Earnings Labs

WPP plc (WPP)

Q4 2024 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 27, 2025

$17.62

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Transcript

Mark Read

Operator

So, good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us in Sea Containers today who you found it busy coming in for our preliminary results for 2024 and strategic outlook for 2025. Now the past year has been extremely busy, and it's thrown up both challenges and opportunities. But throughout this, we remain focused on executing our strategy to deliver long-term sustainable growth and through this value to our shareholders. I'm going to walk you through the key highlights. Joanne will then talk you through our financial performance, and I'll come back with GroupM CEO, Brian Lesser, to talk about the strategic progress we've made this year and is yet to come. We'll follow that by taking your questions. Now before I do that, I would like to make two points: first, to thank Tom Waldron, who's sitting here with us for his hard work for us over the past couple of years in leading our IR team and also welcome Tom Singlehurst, who's crossed sides to join us who's sitting in the front row, for those of you who are not here, he's here. So before we start, we should just look at this cautionary statement and read that carefully. So turning to the highlights. Why we've achieved a lot in 2024. I do know that the main focus for many of you and actual has come up in the Q&A will be our net revenue growth, which came in at minus 1%, consistent with the lower end of our guidance range. We were conservative when we guided you at Q3. Now this performance does mask competing tailwinds and headwinds. Now I'd highlight a robust performance within our top 25 clients, which grew 2% and supported solid growth within media and production. On the other side of the coin,…

Joanne Wilson

Analyst

Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. Let me take you through some more detail on our financial results for 2024, and I will start on Slide 7. So like-for-like revenue less pass-through costs fell 1% for the full year 2024. At the end of Q3, our year-to-date like-for-like was a decline of 0.5%. Q4 performance was disappointingly soft and took our full year like-for-like to the bottom end of our guidance range. Despite the softer top line performance, we delivered a 40 basis point improvement in headline operating margin to 15%, benefiting from structural cost savings and continued disciplined cost management whilst driving incremental investment in WPP Open in AI and in data. We also improved our operating cash flow conversion to 86%, benefiting from strong working capital management. That, together with the sale of FGS Global resulted in year-end net debt of GBP 1.7 billion, a GBP 0.8 billion reduction year-on-year. Turning to the headline income statement on Slide 8. Overall reported revenue less pass-through costs was GBP 11.4 billion, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year. FX contributed to a 3.1 percentage point drag with M&A, a further 0.1 percentage point headwind, leaving a like-for-like decline of 1%.

Operator

Operator

[Technical Difficulty] Apologies, everyone. It seems like we have lost connections with our speakers line. Please stand by while we try to reconnect. Call will resume shortly.

Joanne Wilson

Analyst

Okay. Sorry about that. Operating profit margin of 15% benefited from that 0.4 percentage point improvement on a constant currency basis and was up 0.2 percentage points on a reported basis. Maybe down the P&L, a reminder that income from associates excludes any contribution from Kantar in accordance with IAS 28 due to nil carrying value on our balance sheet. Net finance costs of GBP 280 million increased during the year, reflecting higher interest rates following our successful bond refinancing in 2024. Our effective tax rate increased as expected by 1 percentage point to 28% and noncontrolling interest of GBP 87 million were flat year-on-year. Headline diluted EPS of 88.3p was down 5.9% on a reported basis and broadly flat like-for-like. Consistent with our dividend policy, the Board has recommended a flat final dividend of 24.4p given a total dividend of 39.4p for 2024, which is in line with 2023 and represents a cash return to shareholders of over GBP 420 million. Moving to Slide 9 and the reconciliation between our headline and reported operating profit. Headline operating profit of GBP 1.7 billion is adjusted for goodwill impairment of GBP 237 million, which relates to AKQA and other smaller agencies. Reported gains on disposal before tax were GBP 329 million, was GBP 275 million arising from the disposal of FGS and the adjustment for litigation and other charges include GBP 68 million relating to ongoing legal matters and claims. Finally, restructuring and transformation costs of GBP 277 million includes costs relating to the creation of VML and Burson and the simplification of GroupM as well as costs associated with our ongoing ERP and IT transformation and property-related costs. As a result, our operating profit increased from GBP 531 million in 2023 to GBP 1.3 billion in 2024. Moving on now…

Mark Read

Operator

So thank you very much, Joanne. So at our Capital Markets Day just over a year ago, we framed our strategy as being based around these 4 strategic pillars. So let's look at the progress we made on each of these in turn. On the first, AI, data and technology, 2024 was really about cementing WPP Open as a single technology vision, platform and team. And I think it's a significant departure from where we've been historically where technology was often developed at an agency, sometimes even at an office level. This is allowing us to build a single platform that spans the whole company, integrates how we work and also how we work with our clients with great investment in WPP Open now at GBP 250 million per annum we're seeing greater adoption with 33,000 people using it in December and increasing deployment in our clients. And I'd remind you, as Joanne pointed out that, that incremental investment came within delivering 40 basis points of margin improvement over the course of the year. And personally, I was every day showing CEOs and CMOs how it can transform their marketing efforts. On the second pillar, the benefits of creative transformation are coming through for our clients with the top 10 clients growing 2.8% throughout the year, and the top 25 clients growing 2%, a tangible sign that our investment is bearing fruit. Media studio also played a crucial role in our Amazon, J&J, Unilever wins, 3 of the very biggest media reviews in the second half of the year. Now new business performance is the proverbial supertanker, but I do remain encouraged by the improved momentum in our efforts in the second half of the year. Now as you know, 2024 was a year of heavy lifting in terms of…

Brian Lesser

Analyst

Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everybody. I'm Brian Lesser, Global CEO of GroupM. It's great to be here with all of you today. I'm excited to share GroupM's vision and how we're driving priorities to improve our offering. Today, I'm going to focus on two key areas. The first is GroupM's 5 strategic priorities. And the second is our data strategy. So let's dive in. Since rejoining GroupM, I've engaged extensively with our clients to understand their needs. The conversations have been insightful and several key themes have emerged. Clients are asking, how can we drive effectiveness through AI and technology? How can we enhance efficiency through greater integration? What structure makes it easier for clients to work with us? To address these, we have taken significant steps, but above all, we remain relentlessly focused on client retention and growth. Let's start with client retention. We are focusing on making client experiences more seamless and frictionless while delivering exceptional value. On the client growth and new business side, we are driving success through creating the most competitive offering backed by our investments in data and technology and leveraging the strongest global network with WPP's assets for multi-market advertisers. We've seen early progress with recent wins, including Johnson & Johnson in the U.S., retaining and growing the Unilever business in the U.S., expanding our relationship with Unilever globally and securing Amazon's global business outside of the Americas. Data, Technology and Open Media Studio were fundamental to winning and expanding with these businesses. To drive change in these focus areas, I've defined 5 key priorities: first, data and technology. We are fearlessly embracing AI and technology with a future-focused Open platform designed for tomorrow. WPP Open and Media Studio from the backbone of this approach, and we're driving towards 100% adoption from…

Mark Read

Operator

All right. So thank you very much, Brian. I'm sure there'll be a lot of questions for you in the Q&A, particularly on the refreshed data approach from ID to AI. So let me outline our priorities for 2025. And look, I need to start by acknowledging again that 2024 did not end quite as we wanted. And even if the minus 1% was technically in the guidance range, I know that it will be a disappointment. That said, we do need to look at the enormous progress we've made in 2024 in terms of the heavy lifting and network consolidation simplification and the step-up in data and technology and the progress we made on those financial metrics. As I look at 2025, there are really 3 things that we need to do as a company, deliver on the promise of WPP Open, get GroupM back to growth and win more new business. And each of these are really related. The WPP Open, we need to push it harder. We're investing more, but we need to get all of our client-facing people using it by the end of the year. I shouldn't underestimate the progress, though. I don't think there's many companies out there that have 40,000 of their own people using a proprietary AI platform every month. So that is an achievement. For GroupM, you heard Brian's plan. He has a great sense of urgency around data, around proprietary media and around new business with a focus on the U.S. And in new business, we need to continue to use WPP Open to deliver and improve our new business success. In the last year, we saw pitches with WPP Open at the heart having a 10% increase in success rate. This year, we don't want any pictures without it.…

A - Mark Read

Analyst

Thanks for listening. With that, we're available to take your questions, which we do both in the room and on the phone. I think we'll do it sitting down and we'll start with, I guess, Adam Berlin.

Adam Berlin

Analyst

I've got three questions if I can. I think the first question.

Mark Read

Operator

Can you introduce yourself?

Adam Berlin

Analyst

Adam Berlin from UBS. The midpoint of the guidance for next year is roughly the same as what you delivered in 2024. And I think everyone is a bit confused about why we're not going to get an improvement next year, given you did do better in account wins in '24 than '23. China is a really easy comp and there are a few other things that kind of went wrong this year. Can you just give us a bit more of a breakdown, maybe by segment or just help us understand why you're not guiding for an improvement in organic growth? That's the first question. Second, a similar type question on margins. How are you going to deliver flat margins with negative growth? Does that mean staff incentives are going to remain low again? What else is there that means we should believe that you can deliver the flat margins in that environment? And, third question is you helpfully give this metric of average net debt divided by headline EBITDA to give us a kind of average leverage. And that number is still quite high in '24, but that's probably because the FGS revenue receipts went in there. So can you give us any guidance on where you expect that metric to be at the end of '25? Because I assume that's how you think of capital allocation.

Mark Read

Operator

Joanne, if you take those and then I will --

Joanne Wilson

Analyst

Well, let me answer the last one first because it's easy. So our average leverage, we'd expect that to come down towards the midpoint of our target range, which is 1.5 to 1.75x. As you said, the FGS proceeds were received in December, so a very small impact on the average metric in 2024. On our guidance, we've guided to flat to minus 2%. And you're right, the midpoint is in line with 2024. As we think about the bottom end and the top end of that guidance, there's a couple of things to consider. Q4 was softer for us than we were expecting. We talked about softer client discretionary spend. And in the first couple of months of the year, the macro uncertainty has not improved. If anything in the last few weeks, I think it's got more uncertain. And that makes us cautious, particularly in the first half from the perspective of project-based spend and client discretionary spend. And that's really reflected in that range on the bottom end. The second factor is our net new business. Look, we were encouraged by the progress we made in the second half on net new business. Net new business for 2024 was flat with 2023, but it was higher in the second half, so skewed to that second half. The important thing to think about net new business is the sequencing of that and how it translates to like-for-like. So in the first half of the year, as I said, we will see a bigger impact from client losses, particularly in the first half of 2024 before we see the full ramp-up of some of those client wins. So some of those client wins, which were fantastic and will be great clients for us, will not start to ramp up…

Adam Berlin

Analyst

They're still low versus history, you are saying, will you disagree?

Joanne Wilson

Analyst

They're low. If you take the last 3 to 4 years, we had max incentive payouts in '21 and a high level of incentive payouts in 2022. So they have come down from those highs, but I don't think it's an issue for us in terms of staff retention, and there are other ways that we look to reward our staff.

Mark Read

Operator

I think just on the year, I'd say, as Joanne said, the new business pipeline is strong. I think there's a number of big opportunities. I do think some of the nature of those means they're taking longer to close than we would expect. They're quite complex, and there's lots of things that go on that are more complex. I think it's important to think about the client -- our growth, as I mentioned, our top 10 clients last year grew at 2.8%. Our top 25 grew 2%, and our top 50 grew 1.1%. So we are seeing good growth from our stronger clients. And I think we did guide to sort of -- we were cautious in Q3 about Q4 because we were concerned about the impact of project-related businesses. And I think that impacted you see through the numbers in the U.K. and some of our businesses. So I think it does need to be cautious in Q1, but I think we are -- we do see a lot of opportunities ahead all this year. And certainly, as a team, we're gunning for the top end of the guidance.

Adrien de Saint Hilaire

Analyst

This is Adrien from Bank of America. So a couple of questions, if you don't mind. To come back on the point about the cuts in discretionary spending in Q4, I think you noted CPG was flat in Q4 versus, I think, it was up 8% in Q3. We had the comments from P&G talking about reducing their fees to agencies because of greater in-housing. Is there a correlation between these 2 information? Secondly, perhaps for Brian, you talked about not necessarily owning traditional ID, but more moving into AI. Do you think WPP needs to make an acquisition or investment into a data set like your competitors have done? And then to come back on the second half story, how much of that is based around existing new business? And how much is it based around new business that you think you're going to gain?

Mark Read

Operator

Why don't you take the first and third question? Joanne, and then Brian.

Joanne Wilson

Analyst

Okay. So again, I'll start with your third question, Adrien, thank you for the questions. On the second half, so we've talked about strengthening performance through the second half. And really, there's a couple of factors within that. China will start to lap softer comps in Q2. And also that sequencing of net new business that you asked about, I would expect it to be an improvement in H2 based on existing net new business. And so as I talked about, those existing losses will hit really from Q1 and some of those wins will only really ramp up from Q2. So we'll see an improved performance in H2 as a result of that. In terms of CPG, look, in 2024, we delivered mid-single-digit growth in CPG. And it's our largest sector, we would expect to see continued growth in 2025. I think again, that growth will be weighted probably to the second half. And what we are seeing in Q4 was about over 50% of that impact was really driven by some of the factors that we've seen earlier in the year, but also that variable incentive that I talked about really impacted that CPG sector. And so I would consider that a one-off. As we go into Q1 and Q2, I think we've seen mixed comments from CPG clients. I think -- and that's reflected perhaps in some of the softer discretionary spend that we saw in Q4. But they are -- many of our clients are talking about continue to invest in their brands, the importance of A&P. And so it's a very long sector for us. In terms of the in-housing and Brian may want to add on this, I think some companies that are talking about in-housing around marketing services and the extent of that is probably an outlier. I think if anything, and Mark quoted a client in his script today, I think we're seeing less of a risk from in-housing as a result of AI and what clients are looking to do is more marketing transformation, more integrated services, working with agencies to help them do that. And we see that as an opportunity. Of course, there's always areas of their marketing services that will make sense for them to in-house, but we're not seeing that as an overriding risk for our business.

Brian Lesser

Analyst

Yes, Adrien, on the question of whether we need to buy a database. I think it's important to understand that the world of advertising is shifting from the notion that you have to ground everything into a traditional CRM database to a world where you can build predictive models using more sources of data and disparate sources of data and data that's not available to a traditional CRM database. So we're very focused on moving from ID to AI. And what I mean by that is if all you ever do is ground something in a cookie or an e-mail address or a mobile ID, then you're severely limiting your view of consumer behavior across an increasingly complex and fragmented marketplace. Data in the CRM database is not going to help you with TikTok or Meta. We have proprietary data at WPP, and that's important. And I'm not saying that having data is not important, but what's just as important, if not more important, is having the technology and the modeling capabilities to build predictive performance at scale to really meet consumers where they are in this fragmenting landscape. So of course, we're constantly looking at what we can acquire in terms of building out that model, but no, we're not focused on a legacy database at the moment.

Mark Read

Operator

Steve?

Steve Liechti

Analyst

Steve Liechti from Deutsche Numis. First question, a few parts really. Just looking back on fiscal '24, just to help us, can you just remind us of the building blocks of the drags that were there and the 9 months figures, I think we sort of talked about various things. So I'm thinking in terms of new business, you said the new business, net-net was about neutral at the 9 months on a kind of pro forma basis. So what would it be at the 12-month period? And also just remind us in terms of what the drag in like-for-like for China and tech was specifically. We can kind of work it out, but just helpful to get your insights there. And then finally, just a question for Brian. In terms of the plan to move to where you want to move to, I know it's -- everything is changing fast. But kind of where are you in that journey in terms of your go-to-market? When do you think your go-to-market strategy will be absolutely right for what you want to do?

Joanne Wilson

Analyst

So I just start with the first one. So thanks for the question, Steve. Look, there were 3 factors that weighed on 2024, and we've talked about those consistently through the year. The first was net new business and client losses, the largest being the healthcare client assignment, which we talked about as having around a 1% like-for-like impact in 2024. That will be fully rolled off by Q2. Second factor you talked about is China. China was an 80 basis point drag for the full year 2024. As we go into 2025, we start to lap softer comps from Q2 for China. I would expect China to continue to be a challenge in H1, Q1 in particular and then potentially stabilizing in the second half, and that's reflected in our guidance. And the third factor we talked about was this project-based spend. And that impacted agencies like AKQA, Landor and Design Bridge, and that was also about an 80 basis point drag. So overall, those 3 factors were about a 250 basis point drag in 2024. I think in net new business, the comment that you're referring to is we've said in the past in a good and bad year, net new business can be plus/minus 1.5%. I think we were asked in Q3 about will it be net neutral going into 2025. And I think as I've explained, I think we'll see a different impact in H1 versus H2, so I think a drag in H1 and more positive in H2.

Steve Liechti

Analyst

Sorry, can I just go back on that particular point. So if we were neutral at the 9-month figures, are we still neutral at the fiscal '24 year-end? And I understand your point about the phasing. But on a [indiscernible] I'm asking what happened in the fourth quarter?

Joanne Wilson

Analyst

So look, I think it's -- if we talked about GBP 4.5 billion net new business in 2024, which was consistent with 2023, that was more weighted to the second half. It doesn't -- I'd love it to, but it doesn't translate right through to like-for-like in the same way every year. So it's a sequencing of those losses and wins that impact. And so in Q4, we had some great wins. We also had a loss. So I think it's broadly similar to where we were at the end of Q3.

Brian Lesser

Analyst

In terms of where we are on our journey and when we'll be sort of satisfied with our go-to-market, we have some more work to do in terms of simplifying the GroupM organization. Our client expectation is that we bring them the best of the group in every engagement. But we're -- in terms of our go-to-market, we're there now. I mean we are competing effectively. We are winning pitches. We are building businesses with our clients. We have everything we need to compete, win and retain clients now. The only constant in this industry is change. So you'll see us evolve, but that's the expectation of our clients.

Joseph Thomas

Analyst

It's Joe Thomas from HSBC. Three from me as well, please. The first thing is the AI investment and the step-up. Just what's the thinking behind the need to do that? And is it OpEx or CapEx? And how is that changing? Second thing, Brian, if I could ask you sort of the same question in a slightly different way. There's been a lot of debate about what was wrong with GroupM in the past. You've talked about what you're doing right now, but perhaps you could identify what you think was wrong there? And fundamentally, how that's changing? I know you put your 5 priorities up on the screen. And then finally, a question on the interest -- the changing interest line this year. The guidance has gone up a bit. What has moved there to do that really?

Mark Read

Operator

Why don't I just start on the AI question. I think if you look at where we come from, we acquired Satalia in 2022. It was an AI research company at the time it had 100 people. It today has 300 people and it's actually selling work externally, but many people are working on our own platform. So we've used an acquisition to build an important capability. I think we're seeing it resonate to such a degree with clients that we know we need to invest more, and it's about getting the right balance between margin improvement and growth. And if I think about the financial metrics for '24, so top line disappointing, okay. No, I'm not going to argue with that. We did flag Q4 a little bit for Q3. But I think even there, the decline in project [indiscernible] will be a bit more intense than we expected in Q3. But I think if I look at the margin improvement, we delivered 40 basis points, holding the incentive and a 30 basis point investment in WPP Open. So we are becoming a more efficient and effective company. So the restructuring is bearing fruit. And we're using that to invest in WPP Open in '24. Now we don't think about the margin guidance in '25, we're saying we're going to hold it flat despite some pressure in the guidance on our top line. Now what would happen? Some of the savings from '24 will flow through on an annualized basis in '25, so that will help. We're increasing the investment in AI by sort of similar amount because we think that it will bear fruit in our new business performance. And what we don't want to do is cut the investment in the business to stop the growth. So…

Joanne Wilson

Analyst

Just on OpEx and CapEx, it's balanced, the GBP 50 million incremental is balanced pretty equally between OpEx and CapEx. And on interest, look, I think this is pretty straightforward. Our interest cost, our net interest cost in 2024 was lower than what we guided to, and we're guiding in 2025 to flat interest. We are benefiting from the very successful bond buyback, which we use that FGS proceeds to do. We're seeing an impact from the success of refinancing in 2024 bonds. So we have that full year effect of those higher blended rate as a result of that. There's a little bit lower interest income. There's a bit of a drag from FX as well.

Brian Lesser

Analyst

Joe, on your question, what was wrong in the past? I mean, there was nothing wrong in the past. GroupM is a big, vibrant growing business. I would say the one thing I've observed is perhaps GroupM was too complex and not focused enough on our clients. And we've made those changes, and we'll continue to make those changes. We're relentlessly focused on our clients. And through the 5 priorities I discussed, we'll invest in our platform. We have a market-leading platform. And I think some of our competition has been good about positioning legacy data assets as a future for strategy and we have a different take on that and we're winning business with that strategy. So we'll focus on our platform, our people. We will build the culture of innovation. Many of the innovations that have come out of the media industry originated at GroupM, and we will get back to that culture.

Mark Read

Operator

Next Richard, we should start to take -- if there are questions online, we should take those.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

I'll try to be very brief question for Brian and one for Mark. For Brian, you mentioned AI tools. We see a rising portion of spend go through big tech. They all are seeing a rising portion go through their own AI tools. You see ad tech intermediaries talking about curation and data marketplaces, what portion of the market do you see addressable for incremental spend that you can pull into GroupM or incremental margin you can pull into GroupM? And a simple question for Mark. Two of your major competitors are proposing to undertake a very messy merger. What speaks against investing margin this year to take more market share and finally deliver the growth that I think investors are mostly looking for?

Mark Read

Operator

Okay. Brian, do you want to --

Brian Lesser

Analyst

Yes. I mean in terms of our big technology partners investing in AI. That's our expectation, and that's a good thing for us. Their investments in AI don't mean that we're disintermediated from helping our clients spend across platforms. In fact, the more complex platforms get, the more valuable our services and our technology is to our clients. So in terms of where we can offer incremental margin, our 2 fastest-growing sectors are retail media and addressable television, or CTV, and we've already delivered a lot of efficiency and performance to those categories, and we'll continue to innovate in those categories, and I expect those to become a bigger part of what we do with GroupM. But it's not just limited to that. I mean one of our fastest-growing trading partners is TikTok, and you wouldn't have necessarily predicted that 5 years ago, but they're a good partner of ours. And 5 years from now, there will be a media company that we've never heard of that we'll be trading very effectively with. So I think there's nothing but upside in terms of how we help our clients engage consumers, how we predict consumer behavior at scale. And I think we have the best model to do that.

Mark Read

Operator

So look, on your question, as I talk to clients about the strengths of WPP, we have a very well-balanced business across creative, production and media. I'd point out that creatively -- to the extent that they [mat] through and they do, they do to some clients, they don't all Creative Company of the Year [indiscernible] Ogilvy was Network of the Year, our client Coke was Brand of the Year and our client Unilever, Creative Market of the Year, so creatively were strong. Our production business in Hogarth, I'd say, is the biggest in the industry, and GroupM, as Brian has said, is very strong. And even post the merger, GroupM will be by a [indiscernible] number 2, based on the pro forma figures, but number 1 still in Europe and Asia, which probably the markets where scale counts the most. So I think our business is in a strong position. And then secondly, we have through WPP Open, I think, a single platform that spans the whole company that I think is extremely powerful. And then the last point I'd make is that the restructuring is behind us. Now I've no doubt, I don't think there are specific client losses we can point at to in these mergers. But I do think people do become more internally focused than externally focused. I think that probably weighed on the business over the course of the year. We've had good -- got a good client win in VML yesterday. I think AKQA had a very strong start to the year in terms of new business, won 3 major clients in the first 2 months of the year. And look, none of that is -- I'm not trying to change our guidance, but I'm just saying that there are positive things, as…