Steve Muscato
Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please proceed.
Thanks Jim. Sure. I would add, if we start with natural gas, which is kind of a big driver behind power prices, the marginal shell has now become the Hainesville, which is a dry shell. We're seeing limited growth in the Utica and the Marcellus due to limited pipeline take away and all the growth in the Permian that's happening, even though that's a wet shell, it's not the marginal shell. It's being used to really feed growing LNG export markets. So, that's really provided support on natural gas, which is why you're seeing it stay $4 and above, at least 2025 and beyond. The front end of the curve is really influenced by a -- some excess storage inventories that are due to a mild weather, that if you look going forward, if you assume normal weather should balance itself out once you get to the 2020, late 2024, early 2025 period. In terms of like, say, fundamentals in each market, you're seeing this integration of renewables, particularly challenging in PJM, you see a lot of coal leaving the stack over time, but a slow incremental movement in renewables. Not only are renewables less effective in markets like PJM because lower capacity factors, it doesn't have the same irradiance or wind speeds that you see in markets like Texas and Mico. But it also takes a lot to replace it. You could see five to nine to one replacement levels needed in order to maintain same levels of reliability. You also have problems with east coast gas markets to the extent they can recouple with European markets. That could also cause some volatility. And I think Jim mentioned some of the things that are already happening in ERCOT in terms of reform. You have solar pushing the peak out. You only have one hour batteries coming into ERCOT, which it really doesn't help on an extended heat wave that may occur or extended cold front. And so, I think uncertainty around gas and coal assets and determine what happens with the legislature in addition to an aging fleet provides this collision we're seeing over time, which is going to win out the renewables or fossil fuels, and at least in the intermediate term, it appears gas is going to be needed. It's going to be stressed. And so, we think that's supporting fundamentals out.