Earnings Labs

Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company (WTW)

Q4 2023 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 6, 2024

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. Welcome to the WTW Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Please refer to the wtwco.com for the press release and supplemental information that were issued earlier today. Today's call is being recorded and will be available for the next three months on WTW's website. Some of the comments in today's call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those discussed today, and the company undertakes no obligation to update these statements unless required by law. For a more detailed discussion of these and other risk factors, investors should review the forward-looking statements section of the earnings press release issued this morning, as well as, other disclosures in the most recent Form 10-K and in other Willis Towers Watson SEC filings. During the call, certain non-GAAP financial measures may be discussed. For reconciliation of the non-GAAP measures as well as other information regarding these measures, please refer to the most recent earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of the company's website. I'll now turn the call over to Carl Hess, WTW's Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

Carl Hess

Management

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for WTW’s fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings call. Joining me today is Andrew Krasner, our Chief Financial Officer. WTW ended 2023 on a strong note and has begun 2024 with solid momentum, as we continue to execute on our grow, simplify and transform strategic priorities. In the fourth quarter, our world class solutions and maturing investments in talent helped generate robust organic revenue growth and our transformation program and expense discipline drove adjusted operating margin expansion and solid adjusted diluting earnings per share growth. Our performance steadily improved throughout 2023 and today WTW is stronger, more resilient and better positioned to achieve our goals. We delivered 6% organic revenue growth in the fourth quarter with an adjusted operating margin of 34.2%, up 180 basis points over the prior year. Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $7.44, an 18% increase year-over-year. For the full year, we had organic revenue growth of 8% above our mid-single digit target. We also drove 110 basis points of year-over-year margin expansion to achieve an adjusted operating margin of 22%, fulfilling our commitment of annual margin expansion. Our adjusted diluting earnings per share were $14.49, an 8% increase over the prior year. We believe these results are the product of our strong global client model, our strategic investments in talent and technology, and our team's hard work and relentless focus on best-in-class delivery. The progress we see within WTW and the enthusiastic response we're receiving from clients give us confidence that our strategies, our people and our investments are aligned with areas that we believe to be the greatest opportunities to drive sustainable, profitable growth and create shareholder value over the long-term. Let me take a few minutes to share the progress we've made and the…

Andrew Krasner

Management

Thanks Carl. Good morning and thanks for joining us today. As Carl mentioned, we finished the year with strong momentum putting us in a solid position to achieve our 2024 targets. And I'd like to share some further details on our financial results. We delivered organic revenue growth of 6% in the fourth quarter, bringing the full year growth rate to 8%. The ramp up in productivity of our investment hires, our specialization strategy in Risk & Broking and the ongoing demand for our benefits and human capital services in HWC continue to fuel the strong top-line growth. Alongside this robust growth, we also drove margin expansion for both the quarter and full year at the enterprise level and in each of our segments. The result was adjusted diluted earnings per share of $7.44 for the quarter and $14.49 for the year. Next, I'll spend some time reviewing our segment results. Note that to provide comparability with prior periods, all commentary regarding the results of our segments will be on an organic basis unless specifically stated otherwise. Health, Wealth and Career generated revenue growth of 4% compared to the fourth quarter of last year and finished the year with 6% growth. Going into 2024, we feel confident in the outlook and expect another year of similarly positive results for the segment. Revenue for Health increased 6% for the quarter or 5% when excluding the impact of some modest book-of-business activity. We delivered solid growth across all regions driven by increased brokerage income and the continued expansion of our Global Benefits Management client portfolio in Europe and international. Wealth grew 5% in the fourth quarter. Retirement growth was driven by increased project work related to derisking activity in North America as well as additional project work and pension brokerage in Europe.…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Gregory Peters with Raymond James. Your line is open.

Gregory Peters

Analyst

Good morning, everyone and I'm going to say that it does feel like you finally stabilized the platform last year, so it does -- it should bode well for your future. On the mid-single digit guidance outlook for 2024, inside Risk & Broking, can you give us a sense of how you think the benefit on new business and/or versus rate increases is going to run through the Risk & Broking line? And then on the Health, Wealth and Career, the BD&O line was a little weak in the fourth -- lower in the fourth quarter, can you talk about your outlook there?

Carl Hess

Management

Greg, good morning, and thank you that. So starting with R&B, let me begin with the effect of rate and -- which we frankly don't view as a significant headwind or tailwind across the portfolio in terms of how it's mattered for 2023 and going into 2024. The markets remain a bit mixed in terms of what's going on. The effective -- however, the investment we've made over the last few years in talent and the reorientation of the business towards specialization is what we feel has really made a difference for us and will continue to differentiate us going into 2024. I mean, our approach to specialization sets us apart from others in the industry. We've constructed this around specialized businesses not just practices, focused around industry divisions, right? And these are businesses with national or even global P&L's dedicated personnel directly responsible accountable and that just ties to our specialization approach which is resulted in our global lines growing much faster than our overall book as we talked about earlier. With respect to HWC, looking forward, we're very confident in our pipeline and we do anticipate HWC is going to have mid-single digit revenue growth in 2024. The current human capital landscape is highly complex as a result of rising healthcare costs, a changing interest rate environment that affects pension derisking activity and we see these trends as tailwinds for 2024. And as we mentioned in our opening remarks, we expect our growing momentum with our smart connection strategy to continue in 2024 and these increased cross-selling opportunities will be another HWC revenue tailwind.

Gregory Peters

Analyst

Okay. That makes sense. I wanted to pivot to the free cash flow margin expectations, slide 22 of your investor deck. And what I'm focused on is that 16%-plus long-term objective and I -- looking for some more color inside some of those comments that you made in the slide about where you're going to get some positive benefits and some negative benefits and when you think about getting to that 16%, is that like a five-year target a 10-year target or what kind of parameters are you putting on management around that objective?

Andrew Krasner

Management

Yeah. Hey, Greg. It's Andrew. Thanks for the question. The 12.6% margin in 2023, it was good progress on a year-over-year basis. We do expect incremental improvement in 2024 as we work towards the long-term free cash flow margin target. We expect to see that margin improvement in 2024 and beyond really through three main factors. So, the first one's going to be greater profitability as a result of driving margin expansion. We'll be intent to do this not just through transformation in operating leverage, but also by improving our business mix. For example, deepening our footprint in the area of MGA's, MGU's things of that nature. The second piece is the abatement of the transformation related spend, which we're expecting through the first half of 2025. The third piece is improved cash conversion in the transact business, which we expect to be positive within the next few years, that's going to come as a result of the maturation of the business as well as the improving, changing the product mix within that business. Over the near term, progress on some of those factors is going to be temporarily offset by cash investments in HWC and R&B for product development to support future growth, things like our LifeSight business where we continue to invest, a new ICT software and I also mentioned the MGA and MGU business as an example of that.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Elyse Greenspan

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Hi, thanks. My first question is on the EPS guidance. You guys reaffirmed the guidance that you gave us in July, but it sounds like you expect to come in at the high-end of the operating margin target. And pension I believe is a little bit favorable relative to the midpoint of the guide -- guidance update last summer. So why not up or tighten the range towards the upside. Do you feel like comment could come in towards the upside of the range and maybe there's just some level of conservatism to start the year?

Andrew Krasner

Management

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Elyse. So, we remain confident in the EPS target range of $15.40 to $17 for 2024 that we had set out. As we laid out in our supplemental materials, you can see the puts and takes there, a meaningful portion coming from operating income along with the increase in the share repurchase activity that we mentioned about $750 million expected there. The offset there as you mentioned, some of the reduced pension income that's going to be about a $0.14 share headwinds as well as the increase in interest expense and adjusted tax rate. And when we thought through all of those puts and takes, we felt still very confident about landing within the range there.

Elyse Greenspan

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Thanks. So then my second question is on the share repurchase guidance. So Andrew, I think you said $750 million in 2024. That's a lower than what you guys bought back in 2023 yet your free cash flow conversion should improve, right, from the 2023 level. And then I guess even though it's not a 2024 event, right, in the first half of 2025, right, you guys I believe should receive $750 million from the Willis Re earnout. So why would it buybacks be more than $750 million in 2024 or is M&A part of the equation? I'm just trying to square the free cash flow improvement and the lower level of buyback in 2024.

Andrew Krasner

Management

Sure. The $750 million, right, is our expectation for the year. That level is lower than at 2023 where we did $1 billion. You have to keep in mind that throughout 2023, we took on some incremental leverage in May and throughout the year capitalized on the opportunity to buy more shares when there was pressure on the stock price. So the $750 million is not necessarily static. We continuously monitor cash levels, market conditions and if the opportunity presents itself to accelerate, share repurchases will take advantage of it just like we did last year. We continue, as you might expect to, evaluate all of our options for capital allocation as we always have, which does include share buybacks, internal investment and carefully considered strategic M&A as part of that to ensure that we're maximizing value creation for our shareholders.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Robert Cox with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Robert Cox

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Hey, thanks for taking my question. Maybe a similar question to when you've already received on free cash flow in some ways. But if I exclude the $430 million or so cash restructuring charges this year, I get to a free cash flow margin over 17% in 2023, is that correct? And when you think ahead to a future where restructuring spend is zero and the transact free cash flow drag has improved, couldn't there be meaningful upside to the 16% long-term free cash flow margin target. Am I am I thinking about that correctly, or are there any headwinds I'm not considering?

Andrew Krasner

Management

I think generally, over a long-term, I think you're thinking about the math correctly there Rob, and focus you on the plus symbol [ph] after the 16% that we've got in our materials, in our long-term objective there. It does take time for some of those headwinds to evade. Think about transact for example, if that -- when that turns free cash flow positive, it's still a drag on free cash flow margin, right? Because it's not necessarily converting at the same rate at the rest of the business and of course, the revenue there can -- continue to grow as well. So, there's other dynamics that factor into the -- to the margin calculation.

Robert Cox

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Okay. Thanks. And just to follow-up on expenses in the Risk & Broking business. Could you talk about the incremental expense savings in the quarter versus last quarter, some of the things that you started to enact last quarter? And then, just some more color on how sustainable those savings are outside of the transformation program?

Andrew Krasner

Management

Yeah. There's -- we talked about I think ongoing expense discipline across the platform that's not just specific to R&D, but we balance the focus on expenses with the revenue growth to make sure that we're looking to generate operating leverage top of the transformation savings across the platform. And obviously, we've been heavily investing in that business, which is weight on that for certain parts during the year. Carl, anything you'd add to that?

Carl Hess

Management

Yeah. I guess, as we've highlighted in prior quarters we have substantial investment in that business principally in talent. And now that our talent base is back to full strength, right, we're concentrating on strategic opportunistic hires to capitalize on the opportunities we see ahead and the geography that we -- offer the greatest potential for profitable growth, right? So I think it's just a momentum story at this point as opposed to a rebuild story which leads to a smoother pattern of expense growth.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Zaremski with BMO. Your line is open.

Michael Zaremski

Analyst · BMO. Your line is open.

Great. Good morning. Now back just to the free cash flow and thanks for all the color. I believe you said one of the offsets was cash investments in product development. So, I guess, should we be looking at your historical CapEx ratio divided by revenues and I guess are you alluding to maybe it'd be -- it'll maybe kind of rise to a bit of a higher level than it is currently, is one of the offsets that I want to or am I splitting hairs in terms of some of your commentary?

Andrew Krasner

Management

Yeah. No, it's a good question. Just on the -- I'd say on the margin, right, we would expect it to increase a little bit. You just recall, right, it's been somewhat depressed from a spend ratio perspective over the last couple of years. Obviously, there's been a meaningful uptake as it relates to transformation spend and CapEx, but BAU CapEx, as we continue to build out the platform and invest for the future, would be a modest temporary offset to some of the tailwinds that I mentioned earlier.

Michael Zaremski

Analyst · BMO. Your line is open.

Okay. That makes sense. And really good color on the HWC segment. Specifically, it was interesting to hear, retirement, I know Willis has a leading to find benefit retirement solutions segment which I think historically you guys have talked about that being kind of -- not as high of a growth rate or maybe not a lot -- much of a long-term grower, but it sounded like you said in the near term because of the environment, it is a growing business, which is kind of a tailwind to 2024. I just want to make sure I'm understanding those comments correctly.

Andrew Krasner

Management

Yeah. I think you've got that right. We see several factors as working for us going forward and we do have the market leading retirement business, right? Given the economic environment we find ourselves in and the funded status our pension clients enjoy, right, there still remains a substantial appetite for derisking strategies and with funded positions are better, right, that there's the capability to do that is increased. And we're well-equipped to help our clients that journey. In addition, the investments we've made in growing areas of the pension landscape such as the LifeSight business Andrew talked about just earlier, have enabled our growth in a number of economies where these strategies, Master Trust are an attractive place. Our corporate clients to gain efficiency of the provision of retirement.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Mark Hughes with Truist Securities. Your line is open.

Mark Hughes

Analyst · Truist Securities. Your line is open.

Yeah. Thanks. Good morning. I wonder if you could just talk a little bit about the transact what your experience was this quarter the BDO business. Organic growth was below average for the business as a whole. Did you see any kind of change in that market? And does it influence your long-term outlook for the business?

Carl Hess

Management

Well, I guess the way we look at it is, we rerun transact for growth opportunities if they're profitable growth opportunities. And if the spend -- we're seeing that's necessary to generate a policy commission is economically sensible. We just don't do it. So, we manage that business I think balancing growth and profits and we this year found ourselves in a place where we made I think very sensible choice given the conditions we're facing.

Andrew Krasner

Management

And just to add one thing to that if you recall, we had some revenue time into Q3 from that business which I think we had mentioned on the last call, so that did factor into the quarterly growth rate within that component of HWC. So I think the best way to think about is if you look at the full year growth rate really representative of where we expect the business to head in the future.

Mark Hughes

Analyst · Truist Securities. Your line is open.

Understood. Then, the strategic client engagement, what was the motivation for that and are there any particular verticals that you think are most promising?

Carl Hess

Management

Yeah. I think you're referring to the large complex account team is that, right?

Mark Hughes

Analyst · Truist Securities. Your line is open.

Yes, that's right.

Carl Hess

Management

Yeah. I mean we think the combination of our global footprint, our specialization approach and our industry leading analytics offer a compelling proposition to clients facing, the challenges that this macroeconomic environment can lead them to, right? So, the extent we can help our clients manage things like natural disaster, social inflation, geopolitical conflicts, right, our customized tools our specialist approach can help ensure that clients get the best return for their premium dollar across their entire portfolio for instance. That's what that's all about.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

David Motemaden

Analyst · Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Hi, thanks. Good morning. I had a question, you guys had called out. I think it was about a 200 basis points adverse impact to free cash flow margins from transact in 2022. Could you just level set us on? How much of a drag that was in 2023? And then, it sounds like you guys are expecting it to be a free cash flow positive in the near term, which is a little sooner than I'd expected. So, if you could just talk about what's driving that it would be helpful.

Andrew Krasner

Management

Yeah. Sure. We had about 60 basis point year-over-year improvement in the free cash flow margin drag from that business. So, quite pleased with the progress that we've made there at that business matures and as we think through the portfolio of products within transact. The drivers of getting to free cash flow positive within that business, the next few years is know more focus on the product portfolio, different products have different cash conversion profiles so we seek to balance that appropriately. As Carl mentioned, we run that business for profitable growth. So, we're always making trade-off decisions there as part of that. And the business will continue to mature. So we think that will be a contributor to getting us to free cash flow positive within that business as well.

David Motemaden

Analyst · Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Got it. That's helpful. Thank you. And then maybe -- just Carl, you had mentioned the specialty businesses have higher growth than the rest of the R&B segment. Could you just put some numbers around that and size how big your specialty businesses are? And what sort of growth rate they're growing at organically?

Carl Hess

Management

Yeah. So, I mean, what we classify as our specialized businesses or our global lines amount to about half of the portfolio for the CRB business. And I think we've -- nearly twice the growth rate, the fair way of looking at it, so you can back into the relative math on that.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Kligerman with TD Cowen. Your line is open.

Andrew Kligerman

Analyst · TD Cowen. Your line is open.

Hey. Good morning. So that R&B growth was an exceptional number at 12%. So I'm kind of curious going forward, looking at new hires, Carl, I think you said that you'd be strategic and opportunistic. How should we think about new hires next year in terms of -- is it going to be flat, up a little down a little? And then just on the strategic client engagement that you just touched on again, I'm still not quite clear on how that helps the he specialty groups. I mean, does it does it slow them down, because now you've got new people involved in the process or -- just want to make sure that -- or understand how that's going to help boost the specialty as opposed to make it a little more complicated?

Carl Hess

Management

Sure. Thanks Andrew for the question. Questions maybe I should say. First of all, with respect to talent acquisition plans, you're correct. I said we're focusing on strategic and opportunistic hiring. We've done I think -- Adam Garrard has done a fabulous job over the last couple years. He's a team of building back this business to full strength. But we're always going to be on the crawl for talent, right? We can find people who are attracted to our proposition who can add value and revenue -- we're going to be in that talent base. With regard to…

Andrew Kligerman

Analyst · TD Cowen. Your line is open.

The bias would be slightly up in new hires then -- said how I should take the strategies the opportunistic approach.

Carl Hess

Management

I think that -- I would anticipate that we are going to continue to be lookout for talent of the way we have, right, over the last several quarters, right? We don't hire just for the sake of hiring.

Andrew Kligerman

Analyst · TD Cowen. Your line is open.

Right.

Carl Hess

Management

With regard to our strategic client engagement, I think I look at it this way. We're trying to deliver best-in-class service to our client base and that involves making sure we understand their risks better than anybody else and that is a specialization and then it's fulfilling their needs, right? There's client engagement which is equally important. So I view this as -- and not a but.

Andrew Krasner

Management

And one of the primary focuses of the strategic client engagement concept is really going to be a focus on the industry verticals, but in particular, think about Fortune 1000 type clients where risk profiles may be more expensive and more complex than other organizations.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar with Jeffries. Your line is open.

Yaron Kinar

Analyst · Jeffries. Your line is open.

Thank you. Good morning, everybody. I guess my first question actually goes back to Elyse's question earlier in the call. When we see guidance and we see some of the underlying pieces move a bit namely where we're seeing higher expectation of cost-saves from restructuring, and at the same time we see the EPS and margin guidance essentially remain unchanged. I just want to make sure and again going back to Elyse's question, is there a degree of conservatism in there or are you seeing some offsets potentially that are keeping you at kind of the unchanged EPS guidance?

Andrew Krasner

Management

Yeah. I think it's probably a little bit of both there. We are want to make sure that we are focused on delivering on our commitments for 2024. And we talked about some of the puts and takes that we expect to play through 2024 as well.

Yaron Kinar

Analyst · Jeffries. Your line is open.

Okay. And can you maybe elaborate a little bit on kind of what the variables would be that would get you to the upper end versus the lower end of that guidance? What the main variables that you foresee today are?

Andrew Krasner

Management

If I think the biggest drive there is going to be organic growth, right, that will drive incremental operating leverage above maybe what our current expectations might be. So, I think that would be the biggest -- the biggest factor there.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Mark Marcon with Baird. Your line is open.

Mark Marcon

Analyst · Baird. Your line is open.

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Two questions. First, on the specialty lines, you said you're basically generating 2x the growth of the general lines. So to what extent or how long do you think you can keep up that higher level of growth on the specialty lines? In other words, are they still relatively new in the market and this is truly differentiated and this can enable you to continue to gain a lot of share? Or did we have a boost because of the talent additions and things will settle out? So, how should we think about that from a longer term perspective?

Carl Hess

Management

So part of this is strategic, right? In that we are focusing on these businesses that's where we are continue to invest and we see a return there. We've been a specialist broker for nearly 200 years right? So, I would hurt you that it's not likely to play itself out over the next couple. We've been doing this very successful, a very long time. The differentiator for us remember is that we're actually organizing the business around this as opposed to on the side of someone's desk and that enables us to focus on delivering enhanced value to superior analytics and client engagement that we think has a very attractive proposition. We don't see that abating.

Mark Marcon

Analyst · Baird. Your line is open.

Great. And then can you just talk a little bit about the pension and retirement business? How much of a boost could we end up getting with the change in rates and the ability to derisk? And then to what extent does the -- are you getting any additional engagements just in terms of the news that IBM made with regards to their shift in policy?

Carl Hess

Management

So, I mean, we do see the macroeconomic environment and where the funded position of pension plans are as stimulating demand for buy-ins and buyouts as we've talked about that not just necessarily transacting on them with the analysis that goes into them and the preparation so that that we do think that is helpful for us and our clients going into 2024. We…

Andrew Krasner

Management

And some of that will be episodic, right, as clients take on derisking transactions. So it's not going to be any one pattern throughout the year.

Carl Hess

Management

Yeah. And with respect to the client you were alluding to who is -- I guess reopened their defined benefit plan. This is the same where we all come. There's interest out there at least examining this on behalf of other plan sponsors who may be similarly situated. And we're well poised and well positioned to help clients with that evaluation.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Maya Shields with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. Your line is open.

Mark Shields

Analyst · Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. Your line is open.

Great. Thanks. Two quick questions. First, Carl, you talk about having 12 verticals and I was hoping to sort of outline how much of the Fortune 1000 that 12 verticals represent.

Carl Hess

Management

So, I don't think that maps quite right. For instance, one of our industry verticals focuses around alternative capital which you have private equity, right? So this is necessarily a public equity strategy, nor is it confined to the large market, right? We see -- the industry verticals stretch down to smaller organizations as well. So the answer is there's significant coverage across corporate America with our industry verticals. Some of them are quite broad and some of them are quite focused on areas where we think we can deliver particular value, say hospitality.

Mark Shields

Analyst · Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. Your line is open.

Okay. No, fair enough. Second and I'm not really sure how to ask this question, but you talked about how Adams brought back the staffing to full levels. Did we see full productivity from that group overall in either the fourth quarter of 2023 -- over the course of 2023 year, is still some momentum for the this newest cadre to expand productivity or expand margin?

Carl Hess

Management

Very much the latter. We do see. While we're very happy with the progress both our existing colleagues and our newer colleagues have made. We do see increased productivity as being part of the picture for our last cohorts of hires. Yes.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Josh Shanker with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Joshua Shanker

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Yeah. Thank you very much for putting me again. I just want to back a question Greg was asking at the beginning about the difference in the growth rates of the various segments. In aggregate, the growth seems pretty orderly, but by segments there seems to be a lot of volatility. Should we expect in the coming quarters that the segment organic growth rate will be volatile? That's the right way to think about how your business operates? Or should we expect there to be a general run rate where there's a trend from the previous quarter that might influence the next quarter?

Andrew Krasner

Management

Yeah. I think you're I think you're asking about sequential growth rates, parts of our business are seasonal. And we do have timing things which play out periodically between quarters year-to-year, so that is something to keep in mind and that is why we tend to focus on full year growth rates for our businesses.

Joshua Shanker

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Does the seasonality shown in 2023 represent a seasonality that we should consider in the 2024 year?

Andrew Krasner

Management

For the most part, I think throughout the year we call out a couple of unusual things. For example, the timing of BD&O between Q4 and Q3 revenue and I think there were a couple of other things throughout the year. And of course, you got to think about the impact of the book sales where we had some swings in some of the quarters where they were larger amounts of those, but expect to be through that largely going forward.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Mike Ward with City. Your line is open.

Michael Ward

Analyst · City. Your line is open.

Hey, guys. Thanks. Good morning. I was just curious, the margin guide relatively consistent, but you've spoken to some incremental savings. So just wondering if we should think about those savings maybe being offset by some costs? Could that actually benefit 2025 margins?

Andrew Krasner

Management

Yeah. So, as I had mentioned as regards -- with regard to the 2024 margin target, we do expect to be toward the higher end of that range. There's obviously some benefits from incremental savings that we talked about and the investments that we're making are really for. Future growth opportunities, but also will help us unlock additional operating leverage opportunities in the future. So we do think they'll be continual tailwinds beyond 2024 for some of the investments we're making now this year.

Michael Ward

Analyst · City. Your line is open.

Okay. Thanks. And then you spoke into some of the booking in the quarter. Wondering if you could talk about where attrition is running? If 2024 is kind of a normal year, just curious how much of a headwind we should expect this year for booking?

Andrew Krasner

Management

No, we expect to return back towards our historical normal level, so we don't expect any significant headwinds or tailwinds from booking going forward.

Carl Hess

Management

I would just add sort of thinking about attrition the overall level for the company, we are back down to well within the range we've had historically. So, a very manageable situation for us.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS. Your line is open.

Brian Meredith

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open.

Yeah. Thank you fit me. And Carl, I'm just curious, on the 10% organic growth you had for the year in R&B, you mentioned that it was new business and it was retentions. Is a way to kind of parse that out and how much of the kind of growth was client retention? Are you back to kind of your historical client retention levels, or is there more room for that to improve?

Carl Hess

Management

We are back which is great to see and that is the results superior client service I think that we have many, many, many colleagues. I do not rest on our laurels, but it's very nice to be where we are. Our performance new business has been just really first rate and very proud of the effort of the team is made of representing what we can do with WTW in the marketplace.

Brian Meredith

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open.

Great. Thank you. And then the second question. I'm just curious with your 2024 outlook, what is the baseline assumption with respect to economic growth and inflation as you kind of look out to -- you expect things to continue the way they, are any type of change?

Carl Hess

Management

I think continue the way they are over -- not looking too far back in the mirror on that one. We're not sort of anticipating incredible economic dislocation, nor are we sort of looking toward the incredible geopolitical dislocation. But we do recognize there's a lot of volatility out there. That is not -- not necessarily great for our clients, but it does mean that there's more opportunities for us to help them manage that volatility.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions in the queue. I would now like to turn the call back over to Carl Hess for closing remarks. End of Q&A:

Carl Hess

Management

So, thank you all again for joining us. I appreciate all of our WTW colleagues globally who have worked tirelessly to help us end the year on such a strong note. I am proud of everything we've achieved in 2023. I look forward to us keeping up the momentum for 2024.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.