally, every market is different as far as timing and amount. Normal cycle with that is January/April in a lot of markets, but some you'll have midyear, and some you have in October. So it's really all over the place, but we'll work on it in every market that we're in.

Jerry David Revich - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Okay. And then just following up to Ted's question, just related to the M&A pipeline. Any opportunities that you see for potentially meaningful asset swaps or how, I guess, intense are those discussions? Or was comment earlier, Tom, the fact that you'd like to see more of those? Just trying to gauge, trying to read your prior comment.

James Thomas Hill

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Well, I think what I was saying was that the pipeline has a lot of acquisitions in it, which we'll obviously have to be disciplined with. I don't know of any -- that I would be prepared to talk about any potential swaps out there. But again, we have to be picky about that. We have to be disciplined and be able to integrate them.

John R. McPherson

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Let me underscore, as we think about capital allocation discipline, it's not all about acquisitions, it's also sometimes about divestitures and swaps. And I think it's an important thing for the industry to stay focused on.

Operator

Operator

And there are no more questions at this time.

James Thomas Hill

Analyst

Well, thank you for your questions. Thank you for your interest in Vulcan Materials. We look forward to speaking to you at our next call and many of you at our upcoming Investor Day. Have a good day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.