Scott T. Scheirman
Analyst · Jefferies
Thank you, Hikmet. Overall, for the quarter, we reported consolidated revenue growth of 1% on a reported basis and 3% in constant currency. Consolidated pro forma revenue decreased 1% constant currency, including Travelex Global Business Payments in the prior year period. Constant currency revenue was negatively impacted by approximately 2 percentage points due to declines in the Vigo and Orlandi Valuta brands, which resulted from Southwest Border compliance-related changes. In the consumer-to-consumer segment, reported revenue decreased 4% or 1% constant currency, while transactions were flat compared with the prior year period. Excluding the Vigo and Orlandi Valuta brands, Western Union branded consumer-to-consumer constant currency revenue grew 1% on transaction growth of 3%. We are generally seeing softer economic conditions in much of the world, including continued weakness in Southern Europe and some slowing in the U.S. C2C cross-border principal declined 7% in the quarter or 4% on a constant currency basis. C2C principal per transaction declined 6% year-over-year and 3% on a constant currency basis. Turning to the regions. C2C revenue in the Europe and CIS region, which represented 22% of consolidated revenues, decreased 9% year-over-year. This decline included a negative 5% impact from currency translation. Transactions in the region declined 3%. Germany continued to hold up well with strong growth in the quarter. And many other parts of Europe have slowed and Southern Europe remained soft. Russia is down, but tracking to our outlook, as we implement our turnaround strategies and build our retail network in that market. Turning to North America. Revenue declined 8% from the prior year, while transactions were down 5%. The region represented 20% of total company revenue. U.S. outbound revenue declined, while domestic money transfer revenue remained flat on transaction growth of 7% in the quarter. Domestic $5 for $50 program continue to have strong growth. However, there were slowing in the higher principal bands in the U.S. Mexico revenue declined 22% and transactions decreased 18% in the quarter. As we told you in February, we anticipated losing revenue and market share in Mexico due to compliance-related changes throughout the year. In the third quarter, we implemented a series of new system requirements that impacted our Vigo and Orlandi Valuta agent networks. As many of our agents could not meet the new requirements to increase our real time transaction visibility, we had to end those relationships, which resulted in a reduction of approximately 7,000 locations or 40% of our network in Mexico. New requirements and system conversions for Vigo also caused disruption to our business in several Latin American countries. We expect the Mexico trends to be challenging over the next 3 to 4 quarters, while we work to increase our agent base and implement other consumer and agent-focused actions. Turning to the Middle East and Africa region. Revenue in the quarter was flat on a reported basis, including a negative 3% impact from currency, while transactions grew 4%. The Asia Pacific region grew 1%, including a negative 1% impact from currency translation, with transaction growth of 2%. China revenue increased slightly, excluding the impact of currency, following declines in the first half of the year. The Latin America and Caribbean region delivered revenue trends similar to the second quarter, with revenue growth of 4%, including a negative 3% impact from currency. Transactions declined 2% in the quarter and were negatively impacted by the compliance-related changes we made to our Vigo business, while revenue benefited from geographic and product mix. Westernunion.com C2C revenue increased 22%, including a 4% negative impact from currency translation and remains on track to our targets. Westernunion.com transactions grew a very strong 40%, aided by some of our promotional activity to acquire new customers. As a reminder, westernunion.com results are not included in the growth rates of the other 5 regions, although they are included when we discuss specific country trends. Total electronic channel revenue, which includes westernunion.com, as well as account-based money transfer in mobile increased 25% in the quarter. Electronic channels now represent 4% of total company revenue, up from 3% of revenue in the year ago quarter. In addition to the westernunion.com growth, revenue from account-based money transfer through banks increased 32%. We now have nearly 110 banks signed for account-based money transfer, with about 1/2 of the banks already launched. We also have 37 mobile network contracts, with 15 actively operating. Prepaid revenue increased 9% in the quarter. In total, prepaid, including third-party top-up, represented approximately 1% of company revenue. Our prepaid cards were available at approximately 31,000 retail locations globally at the end of the quarter, including approximately 1,000 locations outside of the U.S. Turning back to the total C2C business. The spread between transaction and revenue growth in the quarter was 1 percentage point, excluding the impact of currency, which negatively impacted the spread by 3 points. In C2C, the impact of net price decreases was approximately 2% in the third quarter, while mix was favorable by 1%. On a year-to-date basis, the pricing impact remains at approximately 1% of company revenue. Moving to the consumer-to-business segment. Revenue decreased 5% in the quarter, including a negative 3% from currency translation. The U.S. walk-in business declined, and the electronic business continues to be affected by the pass-through of some of the debit fee savings related to Durbin. The South American business continues to have steady growth. Business Solutions reported revenue of $95 million in the quarter, which compared to $34 million a year ago. On a pro forma basis, including Travelex results in the prior year, Business Solutions' constant currency revenue was flat, although it did increase from the second quarter. The business was impacted by slowing global trade and high growth comparisons with the third quarter of last year, when Western Union Business Solutions revenue increased 31% or 22% in constant currency terms. Our customer count is increasing nicely, up 5% from a year ago, and we continue to expand geographically. Transactions are growing in low double-digits, but principal per transaction is down in part due to de-accelerating trade growth. We have updated our full year revenue outlook to low to mid-single digit growth for this business, which reflects the economic slowdown in key markets. The Travelex integration is on track and remains planned for completion in 2013. Turning to consolidated margins. The third quarter consolidated GAAP operating margin was 25.7% in the current and prior year period. Consolidated operating margin was 26.4%, excluding $10 million of Travelex integration expenses, compared to 26.7%, excluding $14 million of restructuring expenses in the prior year period. EBITDA margin, excluding integration expense, was 30.7%, which increased from 30.0% in the third quarter of last year, excluding restructuring expenses. Compared to prior year, the consolidated margin benefited from currency, lower compensation costs and Durbin, but these benefits were offset by Business Solutions amortization, incremental compliance cost related to Southwest Border and Dodd-Frank, and investments in IT and westernunion.com. The tax rate in the quarter was 16.8%, which compares to 23.6% in the third quarter of last year. As a reminder, the decrease in our tax rate is primarily due to the resolution of the U.S. tax treatment of our international operation, as we noted in the announcement of our agreement with the U.S. Internal Revenue Service last December. Reported earnings per share in the quarter were $0.45, compared to $0.38 in the prior year. EPS was $0.46, excluding Travelex integration expenses, which compared to $0.40, excluding restructuring charges in the prior year. Earnings per share increased 15%, excluding integration expense in the current quarter and restructuring expense in the prior year period. The C2C operating segment margin improved to 29.4%, compared to 29.0% in the same period last year. Margin benefited primarily from currency and lower compensation costs, with partial offsets from IT and other investments and higher compliance costs. The consumer-to-business operating margin increased to 25.3%, compared to 21.0% in the prior year period. Margin improvement was primarily driven by lower debit fees related to Durbin. Business Solutions reported an operating loss of $7 million for the quarter, compared to a loss of $2 million in the year ago period. Next year's operating loss does not include Travelex Global Business Payments. The current quarter $7 million loss includes $17 million of depreciation and amortization and $10 million of Travelex integration expense. There's approximately $1 million that is included in both amortization and integration expense. Depreciation and amortization in last year's third quarter was $5 million. Business Solutions EBITDA margin of 20%, excluding integration expenses, improved from 8% in the first quarter and 15% in the second quarter. Turning to our cash flow and balance sheet. We continue to generate strong cash flow. Year-to-date cash flow from operations was $860 million, which includes the impact of approximately $90 million of net tax payments relating to the agreement with the IRS. There were approximately $100 million in tax payments related to this agreement that remain to be paid, and we expect to pay those in 2013. Capital expenditures in the quarter were $62 million or 4% of revenue. Depreciation and amortization expense was $61 million in the quarter. At the end of the third quarter, the company had debt of $3.4 billion and cash of $1.4 billion. Approximately 1/2 of the cash was in the United States. During the third quarter, we repurchased approximately 6 million shares, totaling $112 million at an average price of $17.51. In addition, we declared $60 million in dividends. Year-to-date, we've returned over $600 million through buybacks and dividends, while repurchases this year represent approximately 4% of the total shares outstanding. As of September 30, our shares outstanding were 599 million shares, and we had $194 million remaining under our existing repurchase authorization, which expires at the end of 2012. Today, we announced a 25% increase of our dividend to $0.50 per share annually and an additional $550 million repurchase authorization, which expires at the end of 2013. We would anticipate continuing to increase the dividend in future years consistent with business performance. Turning to the outlook for 2012. We have updated our projections to reflect lower second half revenue trends and the impact of expenses related to the productivity and cost savings initiatives. We are implementing some new cost savings initiatives in the fourth quarter to help fund growth investments and enhance long-term profitability. These initiatives contemplate a reduction of the company's overall headcount and the migration and consolidation of positions from various facilities, primarily within the United States and Europe, to regional operating centers and third-party providers, among other actions. We have currently identified actions that should generate $30 million of annual savings by 2014. To realize these savings, we will incur pretax expenses of approximately $30 million in fourth quarter this year, which is now reflected in our margin and EPS outlook. We anticipate identifying and implementing additional cost savings initiatives throughout 2013. As a result of these items, the updated 2012 outlook for revenue and margin is now 4% to 5% constant currency revenue growth, including a 4% benefit from the full year inclusion of Travelex. GAAP revenue growth 2% lower than constant currency. GAAP margins of approximately 23.5%. Operating margins, excluding TGBP integration expense of approximately 24.5%, EBITDA margins, excluding TGBP integration expense, of approximately 29%. All the margin metrics are down 1 percentage point from the previous outlook, with 1/2 of the decline due to the $30 million of expenses related to the cost savings initiatives and the remainder primarily due to lower revenue projections. For the full year, we now expect a tax rate between 14% and 15%, which is down from our previous outlook, partially due to the expenses related to the cost savings initiatives, reducing U.S.-based income in the fourth quarter. We currently would expect the 2013 effective tax rate to be somewhat higher due to some nonrecurring benefits in 2012. The updated earnings per share outlook for 2012 is: GAAP EPS in a range of $1.60 to $1.63, compared to $1.68 to $1.72 in the previous outlook; and EPS, excluding Travelex integration expenses, of $1.65 to $1.68, which compares to $1.73 to $1.77 previously. EPS was negatively impacted by $0.04 from our prior outlook due to the $30 million of expenses related to the new cost savings initiatives. Our outlook for cash flow from operations is now expected to be approximately $1.1 billion or approximately $1.2 billion, excluding payments of $90 million that we've already been made relating to the IRS agreement. We will provide our outlook for 2013 when we announce our fourth quarter results in February. As Hikmet mentioned, while we are still evaluating several potential pricing actions, we currently expect consumer money transfer pricing investments as a percentage of revenue to be in the mid-single-digit range in 2013. Pricing investments typically result in revenue declines in the affected corridors in the initial year, but they drive transaction growth and customer acquisition, leading to subsequent revenue growth in the future. Based on current economic conditions and the expected accelerated pricing investments, we currently anticipate slight revenue declines in 2013 in constant currency terms. As part of our strategic action plans, we also anticipate significantly increasing investments in 2013 across IT and other areas to support digital, stored value, other new product development and innovation and the customer experience. Combining revenue declines, cost associated with higher transactions and the incremental investments, we believe GAAP operating income in 2013 could decline 10% to 15% from 2012 levels, if all plans are implemented as contemplated and the economy remains soft. Business Solutions' profitability is expected to improve significantly in 2013, including the impact of lower integration expenses and higher synergies. These are very high level expected projections, as we have not yet completed a bottoms-up financial planning process for 2013. But directionally, we believe these ranges reflect the expected impact of the strategic actions and current environment. We'll have a clearer picture of 2013 in February, and we will update you with a more detailed outlook for the year. We expect our strategic actions to lead to positive revenue and operating income trends in 2014. To summarize, while some parts of our business are facing economic, competitive and compliance-driven challenges, we believe we have the right action plans in place to position us for long-term growth in retail and digital money transfer, as well as Business Solutions and stored value. We also expect to continue to implement productivity improvements and cost saving initiatives to drive our business and profitability over the long term. Operator, we are now ready for the first question.