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Verisk Analytics, Inc. (VRSK)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 25, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Verisk Analytics Fourth Quarter 2014 Earnings Results Conference Call. This call is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Verisk's SVP and Treasurer, Ms. Eva Huston. Ms. Huston, please go ahead.

Eva F. Huston - Senior Vice President, Treasurer and Chief Knowledge Officer

Management

Thank you, Shannon, and good morning to everyone. We appreciate you joining us today for a discussion of our fourth quarter 2014 financial results. With me on the call this morning are Scott Stephenson, President and Chief Executive Officer and Mark Anquillare, Chief Financial Officer. Following comments by Scott and Mark highlighting some key points about our strategic priorities and financial performance, we will open up the call for your questions. All numbers we discussed today, unless otherwise stated, will reflect continuing operations and exclude the results from Interthinx. Interthinx is shown in discontinued operations reflecting the sale of the business in March 2014. The earnings release referenced on this call as well as the associated 10-K can be found in the Investors section of our website, verisk.com. The earnings release has also been attached to an 8-K, which we have furnished to the SEC. A replay of this call will be available for 30 days, until March 26, 2015, on our website and by dial-in. Finally, as set forth in more detail in today's earnings release, I will remind everybody that today's call may include forward-looking statements about Verisk's future performance. Actual performance could differ materially from what is suggested by our comments today. Information about the factors that could affect future performance is contained in our recent SEC filings. Now I will turn the call over to Scott Stephenson. Scott G. Stephenson - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Eva, and good morning, everyone. We're very pleased with the results we reported last night with outstanding revenue growth and strong operating discipline. In the fourth quarter, we delivered excellent results with total revenue growth of about 12% and an increase in diluted adjusted EPS of about 18%. Full year revenue and diluted adjusted EPS both grew about…

Eva F. Huston - Senior Vice President, Treasurer and Chief Knowledge Officer

Management

Thanks, Mark. We appreciate all the interest in Verisk. Given the large number of analysts we have covering us, we ask that you limit your questions to one question and one follow-up. This will give more people an opportunity to ask their questions. And with that, I'll ask the operator to open up the line.

Operator

Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Tim McHugh from William Blair and Company. Your line is now open. Tim J. McHugh - William Blair & Co. LLC: Yes. Thanks. I guess the first question just on the margins, and I guess as we think towards next year, if I adjust for the new revenue presentation for healthcare I guess, my quick math, which could be wrong, tells me that's about a 90 basis point boost to the margin just because that's pass-through revenue. And then there's another 60 basis points from stripping out the professional fees in restructuring. So between those two that puts you above the 45% to 47% range, I guess. You've talked about being within. Is that still the range, then, that we should we think about next year, or are there factors offsetting it that the underlying margins would be coming down? Mark V. Anquillare - Group Executive, Risk Assessment, Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: So, Tim, thanks for the question. I think your math is good. To the extent you think about the FTC costs, which we do agree are onetime, and the nature of the change in accounting, the 90 bps is about right in both cases. I'll continue to just to highlight that we have a high degree of good feelings about the business into 2015, especially around margin performance. We think that we have scale in all of those businesses. What we continue to, obviously, balance is the investment in the business to make sure that we grow into the future. So our view is, we're feeling very positive about where margins should be anticipated in 2015, moderated by what I would say is some overlap in investment. The other thing I'll highlight to the team, I think…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik from Barclays. Your line is now open.

Manav Shiv Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Management

Yeah. Thank you. Good morning, guys. So just to follow up on the healthcare, like thinking longer term, one of your competitors obviously just went public and they've thrown out long-term targets of 20%-plus with some mid-30%s margins and so forth. I was just curious if you guys could provide us any color. I know anecdotally you guys are very positive on the space, but just trying to get a sense of how we should think about this over the next, call it, five years. Scott G. Stephenson - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, our mix is by degrees different from theirs. And so we're certainly interested in an (24:14) company with whom we compete in some categories. But our reference point is really us and the solutions that we've got and the customers that we're serving. And this is one of the places inside of Verisk where, as we've said in the past, we've actually got secular tailwinds in the form of just kind of the underlying demand in the market, and it causes us to feel good about where we sit. We have strengthened the business operationally and expect to continue to do that. So it's a positive outlook for us inside of the healthcare space.

Manav Shiv Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Management

Okay. Fair enough. And then just on your M&A pipeline, so for a couple of years, I guess, we've heard you talk about a very active M&A pipeline and maybe the last year, the pending EVT deals that have held you guys back. But what's the roadblock or what's the delay in terms of executing some of these deals that you have in your pipeline? Scott G. Stephenson - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, maybe other than sort of the obvious one about the FTC process last year. I wouldn't call it a road block, but I would describe us as a very thoughtful acquirer. There are any number of transactions that we could have closed over the course of the last 12 months to 18 months, some of which you actually would have heard about if you observed the space around us where, just based upon our sense of valuation versus the sellers' ambitions, we were definitely positioned to buy businesses, but for valuation considerations chose not to. So we don't actually feel constrained and are leaning very heavily into the M&A agenda.

Manav Shiv Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Management

Okay. Thanks a lot, guys. Congrats on the quarter. Scott G. Stephenson - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you. Mark V. Anquillare - Group Executive, Risk Assessment, Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Joseph Foresi from Janney Montgomery. Your line is now open.

Joseph D. Foresi - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC

Management

Hi. I was wondering, could we dig a little deeper as to why the change in the accounting methodology and what opportunities it either opens or changes from a demand perspective in the healthcare business? Scott G. Stephenson - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. So just to go back to fundamentally why we're making this change, our customers in the context of the Accountable (sic) [Affordable] Care Act, are being measured and managed on their medical loss ratios. And they need to make sure that they don't fall below levels that the government has identified as the benchmark. So what they're interested to do is to have as many costs reflected in the expense line, which is the numerator of the calculation. One of those expenses that our customers would like to have in that numerator is the cost of prospective health assessments, and that's the product line that Mark was describing. In order for us to provide the service and book the gross revenue, we would have to have – we would have to be treated as if we were a provider. We would have to have a provider ID. We're not interested in being that. We're not interested in having the liability associated with being a provider. So all we've done is we've said that the pass-through revenue associated with that service, we're just not going to book as revenue anymore. Otherwise, we're still providing the service just as much as we did before. We're simply changing the way that we account for it, and that is the only change. And it really has zero interaction with our business going forward.

Joseph D. Foresi - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC

Management

Got it. That's very helpful. And then on the insurance business, maybe you could talk a little bit about what you're seeing from an underlining demand trends. I know that there's been no correlation between premium movements. But how do you feel about that, and how long does it take, you think, to create that imagery business as opposed to the acquisition? Thanks. Scott G. Stephenson - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. Okay. So let me – two very different questions, both good questions. So the insurance market has its ebbs and its flows. We're in a place right now where it certainly is not growing at high rates. It cycles around a little bit, but as we've often described, our opportunity is really based on the amount of value that we can create for our customers, the amount of innovation we can put into existing and new solutions. And so our situation is very similar to what it has always been, which is we love the insurance market and our customers. It's a steady market, which is of course what we all look to insurance for, and our performance is going to be a function of the innovation and value that we can bring. On the Aerial Imagery front, I just really want to emphasize two things that I hope are clear, but just to make sure. The first one is we've got fully dimensioned analytics already; the analytics are already built. And the second is that we have a set of images that cover the entire country. So we're all dressed up and ready to go. The ongoing issue with respect to imagery is that we would like to see the quality of the images improved and, in fact, that was part of the thought process around EVT was that we would start with their library but improve it. We're now discussing multiple additional ways that we could go about doing that, and we will inform you when we have chosen which of those paths we're going to go down. But we feel very good about where we sit, and we feel very bullish about the business going forward.

Joseph D. Foresi - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from line of Toni Kaplan of Morgan Stanley. Your line in now open. Toni M. Kaplan - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Hi. Thanks for taking my question. So in healthcare, just conceptually, how should we think about the trajectory of healthcare growth rates in 2015 given seasonality but also given the fact that the comps are easier in the first half of the year? Mark V. Anquillare - Group Executive, Risk Assessment, Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Toni, so I just want to try to catch the question. Very similar to what we've talked in the past, from a seasonal perspective, the suites (30:32) regarding Medicare Advantage and the work that we do with RQI is second-half weighted. So we have talked about 60% at the end of the second half, 40% in the first. And I think you'll see that same type of ramp as we progress through the year. If your question is a little broader kind of to the one we had earlier, I think I'll kind of reinforce Scott's position. I think we're feeling good about the business as a whole. I think we're feeling good about healthcare. And one of the things I think you probably noted in the way we described the growth, RQI, which is more transactional, has been strong but so is the payment accuracy side of the business which is a fundamental fraud fighting kind of expertise that we have and we felt good about that. Final element or final component from the healthcare perspective, population management is the rage right now. Everyone's trying to find ways to better consume healthcare and probably get better outcomes for less cost. And that trend, that interest, I think will continue to spur our Enterprise Analytics business.…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Steinerman of JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Andrew Charles Steinerman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Hi. I want to talk a little bit about the Risk Assessment business, which accelerated in the fourth quarter. I remember third quarter commentary about some shift in annualizing or annualize contracts with reinsurance customers. It seems like somehow we've overcome that. So could you talk about how we accelerated in the fourth quarter, and given that 2015 invoices are out now, will the fourth quarter trajectory foray continue into 2015? Mark V. Anquillare - Group Executive, Risk Assessment, Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thanks, Andrew. Let me take that. This is Mark. First of all, I think we had a strong year from Risk Assessment. I think we have fundamentals in the businesses are as strong as ever and the position we have is strong as ever. A couple things to highlight if I think about the fourth quarter. First of all, some of our content is actually licensed through vendors, and that revenue is strong. It's been a component of a license and there's some royalties. So we saw some pickup there, so that's good news and hopefully that will continue into 2015. And I think I've highlighted some other elements of Risk Assessment. We've talked about Risk Analyzer, which is our predicted modeling. We've moved from very much focused on personal auto but into homeowners as well as into the commercial line space and that has been up – the uptake there has been very strong and very good. We've had some good news around what is our electronic rating content. That's the way we take our loss cost and our rules and embed it deeply into our customers' workflows. And finally even Workers' Comp, which we haven't talked a lot about, had some good legs in the quarter and we think will continue. So those are the features of the fourth quarter, which I think will bode well into 2015. And I think to answer the second part of your question, at this point you referenced about invoices; you're right there out. And I think we've done what we've consistently tried to do. We've tried to deliver value to our customers, reflect that in the invoices. At this point in time, though, you have to remember that more than 50% of the way we're contracted with customers, it really is about longer-term contracts now that they're committed to, they're multiple year. So it's not as much annual recalculations. And I think we're going to see a consistent growth reflecting the value we provide. Scott G. Stephenson - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I'll just add those multi-year contracts Mark was referencing, they always increase year – they always carry year-over-year price escalators.

Andrew Charles Steinerman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Perfect. Thanks, guys. Mark V. Anquillare - Group Executive, Risk Assessment, Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Togut of Evercore. Your line is open.

David Mark Togut - Evercore Partners, Inc.

Broker

Thanks. You saw a very nice acceleration in organic revenue growth in the quarter to 11% from what had really been trend line organic growth in the high single digits over the last couple years or so. So my question really is, are the drivers of the higher growth rate more specific to the fourth quarter, or are you generally seeing an improving demand trend that might support more of a low double-digit-type organic growth rate going forward? Scott G. Stephenson - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, of course, what we do is extremely broadly based; we're in multiple verticals, et cetera. So I don't think there's one answer really to your question. I would say that the demand factors across the vertical markets that we serve are, at least, as strong as they have been. So if you think of that as foundational, I would say at least as strong as they have been in the recent and intermediate past. And as is always the case with our company, in 2014, including in the fourth quarter, we found ways based upon value to grow our business at a rate which was greater than that of our customers and the underlying markets and we believe that that dynamic will continue to apply in 2015. And we have definitely been doing a lot of investing into the business to try to create new solutions, to try to re-platform existing solutions. All of these things are pro-growth, and we are definitely focused on the organic growth of our business.

David Mark Togut - Evercore Partners, Inc.

Broker

I appreciate that. Just as a quick follow-up, you saw a nice acceleration in growth in financial services in the quarter; I think Mark called out some project-specific work behind that. But are there other factors that might support a more sustained higher growth like what we saw in the fourth quarter? Mark V. Anquillare - Group Executive, Risk Assessment, Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: So thanks for the question. I think what we've seen inside of the financial services category is really the fundamentals of the business where we've been able to actually take that product and extend it internationally has helped. And that's progress, and I think that's something that we'll continue to see in 2015. The other thing that is a little bit more project work, I don't want to suggest that's a big, big number, but that is a typical kind of bit of a surge at year end where people and customers have some dollars to spend and they try to get their money's worth at year end. So I wouldn't necessarily annualize that base. But the underlying fundamentals internationally is very good. And the other thing that I will highlight is the world of marketing and advertising effectiveness, which is a way to go about helping advertisers understand how good and how effective their advertising is based upon the consumer and the spend is a very big category for us, and that continues to grow nicely and will have legs into 2015.

David Mark Togut - Evercore Partners, Inc.

Broker

Understood. Thanks so much. Mark V. Anquillare - Group Executive, Risk Assessment, Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Anj Singh of Credit Suisse. Your line is open. Anjaneya K. Singh - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. So earlier in the call, you had referenced growth in Medicare Advantage. I'm just trying to balance that with some forecasts that we've seen indicate that growth may inflect negative in the coming years. Just wondering how you think about the impact from that. Is there any risk to the healthcare category's growth, or is it safe to say that demand for the analytics within that space should easily offset that? Scott G. Stephenson - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. We don't see kind of what you're hypothesizing there. We don't actually see that. The long-term factor inside of Medicare Advantage is an aging population and a preference for the Medicare Advantage product. So I'm not quite sure whose projection you're referencing. First, the most recent look at growth in the enroll populations was actually very strong, high single-digits. So between that and our own work, to make what we do valuable for our customers, we feel good about the environment. Anjaneya K. Singh - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Got it. Yeah, it's the CMS Office of the Actuary that I believe has those forecasts a little bit further out showing that the growth there dips. But I guess moving onto my next question. I'm wondering if you can discuss the head count reductions in Decision Analytics during the fourth quarter. Can you tell us which category this was attributable to? Is there more room for efficiency there and, perhaps, how you think about your SG&A going forward in light of it being remarkably flat the past few years. Scott G. Stephenson -…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of James Friedman from SIG. Your line is open.

James Friedman - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Management

Great way to end the year, guys. I had a couple of questions, so I guess I'll ask them upfront. So, Mark, you had mentioned project-related work in financial service. I think we've become more accustomed to seeing that in insurance DA. Anything to call out there? And then the other one is, Scott, relative to DART and Maplecroft, as we're trying to figure out the contribution for 2015, I realize you gave an organic for the fourth quarter. Did those deals close early or late in the quarter so we can try and annualize those? Thank you. Scott G. Stephenson - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Why don't you take the first question, Mark, and I'll take the second. Mark V. Anquillare - Group Executive, Risk Assessment, Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: So from a project-related work, the things that typically come to mind both in our cat modeling category and what we refer to as the loss quantification, which is Xactware, sometimes there's work that's done on behalf of a customer to more deeply integrate the models into their environments. Obviously, cat bonds is the other element. Although these are big, sometimes they do flux into fourth quarter. I don't think there was anything to call out in the fourth quarter inside the insurance category. It was probably a little bit more than other quarters, but nothing unusual. Scott G. Stephenson - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: And to your question, DART closed in November and Maplecroft closed in December.

James Friedman - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Management

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andre Benjamin from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Andre Benjamin - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Thanks. Good morning. Two questions, one on energy, one on healthcare. First on energy, I know you said you're going to be measured in your comments, but I know at that time you bought EagleView, you were pretty clear you thought they were a very strong competitor. Now they're going to remain a competitor. So I was just wondering how we should think about how you're thinking about competing, how aggressively you're willing to spend to become a leader, and whether we should characterize imagery as remaining at the top of your priority list that you're going to pursue aggressively or if that's kind of overstating its importance relative to the whole business? Scott G. Stephenson - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Imagery is a high priority for us, and we believe that imagery will play a number of roles inside of Verisk. So the first order role is the existing product set, which is using images in the process of responding to property claims. The next most important use will be as it relates to a higher degree of automation in the underwriting process, where imagery will play a role in that. And beyond that, we think that the interpretation of images, whether they're taken from 50 miles above the Earth or a couple thousand feet above the Earth or a couple hundred feet above the Earth from a drone, all of those need to be brought together into a kind of one unified way of dealing with imagery so that you get to the best solution at the lowest cost. EagleView plays at one of those levels today, primarily. We intend to play…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Warmington from Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.

William Arthur Warmington - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Management

Good morning, everyone. Scott G. Stephenson - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning. Mark V. Anquillare - Group Executive, Risk Assessment, Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hey, Bill.

William Arthur Warmington - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Management

So I've got a question for you about what impact, if any, you think the severe weather in the Northeast potentially has on some different parts of your business, it seems like, near term, potentially you have some benefit from Xactware and XactContents from a transaction piece there. But could it also be impacting cat modeling demand and possibly even premium growth for the coming years? Scott G. Stephenson - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So I think you answered your own question. I mean...

William Arthur Warmington - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Management

Does that make sense though? Scott G. Stephenson - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, definitely. Those are the places where our business actually responds to events. Now that said, in the course of the year, there are lots of natural events, natural – and I'm trying not to say catastrophe. There's a lot of claims that are not related to catastrophes, and so the overall claims volume is going to be a function of not just one event, but a whole lot of events, some larger, some smaller, some that relate more to flooding, some that relate more to atmospherically driven events. So I would encourage you not to get overly focused and think that there's some enormous surge based on any one event. But it is the case that when there are more property claims, there's more call upon the Xactware platform. We have, by the way, in that business, we've worked to have a balance between committed subscriptions and transaction-based revenues. And, in fact, the mix has shifted more towards the committed volume side so that dampens the effect somewhat. Definitely it's the case that everybody gets more sensitized to the need for good modeling when there are large-scale events that go on and, yeah, rates generally tend to harden when there's more claims. So I think you did identify the cause-and-effect levers that are in there. Again, I would just say any one event or any one moment in the course of the year, don't overweigh it too much because there are a lot of different ways that there is damage to property and claims are being filed.

William Arthur Warmington - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Management

Excellent. Thank you very much. Scott G. Stephenson - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Welcome.

Operator

Operator

. Your next question comes from the line of Oscar Turner of SunTrust. Your line is now open.

Oscar Turner - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

Management

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Scott G. Stephenson - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: You're welcome.

Oscar Turner - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

Management

I know you mentioned in the past that you continue to balance returns of capital versus M&A. Just wondering, can we expect returns of capital of a similar magnitude to the $500 million ASR in the future, or should this be viewed as a one-time in nature just given the EagleView? Scott G. Stephenson - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: It's one-time. I mean, we had earmarked capital for a $650 million acquisition, which we were in pursuit of for about a year. And we felt that when it was clear that for the reasons I stated earlier, we weren't going to do the transaction, that the responsible thing to do where our shareholder were concerned was to return the capital to them. It doesn't infringe our opportunity to do M&A in the future. But at the same time, we felt that it was a responsible move at a particular moment in time but definitely in response to the one-time event of the EVT transaction. Mark V. Anquillare - Group Executive, Risk Assessment, Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: I'll highlight...

Oscar Turner - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

Management

Okay. Mark V. Anquillare - Group Executive, Risk Assessment, Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: I think we've always said we have a preferenced investor in our business and we always balance between acquisitions and then share repurchases, and this was just the right time given market conditions.

Oscar Turner - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

Management

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

As there are no further questions on the phone lines at this time, I would now turn the call back to Mr. Scott Stephenson. Scott G. Stephenson - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank You. We appreciate everybody joining us here for our Fourth Quarter 2014 Earnings Call. I appreciate your interest. And we look forward to seeing many of you at Investor Day next week, and of course we'll speak to you next quarter. Thanks for your time today.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.