Earnings Labs

Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company (WTW)

Q4 2022 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 9, 2023

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. Welcome to the WTW Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Please refer to wtwco.com for the press release and supplemental information that was issued earlier today. Today’s call is being recorded and will be available for the next three months on WTW’s website. Some of the comments in today’s call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those discussed today in the company and the company undertakes no obligation to update these statements. One moment. Thank you. Some of the comments in today’s call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those discussed in today’s company and undertakes no obligation to update these statements unless required by law. For more details discussed of these and other risk factors investors should review the forward-looking statements section in the earnings press release issued this morning as well as other disclosures in most recent Form 10-K and in other Willis Towers Watson SEC filings. During the call, certain non-GAAP financial measures may be discussed. For reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures as well as other information regarding these measures, please refer to the most recent earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of the company’s website. I’ll now turn the call over to Carl Hess, WTW Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

Carl Hess

Management

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for WTW’s fourth quarter 2022 earnings call. Joining me today is Andrew Krasner, our Chief Financial Officer. In 2022, we focused on executing against our growth, simplify and transform strategic priorities, continuing to bring the best of WTW to our clients and generating value for our shareholders. I’m proud to say that we delivered on all of these commitments. Today, we are stronger, more resilient and better positioned than we were a year ago, and I’m excited about what we will achieve going forward. Our fourth quarter performance reflects the momentum we’ve been building and is a solid finish to a great year. In Q4, we delivered 5% organic growth, which brought our full year organic growth to 4%, in line with the mid-single digit forecast for 2022. We also saw a modest margin expansion despite significant headwinds from prior year book of business settlement activity, which is expected to normalize going forward. We generated adjusted diluted earnings per share of $6.33, up 12% over the prior year fourth quarter. We also continued to execute against our capital allocation strategy completing another $440 million in share repurchases in the fourth quarter, bringing our full year total to $3.5 billion. Our transformation efforts continue to have a significant impact. During the fourth quarter, we realized $49 million of incremental annualized savings. This brings the total to $149 million in cumulative annualized savings since the program’s inception and positions us well to achieve our 2024 target of $360 million. In advancing our simplified goals, we further refined our organizational structure by consolidating our Asia and Australasia operations into one Asia-Pacific region. This streamlined unit will be better able to leverage shared resources and to seamlessly serve clients in the region. Simon Weaver, who is…

Andrew Krasner

Management

Thanks, Carl. Good morning, everyone. Thanks to all of you for joining us today. As Carl mentioned, we finished the year on a high note and our outlook for 2023 is positive. Now I’d like to share some further details on our financial results. The fourth quarter was in line with our expectations, with revenue up 5% on an organic basis. For the year, organic revenue growth was 4%, and we had solid growth across our portfolio of businesses. For the quarter, adjusted diluted earnings per share were $6.33, an increase of 12% over the prior year. For the year, adjusted diluted earnings per share were $13.41, representing 16% growth over the prior year. Now on to our detailed segment results. Note that to provide comparability with prior periods, all commentary regarding the results of our segments will be on an organic basis, unless specifically stated otherwise. The health, wealth and career or HWC segment generated revenue growth of 5% on an organic and constant currency basis compared to the fourth quarter of last year. Excluding the year-over-year headwind from book of business settlement activity, HWC’s organic revenue grew 6%. Revenue for health was flat for the fourth quarter primarily due to a strong comparative arising from book gains in the prior year. Excluding this activity, health revenue grew 6%, primarily driven by portfolio growth and new client appointments in Europe and international as well as increased project work in North America related to helping clients manage increasing costs and implementing legislative changes. Wealth grew 5% in the fourth quarter. The growth was primarily attributable to higher levels of project work, actuarial valuation activity and new administration clients in North America and a combination of regulatory and settlement work in Great Britain. This growth was partially offset by a nominal…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Elyse Greenspan

Analyst

Hi, Thanks. Good morning. My first question. Can you guys just give us the impact of the book gains and the fiduciary investment income on both your revenue and margins for the fourth quarter as well as for the full year?

Andrew Krasner

Management

Yes, sure. Thanks, Elyse. It’s Andrew. I think, as you point out, it’s meaningful to talk about those two components that underlie the revenue growth figures for the quarter. As you know, we had headwinds from gain on sale activities, and these were partially offset by sort of investment income. The tailwind from investment income was $24 million for the quarter and $43 million for the full year. And that was partially offset by the headwinds which we had from the gain on sale activity which was $65 million for the quarter and $63 million for the full year. I think it’s also important to note that we still would have had mid-single-digit organic growth and margin expansion absent those items.

Elyse Greenspan

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. And then my second question is on free cash flow, right? Given where you guys were for 2022, I mean you’re still – you’re running short of that three-year target that you guys have laid out. And so – could you just get – is there a line of sight to getting into that free cash flow target? And can you just talk through some of the ways you’re looking to improve your free cash flow in 2023 and 2024?

Andrew Krasner

Management

Yes, sure. As we discussed on the last call, we faced more headwinds on free cash flow than we originally anticipated, including our exit from Russia and timing differences from cash payments made in 2022 on both the termination fee and the Willis regain. Non-recurring working capital items, including these tax payments and other economic factors had a meaningful impact on free cash flow in 2022. Looking ahead, we’ve not provided any annual free cash flow guidance, but we do remain committed to achieving our cumulative three-year free cash flow target of $4.3 billion to $5.3 billion. We’re focused on free cash flow generation, we understand what is required to reach that target from where we are today, and we are lining things up to get there. We expect the one-off items and the related headwinds to abate we’re optimizing the cash generation profile of our business portfolio, and we’re focusing on tactical working capital improvements as well.

Elyse Greenspan

Analyst

And then just one more quick one. So you did revise your 2024 EPS target last quarter. But then this quarter, right, you gave us the pension income guide, which is lower pension income for 2023. Is that embedded within the guide, the $17.50 to $20.50, right? That pension income will be lower, you would have a lower base in 2023 and still be able to get to that 24% EPS target?

Carl Hess

Management

So Elyse, we’ve not adjusted our 2024 pension income assumption for the current headwind we’ve got in 2023. As we’ve seen during the last 12 months, a lot can happen when it comes to external factors, so a lot can change over the next two years as well. We do remain focused on driving organic growth, operating leverage and cost savings to achieve our long-term EPS target.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Gregory Peters with Raymond James. Your line is open.

Gregory Peters

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Good morning everyone. For my first question, I’m going to focus in on both the adjusted operating margin. If I look at the full year and your results, it’s up 100 basis points from prior year. And in your prepared remarks, you talked about all the new hires that you successfully executed on last year. Can you talk about how those hires affected the margin results, the margin expansion results in 2022? And I guess when I’m thinking about 2023 and 2024 as those employees get the new hires get more – get onboarded and they become more productive in year two and year three, maybe there’s some tailwind on margin from that. So some perspective there would be helpful.

Carl Hess

Management

Yes, Greg. So with regard to talent, I mean, we’re really pleased with the progress we’ve made on our higher efforts during the year. Net hiring for the year is positive. Our headcount is up by almost 2,500 to 46,600 employees, which is kind of back to 2019 levels, and that’s despite the divestitures we’ve made since then. We do expect the contribution to the improvement in our talent base fee become more meaningful into 2023, and we’ve already seen positive trends as we progress through 2022. I think that’s reflected in the revenue growth numbers from quarter-to-quarter. We’re continuing to hire opportunistically in the number of open positions and base position, of course, are going to vary at any given time based on our needs. But we’re really encouraged by the progress we’ve made, and we’re going to continue to focus on expanding our talent base as necessary to achieve our growth targets. You’ll probably see some further detail on our higher efforts in goals in our 10-K, which will be filed later in the month.

Gregory Peters

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

And just a point of clarification on that. I sort of viewed 2022 as like a hiring super cycle for you guys – is it – when I think about 2023, is it more – are we back to more normalized run rate type of additions? Or are you still – would you still think of 2023 is still looking out to make a substantial addition to your workforce?

Carl Hess

Management

Well, we are continuing to hire opportunistically, as I said, Greg. And yes, there’s always going to be some areas in a firm that is the span of services we do where you look and say, okay, we need to kind of advance what we’re doing more substantially than others. But I think we’re opportunistically is key, right? Whereas coming into 2022. As we talked about in earlier calls, we had more pronounced needs across the organization.

Gregory Peters

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Yes, that makes sense. Okay. My second question, I guess, is my third technically, but my last question will be on organic revenue guidance. You provided the mid-single-digit guidance and I know you don’t want to get mired down in the detail, but I’m wondering if you could give us some idea of how you think the pieces inside Health, Wealth and Career and Risk and Broking might perform in 2023 in the context of the 2023 guidance. And I guess the reason why I’m asking about this, as I look at the ICT results that were really strong, and I’m just wondering if that’s something like that can sustain itself? Thank you.

Andrew Krasner

Management

Yes. Thanks for that. We remain confident in our ability to get to the mid-single-digit growth in 2023 and beyond. That’s demonstrated by the organic revenue growth that we achieved this year, reflecting all of the momentum in our businesses. The continued growth from clients seeking our solutions coupled with our robust pipeline and investments that we’re making in our talent strengthens our conviction in our ability to achieve that mid-single-digit organic revenue growth in the future. Our focus remains on enterprise level, long-time organic – long-term organic revenue growth target in the mid-single digits and specifically regarding thoughts around the growth profiles of each of our businesses. Probably best to refer you back to our Investor Day materials from September of 21, where we did set some of that out business by business of what we expect long-term for each one of those components.

Gregory Peters

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open.

Got it. Thanks for the answers.

Andrew Krasner

Management

Thanks, Greg.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore. Your line is open.

David Motemaden

Analyst · Evercore. Your line is open.

Hi, thanks. Good morning. I was just wondering if you could size the benefit that the favorable ICT timing had an organic revenue growth in R&B in the quarter? And maybe just talk about how much of a headwind that would be in the first quarter of 2023?

Andrew Krasner

Management

Yes, it’s Andrew. I assume you’re referring to the comment about the timing of the ICT software sales? Is that right, David?

David Motemaden

Analyst · Evercore. Your line is open.

Yes. That’s right.

Andrew Krasner

Management

So that was stuff that actually we had expected earlier in the year that ended up occurring in the fourth quarter just to when sales cycles close, et cetera. So I think it’s best to look at that business on a full year basis, and that’s in line with our expectations of how that business has performed over the longer term.

David Motemaden

Analyst · Evercore. Your line is open.

Okay. Got it. That’s helpful. And then just looking at the R&B organic growth, I think it was 6% excluding the book of business drag and I’m calculating around a 2-point also a 2-point benefit from fiduciary income. So I’m getting to around 4% organic if I take out book of business impacts and fiduciary impacts, which is about the same as it was last quarter. So I guess I’m wondering why we didn’t see that – or I guess, first, is that right? And if so, why we really didn’t see that growth accelerate versus the third quarter?

Andrew Krasner

Management

Yes. So I think the first point of clarification there is around the Risk and Broking growth rates. So 5% organic – 6% organic, excluding the gain on sale and 6% excluding gain on sale and investment income. So it would have been 6% with or without the tailwind from investment income within that line of business.

David Motemaden

Analyst · Evercore. Your line is open.

Okay. Great. Thanks. I missed that. Thanks for that.

Andrew Krasner

Management

No problem.

David Motemaden

Analyst · Evercore. Your line is open.

And I guess maybe just one more I’ll sneak one in. Could you just size the adverse impact that the divested reinsurance business in Russia had on free cash flow this year? Because it does feel like a pretty big ramp to get to the low end of the free cash flow target over the next couple of years. So maybe just help us get a sense for what a more normalized free cash flow number would look like if we didn’t have those items would be helpful?

Andrew Krasner

Management

Yes. We did talk a bit about this on the call, the last quarter. So I think we disclosed that the Russia business had about 1% of our total revenue base and a margin of more than double the enterprise margin. So there is some pretty healthy EBITDA cash flow associated with that. Additionally, we did write off a large amount of receivables that were associated with that business, which we were unable to collect. So there’s a fairly sizable headwind, which presented itself from the divestiture and write-off of that business.

Carl Hess

Management

Yes, just for clarity, that was our insurance broking business, not reinsurance broking which we – any of that would have already been divested with the Willis Re divestiture.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Michael Zaremski with BMO. Your line is open.

Michael Zaremski

Analyst · BMO. Your line is open.

Hey, good morning. I promise to just hold it to one question and a follow-up. First question, I just wanted to – I heard the answer to Elyse’s question about the pension income being factored into your long-term guide and it can be volatile. But I just want to be clear, it’s a meaningful headwind in 2023. And so are there other levers that you’re pulling more so than you had kind of previously expected in 2023 to be able to show margin improvement?

Carl Hess

Management

So just to clarify on the size of the headwind, as you’ll see in our 10-K, pension income for 2022 was $272 million and we’re guiding for $412 million in 2023. So that, I think, shows you the product quantitative basis what we’re facing. We do look at all levers available to us as we run this company. And to the extent we’ve got a headwind in the other direction, we search for what we can do elsewhere. That feels like how you manage the company every day. And just as we’ve seen during 2022, we can get all sorts of headwinds and directions, expected or not. We think the benefit of running the diversified portfolio we have, gives us the opportunity to adapt.

Michael Zaremski

Analyst · BMO. Your line is open.

Okay. And my follow-up, just curious, some of your peers have publicly talked about looking for ways to bring employees more back to the office and to better collaborate. I believe Willis has always kind of been collaborative and a more virtual environment. And you’ve been clear that a lot of the cost – some of the cost saves will come from less real estate. But any changes in kind of in your view on the meaningfully lower real estate footprint and kind of just the overall firm’s view of remote work? Thanks.

Carl Hess

Management

So we absolutely have adapted really well to remote work, but we recognize the benefit of in-office collaboration as well. None of that is incompatible with a reduced real estate footprint and we are, I think, extremely successfully navigating back to work, back to collaboration and the flexibility that the workplace of tomorrow really wants from their employment. So I’m really happy with how our colleagues have adapted and kept up to great work as they do, both in office and remote. I’ve seen no lag in how we’re able to perform for our clients, and I think that’s demonstrated by our results.

Michael Zaremski

Analyst · BMO. Your line is open.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Paul Newsome with Piper Sandler. Your line is open.

Paul Newsome

Analyst · Piper Sandler. Your line is open.

Good morning. Thanks for the call. I wanted to revisit the gain of the book sales impact. And if you could just give us a little bit more, maybe just walk us through, again, what the comparisons will likely be prospectively if we continue to have negative comparisons. And one thing I’m not sure if I have it in my mind and maybe some others are not quite getting is I think there’s two impacts. One is the actual comparison of having a gain a year ago versus not having today. But is that there also an impact of not having that book any more prospectively over the next year versus a year ago. And so how should we think about sort of those two pieces? And how long we will be talking about book gain comparisons.

Andrew Krasner

Management

Yes. So you’re absolutely right. There is a second component, right, of the revenue that does bleed off, and that is sort of excluded from what we’ve been talking about in terms of the gain on sale headwinds that we’ve experienced in some of our businesses. We do expect that level of book sales to normalize going forward. And if you look back pre-2020, you can start to get a sense of what that normalized level looks like, and we do expect to be getting there in relatively short order as the events from 2021 get further and further away.

Paul Newsome

Analyst · Piper Sandler. Your line is open.

So does that mean that we’re essentially normalized into 2023 or we still going to be talking about this in the next couple of quarters?

Carl Hess

Management

I think we put a book gains began to normalize as we progress through 2022, and we expect them to be in line with historical levels in 2023 as 2021 receives.

Andrew Krasner

Management

So there may be some quarterly headwinds as that normalization continues throughout 2023. And we’ll – as we have been provide detail on what that looks like.

Paul Newsome

Analyst · Piper Sandler. Your line is open.

Thanks. That was it. I’ll see my second question to Elyse.

Carl Hess

Management

Thanks, Paul.

Andrew Krasner

Management

Thanks, Paul.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Kligerman with Credit Suisse. Your line is open. Andrew just to see if you’re on mute.

Andrew Kligerman

Analyst

Sorry about that. Good morning. I have been reading a lot about these net hires, particularly in the summer, you mentioned that construction and aerospace was quite strong. Could you give a sense of the kind of impact on volumes, sales, commissions that these hires might have in 2023 and 2024 as non-competes roll off? Because it looks like you had a very good result this quarter, but the real impact of these hires is something we should be thinking more about as 2023, 2024 numbers. Am I thinking about that right?

Andrew Krasner

Management

Yes. I think that is right, Andrew. I mean we bring people on. We don’t expect them to be fully productive from day one. It’s typically about 12, 18 months before they’re fully productive. And so someone we brought on during the summer kind of – we expect to be hitting their stride in Q3, Q4, the following year in full, right? Do take those – because of the timing of renewals, right, they – and bunching around the end of the year, right? So that’s where you might get some variation in that – how many months as opposed to the efficacy of the particular individual, right? But you’re absolutely right that someone we brought on who’s a great front office talent in 2022, we’ll be hitting their stride in 2023 and beyond.

Andrew Kligerman

Analyst

So it just sort of seems like the focus on the call of these book of business gains, it seems like we’re getting closer to normalized. It’s just not something to focus on. This is where the focus should be. So my next question is on the Medicare Advantage sales. It was kind of interesting to read about some of the smaller public players that are very focused on it. They all seem to be seeing improvements in volumes and margins. And a lot of folks just kind of write this business off is a very low-margin business. But could you talk a little bit about the margins of Med Advantage as compared to the overall HWC segment? And could you talk a little bit about the prospects that you were seeing in the quarter and opportunity for continued growth.

Andrew Krasner

Management

Yes. Sure. It’s Andrew. So we’re not going to get into the specific margins of specific products, but we are pleased with the level of profitability that we are seeing in that product and that business overall as it is a portfolio of different products, of course, primarily MA, but there is a nice balanced portfolio there as well.

Carl Hess

Management

Yes. And I guess as far as the prospects, I mean, first of all, we have continuously run this business for sustainable growth, and that means looking for growth opportunities that are profitable rather than growth for growth’s sake. That philosophy has served us, I think, very well and it’s one we will be continuing. But the overall backdrop for that business remains very strong and our relationship with a variety of partners does position us well. From a macro perspective, I’ve cited this before, but when you have 10,000 people becoming newly eligible for Medicare every day, it is quite a tailwind for the industry. Medicare enrollment is projected to grow 7.6% per year over the decade. And the percentage of Medicare eligible people who buy an MA plan rather than just use traditional Medicare is rising, it’s expected to grow from just over 40% to more than 50% by 2030. So those are all, I think good conditions for our business.

Andrew Kligerman

Analyst

Excellent. Thanks a lot.

Carl Hess

Management

Thank you.

Andrew Krasner

Management

Thank you, Andrew.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Rob Cox with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Rob Cox

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Hey, thanks. Just on the wealth segment, you talked about a number of tailwinds and noted that some of these projects could last years. So I’m curious if you could talk about how long you expect to benefit from sort of the stronger PRT levels and then really the regulatory-driven work?

Carl Hess

Management

Yes. So whenever we have a change in regulation, there’s typically a multi-quarter bump as clients trying to analyze and determine actions to take with respect to the change in the environment. The improved funded status of pension plans that we’ve seen during 2022 gives them additional flexibility to consider risk transfer options. And while as I noted, there’s always chance for the economic climate and the funded status for those plans to change over time. That’s typically something we see a multi-quarter benefit from as well, right? And again, even if the fund as does change to economic conditions, that creates fresh volatility that clients need help – analyzing. So we think our strong position in all elements of servicing pension funds in the industry, we see some resilience to the results going forward.

Rob Cox

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Got it. Thank you. And maybe just switching over to the transformation program. Any chance you could give us an update on kind of more finally, where these transformation savings are benefiting the margin between corporate and the two segments so far in the program?

Andrew Krasner

Management

Yes. We’ve seen in your benefit from our strong transformation performance across the portfolio of businesses and in the corporate segment, what you’re seeing play out primarily in the corporate segment is the fact that would be a reinvestment need and then talent, things of that nature is not as pronounced as it was, for example, in Risk and Broking. Hence, the transformation savings there more than offset by the investment hiring and to a lesser extent, in HWC where there was margin expansion and the transformation savings were a driver of that. But again, there was some level of reinvestment there, just not to the same extent that you would have seen in Risk and Broking.

Rob Cox

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Thanks. Appreciate the answers.

Carl Hess

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Joshua Shanker with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Joshua Shanker

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Yes. Thank you for taking my question. I don’t know what I’m going to find out asking this question, but learn something. When you look at the organic growth you’re experiencing right now, can you talk a little bit about customer growth versus inflation versus product sales. And the mix of growth, what is actually growing when we try and break out the successes of the year?

Carl Hess

Management

So there’s – there are all of the above, right, does play into how we grow, right? We’ve talked on prior calls about how various parts of how we price are in place in sensitive, whether it’s rates in our consulting business or asset values that underlie insurance and thus, the commissions we receive. We have also talked about how the fact that we’re back in the marketplace, right? During the period where we were involved with Aon, we stopped receiving RFPs, and that came back to us beginning with the fourth quarter of 2022, we’ve enjoyed the success winning new clients. And over the course of emerging from that experience, our retention rates of existing clients have also improved. And that’s a credit to the hard work of all our colleagues, making sure that our well-earned reputations are superior client services maintained.

Joshua Shanker

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

When you’re talking about client wins here, to what extent are they new clients to work in? Are they clients who might have been lost during the Willis and uncertainty period that you won back? And can you sort of give examples on what areas of the market you’re seeing that market share gain within the space?

Carl Hess

Management

Yes. So I mean, it’s a mix of all of the above I think. We have a lot of clients, and so you’re going to have a lot of examples on the direction. If you look at various parts of our business, some of it just much more naturally sticky than others, right? We’ve got a client of BDO, who’s in an outsourced benefits relationship with us, typically with a three, five, seven-year contract. That business was extremely resilient during all of this and has looked resilient going forward, but we continue to add new clients in the mix as well. Our CRB business is where we saw the most volatility in the client mix, and that’s one where I think our colleagues did a great job retaining clients, but it was under pressure. Now that we have a clear course and destiny. We’ve seen client retention and client attraction both up as well as new expansion of existing client relationships. So there’s a lot in the hood. We have a lot of variation in the businesses, but the direction, I think is encouraging across the…

Joshua Shanker

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Thank you for the sensible answers.

Carl Hess

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS. Your line is open.

Brian Meredith

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open.

Yes. Thank you. Andrew, just a quick question here on fiduciary income. You probably some nice disclosure in your Q last quarter on the tailwind from every 25 basis points. If I take a look at that, it would look like it’s probably a 50, call it, basis point tailwind to organic growth in 2023, just given where short-term rates are and maybe a little more meaningful for margins. Do I have that right?

Andrew Krasner

Management

I think directionally, you’re getting there. Remember, it does take time for investments to turn over. So the portfolio has to work through in that as well. But I think directionally, that’s consistent with how we’re thinking about things.

Brian Meredith

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open.

Great. That’s helpful. And then my second question – go ahead, sorry.

Andrew Krasner

Management

Yes. No, I was just going to say the other thing, don’t forget, we’ll have some gain on sale headwinds that continue through next year, right, that will temper that from a margin perspective.

Brian Meredith

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open.

Right, right, right. I got that. I got that. The second question would be a number of your, call it, peer companies or competitor companies highlighted the headwind from transactional business this quarter and maybe in the first quarter. Do you have a big transactional business? Was that a headwind at all this quarter to organic revenue growth and potentially first quarter?

Carl Hess

Management

So we do have a transactional business of a successful one. I’m glad to say. And we faced the same headwinds as others. We’re – we didn’t think about that as we’ve talked about our expectations.

Brian Meredith

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open.

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Mark Hughes with Truist. Your line is open.

Mark Hughes

Analyst · Truist. Your line is open.

Yes. Thank you. Good morning. Just a small question, in the transact business, anything that you saw around expected lifetime value seems like the enrollment season, people were more productive about new business. Did that have an impact on the persistency of the – of your customers there?

Carl Hess

Management

Yes. We have taken actions, Mark, and good morning, to try and do our part to help with persistency, including working with carriers on sort of their customer treatment to make sure that customer satisfaction is as high as possible. And we’re happy that those actions seem to be fruitful, and we’ll look to maintain that sort of thing going forward, including post-placement customer support on our end. We continue to examine our lifetime values, which, of course, are subject to outside actuarial estimate. And I think that we remain happy with how we’re going. I mean persistency has improved. And so no signs that we have anything but to continue our actions and continue to improve, how we go about that business to keep the numbers going forward.

Mark Hughes

Analyst · Truist. Your line is open.

And you say persistency has improved?

Carl Hess

Management

I did.

Mark Hughes

Analyst · Truist. Your line is open.

Yes. Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Derek Han with KBW. Your line is open.

Derek Han

Analyst · KBW. Your line is open.

Good morning. Thanks. How do you think about buybacks to current valuations and just the way you think about buying back stock versus reinvestments for this year?

Andrew Krasner

Management

Yes. Sure. As we’ve got a fairly disciplined approach to capital management that does begin with looking at share repurchases as the primary use of cash. And given current valuations, we do continue to think that is a very attractive return although we do need to look at our portfolio of potential investments through a strategic lens and you need to continue to reinvest in the business organically or inorganically as appropriate to ensure that we’re investing for growth in the future.

Derek Han

Analyst · KBW. Your line is open.

Got it. That’s helpful. And then my second question is more on a high level. At your last Investor Day, you talked about kind of moving upstream to larger accounts. Can you just give us an update on how that’s progressing? And how that’s contemplated in your mid-single digit organic growth guidance for this year?

Carl Hess

Management

We’re happy with how we continue to be a large account reference there was principally across the R&D portfolio, right? Our existing HWC business skews large accounts to begin with. With respect to how we’re progressing in large market, I think I’d just point to the fact that we’re growing and large market is very much a part of that. Some of the talent we brought on focus is there. But we think we play well across all market segments, and that’s a strength we have for us.

Derek Han

Analyst · KBW. Your line is open.

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Mark Marcon with Baird. Your line is open.

Mark Marcon

Analyst · Baird. Your line is open.

Good morning, and thanks for taking my question. I’ve got two. One, when we take a look at Health, Wealth and Careers, most of the business is cyclically insensitive and across the Board. But you do have some cyclically sensitive elements within that business. I’m wondering what you’re seeing just in terms of client behavior buyer intentions in that area? And then I have a follow-up with regards to cost synergies.

Carl Hess

Management

Yes. So typically, our career business is the one that’s seen the most volatility to it through the economic cycle. We not see all that much of it this time as employers are trying to adjust to the “new normal of work”. And you even see that despite threat of recession in the job numbers that we posted here in the U.S. We’ve also taken measures over the years to make that business some of us economically sensitive, switching to software and technology as part of the offering and to focus on some of the parts of the business that are also less economically sensitive like executive compensation as part of the mix. So not declaring victory, but I think we’ve made strides in removing some of the sensitivity there. The higher demand has been holding up well we think.

Mark Marcon

Analyst · Baird. Your line is open.

That’s terrific. And then with regards to the incremental cost synergies that you ended up achieving. Did that come primarily from real estate or personnel or a combination thereof? And what’s going to drive the $100 million of additional cost reductions next year and any change to the 2024 run rate savings targets.

Andrew Krasner

Management

So no change to the 2024 targets. The amount that sort of got pulled forward in Q4 is really just a matter of certain components moving faster than we’ve anticipated. And that’s come across the portfolio of actions that we’ve taken, whether it was real estate or technology and optimization or right shoring, things of that nature. So we’re pretty pleased that it did come from all components of the program.

Mark Marcon

Analyst · Baird. Your line is open.

And that’s the expectation for the $100 million as well in terms of this coming year?

Andrew Krasner

Management

Correct. We do expect all components to be contributors going forward.

Mark Marcon

Analyst · Baird. Your line is open.

Great. Thank you.

Carl Hess

Management

Thank you.

Andrew Krasner

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. I’m showing no further questions in the queue. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.