Earnings Labs

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

Q3 2018 Earnings Call· Fri, Nov 2, 2018

$150.56

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-0.38%

1 Week

-1.32%

1 Month

-4.34%

vs S&P

-3.59%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, everyone. Welcome to this Exxon Mobil Corporation Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to the Vice President of Investor Relations and Secretary, Mr. Neil Hansen. Please go ahead, sir.

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

Thank you. Morning, everyone. Welcome to our third quarter earnings call. We appreciate your participation and continued interest in ExxonMobil. This is Neil Hansen, Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me on the call today is Jack Williams. Jack is a Senior Vice President with responsibility for the Downstream and Chemical business lines. As we'll discuss on the call today, we are very pleased with our performance in the third quarter. It was a quarter highlighted by strong operating performance, significant growth in liquids production, and considerable value from our integrated business model. As a result, we delivered the highest level of cash flow from operating activities since 2014. In addition, we completed several advantaged projects and made significant progress on investments that will generate long-term accretive value for our shareholders. After I review the quarterly financial and operating performance, Jack will provide his perspectives on third quarter results and give an update on several key investments and strategic focus areas. Jack and I will be happy to take your questions following our prepared remarks. Our comments this morning will reference the slides available on the Investors section of our website. I would also like to draw your attention to the cautionary statement on slide 2 and the supplemental information at the end of the presentation. I'll move now to slide 3, which summarizes a number of developments that influenced our third quarter performance. As I mentioned previously, cash flow from operating activities was the highest it's been in four years, dating back to the third quarter of 2014. Corporate charges for the quarter were outside the $700 million to $900 million range that we typically experience. This was due to net favorable absolute one-time items of $420 million, primarily related to tax. Now it's important to note that we…

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Well, thank you, Neil. I'm glad to be here today. And I'd like to thank all the folks on the line today for their interest in ExxonMobil. Let me make a couple of comments about the quarter. And then I'll go into some more updates on the strategic progress. We're very pleased with the business progress that's reflected in the third quarter results. First, if you look at the Upstream, if you ex entitlements and divestments, the net positive volumes growth versus both sequential and year-ago quarters really bodes well, as it reflects the contribution from just one of the five key growth areas that we talked about back in March, and that's of course the Permian. I'd also add that the Hebron ramp-up contributed significantly as well, and it's also going very well. In the Downstream, as Neil mentioned and quantified earlier, we're seeing the benefits of this integration across the value chain. And we're capturing value from low-cost crude feedstock that we purchased in Midland and Edmonton for our Gulf Coast and Midwest refineries. And that's enabled by the strong logistics position that we have. And of course, in both the Upstream and the Downstream, we're very pleased with the improved reliability. This level of performance is much more in line with our ongoing expectations and has continued into October as well. Now the Downstream did benefit from seasonally lower refinery turnaround activity. And in the fourth quarter you should see scheduled maintenance activity more in line with second quarter levels. In the Chemicals business, we are seeing some near-term impacts of recent industry supply growth, including our own, which does not change our view of the long-term attractiveness of this business. The fundamentals continue to remain strong. Our growth plans remain on track. And that's evidenced by…

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

Great. Thank you for the comments, Jack, and I do appreciate you letting me go on that Permian trip. It was wonderful.

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

No problem. No problem.

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

All right. We'll now be more than happy to take any questions that you have.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, Mr. Williams and Mr. Hansen. The question-and-answer session will be conducted electronically. We request that you limit your questions to one initial with one follow up, so that we may take as many questions as possible. And we'll pause for just a moment to provide everyone the chance to signal. We will first go to the line of Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Neil Mehta - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC: Good morning, guys, and congrats on a good quarter here.

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

And good morning, Neil. Thank you.

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Morning. Neil Mehta - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC: So, Jack and Neil, maybe you could start off by just talking about the LNG cadence of projects. You've got so many different options out there, whether that is Mozambique, Golden Pass, the potential upside of PNG, Qatar. And I think we as an investor community are wondering what are the priorities in terms of most likely to sanction? When? And how should we think about the cadence of that growth? So if you'd just frame out how you're thinking about it and where you stand with some of the key projects, that would be helpful.

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Thank, Neil. Let me start off, Neil, and you can chime in if you like.

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

Yeah.

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

We are very happy with the portfolio of opportunities we have in the LNG market. At Papua New Guinea, we're building on success there with the foundation project that's continuing to achieve performance above expectations. Mozambique, a big new area for us, large resource base. We think we're bringing some real unique expertise that we have from both PNG and in Qatar to bring to bear on that resource. And then of course here in the U.S., continuing to look at Golden Pass with QP. And obviously, very interested in any expansions in the North Field as well. So I would say that given the low cost of supply of all these opportunities, they're all attractive. We see a growing LNG demand that would certainly allow all those projects to go forward. Naturally, the Mozambique is a little bit behind PNG in terms of the onshore trains, the offshore coil may make it a little quicker. But – and obviously in Qatar, with the new trains, we would like to pursue that as soon as possible. But that may be a little bit longer term as well. So in terms of the cadence, what I'd tell you is that there's other parties involved in all of those. We find them all attractive. We're wanting to pursue them all in our typical capital efficient deliberate way. But very proud of where we are and the opportunities we have in front of us. And we're excited about pursuing all of them, Neil. Neil Mehta - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC: That's great. The follow up I had is we've seen some increase in unconventional M&A. One of your peers doing a deal in the lower 48. And then some of the independents as well here over the course of the last week. Just wanted your latest thoughts on pursuing growth in the lower 48, whether to do it organically? Or to do it through transactions? And just what the bid/ask looks like in the market, especially with some of the shale players having a pullback here decently over the last couple months?

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Yeah, yeah, thanks, Neil. You mentioned it earlier in your question. Let me just reinforce that, from an organic standpoint, we have a very exciting growth plan. We talked about that earlier. A lot of running room. We had that big acquisition, northern Delaware Basin, that we're now estimating over 5 billion barrels, 9 billion total in the basin. So a lot to go after there. Having said that, we do maintain the financial strength to be able to capitalize on any environment we find ourselves in that might present an attractive opportunity. And we continue to scan the market for all opportunities that play to our strengths. We think certainly unconventional does that. So we're continuing to look. I would say that as we think about those kinds of opportunities, we're certainly thinking about where we can really bring our development strengths. So something that would have a large undeveloped aspect to it. But we do like our organic growth plan. We feel like that's going to give us a lot – many years of substantial growth. And as you may have noticed, our rig counts is increased in the Permian and the vector is up there. And so we got a lot to – a lot on our plate right now, but we continue to look. Neil Mehta - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC: Thanks, Jack. Thanks, Neil.

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

Thank you, Neil.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Sam Margolin with Wolfe Research.

Sam Margolin - Wolfe Research LLC

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

Hey. Good morning. Thanks for calling on me.

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

Good morning, Sam.

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Yeah.

Sam Margolin - Wolfe Research LLC

Analyst

I guess my first question, I'm going to relay a question that I've been encountering in the investment community. And maybe you can have a better answer than I've been able to come up with. But one of the fears that gets brought up occasionally is that fiscal terms internationally are sort of tightening. Renewals are challenging, especially with momentum in commodity prices. And people are afraid there's a lot of contracts that are scattered around the world that are sort of at risk. And that renewals aren't going to be as attractive. Can you talk about how your unconventional business – if that's true, first of all? If it's not, you can just refute it. But if your unconventional business kind of functions as an offset to that, you can simply rotate capital into the U.S. where you're seeing those international headwinds? And whether there's sort of a limit to that strategy? And just generally, if there's a strategic function to the U.S. unconventional business, besides just kind of short cycle volume growth at a high margin?

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Okay. Sam, let me start with that and Neil may want to chime in. But on the last part of the question first, around the unconventional. I mean we do see it more than just kind of short cycle place to go invest. We do view that whole unconventional strategically, and it really plays to our strength with the large unconventional organization that we have. So I would certainly characterize the U.S. unconventional as strategic and as a strength of our corporation. Now getting back to the earlier part of your question around PSC extensions and terms and so forth. What I would say is that by the time PSC extensions come up, we typically had 20, 25, 30 years of operations. And we would hope – certainly our expectation, we would hope that the resource owner recognizes the strengths that we bring at that point in time. And that we are able to progress and extend, to the extent the resources are required, extend those terms, obviously with a fulsome negotiation. So I wouldn't want to pre talk about where those things are going to go and when. But I would think – we typically start out with a position, start out from a position of strength in terms of what we've delivered in terms of the value to the resource. And that certainly comes into play in terms of those types of decisions. The other thing I'd like to point out is in terms of this overall comment you made around fiscal starting to tighten and so forth, is when we talked about these five growth areas that we talked about back in March, think about when those were acquired and brought into our portfolio and the environment at the time. So we basically brought all those in kind of at the bottom of the cycle, where we had some – where the environment was reasonable in terms of getting reasonable terms and so forth. And all of those were tested hard at bottom-of-cycle conditions. So to the extent that you think things are tightening now, it makes those resources and those projects all the more attractive. Neil, anything to add?

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

Yeah, the only other thing, and maybe just to reiterate some of those points, Jack, we have a long history of execution. We have a good relationship with the resource owners. We tend to be a partner of choice. The diverse portfolio that Jack mentioned does give us that flexibility, Permian certainly being an example of that. The only other thing I'd say is we've successfully renegotiated multiple extensions across our portfolio in the past. So I don't think there's any near-term pending concerns on fiscals. I think we continue to focus on making sure we deliver what we say we're going to deliver, that we establish those good relationships. And that certainly mitigates any of the risk you might have from deteriorating fiscals.

Sam Margolin - Wolfe Research LLC

Analyst

Well, thanks for all that color. And my follow up is quicker, just on this theme of integration. There's obviously a lot of focus on crude takeaway from the Permian and maybe from Western Canada too. But frac has been very tight in the Gulf Coast. And you sort of highlighted it with your Chemicals summary of the period. But just how you think about the full suite of integration, besides just takeaway and refining. But maybe some of those intermediate stages too, if you have investment plans for that.

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Well, I can make a comment there. On the broader question of the takeaway capacities and these disconnects, the nice thing about being across the value chain is it doesn't really matter whether those disconnects are there or not in terms of the value we accrue to the corporation. We'll – for instance in the Permian, we'll either accrue that value with higher crude price at the wellhead, or we'll accrue that value through our midstream and Downstream. But we'll get that full value of those molecules going all the way through the value chain to the customer. And really I think the same thing is true in Western Canada. Now on the ethane issue and the NGL fractionation capacity. What I'd tell you on that is that that's a transitory issue. And there's more NGL fractionation capacity being built, constructed right now. We certainly see that going away. We see plenty of ethane supply out there. And quite frankly, a lot of it's getting rejected into the methane stream right now. So that's going to get resolved. And I think it's going to get resolved in a matter of over the span of 2019. But I'd say that's more a transitory sort of issue. Neil?

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

Yeah, I'll just reiterate. Long term fundamentals for the Chemical business remain very strong. We look at demand over time still growing at 1% above GDP. You'll see times where you'll see cyclical pressures. We don't try to attempt to time the – when we bring these investments online, we make these investments based on those long term fundamentals.

Sam Margolin - Wolfe Research LLC

Analyst

Thanks so much.

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Phil Gresh with JPMorgan.

Philip M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan.

Hey. Good morning. First area I wanted to just hit was on the Chemicals business, Jack. If we, I know there were some headwinds there from maintenance in the third quarter. But we have seen some pressure for much of the year on the earnings profile in the business. And it's a big area of investment for you guys. So maybe you could just elaborate a bit more on your thoughts here? And just in terms of the margin outlook for the various businesses?

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Sure. Neil just mentioned, we do see a longer term growing demand, the fundamentals of the business still look good. The issues have kind of shifted a bit. In the early part of the year, we had depressed aromatics margins. And those look much better now. And now with the U.S. ethane feedstock increases, it hurts the ethylene and polyethylene margins. So there's a few kind of near term things going on. But it doesn't change the fundamental analysis for those supporting those big investments. We still see a growing market. We think our investments are all advantaged in terms of cost of supply. We have these performance products that are unique to us that also enhance our projects as we bring them online. So as we look at the fundamentals, we really still like that business a lot and like the investments that we have made and are making.

Philip M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Second question, just a quick numeric one would be, you had mentioned the two asset sales in Downstream and the earnings impact that you expect to see. What is the lost earnings impact from both of those assets on a go-forward basis? Because that's – you guys have a lot of asset sales. And I think that's the harder part for us to figure out sometimes.

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

Boy, I'm not sure what the lost value is going forward. Obviously, when we look at divesting assets, we do that when someone else sees more value for the asset than we do. And so again the assumption is when we sell these divestments, we're getting more value out of them than we would if we were to keep them. But I don't have a specific number on those two individual assets on what we're giving up. But I can assure you that what we're getting today is worth more than what we would get if we were to keep them.

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Yeah, I would agree on that. Yeah.

Philip M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. If I could just ask one last one then.

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

Sure.

Philip M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

On the cash flows, you had a headwind from deferred taxes. And I think in the first quarter, you had a big headwind from affiliates that you had expected to reverse at some point. Maybe you could just elaborate a little bit on where we would stand on that. Thanks.

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

Yeah, you're right. In the quarter, we did see an adjustment for the non-cash impacts from those favorable one-time tax items that I mentioned. If you look full year, we will always see some timing on equity companies in terms of earnings and when the dividends come in. It's tough to predict when that will happen. I think we mentioned in the first quarter that that was the case. And we have seen dividends come in from equity companies. I think another important thing to consider is these equity companies also may prioritize accretive investments over dividends. And so I think one of the things you're seeing and probably the biggest impact on a year-to-date basis is TCO. So TCO is the equity company that holds our Tengiz investment. And so obviously, they're prioritizing dividends over investing in that project. So tough to predict exactly when the dividends come in. There will always be some timing impacts. But again, we've seen some cash come in. But we're certainly supportive of those companies continuing with investments that will provide value to the shareholders.

Philip M. Gresh - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

Good. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And next we'll go to Doug Leggate with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Well, hi. Good morning, everybody.

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

Hey, Doug.

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Morning.

Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Jack and Neil, I wonder if I could pick up, Jack, on one of your comments about fast-tracking Liza 1. I think originally – actually just a broader question on Guyana generally. Hammerhead, my understanding from your partners, could potentially also be fast-tracked in addition to Liza 1. So I'm wondering if you can address where you see the guidance that you laid out for Guyana at your strategy update, versus to what appears to have been fairly rapid progress in the last six months.

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Yeah, on Hammerhead, the rig just moved off there. We did some – in addition to drilling the well, we did some dynamic flow testing and so forth. So a little bit too early to provide any EUR estimates on that one. So I think that leaves us at this estimate that's out there right now of over 4 billion oil-equivalent barrels, up to 5 FPSOs, peaking at 750,000 barrels a day, with Liza 1 targeting early 2020 and Liza 2 coming in behind that. We're talking to the government right now about our development plan and environmental permit. Hope to start that one up in 2022 or behind that. So we're continuing to tick on along. But when you look at the time between discovery and this projection of the Liza 1 start-up, it's very impressive in terms of what the industry timelines typically look like.

Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Sorry, Jack. Just to be clear. You did say fast-track, so has the March 2020 date changed for Liza 1?

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

No, and I don't think we ever said March. We just said early 2020. (54:52)

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Doug, when you go from five years from discovery to online, I view that as fast track. I mean that is very fast movement. That's about as good as it gets in industry. So that was why I took on fast track.

Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

My follow up, guys, if I may is also – I'm afraid, Jack, it's also an Upstream question. Just going to the Permian, the 38 rigs, Q1 – or Q2 sorry, you gave us the completion cadence. You said you brought 50 wells online in Q2. Can you tell me what the – how that completion cadence looked in Q3? And what the – whether you've caught up now with your rig activity? Because obviously, it was still pretty light on the important completion pace. And I'll leave it there. Thank you.

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Yeah, and no need to apologize. I don't mind talking Upstream, and I don't mind talking Permian at all. I, in fact, enjoy talking Permian. Yeah, on the – let me answer your question directly, and then I'll expand it a bit. We brought on 58 wells in the Midland Basin, and only eight in the Delaware Basin in the third quarter. And you'll notice the rigs are about equal between the two basins. And what you're seeing is that in the Midland Basin, there's a lot more infrastructure. We had the rigs there longer. And so the timing just worked out to where we have a lot more wells coming online there than the Delaware Basin. Over time, some of that's going to switch over – some of that growth is going to switch over to the Delaware Basin, but it's just less mature. I think it points out the issue that I think that Neil Chapman said a couple times and I've said it as well. It's going to be fairly lumpy coming on. I mean we are basically doing three things. Our teams out in the Permian are doing three things simultaneously. First, we're delineating this big new acreage position we have, and like I said, that everybody says, that looks very promising. There is further upward vector on that resource. We already increased it from 3 billion to 5 billion barrels. And there's further upward tailwinds on that. We're building out infrastructure in the Delaware Basin. We're spending a lot of time and energy on this infrastructure build-out. There's about 200,000 barrels a day of well pad facilities under construction right now, in addition to two major central processing facilities. So – but we had essentially a blank canvas on this 225,000 acres. There was not a lot of facilities out there. So we're building all that from scratch. Which in some respect is an advantage for us, because it allows us to bring other parts of our corporation, this major project expertise, to bear on this. And we're going to wind up with an infrastructure there that's really unlike anything else in the Delaware Basin or in the Midland Basin for that matter or any other unconventional development that I've ever seen. It's going to be very capital efficient and allow us long term to have a very competitively advantaged operation. So – but in addition to those two things, we're also growing production. So they're also having some of the rigs dedicated to just developing where we know we have mature benches. And we feel like we know it pretty well, and we're just growing production. But there's all those things going on at once. So it's going to be pretty lumpy. We draw a nice smooth line, but it's going to be pretty lumpy as we go up there but – as evidenced by this quarter. And...

Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Jack, may I ask for a point of clarification real quick. I know I've got to jump off here. But Neil did promise a little bit more of a look-forward on some of your commentary. If you're 50 [wells] in Q2, 58 in Q3, can you give some idea as to what that's going to look like in Q4 in your current plan?

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

No, I can't. I really don't know. I mean I can just tell you the rig activity we have out there – now I will say one thing. A lot of those rigs have been picked up in the last three, four, five months. And when you think about these multi-well pads that you drill four, five, six wells at a time and then have to come back and frac all those wells, all the facilities considerations and so forth, it's seven, eight, nine months between picking up a rig and having production online. So it's coming. The activity is there. We're liking what we see. But I can't give you a number for fourth quarter.

Doug Leggate - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Appreciate the answers, guys. Thank you.

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

Thanks, Doug.

Operator

Operator

And next we'll go to Thomas Kline with the Royal Bank of Canada.

Thomas Klein - RBC Dominion Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you for taking my question. With a good quarter and strong cash generation, I'm just wondering what else you guys would need to see, quantity, price or in terms of the environment, to prompt share buybacks? And especially in light of recent rhetoric on this from peers. Thank you.

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

Great. Thank you, Thomas. Yeah, we did have really what was an excellent quarter from a cash generation perspective. We're very pleased with it. I think nothing's changed for us in terms of our capital allocation strategy. And we're in a very fortunate position to have a really impressive portfolio of attractive accretive projects. And we're going to prioritize investing in those. I think we talked about how the fact that in the Upstream, they're going to generate a 20% return and a 15% to 20% return in Downstream and Chemical. So that's certainly a priority. We want to continue to pay a reliable, growing dividend. I think we've paid a growing dividend for 36 years now. And we recognize that those two things are tied together. We need to continue to invest in accretive projects, so we can continue to pay a reliable, growing dividend. Now beyond that – and you've seen a little bit of it this year – we want to ensure that we have the financial capability, the financial strength that we need to take advantage of investment opportunities, regardless of the price cycle. To the extent we can meet that, those objectives, and there's excess cash, we will certainly distribute cash back to shareholders. It's an important part of our capital allocation strategy. I think we've distributed more than $220 billion since the Exxon and Mobil merger, so it's certainly a key factor in that. And I think if you look at it maybe bigger picture, what we're trying to do is we're trying to position the company for long term sustainable distribution to our shareholders. I mean that's the objective. And we think the best way to do that is to ensure that we are taking advantage of, again, a portfolio of opportunities that's probably as attractive if not more attractive than anything we've seen since the Exxon and Mobil merger. So we're not going to prioritize buybacks over doing that, because what we're really focused on is long term sustainable distributions. Anything to add to that?

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

I would just say that the shareholder accretion from this investment program we have is – we think is going to be very impressive. So I'd just echo that point. That we have a very exciting investment portfolio in front of us.

Thomas Klein - RBC Dominion Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Understood. Thanks you. Thank you.

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

Hey, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Okay. Your next question comes from the line of Jason Gammel with Jefferies.

Jason Gammel - Jefferies International Ltd.

Analyst · Jefferies.

Thank you very much, gentlemen. I appreciate the conversation around the coker at Antwerp. I was hoping you might be able to make similar comments about the Rotterdam hydrocracker. First of all, just the size of the unit. And whether you would actually be also processing your European system and potential third-party VGO through that unit? And finally, whether you have the hydrotreating capacity there to be able to handle third-party high sulfur VGO?

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Let's see. I think it's primarily handling the feeds from our refinery there in Rotterdam. But let me just kind of give you a sense. Again, this is advanced technology, advanced hydrocracker from the proprietary technology. And we think we're going to generate not only about 20 kbd of high-quality Group II lubes but also some clean products as well. And due to what we already had on the ground in Rotterdam, and this shift to a kind of a real lubes-based stocks generating machine, this is going to have substantial impact on the Rotterdam refinery profitability. Now we talked about, and Neil talked about, some weakness in near term in the base stocks market. And clearly, that's coming because we're adding a bunch of Group II capacity, which long term is going to be very advantaged. So don't know what we're going to be looking at when we first come on in early 2019. But it's fundamentally a very advantaged investment, one of the best returns we have. It doubles the earnings from Rotterdam. And I think again, I think it's primarily focused on – I think most of the feeds into this unit are at the refinery today.

Jason Gammel - Jefferies International Ltd.

Analyst

Okay. Thank you for that. And I was just hoping that you might be able to give us where you're at in the process for that second group of three expansion projects in the Downstream. Have they all reached FID? Are they in construction? Just where are they at in the process?

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Yeah, we're looking to FID Beaumont probably first quarter of next year. The Fawley unit is going to be about the same timing as Beaumont, probably more like midyear, working for an FID on that one. Singapore is a little bit behind that. We're looking more like a 2023 or so start-up on Singapore. It's a bigger project. It's a very, very large project in Singapore. Very fundamental – fundamentally shift the whole Singapore, when you take 75 kbd of resids and turn that into a lot of lubes and clean products, that's a very, very large project. That one is a little bit later. But Beaumont, we've been looking at all opportunities to accelerate that and try to get that on as soon as possible, because we see that one as extremely attractive.

Jason Gammel - Jefferies International Ltd.

Analyst

Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Paul Cheng with Barclays.

Paul Y. Cheng - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays.

Hey, guys. Good morning.

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

Morning, Paul.

Paul Y. Cheng - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays.

Jack, just on the Beaumont cool unit, 200,000 barrels per day. Can you share a little bit more detail in terms of how the – you're talking about that replacing maybe 100,000 barrels per day of the feed. So how's the output is going to look like at the end? How that is going to change? And what kind of CapEx we may be talking about? And when that is supposed to come on stream?

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Yeah, we're looking at 2022, maybe perhaps 2021. Still looking at that pretty hard in terms of when it's going to come on stream. What we're looking at doing is a new atmospheric pipe still. 250,000 barrels a day coming in. We'll take the middle of that tower, hydro treat it there on-site, and get some diesel fuels coming out of Beaumont. So Beaumont will net increase diesel coming out of the refinery. And then the bottom and the top of the tower are going to be intermediate products to Baytown and to Baton Rouge, again replacing products that they're buying today. So not a lot of net increase in new product coming out of those, just lower cost. And again, given the advantage, 30% less than industry cost, because of all of these advantages, the utilizing existing infrastructure I talked about, and well in excess of a 20% return project.

Paul Y. Cheng - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Jack, should we assume that the diesel or distillate increase in Beaumont is somewhere in the 30,000 to 50,000 barrel per day, based on what you described?

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Probably higher.

Paul Y. Cheng - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Higher than that?

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Yeah, yeah, probably more like 60,000.

Paul Y. Cheng - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

60,000? Okay.

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

I mean, ballpark. I don't have the number in front of me, but something like that.

Paul Y. Cheng - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

And where – sure. Would that be all in ULSD, or that would it be a combination?

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

It'll all be ultra-low sulfur diesel that'll be coming out, clearly, and yeah.

Paul Y. Cheng - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

I see. And that in terms of the other, say, debottleneck opportunity, 150,000 barrel per day expansion, what kind of timeline we may be talking about?

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Which project is that?

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

Paul, I assume you're talking about the debottlenecks at the other facilities.

Paul Y. Cheng - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

That's correct. Sorry.

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

So Baytown, Baton Rouge. Yeah.

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Yeah, it was not 150,000, Paul, it was just 50,000.

Paul Y. Cheng - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Oh, it is 50,000.

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

So we have 450,000 capacity today; Beaumont would be another 250,000; another 50,000 on top of that; and then over 750,000 total. And I'm rounding the numbers here, but over 750,000 barrels a day after Beaumont and these other attractive debottleneck projects.

Paul Y. Cheng - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. A final short one. Neil, I think earlier that you say that you will be on track to the $24 billion CapEx if we exclude the $1 billion you spent in Brazil recently. So is that means that we're going to be roughly, say, $25 billion for the year?

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

Yeah, Paul, our – and as again, subject to what happens in the fourth quarter. But our current outlook is – for the full year is $25 billion. What we've seen though throughout the year, fortunately, is some incremental opportunities to acquire additional acreage in Brazil. And that's roughly about $1 billion above what we thought we were going to get. And so that's where you get to the $25 billion. Again, that's heavily dependent on what happens in the fourth quarter.

Paul Y. Cheng - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Sure. Thank you.

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

You're welcome, Paul. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next we'll go to Alastair Syme with Citi.

Alastair R. Syme - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.

Analyst

Thanks for taking my questions. In the Analyst Day, Jack, you put out earnings expectation shots on both the Downstream and Chemicals. And I know they were the long term, but there were also numbers for 2018 and 2019. And I'm just sort of aware your run rating well behind these, both for 2018 and sort of the expected 2019 performance in both Downstream and Chemicals. Can you sort of help us with how much of this is macro and how much of this is unplanned downtime?

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Yeah, Al, so let me just say this. The market environment is very different than what we had. We assumed 2017 flat conditions. And in the Chemicals business very different. Well, actually Chemicals and Downstream both very different margin environment. But the underlying activity that we talked about on those projections is on track. That's why I was saying these milestones of these projects starting up. So the underlying activity that's driving these earnings results that we're – these earnings projections, earnings potential projections that we talked about in March are all there. As a matter of fact again, I think we're seeing a bit of upside. So don't know in terms of – can't give you any definite numbers in terms of earnings themselves, but I can tell you the activity is going well.

Alastair R. Syme - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.

Analyst

So you would see it more as a macro then?

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Yeah.

Alastair R. Syme - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.

Analyst

And on my follow-up, can you just talk around IMO? In particular, if you see scope for an emergence of compliant blends, particularly in the Asian region?

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

I don't know if I can answer that question specifically. But I can just tell you that we're supportive of the timing. We think that the industry will be able to adapt. We think it's the right thing to do in terms of going from 3.5% sulfur down to 0.5%. And we're going to be ready. And we're going to be ready with a bunch of different options. So as I mentioned, we'll still have HSFO, we'll have a low sulfur fuel as well, we'll have a marine gas oil, and we'll have LNG. To the extent that some ships convert to LNG, we'll have that as well. And then also we have a lot of coking capacity that will be churning out some – destroying that distillate and churning – destroying that resid and churning out some high-quality distillate. So I think we're going to be ready. And we're looking forward to that environment. So I can't really tell you anything specific about what others are doing or what the markets are doing. Going to be hard to see how that – what the impacts are going to be on that overall. Obviously, the clean/dirty spread is going to grow. And we don't know how much and don't know for how long. So I think the industry is going to deal with it just fine.

Alastair R. Syme - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next we'll go to Roger Read with Wells Fargo.

Roger D. Read - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Yeah, thank you. Good morning.

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

Hey, Roger.

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Morning.

Roger D. Read - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

I guess the question earlier was asked about buying things or whatever. And you detailed in the fourth quarter some of the asset sales coming through on the Downstream side. I was wondering, in a market where oil prices have recovered, you clearly are focused on the investment side, but everything has to compete for capital. Do you see any acceleration potential in dispositions over the next couple of years? And particularly as the Upstream starts to transition with a greater component from the lower 48, if that makes it an easier decision to move forward on asset sales?

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Yeah, let me just – we kind of hinted at this and talked about it a little bit back in March and certainly in dialogue. I think we've all been having – we've been saying that we are going to be more active in terms of looking at our Upstream assets. And as we bring on – as you mentioned, as we bring on all these high-quality assets and invest in these new accretive volumes clearly we need to be looking at the other end of the portfolio and seeing what might be worth more to somebody else than it is to us, given where our portfolio is heading. So we are already more active and we'll continue to be more active in that area. What I can't give you is any specifics right now in terms of the timing, in terms of how those transactions, when those transactions may happen. Obviously, we need to have an active buyer as well as a seller. But we have had some – and if you think about what we've announced year to date with the Norway divestment that was last year and then Scarborough and the Rockies gas, that we have been active. And that activity is going to continue to ramp up.

Roger D. Read - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Thanks for that, Jack, and I appreciate the greater disclosure Exxon is giving. But I didn't really expect you to give me a list of projects that you were going to be unloading here. As a follow-up – oh, sorry. Just as a quick follow-up, the question about share repos was asked. But I was wondering since you mentioned debt had declined to $40 billion, lowest since 2015, I was just curious. Is there a debt goal, debt-to-cap, net debt, total debt number, recapturing the top credit rating? Any of that kind of drivers that we should think about in terms of where debt goes down the road?

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

Yeah. This is Neil, Roger. I'll take that one. We don't target a specific credit rating. We don't target a specific debt level. Again, I think the aim or the goal is to ensure that we maintain financial strength, financial capacity, so that we can act countercyclically. We can take advantage of investment opportunities regardless of the price cycle. But aiming or putting a specific target out there, we don't typically do that. But again, we already have a very – as you know, we have industry leading strength on the balance sheet. And then we want to maintain that, so we can take advantage of opportunities, but we don't target any specific debt level or credit rating.

Roger D. Read - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

And we view it as a competitive advantage, Roger. I mean you can imagine it gives us a lot of capacity to use that balance sheet when we see accretive opportunities.

Roger D. Read - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

All right. Thanks.

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

Yeah, thank you, Roger.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Rob West with Redburn. Rob West - Redburn (Europe) Ltd.: Oh, hi. Thank you for taking my question. I'd like to ask the first one about the comments you made earlier around your Downstream investments. And the question is, are you surprised how little some of your peers are investing in new either capacity or complexity at their refining base? And could you just make some comments about why you think that might be, if it is a trend that you are seeing?

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Yeah, I would just say, mildly, yes, surprised. But I don't really know why. I mean I think that's something you'd have to ask them. One thing I would like to say though, is as we think about refining investments, we're really not interested in kind of plain vanilla industry standard refining at an industry standard unit, that conversion capacity, that kind of thing. We're bringing proprietary technology and/or footprint advantages on all those projects we had. So they are all well in excess of what others might see on their potential refining investments. And I think that probably differentiates us. In addition to that, you look at some of the differentiated products we have coming out as well. So I think that may be a reason why. Rob West - Redburn (Europe) Ltd.: Okay. Thank you. Just second one would be on digital. And really the question is, what is your number one highlight in the digital space in the last 12 months? And the context for asking is, I've seen one of your peers talk about having 20 million data points a day at a new Gulf of Mexico platform. And I've seen one of your other peers just signed a big new agreement with a machine-learning company. Is there something that you'd point to in that space? Or would you say it's less active than peers there?

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Well, let me – Neil might want to weigh in on this one too, but let me just make a comment. I can assure you we are very active in this space. We have had a lot of discussions at the management committee level around all the things we're doing in digital. We are not rushing out to do a me-too type project in digital. But we are putting in the underlying infrastructure to give us advanced analytic capabilities. We are doing things like pervasive Wi-Fi in our facilities to where we can make our operators much more productive. We have real-time data feeding in from all our major pieces of equipment that's improving reliability. So we are – we don't – you're right. We haven't talked about it as much as some of our competitors, but we are very active in the space. All aspects of our business have big digital organizations in them, looking at all that opportunity. And that's coordinated with a central IT organization that's looking at the overall strategy. So very active, and we are seeing some bottom-line benefits for sure.

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

And maybe one example I can give. You look at what we're doing on the subsurface. And you can imagine over time how much seismic data we've collected as a company. And so one of the areas we're looking at is digitizing that. And again, with the idea of using artificial intelligence and big data to help us continue to look for resources. That's one specific example. But again, I think it's happening across the business. Rob West - Redburn (Europe) Ltd.: Thank you. Thank you for those perspectives.

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

Good. Thank you, Rob. I think we have time for one more question.

Operator

Operator

Okay. We'll take our last question from Jason Gabelman with Cowen. Jason Gabelman - Cowen & Co. LLC: Hey, guys, and thanks for squeezing me in at the end of the call.

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

Yeah, good morning, Jason. Jason Gabelman - Cowen & Co. LLC: Firstly, just on – yeah, morning. Just on the Brazil acreage footprint expanding here. Can you first remind us, of that $1 billion, how much has been spent year to date? And secondly on that, there haven't really been many updates on the Carcara development. Can you give us any updates that you have? Or how you're thinking about this project coming along, given not much coming from you or your partners in that project?

Jack P. Williams - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Operator

Yeah. Let me handle the last part of the question, and maybe Neil could chime in on the numerics on the investments this year. On Carcara, we're working with Equinor on that, as they're operating that development. And again, we see that as a recoverable resource of more than 2 billion barrels of high-quality oil. We've had another on-block discovery that could increase that further. So it's looking good, continuing to progress. We're still talking, continuing to talk about what's the optimum development plan and timing on that. But we see it as very attractive. I think we both absolutely agree it's very attractive. And we see that as kind of being a 2023, 2024-type start-up, depending on a number of factors on the permits and when we get going there. But one thing I'd like to mention is that I talked about 26 blocks in Brazil. And all these are blocks we went after because we saw on seismic some attractive features that we wanted to look at a lot harder. The only thing we had in our outlook from Brazil that's been included in those earning projection outlook we talked about back in March is just the one Carcara. Everything else in Brazil is complete upside to the outlook we had. And we do see it as very, very prospective. We're very excited about the program now. We're probably going to spend the rest of this year, next year acquiring additional 3D seismic, interpreting that. Maybe 2020 before we're out there drilling new exploration wells. But we see they're very prospective. And we're very excited about the opportunities there.

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

Right. Maybe I can give you a little perspective on year to date. So again, with the acquisition of the Titã block, which was roughly 71,000 acres, we're now up to 2.3 million net. I think year-to-date approximate numbers will be – I think full year will be around $2 billion, which is again about $1 billion above what we had in plan. And Jack mentioned the 26 blocks that we're in. I think the other thing that's attractive is we operate approximately 66% of those blocks. And then most of them are under concession contracts as well. So a very attractive position. Jason Gabelman - Cowen & Co. LLC: All right. Great. Thanks a lot.

Neil A. Hansen - Exxon Mobil Corp.

Management

Great. Thank you, Jason, and thank you for your time and thoughtful questions this morning. We appreciate you allowing us the opportunity to highlight a third quarter that included strong earnings and cash flow performance, supported by improved operations and significant liquids growth. I'd also like to remind you that our Chairman and CEO, Darren Woods, will participate in our fourth quarter and full year earnings review. We appreciate your continued interest, and hope you enjoy the rest of your day. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And that does conclude today's conference. We thank everyone again for their participation.