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WPP plc (WPP)

Q1 2014 Earnings Call· Fri, May 9, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. And welcome to the Wausau Paper 2014 First Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. Now I’d like to turn over to your host, Director of Investor Relations, Perry Grueber. Please go ahead.

Perry Grueber

Management

Thank you, Sean. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you are joining us. I’m pleased to be here today with our new leadership team, Mike Burandt, our Chief Executive Officer; Matt Urmanski, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Sherri Lemmer, our Chief Financial Officer. After our prepared remarks we look forward to your questions. This call is being webcast and slides are provided to summarize key elements of our presentation. Your webcast viewer should allow you to download these slides and this morning’s earnings release, both of which are also available from the Investors section of our website at wausaupaper.com. During the call we will make forward-looking statements that are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties, including those outlined and referenced -- and references on slide two of this morning's presentation. Additionally, our presentation refers to certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these measures to GAAP is provided in the appendix of the presentation. With those formalities out of the way, I'd like to now introduce Mr. Michael Burandt, Wausau Paper's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Mike joined the Board of Wausau Paper in 2012 and has brought a wealth of tissue industry experience to the strategic governance of our company. Most notably, Mike, served as the Head of Georgia-Pacific's consumer and away-from-home towel and tissue business for many years. Now as CEO of Wausau, he is uniquely qualified to implement our strategy, lead a return to stronger levels of performance and advance our goals of increasing shareholder value. Mike?

Mike Burandt

Management

Thank you, Perry. Before I begin, I'd like to provide some comments on the first quarter. I'd like to say a few words about why I'm very excited, frankly, to have taken on the CEO role here at Wausau. As Perry has said, I've been on the Wausau Paper Board for two years and have a number of year’s experience, 20 exactly, in tissue business running GP’s tissue operations, both the way-from-home and at-home, as well as the DIXIE brand business. The reason I took this job is that I see the enormous potential for the business and I'm confident that while there is still work to be done to improve efficiency of the operations, Wausau Paper is headed in the right direction and has significant upside opportunities. This is a good business. There's a good management team in place here. The new ATMOS machine that we have started up is on the start-up curve, but most importantly, I'm impressed with the technology and the unique positioning that this investment is going to provide to Wausau Paper. It enables us to compete in a premium and ultra-premium market with a sheet that's made from recycled fiber and equals the TAD sheet made from virgin fiber. It equals all the measurements of quality of a TAD sheet. No one else can make that claim and here is something else very important. The technology advantage clearly outweighs the start-up cost of this machine. We have just finished, frankly, a cost optimization analysis of the ATMOS machine. The analysis looks at the costs and inventory impacts of varying ATMOS run lengths based on our current product mix. Given the base set of operations, the optimal ATMOS run lengths is 28 days. However, the cost -- competitive cost curve is relatively flat from the…

Sherri Lemmer

Management

Thank you, Mike. Our sales volume as measured in cases of paper products shipped was a record first quarter level of 3,854,000 cases. As Mike mentioned, this volume represents an increase of 2.2% over the first quarter of 2013, in a period when the overall away-from-home market was portably down approximately 1%. Strategic product shipments, those products that are sold in conjunction with our proprietary dispensing systems or that are produced from our premium substrates were up 3.9% in the first quarter of this year compared to the first quarter of last year. Despite our volume growth, the overall net sales line was relatively flat compared to the first quarter of 2013. Competitive pricing pressure while expected was greater than we anticipated, partly due to the excess availability of lower cost parent roles in the market. This excess availability is a result of capacity additions that resulted in lower asset utilization in the industry. We were unfavorably impacted about $600,000 in the first quarter by the Canadian currency exchange rate where we have exposure on about 10% of our total sales. So combine, these pricing elements drove an average net selling price decline of approximately 3% in the Q1 to Q1 comparison. On an EBITDA basis, in addition to the elements that impacted net sales, benefits of operational improvements and our costs realignment and reduction efforts helped to offset cost side negative variances like the estimated costs associated with the prolonged winter conditions. The result was an adjusted EBITDA of $5.6 million this year compared to an adjusted EBITDA of $5.9 million a year ago. The quantification of the various impacts on quarterly comparisons for continuing operations is provided on an adjusted earnings per share basis. For the first quarter of 2013, the net loss was $3.7 million or $0.08…

Matt Urmanski

Management

Thank you, Sherri. Good morning. Today we like to cover in greater detail our outlook for the second quarter. Specifically, I will cover our sales growth expectations, progress on our new paper machine and conclude with the key assumptions for the second quarter of 2014. As Sherry mentioned earlier, Wausau's volume growth was up 2.2%. New products introduced last year allowed us to fare fair better than the away-from-home market overall which shrunk approximately 1% primarily from the effects of a tough winter season. More importantly, growth within our strategic product category grew 3.9%. The key driver to that growth is directly attributable to the relaunch of a DublNature brand, now primarily using our new ATMOS-based substrate. Since that introduction, volume grew 33% in the second half of 2013 and 40% in the first quarter of 2014. These data points are a clear indicator of the market acceptance of the DublNature product family. Thus far here in the second quarter, order and shipment activity has been strong. Our confidence in accelerated sales growth continues. Thus we are forecasting similar double major growth in the second quarter of 2014, now nearly a full year since the relaunch of the DublNature brand. I will talk about the progress of our new paper machine in more detail in a few moments. For one of the clear focus is in the first quarter of 2014 was to commercialize a second new line of products using the machines ATMOS capabilities. With the success of those trials, I'm pleased to announce that our new line of Artisan premium towel is being launched here in May. The Artisan product line is designed to compete with the most premium products in the away-from-home market. Artisan is uniquely positioned to be the only true premium product that is 100%…

Mike Burandt

Management

Thank you, Matt. So in summary, let me just say this. Our results for the first quarter were clearly not satisfactory and some impacts were not within the company's control. We need to execute better on our strategy. While I've been the CEO for a short period of time, it is clear to me that Wausau has a fantastic combination of brands, employees, assets and distributors. I have the utmost confidence that Wausau can deliver superb performance and substantial value over the long-term. That is our commitment. With that, I'll turn it back to Perry.

Perry Grueber

Management

Thanks Mike. Sean, will you poll for any questions please?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Your first question will come from the line of Mike Roxland from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Mike Roxland

Analyst

Thanks very much. Congrats, Mike and Mark on your new roles. Tell me if I'm right. Sounds like you're dialing back the production and support product categories on your new machine. Is that what I'm hearing? Because certainly that's been, I believe at least, a little bit of a headwind that the company's experienced. Because it sounds like you were -- the company itself was going in between producing support product categories and the strategic product categories on the new machine, which led to higher cost. But it sounds like the strategy with respect to the new machine has now changed.

Mike Burandt

Management

Matt?

Matt Urmanski

Management

Yes. Relative to that question, really as you think about last year 2013, we were very deliberate about being aggressive with growing within our EcoSoft product category, which would also include those support products. In the second half, we had very strong product category growth. That is not a change in our direction. Ultimately, when we have the DublNature products and now fully in place for a full year and now with the launch of the Artisan products, our focus has been and continues to be on proprietary dispenser products and strategic products. Last year was a very necessary step though, to create momentum and growth into the launch of these two new brands.

Mike Roxland

Analyst

And so with the Artisan, you're running on the new machine. So you're basically because of the rollout of these new brands, you're now spending less time with new machine producing these support product categories?

Matt Urmanski

Management

That's fair to say that the machines more full of the new ATMOS substrate paper today than certainly a year ago. Now that we have a full year of DublNature with strong growth, and then ultimately the launch of the Artisan products here in May.

Mike Roxland

Analyst

Got it. Thank you. Why continue to -- why not try to minimize the production of your support product categories, given the headwinds that you're facing in that particular product?

Matt Urmanski

Management

One of the things that's very important for us is when we support a distributor, we need to support all their product needs and we believe we're uniquely positioned with our good, better, best strategy to really provide all the products that they need within the marketplace. So those conventional products, those near premium as Mike covered earlier in the call, premium and ultra-premium products. So it's important for us to have that full portfolio to service all their needs and for them to come to Wausau for their solutions.

Mike Roxland

Analyst

Got it. Okay. And then two final questions and I'll turn it over. How did your converting operations fair during the quarter, especially given the new base sheets and other products? I think the converting ops are still in transition and getting up the curve as of last quarter.

Mike Burandt

Management

Converting operations obviously are affected by the quality of the sheet, as we are having problems learning the ATMOS manufacturing. It was having impacts on our converting operations. We are seeing improvements in converting efficiencies now, as the quality of the sheet is improving coming off the ATMOS mode, substantial improvement. And we should see even greater efficiencies with this long run we're doing at ATMOS right now. We should see much greater efficiencies in our converting operations because the paper coming of that machine is much better right now.

Mike Roxland

Analyst

Would you say that you've started to see those efficiencies in March and April?

Mike Burandt

Management

We're seeing it right now in May, a big time in the middle of April it started and we are seeing it now, yes.

Mike Roxland

Analyst

Got it. And then last question actually, Mike, regarding capital allocation. Has there been any change in the company's thinking regarding capital allocation? A few quarters ago, the company announced that it would first focus its free cash flow on additional investments such as dispensers. And I think that was targeted at $25 million to $30 million, then you had converting capacity to $15 million to $20 million and then there was the potential for opportunistic acquisitions. All that was the primary focus of the company rather than actually targeting free cash flow to shareholders, is that still the strategy of the company or has there been a change now that you've taken the helm of the company? Has there been a change in thinking about how the company's going to use free cash flow?

Mike Burandt

Management

Well, we're constantly evaluating cash flow policies. We will discuss with the Board. We have a policy that says, we want to return cash to shareholders. We need to determine that methodology. We need to well understand the real need for growth capital. And we will reevaluate our cast position on a regular basis. There's been basically no change in our structure or our philosophy on cash capital return to the shareholders. We will evaluate regularly what that is.

Mike Roxland

Analyst

So as the -- as what I read out there in terms of the company's thinking originally in terms of spending on the additional investments and converting capacity and the potential acquisitions, that's going to be the primary focus of free cash flow first and foremost. And then if there's any excess free cash flow that's when you consider returning that cash to shareholders?

Mike Burandt

Management

In some form, yes.

Mike Roxland

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much. Good luck in the quarter.

Mike Burandt

Management

Thanks Mike.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question will come from the line of Elie Mishaan with Corsair Capital Management. Please go ahead.

Elie Mishaan

Analyst

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question. Michael, you mentioned in your prepared remarks that you have a goal, that's not guidance but you have a goal of 20% EBITDA margin. I think I got that correct. I'm curious, what realistically is -- I'm not looking for an exact date, but just what's sort of a realistic timeframe to think about getting there in terms of how long it takes to get the work done on the new machine and get it running efficiently and optimizing the assets there?

Mike Burandt

Management

I think it will be a gradual improvement. We know we're seeing it in the second quarter. And I believe that we'll see a gradual improvement coming from cost efficiencies. We'll see in the mills. Giving you a timeframe would be difficult to do. What I will tell you is that we'll see a small continuous improvement in our EBITDA margin.

Elie Mishaan

Analyst

All right. Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question then will come from the line of [Dan Cowen] (ph) with Sidoti & Company. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Can you guys hear me?

Mike Burandt

Management

Yes, Dan, how are you?

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

I am well. Thanks for taking the question. Just, I guess, since we are talking about free cash flow, are you guys still CapEx guidance $35 million for the year?

Sherri Lemmer

Management

Right now, what we would say for the year would be about $25 million in capital.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

$25 million in CapEx, that’s lower from what you said last quarter, right?

Sherri Lemmer

Management

Yes. Again, it’s -- we're right around that $25 million mark.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay.

Sherri Lemmer

Management

As part of our process we obviously evaluate capital on an ongoing basis, and that's the projection at this point.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. Fair enough. And I think you're expecting flat sort of pulled fiber costs in 2Q, is that correct?

Mike Burandt

Management

As we look at the second quarter, we see fiber really being moderate to the experience we had in the first quarter.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Right.

Mike Burandt

Management

I think longer term as you look at Q3 and Q4, you look at a modest increase.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. And probably you’re not going to tell me, but can you remind us at sort of what percent of your pulp do you buy kind of under contract versus on the spot market?

Mike Burandt

Management

We buy really three sources of fiber, parent rolls, recycled pulp and then waste paper. It's really a mixed of I would say in general terms probably less than 50% under contract.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Less than 50% under contract?

Mike Burandt

Management

Of that combined fiber basket.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Which is probably like 40% of your COG? Is that safe to assume?

Mike Burandt

Management

Say that again?

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

The fiber basket would be 40% of your cost of sales?

Mike Burandt

Management

I would say that 40% to 45% rate is pretty close.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

40's pretty close? Okay, great. You said trend accelerated, March and April, so it sounds like May is going well. So did April accelerate out of March?

Mike Burandt

Management

We have clearly seen a pick up in order activity. I think the seasonal pressure that was there in Q1 is behind us. One thing that’s important to note that away-from-home business is not really a possibility to regain lost volume in the quarter because of the weather impacts. But we are seeing a very robust pattern as we entered into the second quarter, both from I think the continued launches but also getting past the weather-related issues in the first quarter.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. Makes sense. And then kind of lastly, more of a philosophical question, I know you just got asked on the long-term EBITDA margin is 20%. I guess just looking sort of at the back half, 5.6, 1Q, let's call it 10 million, 2Q, and then I think your last EBITDA range guidance for the year was 16% to 19%. So assume flat sales when you hit the low end at 16%, that would imply that you would have to do $40 million EBITDA, let's call it, in the back half. And I think you did $22 million back half in 2013. So maybe you could provide some comments on that or thoughts just to kind of see how we get -- how we bridge the second half last year to this year? What kind of has to happen?

Mike Burandt

Management

Well, what has to happen -- the launch of artisan's going to have a big impact on our business in the second half. That's going to have a marked improvement in our margins. And I'm firmly convinced that we are going to see operating efficiencies come into play in the second half as we are doing some of these issues that we've been talking about. Again, I don't want to provide any strong guidance. I will just tell you from what I am seeing right now and from what we are working on, I feel quite confident and bullish about the direction we are headed and that we will see margin improvements as we go forward.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. Excellent. Appreciate that. Good luck with the rest of the quarter.

Mike Burandt

Management

Thanks, Dan.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) And we have a question from the line of Wayne Archambo with Monarch Partners. Please go ahead.

Wayne Archambo

Analyst

Yes. You talked about 20% EBITDA margin goal. Could you share with us whether or not senior management's compensation is directly tied to that goal?

Mike Burandt

Management

Yes. It is.

Wayne Archambo

Analyst

It’s done on an annual basis. And, I mean, could you get any -- can you elaborate any further on that please?

Sherri Lemmer

Management

Well, we have various compensation plans. So we have short-term compensation plans and we also have longer-term compensation plans. In the form of primarily stock incentives or stock-based incentive compensation so ties tied to equity and what we provide back to our shareholders, so a total shareholder return. There are also near-term compensation that is truly based on the financial performance of the company and based on metrics such as our EBITDA performance.

Wayne Archambo

Analyst

I’m just trying to get a sense of your sense of urgency to achieve that goal, because you were somewhat evasive regarding the timeline on the 20% number.

Mike Burandt

Management

Well, I'm not trying to be evasive, but I'm trying to be realistic to say how quickly can we get this going to those levels? We will see. Again, we will see a continuous improvement, I believe that the 10% to 11% in Q 2. I believe that will escalate into Q3 and Q4 based on the plans that we’re working on right now, but we have a sense of urgency of getting this done, but I want it to be something that's going to be long-lasting.

Wayne Archambo

Analyst

Okay. Again, like I said, is it five years away, is it 10 years away? We really have no sense of, if that's even a realistic number. So that's the reason for the questions.

Mike Burandt

Management

It's not five years away. It's much less than that.

Wayne Archambo

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) And at this time, I show no one queuing up for questions.

Mike Burandt

Management

Okay. Thank you, Sean. We appreciate everyone taking part in today's discussion. On behalf of my colleagues here in Harrisburg, Middletown and Mosinee, and our customers across North America we thank you for your continuing support of Wausau Paper. I will be available the balance of the day for any follow-up questions you might have. Have a great weekend. Thank you. Sean?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this conference will be available for replay after 11 a.m. today through May 16, 2014, at midnight. You may access the AT&T Teleconference Replay System at any time by dialing 1-800-475-6701 and entering the access code of 325608. International participants please dial 320-365-3844. Those numbers again are 1-800-475-6701 and 320-365-3844, with an access code of 325608. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Executive Teleconference. You may now disconnect.