Scott T. Scheirman
Analyst · JPMorgan
Thank you, Hikmet. As I review 2011 financial results, I will primarily focus on the fourth quarter. The similar information for the full year can be found in our press release and the attached financial schedules. Overall for the quarter, we delivered consolidated revenue growth of 5% on a reported basis and 6% on a constant currency basis. Excluding $35 million of revenue from the Travelex Global Business Payments acquisition, which closed on November 7, reported revenue increased to 3% or 4% on a constant currency basis for the quarter. Consolidated organic revenue growth was driven by increases in all regions of our consumer-to-consumer segment, both as consumer bill payments and double-digit growth in Western Union Business Solutions. Transaction fee revenue increased 2%, while foreign exchange revenue grew 20%, primarily due to the acquisition of Travelex. In the Consumer-to-consumer segment, reported revenue increased 3%, with transaction fee revenue up 2% and foreign exchange revenue up 6%. C2C constant currency revenue growth was 3% as compared to 4% in the third quarter, while transaction growth was 5%, the same as the third quarter. While we have revenue growth in each region, revenue trends were affected by the slowdown in Southern Europe as well as business challenges in Mexico, Russia and China. C2C cross-border principal grew 2% in the quarter or 3% on a constant currency basis. C2C principal per transaction declined 2% year-over-year or 1% on a constant currency basis. In the international C2C business, revenue grew 2% on a reported basis and 3% on a constant currency basis. International transaction growth was 5%. International principal per transaction declined 1% compared to the prior year on both a reported and constant currency basis. We ended the year with approximately 485,000 agent locations. This was the same number at the end of the third quarter because we closed approximately 15,000 inactive or lower activity Vigo agent locations in Russia and CIS countries. Turning to the regions. Our C2C business in the Europe, Middle East, Africa and South Asia region increased revenue at 2% and transactions at 3%. The revenue growth rate was down slightly from the third quarter due to currency and further challenges in Russia and Southern Europe, primarily Italy. As we mentioned in the third quarter, in Russia, we are losing business to retail-based competitors. We have action plans in place to counter this, but they will take time to implement, and we expect Russia to be a challenge throughout 2012. In addition to the economic situation in Southern Europe, new regulation in Italy are also impacting the business. Despite the headlines, other large markets in Europe, such as the U.K., France and Germany, held up well, and the Gulf States delivered good growth. In India, revenue growth remained strong at 12% and transaction growth increased to 15%. For the full year, the EMEASA operating margin was 28.7%, a 30 basis point increase from 2010. Turning to the Americas region. Revenue increased 3% on steady transaction growth of 6%. Although not as strong as third quarter, domestic money transfer continues to have solid momentum with revenue growth of 7% on transaction growth of 11% in the quarter. Mexico revenue declined 1%, while transactions increased 1% in the quarter. Our Mexico business continues to be affected by ongoing compliance procedures related to our southwest border agreement. In 2012, we will be evolving our business model and practices related to Mexico. We're in the process of renewing agent agreements and changing how we operate in Mexico, including further compliance-related changes. As a result of these factors, we expect our Mexico business to decline in 2012, as we modify the business. U.S. outbound continues to grow with growth rates increasingly slightly relative to the third quarter. For the year, the Americas' operating margin was 28.5%, an increase of 30 basis points from the prior year. Asia-Pacific revenue increased 6% in the quarter, a decline from the third quarter rate, while transactions improved to an increase of 8%. Australia delivered good growth, but not as strong as the third quarter, while the Philippines delivered similar growth to the third quarter. In China, revenue declined 5% in the quarter, while transactions increased 1%. China was affected by currency controls or other restrictions implemented in certain countries in Africa and Latin America, which impacted high principal outbound activity from these countries to China. The Asia-Pacific operating margin for 2011 was 28% compared to 28.7% in 2010. For the C2C business overall, the spread between transaction revenue growth in the quarter was 2 percentage points. The impact of net price decreases was 1% again in the fourth quarter and mix was 1%. For the 2011 full year, the impact of net price decreases was 1%, and we expect 2012 to be in the 1% to 2% range. Within C2C, electronic channels revenue increased 36% in the quarter and represented 3% of total company revenue. Account-based money transfer transactions through banks increased over 40% for the quarter and increased 40% for the year. We now have over 80 banks signed for account-based money transfer with 44 active. One of our most recent ABMT signings is a major European bank, UniCredit in Italy, which will also offer ATM and kiosk services. Westernunion.com had transaction growth of over 30% for the quarter and just below 30% for the year, with transaction growth in international markets over 40% for both the quarter and the year. Although mobile is still a small business, we're seeing strong adoptions in some corridors, such as the U.K. to Kenya, and U.S. to Kenya. In fact, over 30% of our U.K. to Kenya transactions are now sent to a mobile phone. Also, our mobile apps for the iPhone and Android are gaining traction as access to points to westernunion.com. In prepaid, we ended the year with nearly 1.5 million cards in force, and retail distribution at over 15,000 U.S. locations. In the quarter, approximately $115 million of principal was loaded onto Western Union prepaid cards through 500,000 loads. Starting in the first quarter of 2012, our GPR cards are now available in more than 3,000 7-Eleven locations with more being added. We also launched our first prepaid expansion in Europe, in the U.K., and began testing in Austria and Germany in the fourth quarter. In total, prepaid, including third-party top up, represented just under 1% of company revenue for the year. Moving to Global Business Payments. Overall segment revenue increased 24% in the quarter, including $35 million in revenue from Travelex. Western Union Business Solutions reported revenue growth of 13%, excluding the acquisition. The consumer bill payment business continued its steady improvement, with revenue increasing 2%, led by strong international growth. U.S. revenue trends were similar to the third quarter. Turning to margins. The fourth quarter consolidated GAAP operating margin was 25.0%, which compares to 23.7% or 24.5%, excluding restructuring expenses in the prior year. The improvement is primarily due to revenue leverage, restructuring savings, Durbin and lower marketing expense, partially offset by Travelex deal costs and intangibles amortization. Travelex results negatively impacted operating margins by approximately 100 basis points. This includes about $5 million of integration expense as we began integration in the quarter. In addition, there were $9 million in cost related to completion of the acquisition. Marketing expenses were 4.4% of revenue in the quarter compared to 5% in the prior year. Marketing for the year was consistent with 2010 at approximately 4% of revenue. There were no restructuring expenses in the quarter, as we completed all activities in the third quarter, and we realized approximately $19 million in restructuring savings in the quarter. As a reminder, restructuring charges are not included in our segment operating results. For the full year of 2011, GAAP operating margin of 25.2% is consistent with 2010 GAAP operating margin of 25.0%. Excluding restructuring charges, 2011 operating margin of 26.1% is also consistent with 2010 operating margin at 26.2% on the same basis. Excluding restructuring charges, the relatively consistent year-over-year margins of approximately 26% were a result benefits from restructuring savings and revenue leverage, offset by foreign exchange, spending on initiatives and acquisition-related costs. The company recorded a total of $47 million of restructuring charges in 2011. We realized approximately $55 million of related savings. We continue to expect approximately $70 million of savings in 2012. In 2010, we reported $60 million of restructuring expense with $8 million of savings. Our 2011 earnings per share include some nonrecurring gains in other income. In the fourth quarter, we recorded a gain of $20 million related to the revaluation of the company's previous ownership position in Finint, as we indicated earlier in the year. We also recorded a gain of $21 million on foreign currency forward contracts related primarily to the acquisition of Travelex Global Business Payments. We entered into forward contracts to lock in the dollar volume of a portion of the anticipated purchase price, which generated a gain when the British pound appreciated. As a result of the forward contract gain, the overall impact of that Travelex acquisition on EPS was neutral in 2011, including the deal cost. For the full year, we reported $50 million of gains relating to the revaluation of ownership position in Angelo Costa and Finint, which were included in our last outlook, and we recorded the $21 million gain on foreign currency forward contracts related to the acquisition. The tax provision in the quarter reflects the benefit of approximately $205 million related to the agreement with the IRS, which was announced mid-December. We have previously established tax contingencies reserves over the last 8 years related to the restructuring of our international tax operations in 2003. As we resolve the appropriate tax treatment of the IRS, we agreed to make tax payments of approximately $200 million, which we anticipate as we made in 2012, in addition to the $250 million deposit we made in 2010. Since we have reserved at a higher level, we recorded a onetime noncash benefit of $205 million to our tax provision in the fourth quarter. Excluding the benefit, our effective tax rate in the quarter was 29.8%. This compares to an effective tax rate of approximately 23% on a year-to-date basis for September 30, as we had some international reserve increases and other items in the fourth quarter. For the full year, the company's effective tax rate would have been approximately 25%, excluding the tax benefit related to the IRS agreement and the impact of restructuring expenses. Earnings per share in the quarter was $0.73 or $0.40 excluding the tax benefit. GAAP EPS was $0.37 in the fourth quarter of last year or $0.38 excluding restructuring charges. Earnings per share in the full year were $1.84 or $1.57 excluding the tax benefit and restructuring expenses. This compares to GAAP EPS of $1.36 or $1.42 excluding restructuring charges in 2010. Common shares outstanding as of 2011 year-end were 619 million. Our C2C segment operating margin in the quarter was 28.0% compared to 27.0% in the same period last year. The improvement was due to restructuring savings, revenue leverage and lower marketing spending. For the full year, C2C operating margin increased to 28.6% in 2011 from 28.4% in 2010, driven by the restructuring savings and revenue leverage, partially offset by the impact of foreign exchange and spending on initiatives. Global Business Payments' operating margin was 17.5% compared to 13.3% in the fourth quarter of 2010. The margin improved compared to last year primarily due to revenue increases, restructuring savings, the impact of lower debit processing expenses related to Durbin and lower integration and investment spending in Western Union Business Solutions. The reduction of debit fees due to Durbin is having a positive impact on our consumer bill payments margins, although it will negatively impact revenue in some cases as we pass through the savings. Full year Global Business Payments' operating margin increased from 17.0% in 2010 to 17.9% in 2011, driven by many of the same factors in the fourth quarter. Consumer bill payment margins improved slightly in 2011 compared to 2010. Moving to our cash flow and balance sheet. Our financial position remained strong. Cash flow from operations for the year was $1.2 billion and capital expenditures were $163 million. Capital expenditures were 3% of revenue for the year. Depreciation and amortization expense was approximately $193 million. At year-end, the company had debt of $3.6 billion and cash of $1.4 billion, of which approximately $500 million was outside the United States. As a result of the IRS agreement, we have been able to move additional cash back to the U.S. During the fourth quarter, we retired $700 million in maturing notes, which had already been replaced by issuances since earlier in the year. In the fourth quarter, we declared $50 million in quarterly dividend, which were paid on December 30. Consistent with our comments on our third quarter call, we did not repurchase any shares in the fourth quarter, but plan to resume buyback activity in the first quarter. We had approximately $650 million remaining under our existing share repurchase authorization as of year-end. Now I'd like to review our outlook for 2012. In general, we're anticipating a more challenging economic situation this year. We saw some slowdowns in our C2C business in the fourth quarter of 2011 and expect similar growth rates in 2012. Our outlook assumes softness in Europe. In the Americas, we expect our U.S. outbound and domestic money transfer businesses to remain solid, but we're anticipating decline in Mexico, as we evolve our business model and compliance practices. The C2C revenue outlook includes solid double-digit growth in electronic channels. In Business Solutions, we anticipate constant currency revenue to grow in the low double-digits on a pro-forma basis. Revenue from current business-to-business customers are impacted by movements in global trade, but we still anticipate strong new customer acquisition. Our bill payments business is expected to be steady, although reported revenues will be somewhat negatively impacted by Durbin pass-throughs. Overall, we expect constant currency revenue growth in the range of 6% to 8% in 2012. This includes a 4 percentage point benefit from having a full year Travelex Global Business Payments revenues compared to approximately 2 months in 2011. We expect GAAP revenues to be approximately 2 percentage points lower than constant currency. As you are aware, the U.S. dollar has strengthened significantly compared to the 2011 average euro rate of approximately $1.40. As a reminder, we hedged the majority of our European profits, so currency movements have a larger impact on revenue than operating profit. Moving forward, we would expect any additional 5% move in the European currencies to have a full year impact to our 2012 outlook for approximately $55 million on revenue and approximately $6 million on operating profit. Our operating margins are expected to be similar to 2011 levels, including the negative impact of intangibles amortization from the Travelex acquisition. However, we do expect EBITDA margins to increase in 2012. We anticipate GAAP margins of approximately 25%, which compares to 25.2% in 2011. Current year GAAP margins include approximately $50 million of integration expense from Travelex Global Business Payments, while prior year included $52 million of restructuring expenses and Travelex integration costs. Excluding Travelex integration costs, we expect 2012 operating margins of approximately 26%, which compares to 26.2% excluding restructuring expenses and Travelex integration costs in 2011. Items that are favorably impacting the margins include: revenue growth, currency hedges on European profits, Durbin, lower deal costs and approximately $15 million of additional restructuring savings. These benefits to margin are being offset primarily by increased amortization and incremental investments in the business. The acquisition-related intangibles amortization for Business Solutions will increase for approximately $20 million in 2011 to around $60 million in 2012 due to the Travelex acquisition. We also plan to build out our digital business, which is already well underway. From a P&L standpoint, we are investing about $35 million of incremental expense into this initiative in 2012, hiring talented digital employees, enhancing technology solutions and increasing consumer marketing. This will become new infrastructure and our goal is to create $0.5 billion-plus digital revenue business by 2015. We're also investing in network expansion, allocating additional funds to increase sales forces and to drive new accounts acquisition. As a result of all these factors, we expect essentially flat operating margins compared to 2011. Due to the increasing magnitude of acquisition-related intangibles amortization, we will also provide EBITDA metrics going forward. The EBITDA metric will reflect operating income with depreciation and amortization added back. All other income and expense is excluded from the metric. We expect 2012 EBITDA margin of approximately 30%, excluding the Travelex integration expenses. This compares to 29.6% in 2011, excluding Travelex integration costs and restructuring expenses. Our 2012 net other expense is expected to increase from 2011 due to the $71 million in non-reoccurring acquisition-related gains recorded last year. We expect an effective tax rate in the range of 16% to 17% in 2012, following our agreement with the IRS late last year on treatment of our international operations. This compares to an effective tax rate of 25% in 2011, excluding the tax benefit related to the IRS agreement and the impact of restructuring expenses. Bringing this all together, we expect GAAP earnings per share in the range of $1.65 to $1.70 in 2012. GAAP EPS was $1.84 in 2011, aided by the onetime $205 million tax benefit. Our outlook calls for EPS, excluding Travelex integration costs, to be in the range of $1.70 to $1.75 compared to $1.57 in 2011, excluding restructuring expenses and the non-reoccurring tax benefit. The increase in 2012 is driven by revenue growth and a lower effective tax rate, partially offset by the acquisition-related non-reocurring gains in 2011 and other income and expense. As mentioned, operating margins in 2012 are expected to be similar to 2011, as benefits are offsetting increased amortization and investments. We expect cash flow from operations in a range of $1 billion to $1.1 billion or $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion, excluding the anticipated tax payment of approximately $200 million to the IRS and state tax authorities related to the agreement announced in December. Our future cash flow is now expected to be roughly 65% international and 35% domestic, which reflects some standard repatriation each year. However, based on the IRS agreement and other factors, we also anticipate being able to bring back additional international cash to the U.S. Capital expenditures are anticipated to be 4% to 5% of revenue in 2012. This year, we anticipate a significant increase in signing bonuses on Asian contracts, as we have several major renewals, and we are aggressively pursuing new agents. We're also adding to investments in westernunion.com and new technology. Longer term, we expect capital spending to come back down to approximately 3% of revenue. We plan to continue to manage our capital structure to balance returns with strong credit ratings, while maintaining appropriate debt and cash level. At this time, we do not anticipate pursuing any sizable acquisition. However, we may continue to evaluate smaller acquisitions that support our growth strategies. Before opening the call to questions, I would also like to mention that in 2012, we would be evolving our segment reporting. We will maintain our consumer-to-consumer segment, but we'll now have separate segments for business-to-business and consumer bill payments, rather than the Global Business Payments segment. Within the C2C segment, we will provide metrics on 5 regions that align with our regional leadership team. The 5 regions are Europe and CIS, Middle East and Africa, Asia-Pacific, North America and Latin America. India and South Asia will be included in the Asia-Pacific region. Our prepaid and retail money order businesses will continue to be reported in the Other category. We'll provide restated comparisons for these changes, prior to our first quarter earnings release. To summarize, we believe 2011 was a good year, given the environment. We exceeded our initial EPS outlook for the year and recorded our highest annual revenue growth since 2008. We advanced our strategies, and we added a strong foundation for growth in business-to-business payments with the Travelex acquisition. We also successfully executed our restructuring and reached resolution with the IRS on our international tax position. Finally, we returned to $1 billion to shareholders, and today announced the 25% increase in our dividend. We expect some challenges in 2012, but are focused on execution in investing in the areas we believe will position us well for long-term growth, including core consumer money transfer, business-to-business and digital channel. Operator, we are now ready for the first question.