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Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL)

Q2 2016 Earnings Call· Wed, Aug 3, 2016

$79.27

-0.18%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Xcel Energy's Second Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Paul Johnson, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Paul A. Johnson - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Good morning, and welcome to Xcel Energy's 2016 second quarter earnings release conference call. Joining me today are Ben Fowke, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; Bob Frenzel, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. In addition, we have other members of the management team in the room to answer your questions. This morning, we will review our 2016 second quarter results, reaffirm 2016 earnings guidance range and update you on recent business and regulatory developments. As a reminder, some of the comments during today's conference call may contain forward-looking information. Significant factors that could cause results to differ from those anticipated are described in our earnings release and our filings with the SEC. I'll now turn the call over to Ben. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, thank you, Paul, and good morning, everyone. Today, we reported GAAP and ongoing earnings of $0.39 per share for the quarter, flat with last year. Our year-to-date earnings are slightly ahead of last year, but a bit behind expectations, reflecting lower-than-expected sales and some unfavorable weather. However, we have taken action to reduce O&M expenses. And, as a result, we are confident in our ability to deliver ongoing earnings solidly within our 2016 guidance range of $2.12, $2.27 per share. And Bob will provide more detail on our financial results in a few minutes. While it's been a busy quarter, we've made significant progress in our regulatory initiatives. Let me start out by addressing some of the highlights. We're making progress in the Minnesota rate case and have participated in several mediation sessions. As a result, we have reached a settlement in principle with several of the parties, but the terms remain confidential until we reach a final agreement. The settlement is anticipated to address all…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We'll go first to Jonathan Arnold at Deutsche Bank.

Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Good morning, guys. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Hey, Jonathan.

Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Yes. So, just as we think about the cadence of the second half, you obviously, you were $0.01 ahead in the first quarter. You were flat in the second quarter. But you need, I think, $0.08 in H2 to get into the range and presumably more to get solidly in there. So, can you talk about whether you see that coming more in Q3, Q4 or just what the kind of likely drivers are? It sounds like O&Ms might be a piece of the puzzle here, but just how we got that? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, I think it's going to be pretty balanced through the second half, Jonathan. But to answer your question, as we mentioned in the call, we have top-line revenues coming from New Mexico and the Texas cases. We are seeing some favorable weather for a change. July was a good month. And you'll recall, last year, we continued to see unfavorable weather. And I'm very confident in our ability to manage our revenue streams and our cost initiatives. So, you put all that together and that should put us solidly in the middle.

Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Okay, great. Thank you. And then, just on the Minnesota settlement, you said several parties. Does that include the DOC, can you say? And is it – are we likely to see a three-year deal or something different? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. Jonathan, I'd just assume keep all the terms and the parties confidential at this point. We want to get the agreement finalized and quickly present it to the ALJ and then move forward from there. So, we'll be able to talk more freely about the terms probably in mid-August.

Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Okay, great. That's helpful, the timing. Thank you. And then, I just wanted to ask if I may – just one thing on the upside – the base and upside capital forecast. Yeah. I think the Colorado grid filing you made, it says in the release that that's largely in the base capital forecast, but then you still have that 12% of the upside CapEx is in grid modernization. So, if the Colorado piece is in the base, can you just speak to what's in the 12%? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. That would be making a similar proposal on Minnesota.

Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Great. Okay. I was guessing that, but I think that's it. Thank you, guys. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Jonathan. Robert C. Frenzel - Chief Financial Office & Executive Vice President: Thanks, Jonathan.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Ali Agha at SunTrust.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Management

Thank you. Good morning. Hey. Good morning. So, from your numbers, you've told us that at the OpCo level, the earned ROE LTM was 8.89%. Can you remind us what is the authorized weighted average ROE? In other words how much of a lag would there be when we look at these numbers? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: At the OpCo level?

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Management

Yes. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. Well, right now, our average ROE is somewhere around that upper 9s%, call it 9.8%, so that would be about 100-basis-point lag.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Management

Okay. Okay. And then also drilling into the changes here, so, you've lowered the overall electric sales roughly about 100 basis points from your original and that's $0.05, $0.06 of headwinds, if you will. So, did I hear you right that you've identified costs that will offset all of that or should we assume that the bulk of that will be offset by the cost? I wasn't clear on that. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, it's various drivers. Cost is a big piece, the additional revenue from Texas and New Mexico, and the fact that we are seeing some favorable weather. You put all that together and that's the offset.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Management

Yeah. But I would imagine Texas and New Mexico would be obviously factored into your original guidance. So, the weather and the cost would be incremental is the way to think about it? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Right. But if you take a look at the O&M and the changes we've made in those assumptions.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Management

Right. And then just to get a sense, also to clarify, when you said all key revenue requirements would be part of the settlement if it gets finalized. Obviously, does that include ROE as well? Just to be clear on that, Ben. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, yeah, ROE would be embedded in the revenue assumptions. Now, what needs to still be worked out, just for full disclosure, is some of the rate design elements, things that some jurisdictions you call phase 2, but in Minnesota are typically combined into one proceeding.

Ali Agha - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Management

I see. Okay. Great. Thank you. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Welcome.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Jerimiah Booream with UBS.

Jerimiah Booream - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Hey. Good morning. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Hi.

Jerimiah Booream - UBS Securities LLC

Management

I just wanted to touch upon the upside CapEx plan first. Obviously, you took out the nat gas versus last quarter on the upside plan, which I think was about $300 million. Looks like you replaced it with other. Can you provide any color around what the opportunities are there? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, I think the big opportunities are the continued opportunities we see in renewables in our backyard. And with the extension of the PTC and the ITC, we're actively looking at how we can take advantage of those tax incentives to do even more for our customers, so more to come on that. But it's always worth remembering that we have some of the finest wind resources right in our backyard and that's from Minnesota all the way down to Texas. So, continue to look for those opportunities. That's what we call, again, steel-for-fuel opportunities. And it works so well just like Rush Creek is working so well in Colorado because you basically are buying wind at a price point less than you can lock in natural gas reserves. So, that's a pretty compelling story for customers and, I think, investors alike.

Jerimiah Booream - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Yeah. And that kind of leads to my second question, so on that front in light of the IRS guidance that was given. Do you have any numbers around the potential opportunity maybe on a megawatt basis on maybe what might be rate baseable on the wind front? Or just how you might handle that going forward on repowering specifically? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: On repowering?

Jerimiah Booream - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Yeah. The repowering opportunity in light of the four-year construction guidance from the IRS? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. I mean, I think most of the focus is going to be on new wind. We certainly are going to be looking at repowering opportunities too. But, I think, they're a little more one-off than the opportunities just to add the incremental wind to the system.

Jerimiah Booream - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Okay. Thanks. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Next to Chris Turnure at JPMorgan.

Christopher J. Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Good morning, Ben and Bob. You talked in your prepared remarks about the Rush Creek staff recommendation being favorable and there being some amendments kind of suggested in there. Was there anything that kind of meaningfully deviated from your expectations in your request? And can you clarify what they said in regards to timing on that? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I wouldn't say anything was – again, it was supportive. But as I mentioned, the shortened depreciation life syncing up more closer to the transmission and service. If all of those recommendations were adopted by the Commission, I do think it would change some of the timing of the project, but that would be it.

Paul A. Johnson - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Chris, the timing that they suggested would just delay the project going into service from 2018 until late in 2019.

Christopher J. Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Until late 2019, okay.

Paul A. Johnson - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Correct.

Christopher J. Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

And how does this project fit into any potential incremental external equity that would be needed to be raised by you guys? Robert C. Frenzel - Chief Financial Office & Executive Vice President: Yeah. Hey, Chris. It's Bob. We've said since the onset of this project that we would not raise any incremental equity associated with this project.

Christopher J. Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

All right. And then, my only other question is on your load growth forecast kind of going into the year, it obviously is pretty weak year-to-date, and it's a little bit more on the commercial and industrial side. So, hopefully, the impact is not quite as proportionally bad as it would have been on the residential side. But kind of where did you go wrong in hindsight in your forecasting efforts? What was the main cause of that deviation? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I think I'll start and I'll ask Bob to chip in where he sees fit. I think we were looking for overall a stronger GDP number, okay. And then we were also looking for more robust commodity markets. And so, when the commodity markets, as you know, have been flat, steel has been very tough, particularly with some of the currency issues internationally, so that is impacting the larger C&I customers. To your earlier commentary, the margin associated with that is not nearly the same as it would be on the residential side. We do believe, however, though, there is some trickle-down impact that may be impacting the smaller C&I customers. So, we still have some load coming on, but there has been some projects that, talking to our customers, have not materialized as we originally expected. So, does that help?

Christopher J. Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Yes. That was helpful. Thank you. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Next to Scott Senchak at Cannon (21:23). Robert C. Frenzel - Chief Financial Office & Executive Vice President: Hey, Scott (21:26).

Unknown Speaker

Management

Hi, thanks. Hey. How are you? Just a question on some of the upside CapEx. If you start to execute on more of this stuff, how should we think about financing and what kind of metrics you want to be at? Would you need any equity if you hit all this stuff? Just any color on that. Robert C. Frenzel - Chief Financial Office & Executive Vice President: Yeah. Scott (21:43), it's Bob. Our expectation is if we executed on the upside capital case that we would unlikely need any equity in the program. We do watch our credit metrics closely. We've committed to keeping strong credit ratings at the operating company and the holding company, but we wouldn't expect to issue any equity in conjunction with the upside capital program.

Unknown Speaker

Management

Okay. Thanks. And then, I guess just – you talked a little bit about more wind in Minnesota. I'm just wondering how is the market up there? Is it able to handle more wind? Are we at a point where it's easy to add more wind? I know SPP has hit some kind of records on wind lately. And just kind of where are you in that marketplace? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, MISO is a big footprint and so, I mean, I certainly think from a reliability standpoint, from a grid standpoint, you can handle more wind, and there's going to be more wind, and it's pretty economically compelling right now. So, I'm not too worried about that. Scott (22:49), in Colorado, where we're not part of an RTO, we have experienced wind as high as I think 65% of our load in any particular time and we've managed to integrate it very well. And part of that is we've developed some of the most sophisticated wind forecasting software in the business and it's helping us be more efficient with wind. So, very little curtailments in our wind portfolio; we're pretty proud of that.

Unknown Speaker

Management

Okay. And so, that other bucket that's about 22%, I guess how should we think about if that is incremental renewables, is that something has to be done in a rate case? Or are these kind of one-off things? Or how should we think about timing of that as well? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I'm looking at the 22% – hang on a second. Are you talking about on the upside cases?

Unknown Speaker

Management

Yeah. Yeah. The upside case. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, listen. I mean, remember that we have riders to cover renewable in our big jurisdictions of Minnesota and Colorado.

Unknown Speaker

Management

Got you. So, it would still need to be approved before it was able to go in the rider? Or how would that work? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. Yeah. That's correct. You still got to get a Certificate of Public Need.

Unknown Speaker

Management

Got you. Okay. But the numbers, at this point, you guys see is pretty compelling. Okay. Thank you very much. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Next is Travis Miller of Morningstar.

Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc.

Research

Good morning. Thanks. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Hey, Travis.

Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc.

Research

If you look across your rate cases that are in process and any kind of other regulatory discussions you've had, what would you say are the one or two things, components that you're seeing the most pushback on? Is it ROE? Is it capital structures? Is it CapEx plans, O&M? What components are you seeing the most pushback on either from interveners or from regulators? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, it's not really O&M because we're not asking for a lot of O&Ms. So, it's going to be in the capital. It's usually very much aligned with our stakeholders. So, I would say, the biggest pushback is the fact that we're in a low interest rate environment now for a number of years and it is putting downward pressure on ROEs. And that's the challenge. The opportunity we have is, I think, we increasingly are sharpening our pencils and figuring out how to manage our revenue streams and keep cost consistent with where we see sales growth. So, you put all that together and, I think, we meet the challenge. And, I think, we're well positioned to meet the opportunities out there, which is finding that steel-for-fuel opportunities, finding things that are aligned, like our advanced grid initiative, with what our stakeholders want and balancing that with a really affordable proposition to our customers. And I think we've strike the right balance at the end of the day.

Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc.

Research

Okay. You'd answered my other question, so I appreciate it. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Next to John Barta at KeyBanc.

John J. Barta - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Management

Thanks. Good morning. I guess, just to take a step back on Rush Creek, I know it has to be reasonably priced and show an economic benefit, but what's the underlying driver behind the increased renewables. Is it (26:13) RPS or what exactly? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, it's continuing to decarbonize our fleet with affordability in mind. And in this case, what you're doing with Rush Creek is primarily displacing fossil fuels. And so, you're lowering your carbon footprint and you're doing it at a price point that is compelling. That's a pretty winning proposition in my book.

John J. Barta - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Management

Okay. And then, just on the Colorado IRP, do you have the long-term load growth assumption? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: The Colorado IRP?

Paul A. Johnson - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

John, I think, we'd have to give – why don't you give me a call and we can get back to you on that. (26:58).

John J. Barta - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Management

Okay. All right. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And next to Ben Budish at Jefferies.

Benjamin Budish - Jefferies LLC

Management

Hey, guys. I just had a similar question on the load growth forecast post 2016. Just curious what's built into the 4% to 6% growth and kind of what kind of sensitivity there is around any deviations in the load growth? Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, I think beyond 2016, we're looking at flat to marginal sales growth. Okay. So, that's the key question there. And embedded in the 4% to 6% is our ability to meet some of the challenges. We talked a little bit about some of the impact of ROEs that have fallen across the nation. Our ability to meet that with prudent cost control and then, capturing the great opportunities, again, that are right in our backyard, the steel-for-fuel opportunities, the de-carbonization at an affordable price point. Those are all the things that I would say that are embedded in those growth assumption.

Benjamin Budish - Jefferies LLC

Management

Okay. And then just one more question. I think earlier in the call, you mentioned O&M was expected to be in line at the end of the year. Did you mean in line with the guidance of 0% to 2% or in line as in flat versus 2015? Robert C. Frenzel - Chief Financial Office & Executive Vice President: Sorry, the latter.

Benjamin Budish - Jefferies LLC

Management

Okay. Robert C. Frenzel - Chief Financial Office & Executive Vice President: In line versus 2015.

Benjamin Budish - Jefferies LLC

Management

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And that concludes today's question-and-answer session. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference back to Bob Frenzel, Chief Financial Officer, for any additional or closing remarks. Robert C. Frenzel - Chief Financial Office & Executive Vice President: Thanks, everyone, for your attention and time today. We look forward to seeing you next quarter. If you have any questions, please follow up with Paul. Benjamin G. S. Fowke - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, everyone. Have a good day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. We do thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.