Earnings Labs

Vistra Corp. (VST)

Q1 2019 Earnings Call· Fri, May 3, 2019

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day. My name is Jack and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Vistra Energy First Quarter 2019 Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. Thank you. Molly Sorg, Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

Molly Sorg

Analyst

Thank you and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Vistra Energy's investor webcast covering first quarter 2019 results which is being broadcast live from the Investor Relations section of our website at www.vistraenergy.com. Also available on our website are a copy of today's investor presentation, our 10-Q, and the related earnings release. Joining me for today's call are Curt Morgan, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bill Holden, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We have few additional senior executives in the room to address questions in the second part of today's call as necessary. Before we begin our presentation, I encourage all listeners to review the Safe Harbor statements included on Slides 2 and 3 in the investor presentation on our website, which explain the risks of forward-looking statements, the limitations of certain industry and market data included in the presentation, and the use of non-GAAP financial measures. Today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements, which are based on assumptions we believe to be reasonable only as of today's date. Such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied. Further, our earnings release, slide presentation, and discussions on this call will include certain non-GAAP financial measures. For such measures, reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are in the earnings release and in the Appendix to the investor presentation. I will now turn the call over to Curt Morgan to kick off our discussion.

Curt Morgan

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

Thank you, Molly, and good morning, to everyone on the call. As always, we appreciate your interest in Vistra Energy. As you can see on Slide 6, Vistra finished the first quarter of 2019 reporting adjusted EBITDA from its ongoing operations of $815 million. Results are above consensus and in line with management's expectations for the quarter. Notably when compared to first quarter 2018 pro forma results for the merged Vistra and Dynergy entities, we finished the quarter nearly $240 million ahead of last year, primarily as a result of favorable realized wholesale prices in 2019, higher retail margins, and the realization of merger synergy and OP cost savings consistent with the estimated $565 million of annual EBITDA value levers we have announced. We also remain on track to capture the $310 million of additional after-tax free cash flow value levers from the merger which are bolstering our free cash flow generation and conversion percentage from EBITDA. On a smaller scale but equally important in advancing Vistra's operational and earnings diversity, we continue to expect we will be able to close the Crius Energy acquisition in the second quarter. At this point, the Department of Justice Review has expired and the Crius unitholders overwhelmingly voted to approve the acquisition at their special meeting held on March 28. We are still awaiting approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission which we expect we could receive at any time in the coming weeks. We expect we will close the acquisition within five business days of receiving FERC approval. And we look forward to quickly integrating the Crius portfolio into our existing integrated platform. We have been working effectively with the Crius team on transition and integration and continue to be confident in the value of their retail portfolio. Turning now to Slide…

Bill Holden

Analyst

Thank you, Curt. Turning now to Slide 11. Vistra delivered first quarter 2019 adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations of $815 million with both the retail and wholesale business units delivering results that were in line with management expectations for the quarter. Retail reported solid adjusted EBITDA for the quarter as a result of strong cost management and operational performance. The generation segments also collectively finished the quarter in line with management expectations as March weather drove favorable results in ERCOT for the quarter offsetting headwinds from a mild winter in PJM and New England. These results underscore the value of Vistra's diversified business operations which can mitigate earnings volatility from external factors such as weather or regulatory changes supporting Vistra's ability to deliver stable EBITDA across periods. Both segment results from this quarter can be found on Slide 15 in the Appendix. Also in the Appendix Slides 21 and 22 include our updated hedge positions for all markets in 2019 and 2020 reflecting an increase in hedges over the first quarter. Our commercial team continues to take advantage of the volatility and forward curves that incrementally hedge at prices that we perceive to be attractive. This hedging activity further supports our expected ability to generate relatively stable EBITDA over time. Before I move off of this slide, I also want to highlight the meaningful increase in Vistra's first quarter 2019 results as compared to the adjusted EBITDA of the pro forma merge Vistra and Dynegy entities in the first quarter of 2018. 2019 results were nearly $240 million higher as a result of favorable realized prices in 2019, higher retail gross margins, and the realization of merger value levers that continue to create value for our shareholders. Finally, let's turn to Slide 12 for the quarterly capital structure update. Vistra's long-term debt outstanding as of March 31 remained at approximately $11.1 billion. We are still forecasting we'll repay approximately $800 million of senior notes in 2019 as we work toward achieving our long-term leverage target of approximately 2.5 times net debt to EBITDA by year-end 2020. We will also continue to opportunistically optimize our balance sheet through refinancing transactions in the future and we are continuing to allocate capital towards opportunistic share repurchases under our previously announced share repurchase program. We also paid our first quarterly dividend in March and announced a tuck-in retail growth acquisition in February with the planned acquisition of Crius, a transaction we expect we'll be able to close in the second quarter. Our meaningful free cash flow generation is supporting this diverse capital allocation plan which we believe will continue to attract interest from new long-only investors in our stock. We have been receiving great feedback on our business model and as you know, we take input from our debt and equity holders very seriously. In the meantime, we look forward to focusing on execution and delivering on our commitments in 2019. With that, operator, we're now ready to open the lines for questions.

Operator

Operator

Certainly. [Operator Instructions]. Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Your line is open.

Shahriar Pourreza

Analyst

So just on MISO to start-off a couple of questions here. So it sounds like Curt, you remain confident that when the legislative session Illinois ends at the end of the month, we should see a positive outcome with the Coal to Solar Act. So the two gigawatts that would retire under the MPS agreement should obviously the Pollution Board accepted, how and when could we sort of see an OPI update in the context of your accretion guidance, you just highlighted. Is it sort of a fourth quarter driver or could we see visibility sooner?

Curt Morgan

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

And so lot of things in that. Number one, I will never predict the outcome of a legislative session in particular in my home state of Illinois. So I would say this sure that I actually think it's probably less than 50% that will get energy legislation in this session. I think we're in May the session ends within a month and I think things happen really quick with legislation in the state legislatures. But I would handicap it less than 50%. But in Illinois, they have the VETO session which is in November and I do think there is a higher probability that something gets done on energy with a new Governor and he's got other priorities. I just don't know that we'll see legislation on energy which is not in the top three or four priorities of the state. I'm not sure we'll get it done in this legislative session but I think ultimately in the VETO session, we have a reasonable chance. I mean it's hard to predict any kind of legislation. I think this one makes a lot of sense because we're cycling out coal and in the State of Illinois, I think that's really what the state and the citizens want to see. But we're also bridging the gap for downstate markets where many of these plants are very small communities that need property tax base and so it allows for a rotation of that property tax base. And it's also in an orderly fashion where we make sure that the electricity market doesn't get shocked quickly with a significant amount of retirements and prices rise quickly. So I think there's an opportunity there. With regard to this OPI and the interrelationship that that has with the overall MISO profitability, the way we see this is that we can either achieve OPI results which are with some of these assets or we into the extent that the OPI is not enough to reduce the negative EBITDA and the negative free cash flow to a positive situation then we will retire those plants either way, if there will be a significant EBITDA improvement, I think we gave those numbers that's $50 million to $100 million. And then the last part of your question, I think is around just generally the OP update. I think that is more of a probably a third quarter earnings call timing that we would probably talk about whether there is an increase, a further increase in our OP efforts. I think things are going well and so but we're not prepared yet. As I told you guys before, we want to prove this stuff up before we come out with it. And I think we need between now and sort of the third quarter call to get that done. So I think I hope those answer all your questions.

Shahriar Pourreza

Analyst

No, that's perfect. And then just on around ERCOT, obviously thanks for the incremental thoughts around the dynamics down there and there's obviously been some better arguments and obviously it was somewhat of a healthy print for the quarter. So to what degree was the impact in the quarter from like sort of what you saw with the early March cold snap or additional sort of run times at a Dayton or West Hub peakers with access to cheap law.

Curt Morgan

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

Yes. So I think most of it was really March and that was really predominantly where the strength of the quarter, we did have a good quarter. So I look at it like an NBA basketball game. I mean you can look at first quarter but you'd better show up in the fourth quarter and you're never going to know who is going to win until you get there. But we like what we did in this quarter. But I think it was really in ERCOT, it was a March -- it was a March driven quarter for us really.

Shahriar Pourreza

Analyst

Got it. And then just lastly on the capital allocation, $700 million is less than the buyback. You've got a very healthy dividend that's in place now. You kind of alluded to how you're thinking about capital allocation 2.0 you did obviously highlight given where the stock trades incremental buybacks are obviously that are out there. How are you sort of thinking about potentially additional retail deals and when do you sort of plan to update on a new phase of your capital allocation strategy?

Curt Morgan

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

So, good question. On retail, I think we are optimistic obviously, we'll close relatively soon in Crius, I think I've said this before. That was the one acquisition that we wanted to do. And when Crius came in play, we wanted to make that happen. We were able to do that and it does advance us significantly in these retail markets outside of Texas also helps us in Texas too. But I wouldn't expect anything in particular in 2019 around any kind of retail acquisition. What I think we're really focused on is we have the retail expansion strategy that we talked about before which was an organic strategy. And I think we're going to be focused given that we now have this catalyst in Crius to accelerate that expansion opportunity, we think it's a very good base to do that. So I wouldn't -- I don't know that we'll see really any kind of deployment in the acquisitions for retail in 2019. It's hard for me to say beyond 2019 though when we get into 2020 or 2021 on retail because it is an area, we'd like to grow. And so if there was an opportunity that suit our fancy, we would take a hard look at it. I think both retail and renewables are the areas where you could see the company expand through investment. And but I don't know that there's any in both of those categories; there's anything big on the forefront. I think this is going to be done more on a bit-by-bit basis for right now. And in particular given that 2019 is really -- we really have earmarked what we're going to do with the cash in 2019 later this year, we're going to obviously pay down a lot of debt we need…

Operator

Operator

Abe Azar with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Abe Azar

Analyst

Good morning. Thank you.

Curt Morgan

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

Hey, Abe.

Abe Azar

Analyst

Hey. So your estimates for the first reform in PJM is well below numbers, we've heard elsewhere. How much of that is due to the revisions that FERC kind of required versus initial expectations from others being too high?

Curt Morgan

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

I think it's a fair amount of what the ultimate order came out to be. I don't -- when we had done the work previously, our numbers were not that far off. We were probably a little bit shy of what others were saying but we were in that general ballpark. I think it's really our interpretation of the order and the impact of the order which was the big reason why it's different than what the other estimates that are out there.

Abe Azar

Analyst

Got it. Thanks for that. And then do you have any updates on potential non-core asset divestitures and could that be avenue to return to more capital?

Curt Morgan

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

Yes, good question on that front. So look we -- I guess I talk about it now. I mean we took a look at it and the market just wasn't there. We don't feel like we have a gun at the head in terms of generating additional cash that we weren't going to do a dilutive deal. And that's kind of what we were faced with. And I don't really want to get into what assets we were looking at because that's can be disruptive to the workforce and all kinds of things. But we took a look out there. We're always constantly be in the market assessing where the market is and whether there are what I'd call "non-strategic assets" that we could part with, if somebody is willing to pay more than we think they're worth. But we didn't get to the finish line where we felt like the deal was sufficient enough for us to pull the trigger. And so we felt like we'd rather run these assets than to do something that was dilutive and just not economic from our standpoint. But we're always open to if there is a better use of capital and if somebody thinks that something that we own currently is worth more in their hands, we're all ears and we will test the market from time-to-time.

Abe Azar

Analyst

Got it. That makes sense. And then just a small clarification on Illinois, the $50 million to $100 million, I believe that was an EBITDA number, is that corresponding free cash flow impact as well with the maintenance capital?

Curt Morgan

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

On the free cash flow, hang on let me just a second. Sara, you are going to say?

Sara Graziano

Analyst

I think they were not eligible for capitalization without the cash flows.

Bill Holden

Analyst

Right, right.

Curt Morgan

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

Yes, that’s what I was going to say. Okay, thank you. I'm glad I didn't say any stupid. I think they're one and the same because the way it works because these assets we've brought them over we did not capitalize them because they had no real ongoing value. Everything we spend on those assets, say, it goes to expense. We don't capitalize anything with regard to the MISO assets. So the EBITDA and the free cash flow numbers are the same.

Operator

Operator

Greg Gordon with Evercore. Your line is open.

Greg Gordon

Analyst

Thanks, good morning guys. Sorry to beat a dead horse here but I just want to be clear that I don't conflate the two different opportunities you're seeking in MISO, just resolving the multi-pollutant standard amendment issue either through getting it and being able to optimize the fleet or not getting it and closing those units equates to about $50 million to $100 million or is it both of them together, the coal to solar and the multiple?

Curt Morgan

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

It’s just Greg -- I'm sorry this is confusing to me certainly but it's just the fifth center -- just the MPS and the optimization of the fleet. The transition payments as well as any EBITDA we would get off of the solar and the battery storage facilities are all incremental to that. So that is purely optimization of the fleet without any of the coal to solar and battery legislation.

Greg Gordon

Analyst

No, it wasn't confusing; I'm just a little slow on Friday after 50 earnings. Thank you for clearing it up. The second question is you said you're going to give us an update. Obviously, 2020 guidance and talk about directionally where 2021 -- what 2021 looks like later in the year. I appreciate that but in the past you've said that you thought your business model would support EBITDA in a pretty tight range without much backwardation going out through time. I think if sell-side analysts were to sort of just mark their models to market for the decline -- 5% decline in the forward curve in Texas, we've seen since February that it would look like your EBITDA's backwardated. So to avoid investors sort of how do you give investors confidence that they will not just rely on that forward mark because you know the sell-side analysts and even investors -- most investors tend to just use the mark, the market which probably show backwardation here and I don't think that's the way you think that business is going to trend. So can you give us a little help with that?

Curt Morgan

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

Yes. So a couple. First of all, I think that's a very good question. And so I tried to talk a little bit about that in the script but I'll get into a little bit more. I think we also -- we believe in ERCOT for example that 2021, 2022, and 2023 that the backwardation in the curve is not fundamentally driven but it's more transactionally driven by a very small portion of transactions in the market meaning it's thinly traded. And we think it's a bit overdone out there. I will tell you that prices are likely going to be lower in 2021 and 2022 and 2023 than probably what they are in 2019. I think 2019 is probably a peak of the low-end of the reserve margin but that's all a function of what gets into ultimately gets built. But I do think that curve is a heck of a lot flatter. So one thing is I just think we're going to see higher contribution from the curves. We also talked about many times, the market is going to ebb and flow and we're going to have opportunities as the market increases or decreases pricing anyway in the forward curves based on views of tightness and we will be able to hedge into that. And I think we could construct a realized price curve that will be better and we've done this historically better than what you're seeing in 2021, 2022, 2023. The other thing is we have the Crius EBITDA, we have the up -- not up until, we have the Moss Landing and I'm sure we'll have some other things. So I believe that there are some things that are already baked into the system. And then the MISO uplift of $50 million to $100 million.…

Operator

Operator

Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Analyst

Hey can you hear me?

Curt Morgan

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

Hey Julien, how are you doing?

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Analyst

Hey good, thank you. I wanted to follow-up with a couple of items here. So just from a timeline perspective, just wanted to understand your comments earlier about the updates with third quarter, if they transpired that we don't have legislation in hand quite yet, right given the VETO session and all that in Illinois. And I know you don't want to necessarily predict that but just in terms of providing updates. Could we get an OP update with the third quarter timeframe even without some of the clarity in Illinois? And then separately later on whatever happens get a separate and discrete update on the future of the asset spend?

Curt Morgan

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

Yes, yes.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Analyst

Okay. One does not preclude the other. Yes. Okay. We're just looking to clarify. And then separately just to understand the process itself. How are you thinking about the implications of legislation just in terms of leverage you have focusing more on the PJM side of the equation rather than necessarily the MISO leverage that you have at present that you've gone over already?

Curt Morgan

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

Well look, I mean you guys know this that there is a -- the way it works in Illinois, there's a big player and it's Exelon and I know that. And so Exelon is going to make some moves in Illinois. We think what we're doing is consistent with the things, they want to do. And so that's just the way Illinois goes. And so we don't have the big seat at the table that Exelon does. What I do think we have is, we have a very compelling and I think fair proposal. It's not a greedy proposal and it has a lot for everybody. It has something for the local communities. It has something for the environmental groups in terms of getting a certainty around what's going to happen with the coal fleet. And it also has reinvestment in renewables where that's where the state wants to go. And I think it's reasonably priced and in terms of its total impact on a customer bill, it's minuscule. And so I think we have -- we have a -- what I would consider, we have a lot of good things in that legislation which is why I think it has some strength. It's yet to be seen, where how high the support for it will go. But we've actually had really good reception on this legislation. I'm going to Illinois to spend a couple of days here pretty soon; I'll get a better read of that when I get there. Julien and I can always, we can pass that along through Molly and other, when we get back but I think that's why I say I think it's a reasonable shot here especially if energy, a broad energy reform bill gets moved in Illinois. And I still think that's got a better chance in the VETO session in this current session. But if it does get moved, I think there's a really good chance that this could get tacked onto it. And so that's why I feel pretty good about what can happen in Illinois. And clearly, PJM is a bigger, a bigger deal for us. I mean we've got more megawatts. Our retail business is going to end up being bigger there ultimately. And so that means a lot to the company and so we -- when we emphasize our time, we spend a lot of time around PJM. It's pretty simple. I think I can't remember the numbers but I think it's like 90-plus-percent comes from ERCOT, PJM and ISO New England in that order. And so we do spend a lot of time and I've spent time in Pennsylvania, I've spent time in Ohio because of the nuclear subsidy efforts that are going on there. And so we do put a lot of emphasis around PJM because it is important to our company.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Analyst

A quick follow-up, if you don't mind more of a detailed question just 1Q adjusted EBITDA obviously straightforward. How do you think about cash flow for the quarter just to get it out there [indiscernible]?

Bill Holden

Analyst

Yes, Julien so adjusted free cash flow from ongoing ops for the quarter was $395 million. Now that's about I think a 48% convergent ratio. But if you recall, we have some fairly lumpy outflows in Q1 that don't recur in the rest of the year. Those would include property tax payments and also the timing of annual incentive payout.

Operator

Operator

Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Steve Fleishman

Analyst

Hi good morning. Just I know this is you don't necessarily know this information but just curious Curt, if you have any sense on any updates on the selling shareholders on what we might see when they report holdings, I guess in mid-May?

Curt Morgan

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

I do know that the two large shareholders have and this is significant for our -- for the tax free nature of the spin that we had. We basically win, we became Vistra. But I think they're both below 5%. In terms of exactly where they are, Molly, probably has a better sense of that. I really Steve, I don't know exactly but Molly would you have anything to add around kind of where they are?

Molly Sorg

Analyst

Not exact positions but definitely they've both been selling in the first quarter.

Curt Morgan

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

Yes. And we do know that that's the other thing, Steve, is that we know they've been active selling. And so I just don't have the exact numbers but I expect that we're going to see a pretty -- a pretty material move in their holdings when it's 13 has to come out. I think we're going to see a pretty precipitous move here. The nice thing I would tell you is that I think both Oaktree and Apollo have sort of settled into a selling operation, if you will, that's been kind of ratable, systematic, and I think my own, I don't talk to them about this, this is not my business. But I think we try to do some large trade, those tend to send signals to the market. They tend to be a little bit disruptive. I will tell you that the banks that actually execute them sometimes get a little ahead of themselves and create issues. And so they've kind of backed away from that and they're doing this more in a very systematic way. And I think because of that, we've seen that -- we've been able to sort of incrementally move the stock price up while they're doing that. And I like that better but I think they've moved quite a bit. I just don't have a guess at the numbers.

Steve Fleishman

Analyst

Okay. One other question, just you and NRG had much different retail kind of outcomes this quarter. I think it's mainly just due to the way, they do their transfer pricing. But just maybe if could you give a view of kind of just retail trends in ERCOT and just how you're seeing margins, customer account things like that?

Curt Morgan

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

Yes. So I will speak just quickly on us and ERCOT. I mean we -- I mean us and NRG. NRG does more of an average transfer price and we do not the pricing to retail in that market at any given point in time. So we should see lower margin -- contribution margins in retail and EBITDA in the third quarter than what NRG will see. And so I don't guide NRG that's just generally what we know about how it works. And we liked what we do it, the same they liked what they do it and that is a difference and that's so, I think that is a difference in this quarter for us versus them. Not the only difference but that's one of them. In terms of what was the other question -- was just generally around retail.

Steve Fleishman

Analyst

It was just the overall trends. Yes.

Curt Morgan

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

That's generally around retail. I mean we did have a bit of attrition in the first quarter but very small attrition. We grew accounts last year; we still feel like that we have a shot at having a pretty good year on terms of residential attrition and small business because we're going to see some really peaky pricing in the summer. And sometimes what happens, when that happens is that we tend to get customers coming our way. In our guidance, we do have some net attrition. We always do. But we feel pretty good in a higher price environment we sometimes see customers come our way and we're obviously working toward that. We'll see. And then of course I think NRG said this, and I think I wouldn't say it again is that you never know what could happen this summer but some big books could come our way. I did say that we're not looking to do any real acquisitions but sometimes in this type of environment, if a retailer is not prepared well enough and we get some really spiky costs, we may see some opportunities to take on some additional customers from somebody that can't make it. So that could come our way as well. In terms of just margins, I would just say that our margins continue to be strong. I think our team does a tremendous job on how we price. And we're very cognizant of the attrition levels of our customers and so it's always a balance in terms of how much price you want to move someone up when wholesale prices go up and also being able to retain that customer. We tend to take a long-term view but over time, we're able to move prices up as the market moves up and we've got a very sophisticated and analytical group that helps us think through what's the right time to do that. Jim, I don't know if you have anything?

Jim Burke

Analyst

Yes, Curt. The only thing I would add, Steve this is Jim Burke. The market all retailers entering 2019 were facing a higher annual power cost entering 2019 than they were facing entering 2018. That's on the order of about $10 a megawatt hour on the 7X24 basis. And then when you shape it then you have swing and ancillary just about a $15 increase. All of that was really showing up in third quarter pricing. So as Curt said we're trying to levelize our prices for our customers, our experienced quarter one 2018 versus quarter one 2019, power costs since we are transferring at market that did not vary much at all. But our revenue was higher in Q1 2019 in anticipation of having to deal with this higher annualized power cost. That's why Curt was emphasizing the margin for retail is really going to be in Q1, Q2, and Q4 because we're all climbing not only a rising curve but a peak year curve in 3Q. And so that's just a little bit of the financial dynamic that's different. I would say that's generally true across all retailers. The difference in intercompany may be if one company prices differently between segments and we do it on a monthly shape basis like the market unfolds.

Steve Fleishman

Analyst

Thank you.

Curt Morgan

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

Did that help, Steve?

Steve Fleishman

Analyst

Yes, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your last question comes from the line of Angie Storozynski with Macquarie. Your line is open.

Angie Storozynski

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

Thank you. So two quick questions. So on the Waha granted only a few of your plants really benefit from the weakness in this gas price but is there a way to actually tap into this hub with more generation assets. And then secondly, we've seen quite a dramatic move in RA prices in California. How does it -- how is it impacting Oakland and/or anything round Moss Landing before you actually start building your battery? Thank you.

Curt Morgan

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

Okay. I just want to make sure we will get to that last piece. I think the first piece was around just the Permian Basin and the advantage pricing, Angie is that right? And just kind of how that -- how do we think about it?

Angie Storozynski

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

Yes. I mean in the past you mentioned that there is that you're working potentially on sourcing gas from Waha for more of your gas plants.

Curt Morgan

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

Yes, yes, okay. So well as it relates to what's happening right now on the ground. First of all, I want to -- because I know there's been a lot of interest as to how much could this end up being in terms of this favorability in our guidance. I mean look I will tell you that both Odessa and then our Peakers that we have out there, either plants have done well because we're actually getting paid in some instances to take gas. It's not material enough because we just don't have as much capacity out there. But I mean it is -- when we build our guidance and our plans and I think you guys know this, at the end of the day we have value that we expect to get because we're in multiple markets. We have multiple revenue streams and there's a lot of optionality in our fleet. It's not necessarily defined but we know we will achieve it. And so part of that value in this particular year of that bucket, I think is partly being filled by the fact that we have a better gas price or fuel price, we are spilling up the bucket to get to the guidance. And so that's why we're not moving things around. Plus it's just not material enough to do that. In terms of your question about can other plants benefit? The reality is right now just because of the pipes that benefit is exclusively in the Permian area. We're not able to get that but we are advantaged with some of our plants because we see discount pricing off of some of the price points that we have. It's still the case that the Houston Ship Channel gas price, the units that use Houston Ship Channel gas price still set the price for power from many of our plants discounted gas price relative to the Houston Ship Channel. Today that's the reality. That may shift a little bit as the pipelines get built and a lot of gas wants to find its way to the ship channel but that's also a function of LNG but also just the overall balancing of the system because this system will be more balanced in that scenario because there's a heck of a lot more pipes down there than there are in the West Texas area which is the real problem. So I don't expect us to get a big advantage, incremental advantage from Permian gas prices for our other fleet that's outside of the Permian Basin in Texas. But we already have an advantage of some of our plants because we have discounted gas pricing. So that -- there was another question.

Angie Storozynski

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

So I was trying to gauge, if there is a way for you to benefit from the recent move up in RA or capacity crisis in California?

Curt Morgan

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

Well, I think we have. So in my comments, I probably there is a little bit vague on it but I talked about the fact that California has been a nice upside surprise for us and it's really because of that. But also there's been some issues around gas which has pushed up power pricing and we saw that last summer, we may see that again this summer. And so Moss Landing actually -- for Moss Landing EBITDA, we've seen probably a roughly 20% increase in EBITDA off of just Moss Landing, less so at Oakland, that's not really getting much of that. And then of course we still feel like Moss Landing, we're working on may have another opportunity at Moss Landing for another battery storage project and we've got a couple other opportunities at Oakland on that side for battery storage as well. So what we like about California is we think we can create a reasonable EBITDA out of something that we would pay for and we didn't expect to really have much of an EBITDA. But your point is exactly right. And Moss Landing has benefited and we expect it to continue to benefit. And what we're finding is and this is why we made the statement about Illinois is these flexible combined cycle plants in markets that have significant intermittent resources actually can see times where they actually are used more and actually can see higher pricing.

Operator

Operator

I will now turn the call back over to Curt Morgan for closing remarks.

Curt Morgan

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

Thank you for taking the time to join us this morning. As I stated at the beginning of the call, we do appreciate your interest in Vistra Energy and we look forward to continuing the conversation. Thanks a lot. Have a great day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes the Vistra Energy first quarter 2019 results conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.