Earnings Labs

Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM)

Q4 2012 Earnings Call· Fri, Mar 22, 2013

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Silver Wheaton's 2012 yearend results conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks there will be a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded on today, Friday March 22 at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time. I’ll now turn the conference over to Mr. Patrick Drouin, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Patrick Drouin

Management

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for participating in today's call. I'm joined today by Randy Smallwood, Silver Wheaton’s President and Chief Executive Officer, and Gary Brown, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I’d like to bring to your attention that some of the commentary on today's call may contain forward-looking statements. There can be no assurance that these forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Please refer to the section entitled Description of the Business Risk Factors in Silver Wheaton’s annual information form which is available on SEDAR and in Silver Wheaton’s Form 40-F on file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The annual information form sets out the material risk factors that could cause actual results to differ, including the assets that control our mining operations from which Silver Wheaton purchases silver, risks related to such mining operations and the risk of a decline in silver and prices. Lastly, it should be noted that all figures referred to on today's call are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Now I would like to turn the call over to Randy Smallwood, our President and Chief Executive Officer.

Randy Smallwood

Management

Thank you, Patrick and good morning ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for dialing in. 2012 was a tremendously successful year for Silver Wheaton. The company set new financial and operating records and fulfilled its commitments to grow organically to acquire accretive new streams and to increase the dividend. In 2012 our attributable production increased for the fourth consecutive year to a record 29.6 million silver equivalent ounces. And in August we were pleased to announce the addition of two new precious metal streams from Hudbay Minerals. This acquisition provided immediate cash flow and maintained our policy of investing in low cost, high quality assets with strong operating partners. We remain extremely busy evaluating new opportunities and in 2013 we have already acquired two new gold streams from Vale, adding yet another strong partner and significantly increasing Silver Wheaton production profile. With these additions, we now forecast production of 33.5 million silver equivalent ounces in 2013 and by 2017 we will reach 53 million ounces of silver equivalent production, an increase of nearly 80% from 2012. With 2013 forecasted to be yet another year of record production, we anticipate robust cash flows throughout the year which should enable us to have the capacity to quickly repay the drawn debt facilities entered into for the Vale transaction. 2912 was an exceptional year for Silver Wheaton and I’m pleased to say that 2013 is shaping up to be even more exciting. With respect ot the fourth quarter of 2012, we’re of course proud to announced we finished the year with our strongest ever quarter of silver equivalent production and sales. In that fourth quarter production and sales reached all-time highs of 8.5 million ounces produced and 9.1 million silver equivalent ounces sold respectively. We expected sales to rebound in the fourth quarter as…

Gary Brown

Management

Thank you, Randy, and good morning ladies and gentlemen. Prior to reviewing Silver Wheaton's audited financial results for the three-months ended December 31, 2012, I would like to remind everyone that all monitory figures discussed are denominated in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Silver Wheaton finished 2012 with a record breaking fourth quarter marked by record levels of Sliver equivalent production and sales volume which translated into record setting quarterly revenues, operating earnings, net income and operating cash flows. The company's precious metal interest generated a record setting 8.5 million silver equivalent ounces of attributable production in the fourth quarter of 2012, 10% higher than the prior quarter attributable primarily to the [fixation] of the sharing mechanism at San Dimas, better grades at Veladero, and the inclusion of a full quarter's production from Hudbay's 777 mine. This production level was 22% higher than the production for the comparable period of the prior year, due primarily to production from 777 which was added to the portfolio in Q3 2012. Payable silver equivalent ounces produced but not yet delivered by our partners decreased by approximately 1.4 million ounces during the fourth quarter to 3.8 million ounces, primarily attributable to the shipment of concentrate produced in the prior quarters at Yauliyacu, Peñasquito and 777. Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2012 amounted to a record $287 million, with an average realized selling price of $31.46 per silver equivalent ounce sold. Again this represented an increase of almost 80% from the prior quarter and a 50% increase from the comparable period in the prior year. Earnings from operations for the fourth quarter of 2012 amounted to $196 million, representing yet another record for the company and an increase of 57% relative to the prior quarter and 31% relative to the fourth quarter of 2011.…

Randy Smallwood

Management

Thank you, Gary. Operator, we’d like to open up the call for questions now, please.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of John Bridges with JP Morgan. Your line is now open.

John Bridges - JP Morgan

Analyst

Congratulations on the results. At the end of your talk, you mentioned the Canadian tax review. Does that mean that’s over or does that mean there’s nothing come out of it yet?

Gary Brown

Management

No. It means that nothing has come out of it yet. We’d hoped that this will be concluded sometime this year, but it’s very unclear as to what CRA’s timing is on this.

John Bridges - JP Morgan

Analyst

And then I see you’re a good citizen paying or booking Canadian taxes. I just wondered what we could expect going forward there because you’ve got Canadian expenses as well. Is that taxes booked? And then you’ve got deferrals that will come through. How should we model that?

Gary Brown

Management

We will ultimately pay Canadian taxes on the profits from our Canadian operations. That tax rate I believe just went up to 26%. But we won’t pay cash. So we’re accruing taxes on a deferred basis right now on that income and we’ll not pay taxes on that until we’ve exhausted the loss carry forward position that we’ve got. We estimate at current silver and gold prices that we’ll start paying cash taxes sometime in 2015.

John Bridges - JP Morgan

Analyst

Thanks for the high dividend payment. I’m sure that’s been helpful this morning.

Randy Smallwood

Management

Yeah. Again it’s 20% of our operating cash flow so there’s no change in the actual calculation, but it is definitely a nice bump up. So happy to provide that to our shareholders.

John Bridges - JP Morgan

Analyst

Well done. Thanks guys.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from Trevor Turnbull with Scotia Bank. Your line is open.

Trevor Turnbull - Scotia Capital

Analyst · Scotia Bank. Your line is open.

I just wondered if there was a 43-101 that might be coming out with respect to the Sudbury assets like we saw for Salobo.

Randy Smallwood

Management

No, the Sudbury assets, the scale of Sudbury assets, they are not material with respect to Sliver Wheaton and contribution, so no need for a 43-101 to be completed.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Cosmos Chiu with CIBC. Your line is open.

Cosmos Chiu - CIBC World Markets

Analyst · CIBC. Your line is open.

Few questions here. I guess first off on the Barrick stream, maybe I am looking too far ahead. But in terms of 2014, are you going to continue receiving production from Pierina, Lagunas Norte and Veladero. Because I know you are confirmed or you are guaranteed for 75% of the capacity, so you are not really going to know until mid-late 2014. I am just wondering how I should model that transitional year in 2014?

Randy Smallwood

Management

They expect to be starting up the mills, starting up production in the second half of 2014. The way the contract is structured is that once they achieve 75% of production rates, they satisfied the completion test. And so until they get to that point, it's tough to predict when that will actually happen. It is a 90-day completion test and so we have modeled it that we will definitely receive some silver from Lagunas Norte, Pierina and Veladero in 2014. We are hopeful of course that Barrick gets is up and running at full capacity by the end of 2014. That would be great for us. But it's tough to sort of accurately predict where that is. We know, we have been down at the site. We are pretty happy with what we see going on down there. We think Barrick has made some really good moves in the last few months to attain those targets and so it's tough to sort of be exactly firm with how that is going to transition. But basically until the completion test is satisfied, we pull silver from the other three mines to fill you any shortfalls.

Cosmos Chiu - CIBC World Markets

Analyst · CIBC. Your line is open.

Okay. So certainly Q1 and Q2 2014, you are going to have some type of production coming from those other three currently producing [mines].

Randy Smallwood

Management

Yeah, definitely. Yeah, no, they would....

Gary Brown

Management

I think we would expect it for the entire year.

Randy Smallwood

Management

Yeah. Because of the 90-day completion test, it is the short fall. There will be some for the entire year, of course for the entire year. We are hopeful if they can actually satisfy it by the end of the year.

Cosmos Chiu - CIBC World Markets

Analyst · CIBC. Your line is open.

Okay. And in terms of the -- switching gears a little bit, in terms of the bridge loan that you have in place. I guess, it's up to the [option] of Silver Wheaton to chose either option number one, LIBOR plus 1.7% or Bank of Nova Scotia's base rate plus 0.75. Which one is more favorable at this point in time?

Gary Brown

Management

LIBOR, for sure.

Cosmos Chiu - CIBC World Markets

Analyst · CIBC. Your line is open.

Okay. So that’s how we should model. Is it a one time kind of option? Is that how things work?

Gary Brown

Management

No, no. Base rate loans would only be taken to the extent that we thought we would be borrowing for only a few days. Whereas LIBOR you have got to draw down for a minimum of 30-days, but LIBOR is much lower than base rates.

Cosmos Chiu - CIBC World Markets

Analyst · CIBC. Your line is open.

At this point in time?

Gary Brown

Management

Yeah.

Cosmos Chiu - CIBC World Markets

Analyst · CIBC. Your line is open.

Okay. And then I guess, given that there is a duration fee on the bridge. You know, certainly it's going to depending on what happens in terms of more permanent financing at the end. Would you consider switching some of that outstanding loan on the bridge into the revolver, given that there is not duration fee on the revolver?

Gary Brown

Management

Yeah. We consider that, but I think you need to recognize that we put $2.5 billion of credit facilities in place, knowing that we wouldn’t need all of those to close the Vale transaction. So it really depends on that, what additional deal flow occurs here. But we would definitely consider moving some of the bridge to the revolver.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of [Tyler McKenna with QB Asset Management]. Your line is open.

Tyler McKenna - QB Asset Management

Analyst

Great quarter. I just had a question regarding the process of how do you stream in the royalty. I understand the basics but I am wondering, do you ever take the silver or gold in your possession or you’re just kind of a middle person that gets the money?

Randy Smallwood

Management

We take delivery of silver credits. We could hold those if we want and convert them into hard silver, but we don’t hold that. We keep our business model simple for our shareholders to understand we don’t hold silver. If our shareholders choose to do that they’re more than welcome to and there’s lots of avenues for that. So we want to make sure that our model is clean and simple and easy to understand. What we provide access to is high quality precious metals production. So we don’t hold any of that metal. We could choose to if we wanted to, but there’s other avenues that I think are probably more efficient than forcing it upon all of our shareholders.

Tyler McKenna - QB Asset Management

Analyst

Right. So you haven’t started. I know Franklin (inaudible) starts to do that and then I was just wondering if you guys had thought about that at all.

Randy Smallwood

Management

I didn’t know that Franklin had actually started holding gold, but yeah, again our objective is to make sure that this company is easy to understand and easy to comprehend what it provides. As I mentioned there’s lots of avenues for people to hold silver and gold. So for us to actually mix that into our business model I think probably provides complication. I know there are shareholders that we have that do like that idea, but they’ve got avenues to pursue that and at the same time there’s also shareholders out there that perhaps don’t like that idea. So we choose to keep our business model simple and easy to understand.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Adrian Mitchell with Woodlawn Post. Your line is open.

Adrian Mitchell - Woodlawn Post

Analyst · Woodlawn Post. Your line is open.

I was looking at the 80% growth that you have projected and I wanted to know how that reflects upon your cash operating activities and your dividend moving forward over the next five years.

Randy Smallwood

Management

Well, because our dividend is actually connected to 20% of our operating cash flow, that’s how it’s calculated, our dividend will grow with that organic growth. As we climb in 80% of production, our dividend payments will climb. Obviously it’s a function of commodity prices too, but we are bullish in terms of precious metal prices on a longer term basis. So we expect to see growth both from organic. We also -- this is the best market that we’ve ever seen in terms of opportunities out there to make accretive acquisitions until we see acquisition growth. And then we also see exposure to the precious metals being a good one. So I would see continued -- I’m hopeful that we can continue to grow that dividend irrespective. We’ve got three different factors that we’ll add to that dividend growth over the next five years.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Butler with Canaccord Genuity. Your line is open.

Steve Butler - Canaccord Genuity

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Your line is open.

Randy or maybe for you Gary on the tax discussion on Sudbury where you have I guess an upfront payment was described $70 million U.S, would there be a little longer timeline to paying cash taxes on the Sudbury/Vale assets?

Gary Brown

Management

Well, I think we would pay taxes on those assets once the deposit is fully depleted. So that really doesn’t affect when it is that we’re going to ultimately pay cash taxes. What drives that is really the loss carry forward position.

Steve Butler - Canaccord Genuity

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Your line is open.

Second question was, I can’t remember the last quarter you guys actually delivered more sales in production and of course Q4 was enormously a great quarter that way where you reduced cost from inventories. Is that enough and is that maybe a yearend thing, cleaning house if you will, but sweeping the floors. But Randy, is there any chance here that you’d get some lingering effects for additional concentrate inventories sold above production in Q1?

Randy Smallwood

Management

Yeah. Steve, it’s important to reinforce and I know I;’ve said this in the past and I’m going to reinforce it again. When it comes to produced but not yet sold, we traditionally do see in the fourth quarter companies squeeze the pipelines. Their yearends are important for them and they want to make sure that they get their production sales numbers out too. So the guidance that I’ve given in the past and I’ve reiterated now, thanks for giving me the opportunity to -- it's that our Q4s will always be good ones in terms of getting sales climbing up and I can't promise that we will always receive the production in the fourth quarter, but they will definitely be one where we do clean out that produce but not yet sold category. Unfortunately, what happens traditionally is typically in the first quarter is that that pipeline then swells back up again. And so there may be a bit of swallowing that, expending that whole pipeline that comes to a pipeline back up again here in the first quarter. We may see a bit of growth there. Overall, I mean, it all averages out in the long run but it does give us some pretty big swings in Q4 and Q1 mainly because of that year-end incentive that most of our partners have.

Steve Butler - Canaccord Genuity

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Your line is open.

Right. And was there also a small quarter quirk from Q3 into Q4 with respect to the 777 mine at Manitoba?

Randy Smallwood

Management

There definitely was. I mean 777 didn’t deliver in sales even though they had the production in the third quarter. And we did announce that back at our conference call that we had -- and they have received a large amount of the, some of the initial deliveries from the 777 shortly after the end of the third quarter. So that definitely does have -- was a bit of a quirk that probably even highlighted this a bit more than expected. So it maybe one of the things that actually drove us to exceed the production number.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of [Andy Shopick]. Your line is now open.

Unidentified Speaker

Analyst

Randy, I want to ask you about the average cost trends. When the company really was established, you were able to acquire the streams at very attractive silver prices and clearly the properties and streams that you have in existence are pretty will fixed. You have characterized the opportunities for acquiring new streams as being very strong. But what I am really interested in trying to understand is under what terms and conditions are future streams likely to be acquired. Clearly there appears to be a little bit of creep in your average cash cost in part from the higher gold contributions when gold is basically a silver equivalent. But in reality, I am wondering whether you can give any color on prospects for future deals in terms of average cash costs and whether the mix of the business is going to put a little bit of pressure on your average cost per ounce in the future.

Randy Smallwood

Management

Well, one of the, I think dominant strengths of our business model is that fact that our costs are fixed by contract. You are correct in saying that when we borrowed on a bit more gold with the production payments at $400 per ounce, that averages back to a bit higher than our -- when you convert that to a sliver equivalent, it did average back to a higher cost in our traditional $3.90 per ounce. I will point out that when we did the Hudbay transaction, that the Hudbay transaction is using a production payment of $5.90 per ounce not $3.90. So there is also a bit of on an increase in there. You know I think when you look at the industry as a whole, and I often wonder why when I looked at increased costs for mining across the space, both in the capital and the operating see and we see a lot of the producing mine companies out there struggling with it. There is significant inflation in the industry. People talk about relatively low inflation rate on an overall basis, but I will tell you the mining industry is not seeing that. There has been a significant inflation over time. And there is no doubt that with that our cost of acquisition or cost of production are going to climb with that market. We started this company, silver was trading at around $5-$5.5 an ounce back in 2004. Obviously it's worth more now than it was then. So in terms of cost, I think it's the huge traction. It's one of the most dominant features that we provide in our company and our business model. The fact that I can tell you what our costs will be in 2015. I can tell you what our costs will be per ounce in 2020. You have got that confidence. And it's the one significant difference that a company like Silver Wheaton provides for mining investors, for commodity investors out there, precious metals investors is that there’s not going to be supplies in that way. They are fixed. Our capital contributions are fixed by contract and our ongoing operating costs. And so it really -- in this environment I think it really highlights the strength of our business model and obviously our operating loss are showing that thing.

Unidentified Speaker

Analyst

Well, that’s clearly the case for the existing streams and properties that you have and I think my question is more toward the future prospects and what the costs would likely be to enter in or acquire new streams and really what that’s more likely to look at because clearly I don’t think you can do the kinds of deals that you were able to do in the past when you correctly noted that silver was $5 an ounce back when you started the company.

Randy Smallwood

Management

Yeah, Andy and I agree, I’d love to still buy silver at $5 or $10 an ounce, but (inaudible). Yeah, it is worth a lot more. So there’s no doubt that the metal we buy now is worth more than metal that we’ve bought in the future. What we do is in terms of forward forecasting, we take what we think is a relatively conservative forward cost curve, a series of cost curves. We do a probability thing and that’s how we apply it and what I can assure you is that based on most reasonable projections in terms of where we see commodity prices going, all of our acquisitions will be accretive. It has to pass that test. We haven’t changed our method of estimating value. We won’t change our method of estimating value and I think our track record today has shown that pretty strong. So in this world we are confident that precious metals will continue to gain in value. Watching what’s been happening in the Euro over the last week has been I think quite refreshing. It just shows how fragile the whole fiscal system is out there. A small entity like Cyprus. Anyway, I hope that answers your question. There’s no doubt it will be more expensive than in the future, but that’s because gold and silver are a worth a lot more than they were in the past.

Unidentified Speaker

Analyst

Of course. Well, I’d be curious to see what kinds of deals you’re able to do in the future. Thanks very much.

Randy Smallwood

Management

Thank you, operator. Thanks everyone for dialing in.

Operator

Operator

Thank you everyone for dialing into ur conference call today. This concludes today’s conference call. Please disconnect your lines.