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Westlake Corporation (WLK)

Q1 2016 Earnings Call· Tue, May 3, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Westlake Chemical Corporation First Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' remarks, you'll be invited to participate in a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, this conference is being recorded today, May 3, 2016. I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Ben Ederington, Westlake's Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer. Sir, you may begin. L. Benjamin Ederington - Vice President, General Counsel, Chief Administrative Officer & Corporate Secretary: Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Westlake Chemical Corporation first quarter 2016 conference call. I'm joined today by Albert Chao, our President and CEO; Steve Bender, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and other members of our management team. The conference call agenda will begin with Albert, who will open with a few comments regarding Westlake's performance in the first quarter of 2016, followed by a current perspective on the industry. Steve will then provide a more detailed look at our financial and operating results. Finally, Albert will add a few concluding comments, and we will open up the call up to questions. During this call, we refer to ourselves as Westlake Chemical. Any reference to Westlake Partners is to the master limited partnership, Westlake Chemical Partners LP. And references to OpCo refers to our subsidiary, Westlake Chemical OpCo LP, who owns certain olefin facilities. Today, management is going to discuss certain topics that will contain forward-looking information that is based on management's beliefs, as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to management. These forward-looking statements suggest predictions or expectations, and thus are subject to risks or uncertainties. Actual results could differ…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Don Carson of Susquehanna Financial. Your line is now open.

Don Carson - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst · Susquehanna Financial. Your line is now open

Yes, a question on your Vinyls business, specifically caustic. You show benchmark pricing as down, just wonder what your realizations were and also what you're expecting for caustic pricing in the second quarter with all of the pricing issues that you have. And just as a follow-on, you did mention you had higher U.S. caustic sales; does that mean you're participating in exports or was this all domestic business? Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes. In the first quarter, op (17:54) caustic prices went down in the U.S. and now we have – industry is down so $75 a ton of price increase for the first and second quarter. The volume has improved for our caustics business, and we have not participated in any amount for export.

Don Carson - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst · Susquehanna Financial. Your line is now open

And then on the Olefins side, with your outage at Petro 1, did you rebuilding a sufficient inventory of polyethylene to see you through that in Q2, or are your inventories below normal levels as you come into the seasonally strong second quarter? Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: We have a reasonable inventory in polyethylene to satisfy our customer needs during the year.

Don Carson - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst · Susquehanna Financial. Your line is now open

Thank you. Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Frank Mitsch of Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is now open.

Frank J. Mitsch - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Frank Mitsch of Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is now open

Hey, good morning. Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning. Mark Steven Bender - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: Good morning.

Frank J. Mitsch - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Frank Mitsch of Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is now open

Albert, you were talking about polyethylene improving late in Q1. I was wondering if you could offer some commentary on what you're seeing here in Q2 and your expectations in terms of pricing. Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Certainly. As Steve mentioned, there was a $0.05 a pound increase went in effect in March, and further for April there's $0.04 a pound price increase. And the demand has been very strong. ACC came out with the polyethylene demand also the mass consumption export being quite strong. And we see continued spend going into May.

Frank J. Mitsch - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Frank Mitsch of Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is now open

So you realized the $0.05 in March; you expect to realize the $0.04 in April. Is that fair for us to surmise? Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes.

Frank J. Mitsch - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Frank Mitsch of Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is now open

All right, great. And then can you offer the same sort of commentary on what you are seeing on the PVC side? Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Certainly. PVC business, we also suffered a price decrease in the first quarter but as, again, Steve mentioned earlier, with the crude oil price turning around and with the building season coming in the spring time, there's been price increase of $0.04 in March, and I think the industry announced $0.03 or $0.04 in April, which yet we will see in the next few days.

Frank J. Mitsch - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Frank Mitsch of Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is now open

My understanding is that some of the consultants out there are saying that it's up $0.02 in April, does that seem realistic? Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think CDI reported $0.02, that's right.

Frank J. Mitsch - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Frank Mitsch of Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is now open

Okay. Alight. Thanks so much. Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: That's only an estimate. You're welcome.

Frank J. Mitsch - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Frank Mitsch of Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is now open

Thank you. Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of James Sheehan of SunTrust Robinson. Your line is now open.

Jim M. Sheehan - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · James Sheehan of SunTrust Robinson. Your line is now open

Thanks. Albert, could you comment on tightness in the PVC market? Are you seeing anything out there as a result of the accident down at Mexichem in either PVC or caustic soda core-alkali? Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes. It's very unfortunate what happened in the Mexichem operation in Mexico. There has been increased demand and price movement on the export market. We believe with the export from the U.S. and from Asia, the export demand in Latin America for Mexichem's products will be fulfilled.

Jim M. Sheehan - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · James Sheehan of SunTrust Robinson. Your line is now open

Okay. Thanks. Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: You're welcome.

Jim M. Sheehan - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · James Sheehan of SunTrust Robinson. Your line is now open

And Albert, just on the ethane price outlook for the second half of the year, we're seeing natural gas prices move up, possibly some were export activity. What do you think ethane prices are going to look like in the second half of the year relative to fuel value? Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Right. IHF has forecasted the ethane price which today is $0.19 to $0.20 a gallon and above this fuel value would r move up second half of the year to the mid or high $0.20 a gallon due to increased demand for ethane, both on domestic expansions that we are seeing, as well as on exports, whether it's through pipeline or through ship of ethane. But we still believe looking at figures that the U.S. ethane-based ethylene cracker will still be caught advantaged over the global NAFA-based ethylene crackers.

Jim M. Sheehan - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · James Sheehan of SunTrust Robinson. Your line is now open

Thank you. And could you provide an update on the pipeline dispute with Eastman Chemical? When do you think that might be resolved? Mark Steven Bender - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: James, this is Steve. On those issues, they're still being sorted out in the court system, and so I expect that to be sometime – hard to call it at this stage in terms of time win – time window but still sometime to work through the court systems.

Jim M. Sheehan - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · James Sheehan of SunTrust Robinson. Your line is now open

Thank you. Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Aleksey Yefremov of Nomura Securities. Your line is now open.

Aleksey Yefremov - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst · Aleksey Yefremov of Nomura Securities. Your line is now open

Good morning. Thank you. Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning.

Aleksey Yefremov - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst · Aleksey Yefremov of Nomura Securities. Your line is now open

Good morning. Could you discuss how you think about offer price for Axiall and how much of potential improvement in caustic soda and PVC was already in that number or whether you might rethink that number if fundamental in caustic soda and PVC improved further? Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, we're not going through details the questions you proposed. I would just say that our offer – the last offer was a very compelling offer with 143% premium already unaffected price in January 22 of $9.60 a share of Axiall.

Aleksey Yefremov - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst · Aleksey Yefremov of Nomura Securities. Your line is now open

Thank you very much. Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: You are welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Hassan Ahmed of Alembic Global. Your line is now open.

Hassan I. Ahmed - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Analyst · Hassan Ahmed of Alembic Global. Your line is now open

Good morning, Albert and Steve. Mark Steven Bender - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: Good morning. Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning.

Hassan I. Ahmed - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Analyst · Hassan Ahmed of Alembic Global. Your line is now open

Across the board, it seems that the demand for polyethylene continues to be strong. Obviously, the backdrop is that we've seen energy prices go up and we've also obviously seen a bunch of these polyethylene price hike stick. So my question is that are you continuing to see strong underlying demand growth, be it in North America or across the globe, or is a large chunk of sort of this demand growth that you are seeing from an inventory rebuild in sort of anticipation of further price hikes? Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think maybe a bit of both. I think the fundamental demand globally for polyethylene is there, but also, I think that the increased oil prices in the last few months has helped to propel the higher prices as well.

Hassan I. Ahmed - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Analyst · Hassan Ahmed of Alembic Global. Your line is now open

But in terms of inventories, do you continue to see them at relatively normal or below normal levels? Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Definitely in the U.S., but I think our inventory is below normal. I think ACC number shows and people will look at it saying we're below average inventory for all polyethylenes in the U.S. I can't speak that for overseas.

Hassan I. Ahmed - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Analyst · Hassan Ahmed of Alembic Global. Your line is now open

Fair enough. Now moving onto the chlor-alkali side of things, obviously we have heard of some capacity closure announcements in the U.S. in the near term, and then thereafter sort of as we look towards 2017, there's expectations for capacity closures in Europe. So what are your near- to medium-term views on supply-demand fundamentals? Or asked differently, do you think these closures near- to medium-term will be enough to create snugness in the market? Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: That's a good question. I think this year there are three or four chlor-alkali plant – new plant expansions totaling about 400,000 tons coming up. So that pretty much offsets the 400,000 tons that was discussed on closures this year. And Europe is between about 800,000-or-so tons potential closures due to the mercury cell closures in Europe, I think, up to 2017. So I think any reduction in excess capacity will be good for the industry on a global basis, but those numbers are still quite small compared to global capacity. I think in Asia and China, the chlor-alkili plants are running in between 50% or 60% operating rates.

Hassan I. Ahmed - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Analyst · Hassan Ahmed of Alembic Global. Your line is now open

Got it. Very helpful, Albert. Thank you. Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Roberts of UBS. Your line is now open.

John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · John Roberts of UBS. Your line is now open

Good morning. Mark Steven Bender - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: Good morning. Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning.

John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · John Roberts of UBS. Your line is now open

I think your internal capital spending outlook after the current expansion is relatively low. Should we expect you to maintain a low capital spending outlook until you finish with the Axiall situation? Mark Steven Bender - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: John, the guidance I gave for this year of $5 million to $550 million is obviously for the Petro 1 and the Calvert project. Those are the only two projects that we have of significant size that have been announced. So I would expect our capital spending to decline as we complete these projects back to kind of normal levels.

John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · John Roberts of UBS. Your line is now open

And then a small idled Gulf Coast ethylene plant was sold during the quarter; did you bid on that? Mark Steven Bender - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: We don't ever speak to the activities we have on the corporate development front.

John Roberts - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · John Roberts of UBS. Your line is now open

Okay. Thank you. Mark Steven Bender - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thanks Our next question comes from one of Arun Viswanathan of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Arun Viswanathan - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · Arun Viswanathan of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open

Thank you. Good morning, Albert and Steve. Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning. Mark Steven Bender - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: Good morning.

Arun Viswanathan - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · Arun Viswanathan of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open

So I guess you mentioned that following the Petro 1 expansion, you'd be balanced on ethylene. Do you foresee any other further development opportunities, or what are your kind of internal organic plans for growth over the next couple years? Mark Steven Bender - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: We always assess those as we go forward in that we have a team of engineers that do that work on an ongoing basis, but there's nothing that we have announced or are working on actively at this stage. But if we have something, then we'll certainly come forward with that. Just the Petro 1 and the Calvert facility is the only ones that we're moving forward on. But we, of course, always assess our plants and opportunities as they present themselves.

Arun Viswanathan - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · Arun Viswanathan of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open

Okay, great. And then I guess maybe you can just comment on pricing in both LDPE and PVC. Are you seeing any greater uptake in some of your specialty products versus commodity grade? Are those following the basic index fees? Thanks. Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, I think specialty products, certainly their prices are much higher than commodity grade, and their price movements are more supply-demand oriented and not so much commodity price oriented.

Arun Viswanathan - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · Arun Viswanathan of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open

And then last question, I guess, is just on kind of near term construction. Have you noticed any improvement, I guess, or how do you kind of characterize the building products side of your businesses? Is it, I guess, strong or – and maybe you can just kind of differentiate that between residential and non-residential construction? Thanks. Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. I think that building part is certainly into this building season has improved over prior quarters and over prior years. But as you can see that in March, the new home starts has dropped. So I think the improvement is slow but we're seeing signs of improvement.

Arun Viswanathan - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · Arun Viswanathan of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open

Sorry, I just had one more quick question. On caustic, there's been a number of price increase announcements the index appears to have moved up $15 to $20 for April. I guess maybe you can just give us your characterization on probability that you'd realize further increases in May and June. Thanks. Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. We believe that some portion of the price increase will be accepted by industry over the next few months. But as you know, now is also the building season, as I said earlier, the small demand for calling for PVC. As result, the production of caustic also increases.

Arun Viswanathan - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · Arun Viswanathan of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open

Right. Okay, thanks. Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Begleiter of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.

David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · David Begleiter of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open

Thank you. Good morning. Albert... Mark Steven Bender - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: Good morning, David.

David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · David Begleiter of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open

Thank you. On Styrene, can you give us your updated thoughts on the styrene chain? And in terms of – any potential for reinvestments, do you, think in the chain either by you or other people? Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: That's a good question. I think in the U.S. our styrene plants, which was built in 1991, is still the newest, the styrene plant in U.S. So with the increasing crude oil prices which styrene mainly is from benzene, it has affected the competitiveness of styrene. And then with the fall, crude oil prices has benefited styrene. So the global demand for styrene is quite good now, but depending on which direction oil goes. It's very volatile in terms of the supply-demand of operating. So I don't know in the U.S. I think in Asia, there are styrene plants is being build but in the U.S. we do not see any announcement for new styrene plants.

David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · David Begleiter of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open

Understood. Just lastly on ethane, Albert. Longer term, should ethane trade at or very near its fuel value, or do you think there should be a premium given potential supply-demand tightness? Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: When you say, fuel value you mean gas value, right?

David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · David Begleiter of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open

Yes. Gas value, yes. Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: We think that historically ethane should trade above gas value to have a return investment for the cost of extracting and fractionating out ethane. So long-term they should have some premium over gas btu value.

David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · David Begleiter of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open

Can you quantify that premium at all? Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: No, depending on the gas price in the market.

David I. Begleiter - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · David Begleiter of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open

Understood. Thank you. Albert Yuan Chao - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: You're very welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. At this time the Q&A session has now ended. Are there any closing remarks? L. Benjamin Ederington - Vice President, General Counsel, Chief Administrative Officer & Corporate Secretary: Thank you again for participating in today's call. We hope you will join us for our next conference call to discuss our second quarter 2016 results.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for participating in today's Westlake Chemical Corporation First Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, this call will be available for replay beginning two hours after the call has ended. It may be accessed until 11:59 PM Eastern Time on Tuesday, May 10, 2016. The replay can be accessed by calling the following numbers. Domestic callers should dial 1-855-859-2056; international callers may access the replay at 404-537-3406. The access code for both numbers is 90251315. Thank you for participating in today's conference. That does conclude today's forum. You may all disconnect. Have a great day everyone.