W. Robert Berkley, Jr.
Analyst · Wells Fargo
So let me just offer a couple of more quick sound bites and then we'll move on to Q&A. First off, you would have taken a note on the rate came in reasonably healthy at the 7.2% ex comp just as another perhaps relevant data point. The renewal retention ratio continues to sit at around 80% and that thing fluctuates between 78.5% and 81.5%. It doesn't move very much. And I look at it as one barometer to really understand whether we are turning the book or not in our efforts to get rates. So that's an encouraging sign from my perspective. Just another quick sound bite on the topic of rate. And we touched on this briefly when we had our fourth quarter call, and I think you're going to see it come into more and more focus. We've taken a tremendous amount of rate over not just the past couple of quarters, the past few years. I think there are many pockets of the organization we're feeling very good with what the margin is. And the -- I guess, the need for rate is perhaps not going to be as strong going forward. So what's the punchline? We are actively rethinking what the balance is between rate versus growth. And over the coming quarters, you may see us take our foot slightly off the rate pedal and look to push harder on the growth in particular lines where we see the margin is particularly attractive and exposure growth is of more interest to us than rate. Rich talked about the top line overall growth. It was obviously some pretty separate and distinct pieces, and it does map back at least in my mind, to the topic of cycle management. You would have seen, we took a pretty firm position, which, quite frankly, given our comments in the Q4 call and earlier last year, shouldn't have surprised anyone. We all know what's been going on with the rate. We've been very transparent about our view on the casualty or liability lines. And the discipline that we'll be exercising there and kudos to our colleagues that are actually putting that discipline into practice. The other side of the coin, as Rich pointed out, we are still finding opportunities to grow within the insurance space, clearly, a bit of a mixed bag. I think the note between the gross versus net, again, highlights, hopefully, in the eyes of those that are observing that this is probably a moment, generally speaking, where it's better to be a buyer of reinsurance than a seller of reinsurance, hence the delta between the gross and the net. I do think -- just a final quick comment on the top line. In the insurance space, there is a reasonable chance that we will see a bit more growth as the year unfolds, and we are revisiting this notion of balance between growth and rate. Pivoting over quickly to the loss ratio. I think in a nutshell, it's winter storms. We had more exposure to that than some. That having been said, we think it is still a good trade. The comments on the expense ratio. I share very much Rich's view that we'll be keeping it below 30. The movement that you would have seen in the reinsurance and excess segment, was primarily a result of a reduction in premium on the reinsurance front. Switching over to the investment portfolio for a moment. And Rich flagged for you all the strength of the quality with a very strong AA- almost flirting with a AA. But a couple of other points that I would flag is that the book yield on the portfolio is about 4.7%. New money rate is 5% plus. So we still got some room there for improvement. In addition to that, the duration, as Rich pointed out, is sitting at 3.1 years. As a friendly reminder, the average life of our loss reserves, which is a big part of what we're investing is a hair inside of 4 years. So what's the punchline? The punchline is a couple of things. One, the quality is high. There's opportunity with the book yield moving up and we have flexibility around pushing that duration out which is a plus as well. So even if you discount the growth in the portfolio due to the strength of the cash flow that Rich was referencing, which is there, is real and you see it quarter after quarter. But even if you put that aside, there is meaningful upside on the -- depending on whether you look at the overall including cash, $28 billion or if you want to back out the cash $25.5 billion, there's meaningful upside from there, both because of growth of investable assets as well as the new money rate, which, again, with the duration we have, flexibility. On the topic of flexibility, and I promise last topic for me, at least for the moment, is capital. And I know it's not something that we spend a lot of time talking about on these calls, but I did want to draw folks' attention to it. And that is our financial leverage, which is sitting at about 22.6% these days, which is a -- I don't know if it's an all-time low, but it's an all-time low in my some number of decades at the organization. I think it's important to take note of that for a couple of reasons. Number one, when you look at the returns that we're generating, we're generating it with a much higher level of capital or equity for that matter, more specifically in the business. Number two, I would draw your attention to the fact that we, as an organization, do not have an expectation for 22.6% to keep going down from here. This is a very comfortable place. We think we've got lots of room if an opportunity presented itself. So what does that mean? That means if you look at this business that's earning, I don't know, between $1.750 billion and $2 billion and something a year, give or take. And you think about where our leverage ratios are, what that means is we are generating capital significantly more quickly than we can consume it and that we will have significant amounts of capital to return to shareholders for the foreseeable. And to that end, even with us doing that, we still have a tremendous amount of flexibility to take advantage of whatever unforeseen opportunities may be coming our way. So I flagged that because what you saw in the quarter with the repurchase, what you've seen us do with special dividends and recognizing the earnings power of the business and how we see the growth opportunities before us that we are going to, in all likelihood, have large amounts of capital to continue to return to shareholders and what we believe is the most effective and efficient way that is in the best interest of our shareholders. So I know we talk about repurchase every now and then. People talk about special dividends, but I just wanted to put those data points out there. And again, we can talk more about it during the Q&A if people wish to, but it seemed like that was a relevant topic of the day. So why don't we take a pause there, Alexandra, if we could please open it up for questions.