Earnings Labs

Woodward, Inc. (WWD)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Mon, Nov 9, 2015

$363.05

-0.98%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Woodward, Inc. Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2015 Earnings Call. At this time, I would like to inform you that this call is being recorded for rebroadcast and that all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, you will be invited to participate in a question-and-answer session. Joining us today from the company are Mr. Tom Gendron, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Bob Weber, Vice Chairman, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer; and Mr. Don Guzzardo, Director of Investor Relations and Treasury. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Guzzardo. Don Guzzardo - Director-Investor Relations & Treasury: Thank you, operator. We would like to welcome all of you to Woodward's fourth quarter and fiscal year 2015 earnings call. In today's call, Tom will comment on our markets and related strategies and then Bob will discuss our financial results as outlined in our earnings release. At the end of our presentation, we will take questions. For those of you who've not seen today's earnings release, you can find it on our website at woodward.com. We have again included some presentation materials to go along with today's call that are also accessible on our website. An audio replay of this call will be available by phone or on our website through November 23, 2015. The phone number for the audio replay is on the press release announcing this call and will be repeated by the operator at the end of the call. Before we begin, I'd like to refer to and highlight our cautionary statement as shown on slide three. As always, elements of this presentation are forward-looking or based on our outlook and assumptions for the global economy and our businesses more specifically. Those elements can and…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Gautam Khanna. Your line is now open. Please proceed with your question. Gautam Khanna - Cowen & Co. LLC: Yes, thanks. Gautam Khanna of Cowen. Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yes, hello. Gautam Khanna - Cowen & Co. LLC: Gentlemen – hello, how you? Thanks for the great color in the prepared remarks. I was hoping you could tease out a little bit more of the segment sales guidance, if you will. What should we anticipate, what are you assuming for the Energy segment and if you could maybe parse out the various end markets within that segment as to your expectations? Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. As we said, Aerospace we believe will remain strong and we're probably looking at approximately a 2% to 4% increase in Aerospace. We do believe that Energy will remain challenging with really no major change in any of the assumptions and we're looking at approximately 0% to 2% on segment earnings for our Energy segment. What I did I say, segment earnings? Gautam Khanna - Cowen & Co. LLC: Yeah. Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sorry, sales. Sales, sorry. Gautam Khanna - Cowen & Co. LLC: 0% to 2%, down 0% to 2% and plus 2% to 4% at Aero, is that right? Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: No, 0% to 2% up for Energy sales. Gautam Khanna - Cowen & Co. LLC: Okay. Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: And 2% to 4% up for Aerospace sales. Gautam Khanna - Cowen & Co. LLC: Okay. And within Energy, can you talk about some of the major end…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Sheila K. Kahyaoglu - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Hi, good afternoon, guys. Thank you for taking my questions. Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Hi, Sheila.

Sheila K. Kahyaoglu - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Hey. Just one follow-up on the Energy one quickly. There was some organic improvement in the quarter. Would you attribute that to, I guess, the IGT business, OEM aftermarket and that's what's expected to continue? Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yes, we had good aftermarket in the IGT business, the OE side with our customer mix, it's favorable. You know, with the way the order book's flowing, so we see that as a positive. But what we also saw in the fourth quarter of 2015 and we see going into 2016, the market share gains that we've been talking about the last three years have entered production and we are generating sales from those. So those are offsetting some of the market declines and that covers diesel engines, natural gas engines, as well as steam turbine portfolio and the gas turbine portfolio. So, we are starting to see the market share gains and that's one of the things that's keeping us positive going into 2016 on sales.

Sheila K. Kahyaoglu - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Okay. Got it. Thank you. And then just within the Aerospace business on the margin side, the 50 basis points to 100 basis points of improvement, could you maybe elaborate a little bit more on how mix play a factor into that and also R&D and any start-up manufacturing costs we should be thinking about? Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, the R&D and start-up manufacturing costs are all built into that, primarily what we're seeing is continued margin improvement. And I'd say the bulk of it's coming from our lean manufacturing initiatives, our new facilities are going to facilitate that as well. So, it's all part of the plan we've had. Good aftermarket obviously plays into that and our aftermarket is holding, and do you want to say, progressing as planned, so most of it is coming out of productivity initiatives.

Sheila K. Kahyaoglu - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Got it. Thank you very much. Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of William Bremer from Maxim Group. Your line is now open

William Bremer - Maxim Group LLC

Analyst

Good morning, gentlemen Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Hi, Bill. Robert F. Weber - Vice Chairman, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: Hi, Bill.

William Bremer - Maxim Group LLC

Analyst

Could you give us an update on the joint venture with GE and how that's playing through for 2016 versus say when it was announced? Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Really no significant change whatsoever. We're still on-track. We believe we'll close at the end of the colander year and as we've mentioned in the past, no significant impact to our either top or bottom line. Some geography change and that's about it

William Bremer - Maxim Group LLC

Analyst

Okay. So you basically voiced early and I'm not sure if I heard you correct, the Aerospace up 2% to 4%, that's on a year, right, and Energy 0% to 2%? Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: That's right.

William Bremer - Maxim Group LLC

Analyst

Okay. And first quarter we're voicing pretty much, you know, more historical for first quarter. Is it mix or what really is the reason behind such a more muted type of first call here on the first quarter? Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Bill, it's really volume we're looking at, the delivery books as well as, definitely we have less working days in the quarter, with holidays and shutdowns, we do shut our plants down here in the first quarter. So, when we combine all that, we see lower volume, which is going to equate to lower earnings in the first quarter than last year. Last year was an abnormal – well, it was a positive year. We're going to be more traditional, which is our first quarters are generally down.

William Bremer - Maxim Group LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of J.B. Groh from D.A. Davidson. Your line is now open. John B. Groh - D.A. Davidson & Co.: Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my call. I think I can probably back into this answer from your guidance, but could you talk about the R&D budget for 2016 and should that kind of mirror what's going on with CapEx, or is it going to be completely independent? Robert F. Weber - Vice Chairman, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: It would be more independent. So, we've had high spend in both the R&D side and the capital side. The capital will be falling off in the first – at the end of the first half. The R&D spending will be largely flat is what we called out for 2016. John B. Groh - D.A. Davidson & Co.: And when you say flat, you mean flat dollars or flat percentage of revenue, I guess, when it's flat growth it doesn't make a difference. But... Robert F. Weber - Vice Chairman, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: No, you're right. Much to our dismay, but yes. John B. Groh - D.A. Davidson & Co.: Okay. All right. Hey, that's all I had. Thank you. Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. Robert F. Weber - Vice Chairman, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Michael Ciarmoli from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Michael F. Ciarmoli - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Hey, good afternoon, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure.

Michael F. Ciarmoli - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Maybe just on the guidance for next year, if I'm looking at this and doing the math on a share count of 63 million, 28% tax, to get down to that $2.75, it would almost assume margins have to decline year-on-year. So maybe can you give us the puts and takes to what needs to happen to hit that low end versus the high end on earnings or are there any other moving parts in there or anything else going on with corporate? Robert F. Weber - Vice Chairman, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: Just to make sure, so the midpoint of the range is $2.85, right?

Michael F. Ciarmoli - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Right. I'm asking about the low end, though, how do you get down to...? Robert F. Weber - Vice Chairman, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: The low end of the range. Yeah, as you point out, there are a lot of puts and takes potentially. We do believe the Energy side of the equation has lots of uncertainty. So further volume reductions on the Energy side would probably be what it would take to get down to the low end of that range.

Michael F. Ciarmoli - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

So would that – but then – would there be revenue downside then on the Energy, I mean assuming it seems like then the EPS bakes in volume declines, but the top line doesn't, I think you guys got it, you said flat to 2% on Energy, so would that kind of volume pressure assume Energy could be worse than flat next year? Robert F. Weber - Vice Chairman, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: No. I mean we still believe it will be 0% to 2%. I think from the – obviously there's a lot of mix embedded in that, so there are ups and downs and ups and downs. So that relative mix even on flat sales could cause to us hit the bottom of that range.

Michael F. Ciarmoli - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Okay, okay. And then just on Aerospace, as the neo cuts in should we – and we start to see Airbus transition to more production of the neo. I mean should we be thinking about a different kind of ramp in the Aerospace segment, just as the cadence of neos versus the current engine ramps up? Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, definitely as we – the Neo hits in 2016 and the MAX in the 2017 and you see the production rate going up, they're going to be transitioning as you're calling out. So, we see really some nice steady growth in the Aerospace segment between 2016 and 2018 as the lines – as the production ramps and as the lines switch over from the current version to the new versions. Same time we also believe we'll be seeing a much higher level of initial provision in spares tied to the large amount of content we have on these new programs and the launch of a brand new engine. So, as we move from 2016 as the neo gets going and into 2017 when the MAX and then to 2018, that is the future growth profile that we believe we're going to be seeing going forward and it's very healthy.

Michael F. Ciarmoli - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Got it. You bring up a good point on the provisioning. Do you expect to see any of the neo provisioning sales this year? Will that move the needle or is that you think that'll be more of a 2017 event? Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: We think we're going to start seeing it in 2016 and with provisioning it's not like a production line, so there's a little bit of timing with it. There's quarterly variability, but we will start seeing in 2016 and definitely in 2017. So it will start this year.

Michael F. Ciarmoli - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Perfect. And then just last one for me guys, you called out aftermarket being up 10% in the quarter, were there any – and I think we're still seeing kind of choppiness out there, were there any specific platforms that you guys could point to that drove that growth, was it just kind of strength across the board or any color there? Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I would say it was strength across the board. When you get out of the summer season you start to see some maintenance work taking place, so that always helps drive some of the aftermarket and we did have a good spares sale quarter. So, it was across the board mix of all sorts, but very healthy aftermarket.

Michael F. Ciarmoli - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Got. Perfect. Thank you very much, guys. Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Jim Foung from Gabelli & Company. Your line is now open. Please proceed with question.

James V. Foung - G.research LLC

Analyst

Hi. Good morning, guys, good evening rather. So I was wondering if you're seeing any pressure from Airbus on the narrowbody production, they increased their, top rate to 60 a month by 2019. But I think clearly they probably want to kind of produce more in the early years, before 2019. So if you could just comment if you've seen any kind of pressure on their part. And maybe even Boeing too, because Boeing most likely will follow the higher production number in order not to lose share? Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: We've had all of our customers in, both engine level as well as airframe level for the narrowbodys as well as the regionals. Doing what they really we call rate readiness reviews and because of the, I'd say, very good planning we did and customers are very pleased. They are coming in and seeing our new facilities, seeing the capacity we put in. And we've been very able to show them that we can handle all their ramps and all the forecasts they've come up with, because that's what we've plan for. Now obviously as we go to the higher volumes we have to add some more machinery, but we're set to do it, so the reviews have gone very well and what I can say there, Jim, is we're not going to be the bottleneck. We can handle whatever they put at us.

James V. Foung - G.research LLC

Analyst

Okay. But you're not seeing them asking you for more output...? Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Nothing – we're not seeing any nothing different than they are publicly stating.

James V. Foung - G.research LLC

Analyst

Right. Okay. And then just kind of switching gears a bit to the defense business, could you just talk a little bit about what you're seeing there with the defense budget increasing and kind of potential upside you could see in 2016 with growth in that business? Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. We still look at defense as being stable to up. It's not going to be huge growth, but some of the things that we're seeing are good, a lot of activity in smart weapons, and we're also seeing if you want to say the maintenance side still continuing strong, and we are anticipating some of the new programs coming online from the Joint Strike Fighter to the new tanker to some of the new – other new programs that we have good content on. So, across the board, defense for us is going to be stable to upside.

James V. Foung - G.research LLC

Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you, Tom. Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yes. Thanks, Jim.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Steve Levenson from Stifel. Your line is now open. Please proceed with your question. Stephen E. Levenson - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Thanks. Good afternoon, everybody. Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Hi, Steve. Stephen E. Levenson - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Could you tell us a little bit about the mechanics of closing the joint venture with GE. What's left to do and how the money comes in, and how that relates to the buyback and your interest expense in 2016, fiscal 2016? Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. There is very, very little left to do. We have received regulatory approvals and so on, so there's not a lot other than that final sitting down and signing documents one last time. We will see at that time the $250 million related to the sale of future – one half of the future cash flows. There will be large tax bill that will go along with that and then we'll see the net of that next year in cash flow. Other than that, there's not a lot of change. Stephen E. Levenson - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Okay. Good enough. Thank you. And what's left to do on the construction both on Aerospace, I know you've completed the facilities, are you all moved in, everything already up and how's the schedule for Energy? Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: On the facilities, we have two Aerospace facilities. The one in Niles is fully up, operational, everything's moved in. All equipment's in place. On the one in the Rockford, we call the Rock Cut Campus, is supporting fuel systems, facility is complete. We are moving people…

Operator

Operator

And thank you. Our next question is a follow-up from the line of Gautam Khanna from Cowen & Company. Your line is now open. Gautam Khanna - Cowen & Co. LLC: Yes. Thanks for the follow-up. I was wondering if you could just expand on your comments about Q1. Are we implying something under $0.40 in earnings in Q1 and if you could talk about the sequential sales level, where are you going to see the greatest sequential decline, which segment? Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yes. One thing that I'd like to highlight, we're trying to help everybody – remind everybody that first quarter is a tough quarter. We don't want to get into – not going to get into quarterly guidance, but we will see lower sales in both segments in the first quarter relative to last year. And what we want everybody to do is recognize that and that there will be more of a traditional flow of sale, revenue and earnings as we had in past years. And it won't follow the – what happened in fiscal year 2015. So that's we're just cautioning so everybody can work their models to reflect that. Gautam Khanna - Cowen & Co. LLC: Can you comment a little bit on whether one segment will be down more sequentially than the other? Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Energy will be down more. And the reason for that, if you recall, first quarter last year we had not had the hit from Asia yet in there. We had stronger CNG sales and we were saying earlier, we're not really seeing a recovery in that, that's built into our outlook and built into sales guidance that we gave for the full year. So, first quarter would be tough around Energy. Gautam Khanna - Cowen & Co. LLC: Okay. Thank you. Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yes, you bet.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Mr. Gendron, there are no further question at this time. I would now turn the conference back to you. Thomas A. Gendron - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Okay. Well I appreciate everybody joining us today and thanks for your questions. I would also like to remind all of our investor friends that we do have our upcoming Analyst Investor Meeting in New York City on December 11 and hope all of you can join us where we'll be going into more detail on the year, on our business, on our growth outlook for the next five years. So, hope to see you all here in about a month and thanks again for joining us today.