Earnings Labs

Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM)

Q4 2013 Earnings Call· Fri, Mar 21, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Silver Wheaton's 2013 Year End Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. (Operator instructions) Thank you. I would like to remind everyone this call is being recorded on Friday, March 21 at 11 A.M. Eastern Time. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Patrick Drouin, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Patrick Drouin

Management

Thank you, operator. Good morning ladies and gentlemen and thank you for participating in today’s call. I'm joined today by Randy Smallwood; Silver Wheaton's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Gary Brown, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I'd like to bring to your attention some of the commentary in today’s call may contain forward-looking statements. There can be no assurances that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Please refer to the section entitled description of the business risk factors in Silver Wheaton’s Annual Information Form, which is available on SEDAR and in Silver Wheaton’s Form 40-F on file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The Annual Information Form sets out the material risk factors that could cause actual results to differ including the absence of control of our mining operations from which Silver Wheaton purchases silver, risk related to such mining operations and the risk of a decline in silver prices. Lastly, it should be noted that all figures referred to on today’s call are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Now, I’d like to turn the call over to Randy Smallwood, our President and Chief Executive Officer.

Randy Smallwood

Management

Thank you, Patrick and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. 2013 was another strong year for Silver Wheaton, as we had our best year ever of silver and gold production, which increased for the fifth consecutive year to a record 35.8 million silver equivalent ounces. Sales also reached 30 million ounces for the first time in Silver Wheaton's history. 2013 also represented perhaps our best year ever in terms of acquisition growth as we capitalized on the low commodity price environment. In the first quarter of 2013, we bolstered our immediate and near-term growth profile by acquiring gold streams from Vale’s producing and expanding Salobo and Sudbury mines. And in November we continued the trend as we added a gold stream on HudBay’s Constancia Project, which will contribute to our production beginning in late 2014. Also in November, we created an innovative new agreement, our first early deposit gold stream with Sandspring Resources on a Toroparu Project down in Guyana. This project should add to our longer term growth profile. These transactions once again provided well-needed funding for our operating partners while providing our shareholders with increased exposure to precious metals production from high quality, high potential mines and projects in politically stable jurisdictions around the world. Silver Wheaton now forecasts production of 36 million silver equivalent ounces in 2014 and by 2018; we expect to increase by nearly 35% to 48 million ounces of silver equivalent production from our current portfolio. Overall, 2013 was a good year for Silver Wheaton in terms of production, sales, and acquisition growth. It was also a good year for us in terms of reserves and resources. As of December 31, 2013, our silver equivalent reserves increased by 4% and our combined reserves and resources were up by over 9% last year. Our 2013 fourth…

Gary Brown

Management

Thank you, Randy, and good morning ladies and gentlemen. Prior to reviewing Silver Wheaton's unaudited financial results for the three months ended December 31st, 2013 and the audited results for the year ended December 31st, 2013, I would like to remind everyone that all monetary figures discussed are denominated in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. The company's precious metal interest generated record attributable silver equivalent production of over 9.7 million ounces in the fourth quarter of 2013, 17% higher than production from the comparable period of the prior year, due primarily to higher production from Penasquito combined with production from the Sudbury and Salobo gold interests which were added to the portfolio in 2013. Approximately 75% of this production related to silver with the remainder relating to gold. Silver equivalent sales volumes amounted to 8 million ounces in Q4 2013, representing a 13% decrease from Q4 2012 with such decrease being primarily attributable to a buildup of 1.1 million silver equivalent payable ounces of silver and gold that had been produced by our partners, but not delivered to Silver Wheaton in Q4 2013. That compared to a reduction of approximately 1.4 million silver equivalent ounces in such balances in the comparable period of the prior year. Payable silver equivalent ounces produced, but not yet delivered by our partners amounted to approximately 6.4 million ounces as at December 31st, 2013, with the most significant increases in the quarter being attributable to Penasquito and Minto. Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2013 amounted to $167 million, representing a 45% decrease from the comparable period of the prior year with a 13% decline in sales volumes being compounded with a 33% decrease in the average realized silver equivalent selling price to $21.03 per ounce for the most recent quarter. Earnings from operations for…

Randy Smallwood

Management

Thank you, Gary. Operator, we'd like to open up the call for questions, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now conduct the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Andrew Quail with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Andrew Quail - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

Randy, Gary, Patrick, thanks very much for the update this morning. A couple of questions. First, that final payment of $135 million on Constancia, when do you guys expect that to be paid?

Randy Smallwood

Management

It's going to be somewhere around the middle of this year. I just want to remind you, we do have the option of paying that in shares versus cash.

Andrew Quail - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

Yeah.

Randy Smallwood

Management

So, we'll make that decision at the time, but it will be sometime around the middle of this year.

Andrew Quail - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

And just want to -- thanks, thanks. I just want to clarify that your liquidity position is about $1.1 billion, which is the facility and $100 million in cash.

Gary Brown

Management

That's ignoring the cash flows from operations that are being generated, which at current commodity prices, should be somewhere in the $500 million to $600 million range.

Andrew Quail - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

And one more for you, Gary. So on that -- so that -- obviously that production that’s not yet delivered, we consider it -- obviously expect -- obliviously it is a timing issue. Is that -- we obviously expect that in Q1. Do we expect this as to sort of roll over into Q2 at all?

Gary Brown

Management

Right. I mean, I can tell you that our first week of Q1 was pretty good. So we just missed. Some of that came through just after the end of the quarter.

Andrew Quail - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

Okay. And lastly, guys. On the order, is that the company audit that there's no update. Is there anything else you guys can give on that at all?

Gary Brown

Management

There really is nothing to provide. We continue to lack clarity in CRA's position and wait for them to give us some indication as to where they are standing on that. And there's really no firm timeline that has been provided to us with respect to when they will conclude this audit.

Andrew Quail - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

Thanks very much, guys.

Randy Smallwood

Management

Great, Andrew. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Alex Terentiew with Raymond James. Your line is open.

Alex Terentiew - Raymond James

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Hi. Good morning, guys. I just got a couple of questions, mainly on Sudbury here. Over the past year, I guess, because we only had it for a year. In Q1 to Q3 the gold produced ounces had been revised upwards by about 1 -- accumulated amount of about [1.8000] (ph) ounces. Can you give us a bit of color on what's causing that? And have sales with those additional ounces been picked up in Q4, or should we see them received in 2014?

Randy Smallwood

Management

We'll see an increase. As we bring on -- I mean, most of the additions that we had last year were concentrate producers and concentrate producers will always build our produced, but not yet sold. And so, we will see that normalize. And that's what we saw through 2013 with the addition of both Sudbury and Salobo coming on-stream. That is going to build our produced, but not yet delivered numbers. It will normalize, but that being said, as Salobo continues to ramp up its productions, it's just got that much more material moving through the pipeline as we say the pipeline between the mill and the smelters itself. And so, I think a good way of looking at it is just looking at the assets that we have. The produced concentrates versus those that produce Dory; and the concentrates will always add to that. And as we have ramp ups in production and increases expansions at those one of the produce concentrates, we will see growth in that number.

Alex Terentiew - Raymond James

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Okay. I guess -- sorry. I guess my question was more like so for looking at Q3, for example, Sudbury last quarter you reported 5.575,000 ounces of gold. This year, I mean, in your statements announced yesterday, Q3 was changed to 7.341 ounces. I guess is Sudbury just giving you that numbers.

Randy Smallwood

Management

Yes. Because…

Gary Brown

Management

Sudbury is -- there is a reconciliation on Sudbury.

Alex Terentiew - Raymond James

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Okay.

Gary Brown

Management

But we go back, because Vale is a bit of a unique situation because some of the product goes all the way through. They own smelting and refining facilities. And so, it takes quite a while, when we saw that at the start of the year it takes quite a while for it to work its way through the whole process. But then they do a back reconciliation that stretches for more than a quarter. So Sudbury is one of the more complicated assets in our portfolio from that. And we wind up having to do a back reconciliation with -- when I say we it's actually Vale that does it -- and we have to adjust our numbers to match what Vale comes up with.

Alex Terentiew - Raymond James

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Okay. That makes sense. Thanks. Just one more question then on Sudbury, you noted a declining trend in production due to declining grades. Are those declining grades in-line with what you guys were expecting? And is there any change to plan or any risk to the higher production post 2015 that you're expecting?

Randy Smallwood

Management

No. We haven't seen anything there. Taunton is coming on-stream will help. It does have higher precious metal grades, so it will help on that basis.

Alex Terentiew - Raymond James

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Okay. Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Chris Lichtenheldt with Dundee Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Chris Lichtenheldt - Dundee Capital Markets

Analyst · Dundee Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Good morning. Thanks for the call. So just a question on your long-term outlook. You had guided to I think 48 million ounces of silver equivalent for 2018.

Randy Smallwood

Management

Right.

Chris Lichtenheldt - Dundee Capital Markets

Analyst · Dundee Capital Markets. Your line is open.

If we look at the, sort of, your last numbers in your presentation, you'd recently guided to 2017 guidance of 42.5 million. So it's a pretty significant tick up from 2017 to 2018. Just wondering if you can talk a little bit about what are the big step ups there?

Gary Brown

Management

Sure. There's four contributors to that growth. The first one, of course, is Penasquito is scheduled to have a very good -- it supposed to be into some high grades through that period. And so, we should see better production from Penasquito than what we have seen. Rosemont, of course, is going to come on-stream and will be contributing it, were scheduled before but as it ramps up it will definitely be contributing more from that basis. The other one that I think most people may not be accounting for is the Pampacancha zone at Constancia. The bulk of the gold value in the entire Constancia asset or operation comes from the Pampacancha zone, which is going to be mined early. And so, this gold stream that we've done -- that we've just recently completed on the Constancia project, the bulk of that value will be delivered in the first few years of operations as Pampacancha is mined and processed through. So we will see a nice positive on the first few years of Constancia production. And that's -- its going to have one of its best years of production in 2018. And then Salobo itself continues to ramp up as the second line comes on-stream this year and continues to move forward. And as they work their way down into the core of the ore body, we're going to see no continued production both -- increases in production both from slightly higher tonnages as they continue to optimize going forward, and also better grades. So the combination of all those assets really contributes to that growth.

Chris Lichtenheldt - Dundee Capital Markets

Analyst · Dundee Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Okay, great. Thanks. Good. In general, do you expect sort of production growth each year between now and sort of 2017?

Gary Brown

Management

2015 is going to be a very exciting year for us because Constancia is coming on at the end of this year, and so we should see pretty close to a full year's commercial production next year. Now it is producing a concentrate so there's going to be again a bit of a build up in inventory in produced, but not yet delivered. And then, we see the expansions, of course. Salobo starting their second line in the middle of this year. It's going to take a while for that to reach 100% production, but it will be stepping up in 2015 itself going forward. And you see San Dimas with its continued expansions. The success that Primero has had down there is very promising. I mean in 2013 it was still our largest producer. So it’s a pretty impressive asset and they continue to invest into that asset. And it always delivers on investment until we're seeing a benefit of that one forward. So 2015 will be a nice year of growth for Silver Wheaton. And then I'd say the next step is of course Rosemont coming on-stream. And all depending on the permit, but we feel it's about a two-year construction period from the point the permits received and financing gets put in place, and so that will also be a nice little boost.

Chris Lichtenheldt - Dundee Capital Markets

Analyst · Dundee Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Okay. Thanks. And just one last question actually, we talked about -- you talked about before a couple of times the -- through the pipeline building up on new assets as the sliver works it's way through. Has there ever been consideration given to structuring deals that you start picking up ounces at the back-end right from day one to sort of avoid the lag that can last several quarters?

Gary Brown

Management

Sorry. So you are suggesting that we would just tie up to production and take delivery on whatever is produced irrelevant of what comes out of the smelter at the end?

Chris Lichtenheldt - Dundee Capital Markets

Analyst · Dundee Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Well, no. I guess I'm saying because I think the way I understand the deals were if you sign a new deal in Vale you don't get ounces from day one because you have to work -- they work their way out of the mine through the entire milling process through to the smelter which can take a fair bit of time. So you have sort of a lag of I guess several quarters for all that 'pipeline' builds up. Could you structure deal so that you can start participating in ounces from day one somehow?

Gary Brown

Management

We have to, yeah. I mean, we have to have a sort of a control point and we prefer to have the control point at the mill itself in terms of what gets process through the mill itself going forward. And that way we can assess and monitor progress. So I think that that's the best point because that's -- if you start trying to chase concentrate thing, they can get sold all over the world. Dory gets sold all over the world, right. So the one point that you can actually most accurately measure what's being produced at any mining operation is the point that it enters and enters into the mill and in process. So that's the best way to manage these contracts.

Chris Lichtenheldt - Dundee Capital Markets

Analyst · Dundee Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Okay. That makes sense. Thanks a lot.

Gary Brown

Management

Thanks Chris.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from John Tumazos with John Tumazos Independent Research. Your line is open.

John Tumazos - John Tumazos Independent Research

Analyst · John Tumazos Independent Research. Your line is open.

Congratulations on the improvement in net debt and not getting impaired.

Randy Smallwood

Management

Thank you.

John Tumazos - John Tumazos Independent Research

Analyst · John Tumazos Independent Research. Your line is open.

In terms of the Sandspring Resources, new investment and other early stage projects that might come in the future, what is your criteria for the timetable that you expect production to -- and your revenue to arrive? Silver Wheaton hasn't done any better or worse, but you've gotten nicked with Pas qua and Rosemont delays. Royal Gold has done Seabridge and recently bought a piece of El Morro, which don't look like they are in the next five years. And increasingly, we're little sensitive to having projects that have got a common stream in a reasonable time horizon.

Randy Smallwood

Management

Yeah, John, the general structure and I look through each of those assets you listed off. I mean something like Rosemont where it is subject to permitting delays. We haven't contributed any capital for that, and will once construction starts. So the delays haven't cost Silver Wheaton shareholders in the sense that we haven’t actually contributed capital into that project going forward. Now Sandspring, which is -- what you started off with in the Toroparu Project, what we look at there is a very small investment, but the optionality of being able to increase it up to represent 10% of the gold production from that asset when it gets to that stage. And so, we think that mechanism is strong. What we essentially do is defer the bulk of the value, the largest portion of the value of our investment until the point when we have a better idea after the timing of the production, so to speak, the construction and subsequent production from those mines itself. And so, our focus is still to try and tie the bulk of our investments at the construction stage on these development type projects. What we see with this early deposit structure that we completed with Sandspring is a way to get our foot into the door. We think it works very well in today's market. When I look at the junior explorers and developers out there, they are not getting a lot of market support in the -- with respect to their share prices. So they're not interested in issuing shares at these prices. And this is, I would argue, probably the only way for them to get financing to build these projects, to get these projects to the feasibility stage at which point then they can make a construction decision and that's when we will step in with the bulk of our value. So for a very small portion upfront it's enough to get Sandspring over the hurdle and into -- get to the bank of a feasibility stage, but it also gives us the optionality of being a participant and start supporting them through the construction stage itself. And so, just -- we do really try and put a focus on making sure that most of our investment is tied at the construction stage or later.

John Tumazos - John Tumazos Independent Research

Analyst · John Tumazos Independent Research. Your line is open.

Could you walk us through the phases and decisions points in the Toroparu Project? And roughly how many years from your revenue do you think it is right now?

Randy Smallwood

Management

Well, sure. The first phase, of course, is our commitment to them and supplying them $13.5 million to -- that's an assessment. That's what they need to complete the feasibility study, which they expect to have by the end of this year. So we, of course, had a good look at the project and try and identify what risks there are in the project. Still we're very comfortable with the work that's been done on the project. We think Sandspring has done a great job from that perspective. And that a lot of the risk has been taken out of, it may not be detailed yet in a feasibility study, but they've done some very good work on both the reserves, the resource, the metallurgy and the processing side. So our next decision is at the stage that they complete the bankable feasibility study, they then begin sourcing other sources of financing and get to the point of making a construction decision. Whether that happens next year, whether that happens two years from now, it will be entirely dependent on the price of gold. I think that's the key trigger point or key decision point in terms of what drives that going forward. But we don't put any further money in until they make that decision. And once they make that decision, we will step up and well we'll have the option to review the whole thing. We're pretty confident that we will be stepping up and contributing towards those capital expenses to get that build going forward. So it's really, sort of, a two-step process. It's a small portion of the upfront payment and delivered at this stage. It means that they did not have to issue shares and dilute their current shareholders, which is who we all work for. They didn't have to dilute those current shareholders with any type of a very expensive financing. They get to the point where the company should be valued on the value of the project which at a bankable feasibility stage is much higher confidence level in terms of what the value of that project is. And hopefully that's going to be enough for them to -- we believe this project -- given the right gold prices at that stage, we believe this project will be financeable at that stage and we will be happy to step-up and contribute our portion of it going forward. And it's as I said a two-step process that gives us great optionality for what I would argue very little exposure up front.

John Tumazos - John Tumazos Independent Research

Analyst · John Tumazos Independent Research. Your line is open.

Thank you.

Randy Smallwood

Management

Thank you, John.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions) The next question comes from Dan Rollins with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Dan Rollins - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Yes. Thanks very much. Gary just wondering if you might be able to provide some insight into when you could end up paying cash taxes on your Canadian-based streams given your -- the loss carry-forwards on your corporate G&A?

Gary Brown

Management

At current prices we're probably not -- and with the interest that we're paying now, we're reducing Canadian tax base. So, it really is dependent upon commodity prices, but I'd estimate it's somewhere in the neighborhood of 2017-2018 before we're paying cash taxes.

Dan Rollins - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Okay, perfect. That's very helpful. And then Randy wonder if you might be able to provide a little bit of color on Yauliyacu, the ominous Yauliyacu that always seems to produce more than it’s sold. Understand they keep switching over the blend and the concentrate mix there. How much -- how many ounces do you currently have in inventory or produced but not sold from Yauliyacu, do you have that number handy?

Randy Smallwood

Management

No, sorry, I don't have that number handy.

Gary Brown

Management

Yes, it’s about 1.5 million ounces.

Randy Smallwood

Management

Thanks Gary.

Dan Rollins - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Any clarity on when we might be able to see anything that'd come through?

Randy Smallwood

Management

Sorry, what was that?

Dan Rollins - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Do you have any clarity -- is Glencore giving you any sort of clarity or guidance of when we could see those ounces starting to come through the balance of the bottom line?

Randy Smallwood

Management

I think what you're going to see at that asset, you have to remember this is Glencore, which has plenty of experience in trading commodities and concentrates and such. And so I think that Glencore and then you go back and look at the scale of Glencore and the size of Glencore, this operation probably doesn't suffer from needing to move concentrates out to pay the bills, etcetera. And so I think Glencore is very opportunistic, in terms of when they move these concentrates and I think we're just going to continue to see a very volatile trading and delivery schedule around Yauliyacu. Some quarters it will be very low and -- because they've seen the right opportunity and moved on it, other opportunities it will -- other quarters it will build up. And so I just -- we've just gotten used to it. The thing is it produces both an attractive bulk concentrate and attractive individual concentrates and so they are a company that's got extensive trading networks around the world and sometimes they see better opportunities for both of those style of concentrates, so we just patiently wait. We know that it will eventually get delivered. The asset is a good asset, but it’s been operating for close to 200 years now continuously. So, we continue to see promise there and see that it will eventually deliver those ounces, but I do think that it's going to be something that's going to kick around anywhere between close to zero on some quarters and other quarters could be up as high as 1.5, 2.

Dan Rollins - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Okay. That's perfect. And then just maybe with respect to the Vale streams, how have the payable levels sort of matched to your expectations and sort of the timing of the difference between production and sales? Is that sort of tracking online with what you had anticipated going into the deal relative to where we are a year later?

Randy Smallwood

Management

Yes, in terms of payables or metallurgical recovery? Metallurgical recoveries are slightly better than what we expected. Payables are on target.

Dan Rollins - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Okay, perfect. That's great guys. Thanks a lot and have a great weekend.

Randy Smallwood

Management

Thank you very much, Dan. And thank you, operator. 2014 will be an exciting year for Silver Wheaton, as we begin to bear the fruit of some of our recent project investments. As mentioned, we’re looking forward to seeing expansion San Dimas, Sudbury, Salobo come on line as well as startup of Constancia later this year. Also quite excited about the opportunities we’re seeing on -- for further acquisitions. This is a ripe environment right now and with the recent strength in silver and gold in the face of a stronger U.S. dollar, we believe our future is quite bright. So, thank you for dialing in everyone and stay tuned.

Operator

Operator

This concludes this conference call for today. Thank you for participating. Please disconnect your lines.