John Ciulla
Analyst · Polaris Capital Management.
Bernie, I think in some sectors, we are, absolutely. And at portfolio managers, we're doing the same thing. If we have opportunities because there's still a lot of private liquidity out there to lower areas in our loan book that we think might be vulnerable in the long term, we're taking actions as well. So I don't want you to get the sense that we're not in full preparedness mode, the potential number of outcomes here is wide. Our base case is still -- if there is a recession, it's relatively mild in terms of impact on broad credit, but we obviously know that there could be a worse downturn. So as I said earlier, all of our origination, we're not pedal down, meaning that its loan growth at all costs, we’re taking care of our borrowers in the geographies and sectors and our existing relationships and opportunities we should, but we're trying to avoid like in real estate, we're cautious in hotel, we're cautious and really not doing anything in office right now. And so there are property types we're focused on where our growth is multifamily, industrial distribution, which is still pretty healthy. And in C&I, I'd say we're really careful about cyclical contractors. We're careful about folks that are exposed to energy costs, transportation costs who have been significantly impacted by supply chain disruption, so -- who've been impacted actually by labor shortages and the tight labor market. So what we do is we don't put a blanket on everything and put up the red light or the yellow life, but our credit folks who are just terrific. Jason Soto, our Chief Credit Officer and his team, they're well aware of where there is more vulnerability and it's coming through, I think, in our risk selection, which is why a little bit, we're not projecting the same level of loan growth for the balance of the year. We still think there will be decent loan demand. But we think as we move closer to whatever this cycle is, that there will be less demand because our borrowers will be more cautious and so are we.