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XP Inc. (XP)

Q4 2021 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 8, 2022

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Transcript

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

Okay. Thank you very much, André. Hi, everyone. Good evening or good afternoon. A pleasure to be with all of you again in one more earnings call. I'm going to do the presentation. I promise to be brief here. So we -- I know we have already a lot of raised hands for the Q&A. Maffra, our CEO, is going to be alongside with me for the Q&A session. Before we start, I think because we are talking about full year results 2021, 2 years after our IPO, listing the company in 2019, I would like to say a few words here to all of you. I think that what we had in the video, the word remarkable is the right word for last year. It was really a very strong year in all ways we can think about, not only about the financial numbers, the growth that we have, but especially the investments that we've been doing in the company. We hired more than 2,500 new employees to our company. We have been developing new products as you're going to see alongside the presentation. So we are really happy about the year we had last year, knowing that we still have a lot to accomplish and a lot to do looking forward. I would like -- I don't know if you had the chance to read Maffra's letter in our earnings release, but I strongly recommend that all of you read it because I believe that letter says a lot about the kind of entrepreneurs that we are here in XP, considering our history since the foundation of the company by Guilherme Benchimol in 2001. And what do I mean by that? For us, entrepreneurship is keep bringing better experience to customers for sure, but with sustainable financial results.…

Daer Labarta

Analyst

I guess my question will be on the retail revenues. AUC was up 23%, retail revenue was up 48%. Right, I mean you showed there the benefits of the new products, which as you've guided for, you spend around BRL 10 billion by 2025. But also you mentioned in the press release, it benefited from higher rates. Is that still a tailwind? Do you think -- how much more can you benefit from rising interest rates? Just trying to think about how that revenues should grow in 2022 in a higher interest rate environment, if you can help us think about -- I mean, it's an indirect way of asking your take rate. But just to try to understand because you have very strong growth given the AUC did not grow nearly as much.

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

Do you want me to take, or do you want me start Maffra it's your call here. I can...

Thiago Maffra

Analyst

I can start, but that's funny, Tito, when you ask that because a few months ago, we are receiving the opposite question, okay, like, okay, now that the interest rate went up, what's going to happen with your revenues? And as -- as Bruno mentioned, it's because we have a powerful ecosystem and a portfolio of products that -- some of them benefit from high interest rates, some others benefit from lower interest rates. And what we see is that, we are able, like to grow in any environment because it's -- I'd like to say that some micro play and not a macro play in Brazil because we are still very high concentrated market in Brazil. 85% of the revenues and investments, it's a ballpark, right? It's still inside the 5 big banks, okay? So it doesn't mean like high interest rates doesn't mean that we are going to grow less or more and the same thing for low interest rates. So we have been telling this like to investors for a few months. And so it's what we see.

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

It's a resilience business model, Tito. The growth rate, it's hard to tell. We do not give, as I said, in the beginning, annual guidance. We want to have our main investors focused like we are in the long term. But as Maffra said, I mean -- and last year, it was tricky as well because the first semester in terms of equities and trading activity was really great, right? The second semester, especially the fourth quarter, if you look at the daily average trade, it was a disaster compared to the first quarter. It's -- if I'm not mistaken, something like 25% reduction when you compare the fourth quarter with the first quarter. And still, we were able to, in an environment like that, of course, again, that has an impact in the equity part of the business. No question about it. But we were able to mitigate that effect with other businesses. Because at the end of the day, again, our business is not selling one product or other product. Our business is about establishing this deep long-term relationship with our clients. And if our core business is investment, investment depending independently of the macro environment is something that you have to consider always what to do with your portfolio, how to allocate. And that's exactly our business. So...

Daer Labarta

Analyst

Great. Maybe just one follow-up, if I can, on that revenue. I think at the Investor Day, you mentioned BRL 40 billion in revenues by 2025. I mean do you still feel comfortable with that? And I think maybe on a more shorter term to -- I know you don't want to give annual guidance, so maybe on a 2-year guidance. So that trajectory be sort of fairly steady. Do you think similar to the IPO, is there upside to that? Like how conservative do you think that outlook is from here?

Thiago Maffra

Analyst

Tito, we are never comfortable, okay, because -- we always have like one of our key values is big dream, okay? So we always have very challenging, like, dreams and goals for the team.

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

We aim high right, Maffra?

Thiago Maffra

Analyst

Yes. So it's not comfortable. And if it gets comfortable like during the journey, we will increase for sure the internal goals, okay? So -- it's never easy for us like to beat the internal goals that we have because we have big dreams, okay? We have very -- we like to say that we prefer people that have an achievable goals and reach like 60%, 70% of these goals, than people that have very weak goals and reach like 150% of the goal, okay? So that's the way we think here. So we are not comfortable, but for sure, we will do all the efforts like to beat the goal that we believe, okay?

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

And your first part of the question, yes, I mean, we gave that guidance a month ago, right? It sounds like that, a little bit more than a month ago.

Thiago Maffra

Analyst

Nothing changing.

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

Nothing changed. And you saw the total revenue of those 4 new businesses, they represented 6.8% of our record gross revenue in the fourth quarter. Our long-term guidance for those all 4 businesses combined by 2025 is to represent 25% of total revenue. They're going to get traction in relevance for sure. The slope of the growth, it will depend on manufacturers. So we are going to share the results with all of you each quarter, no matter what the results are, okay? Either good or bad, we are going to share.

Thiago Maffra

Analyst

And just another point here, like because we -- you guys saw some numbers that -- insurance, we have 0.1% of market share. In pension, 3% market share. And even if we get there, the [ BRL 40 billion ] we will have like 3% of market share in the total revenue in the financial market in Brazil. So it's still a very small market share, like BRL 40 billion in revenue. So that's what I'm trying to say about the micro play. We still have like around today, around like BRL 800 billion in revenue in the financial market in Brazil. So BRL 40 billion is nothing because the market will grow to a trillion in 2025, so it's going to be 4% market share. So it's nothing.

Daer Labarta

Analyst

Congratulations on the strong quarter. André Martins: Thank you, Tito. So next is Jorge Kuri from Morgan Stanley.

Jorge Kuri

Analyst

Congrats on the numbers. Great quarter. Let me ask you about your margins, which are pretty impressive 400-basis-point increase in EBITDA margins year-on-year, if I look at the full year 2020 versus 2021, and 500 basis points increase in your adjusted net margin. Given the significant investments that you made during the year to grow the IFA network, to grow the new businesses, it's very surprising to see these very attractive margin expansion. Where are we in that process? How much can you continue to grow those margins? Is it the right thing to grow the margins and not maybe put more money in the business? How should we think about what's doable or not doable over the next couple of years in terms of margins for your business?

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

We have put a lot of money in the business, Jorge, and we are going to still put more as we tell investors that ask us, what about dividends? We say, look, we are in a high-growth business, great opportunities. And we believe the right course of action here is to reinvest 100% of our profitability into our growth in new businesses. Considering the returns we see, each way we look around in the financial industry in Brazil, again, as Maffra said, highly concentrated. Having said that, our long-term new guidance after the IPO that we revisited last year, between 24% to 30%, we are not going to change that for now. We see -- we do see this high growth, especially in terms of hiring in those new businesses peaking this year, 2022. So we are probably -- the growth of headcounts that we had, I think, of close to 70% last year, year-over-year, it's going to slow down in 2021. So we are passing the peak in terms of -- you have an inertia there because you do not hire everyone in one single month. So you do have a cost carry consequence of this hiring, people with our main expense in the company. So we see that peak in 2022. So by that only, everything else constant, you could expect that by 2023 onwards, you would see the operating leverage playing itself. But on the other hand, we have new businesses with different margins, right, that will have an impact in the business. If we look at credit card, for example, we do get -- the main revenue that we have in the credit card is interchange. We have FX. The revolving credit part is not really relevant for the type of client XP has, and we do have the invest back of 1%. So it goes into our COGS. And also, if you grow very fast, the credit card business, you have an accounting policy that you need to estimate the NPL, no matter the client is not going to default. And you need to recognize in your financials, and that has an impact in the revenue. So it's a mix there that the credit card, for example, growth should lower the rate, the carry effect of the high growth in headcount should lower the rate, but other businesses and the operating leverage of the more mature businesses in investments should expand the operating margins at the company. So I know I didn't give you a straight answer. But -- we don't give guidance.

Jorge Kuri

Analyst

I was going to say that, but we're glad you said it.

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

I know that. I know that.

Jorge Kuri

Analyst

No, no, I understand.

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

Look, the way we think here internally, it's not that, well, okay, we can sacrifice 300 basis points of EBITDA margin to accelerate investments growth but we are doing already. That's the point. It's not -- we are investing a lot, okay? And it's not about putting more money to work here. That's not the issue here. You have an execution issue, you have to learn about the product with your clients, so you can involve the product. So it takes time. There is a time frame, you have all of that.

Thiago Maffra

Analyst

And another way to say that, Bruno, is as you mentioned, we have hired 2,500 people last year. So it's a lot of people. We cannot hire more people like -- because it's impossible. Like to put more people like inside the company at once, then you say, okay, you should invest like building new business lines. We are building like, I would say, dozens of new business lines, new products in the last year. So we are growing really fast. And if you look at the numbers, we are growing like 50%, 60%, in some new business lines like triple digits. So it's growing, and it's growing fast. So it's not a matter of like investing more. And as Bruno mentioned, it's on the letter, we are the type of entrepreneurs that we like to grow with profitability, okay? We are not going to grow just to -- like for growing, like, okay, let's put like millions of clients inside the platform because we will show growth. It doesn't make sense. It's not a strategy, okay? So we structured this strategy. We believe we are growing really fast with profitability. So that's the strategy, okay? And the ideas continue to grow at similar level of -- like of growth for many, many years. So it's a long-term investment for us. It's a long-term, like, mindset and view, okay, too. André Martins: Next question is from Thiago Batista from UBS.

Thiago Bovolenta Batista

Analyst

So I had one question about the credit card business. A couple of months ago, XP reduced the threshold of credit card to BRL 5,000. If I'm not wrong of investments next peak...

Thiago Maffra

Analyst

In December.

Thiago Bovolenta Batista

Analyst

In December, yes. Can you give us the first impression of this process, how was the set up of the clients with this card for this type of clients? Clearly, those guys are kind of mid income individuals, not, let's say, high income as they did in the previous threshold. How was the first impression of this business for those types of clients? André Martins: You want to take Bruno, you can take. I can take care. Yes.

Thiago Maffra

Analyst

How can I answer that, okay. We just released in December. So it's very new. Today, we sell the credit cards 100% online, okay? So when we look the penetration is close to 35%, 40%, 45%, it depends on the aging of the cohorts, okay, 100% online, okay? And when you look the credit card for BRL 5,000-plus, it seems to be, again, it's very, very new, okay, 1 month that we have been operating, 1.5 months we have been operating this new product. So it seems that's even stronger, okay? Of course, we have a sample with like 20,000, 30,000 that has like 6 months. And the most impressive is the NPL, it's -- that's very close to 0.4 because for the [ BRL 5,000-plus ] is we have the collateral, it's even lower, okay? So again, it's 0. And so it seems that -- it will be a very good fit because usually to have in Brazil a card -- with this kind of benefits, you have to be affluent-plus client in Brazil with, I would say, BRL 200,000, BRL 300,000 inside the big banks. Or otherwise, you have to pay huge fees. So I believe it's going to be a very good strategy for these guys. And if you -- I don't know if you saw last week, but we just announced some new benefits, like VIP, roaming in airports and some other stuff. So because we collect the feedback from the clients, okay, we still have a lot of clients that they are allowed to have the credit card, but they didn't ask why? For example, VIP rooms was one of -- it was actually the top point. And so we are going to address the points and the goal as we always have is to penetrate 100% of our clients, because our clients they, for sure, they have credit cards and they have very low NPL. So that's the target.

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

And one -- another interesting point that we have not mentioned about our credit card is when it becomes eligible for someone, it just appears in the app. It's message. It's not that we advertise our credit part yet on an aggressive perspective. So that's -- again, the product is developing itself. It's evolving. It's getting better and better, basic needs of the clients and that's how it looks.

Thiago Maffra

Analyst

And the most important part about the credit card and checking account and the banking part, payment part, what's the thesis behind it? Today, we have about like a 50% share of wallet of the investments, okay, of the clients that invest with us. So we can double the company if we bring 100% of the share of wallet. And the thesis is why? Why did we ask it actually the clients? Why they don't have 100% with us because they need some service that we didn't have or which you don't have, okay? So they have to keep an account with one of the big banks here in Brazil. So now that we have cohorts of like 10 months, almost a year. And when we compare the heavy users of the banking, the payment products with the known users, we see a very big increase in the share of wallet, okay? So that's the thesis, okay? So -- and by the way, when you look at credit card, the product itself is profitable. And we reinforce the ecosystem, we increase the share of wallet. So that's the beauty behind the banking part that we are developing here.

Thiago Bovolenta Batista

Analyst

Congratulations for the results. André Martins: So Otávio Tanganelli from Bradesco BBI is the next question. Otávio? Otávio Tanganelli: Congratulations on the results. General quick one, maybe -- you mentioned on the press release that the mix of products had a positive impact on gross margins. So going forward with higher interest rates and also with the slide that you've shown that it is likely for us to continue to see the contribution coming from this portion of the revenues that would likely have lower commissions, let's put it this way. What's the margin outlook that you think that you can reach here? Is it possible for us to see sustainably higher gross margin levels than what we saw in the past?

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

No. Honestly, I wouldn't say that. It can happen, of course, but I wouldn't say it's the base case. I would say that the mix of the fourth quarter, if it continues, you should see it pretty much the same type of margins we presented in the fourth quarter. But again, that's not a guidance because there is volatility in our margins, depending on the mix of products. As you mentioned, for example, when you compare equities and fixed income, the commissions for equities are higher than fixed income. So if equities go down and fixed income go up, this balance only in terms of the COGS in the gross margin would have a positive impact. So I would say that -- I wouldn't say that you should expect gross margins going up from the level of the fourth quarter, but it can happen. André Martins: Mario from Bank of America. Mario can you hear us?

Thiago Maffra

Analyst

Is he on mute. Are you on mute, Mario. André Martins: So perhaps he is having -- perhaps some connection problems. Mario please send us a message if you want to talk, and we can put you again. Geoffrey from Autonomous. Geoff? Okay, let me try the next one. Domingos from JPMorgan. Maybe we can hear you.

Domingos Falavina

Analyst

Can you guys hear me? André Martins: Yes.

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

Yes.

Domingos Falavina

Analyst

You had a pretty big benefit. My number shares are up estimated about BRL 200 million in the bottom-line or so. Coming from a revenue that you book in other operating income, specifically, it's something that needs to be [indiscernible] of B3 rebates. I think you mentioned Visa. 9 months it was tracking BRL 111 million, 4Q it went to BRL 360 million, implying BRL 250 million in the last quarter. My questions are twofold. Number one, kind of what's the breakdown of the B3 versus if you want to pack it Visa and others in a separate group, ballpark, 50-50, 80-20. As I understand, this was pretty much only B3 in the past. And number two, which ones are recurring? We always assume that B3 was recurring. I mean, they changed the goals, but they keep rebating. Should we assume Visa and others are recurring in the future as well?

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

Sure. we cannot disclose the numbers because of contract issues about incentives that we get. But what I can tell you to help answering your question, Domingos, is B3 is more recurring than Visa. But we -- we had Visa in 2020. We had Visa in 2021 and probably we're going to have in 2022 as well, right? And there is a seasonality in those numbers. Usually, they occur heavily in the fourth quarter compared to the other quarters. So you should not expect that on a quarterly basis to be repeated in the first, second or third quarter this year, but in the fourth quarter, yes. And if you look, as I said, in that slide of the adjusted EBITDA and the operating expenses, and you look on a year basis that I prefer dilute the impact, on a year basis, in 2019, we have that line to 2020 and 2021, we probably are going to have in 2022. There is a volatility in terms of the magnitude. But yes, we do expect that to be recurrent somehow.

Domingos Falavina

Analyst

And Bruno, just a quick one. You're right. Year-on-year, it didn't grow as much, but like it was unusually strong this quarter. Any reason for having this bigger seasonality this year?

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

No. Basically, the main impact of seasonality this year was more about Visa than B3 that I can tell you. And that's because of launch agreements that we have in our contracts that again, I cannot give you the specifics of the contract. But...

Thiago Maffra

Analyst

We had the same seasonality last year. I mean...

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

Last year as well, 2020. Not last year, the previous year, right?

Thiago Maffra

Analyst

Yes, the previous year.

Domingos Falavina

Analyst

Yes, it was BRL 150 million versus BRL 250 million in the last quarter. So it was bigger this year, and this is...

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

Yes. Yes. The access to XP distribution capability, it's become more expensive, I would say. André Martins: Marcelo Telles from Credit Suisse. Good night, Telles?

Marcelo Telles

Analyst

Can you hear me well?

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

Yes.

Marcelo Telles

Analyst

I have two questions. And the first one, I kind of want to dig little bit deeper in terms of the core evolution of your core performance in the quarter. Kind of a follow-up on Domingos' question. If we consider this, I think that line, the other operating expenses that was positive was roughly like BRL 233 million in the quarter. And for the year, you finished around BRL 266 million, right? So that's probably people see there, let's say, a normalized level of about 1/4 of that amount. But we're probably implying maybe you have to maybe professionally deduct from your adjusted profit around BRL 140 million, which would probably lead to a 10% decline in your earnings vis-a-vis the third quarter. And of course, try to normalize, right, on a quarterly basis, that we benefit from incentive. And tied to that is also look at your accounting income statement. And when you look at the evolution of your -- actually your core business revenues drive, the service revenues as we report on that [indiscernible] quarter-over-quarter and when we try to reconcile that with the growth in the total revenues, which I think was around 3% growth. It looks like the entire growth came from mark-to-market losses that were lower than in the third quarter. Meaning your business -- your core business seems to be going down in rates and whatnot, when you compare that to be to the third quarter. So I think if you made decision -- your views on that decision can just share your views on that. And my second question is just regarding the floating balance. There was a very significant decline in customers, I think of 24% quarter-over-quarter. And if you can explain, if you think business will continue to decline as rates go up and -- where does this money go, maybe some fixed income funds and how that decline, in flowing from customers, what is the net impact for you from a contribution standpoint?

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

Sorry, Telles, the second question was about -- what was about?

Marcelo Telles

Analyst

The floating balance from customers.

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

The floating, perfect.

Marcelo Telles

Analyst

Yes I was looking for the [indiscernible] and it was a very good quarter there.

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

No, got you. So regarding your first question, when we look at margins, to be honest, I think it's tricky to compare on a quarterly basis. Because if you have those impacts, for example, you mentioned some of the provisions we had in the quarter -- in one of the quarters, we had an adjustment increasing some of the provisions. And that has an impact in that specific quarter. But at the end of the day, you have 1 year to make those adjustments. And there are adjustments that you make on the fourth quarter because you are looking at the whole year on an accounting perspective. Remembering that every quarter, it's revised and be one that is really out there is the whole year. So that happens between quarters. So that's a little bit tricky. About your consideration in terms of margins and what the net profit would be if you discounted the SG&A other expenses, that BRL 233 million out of, it would have decreased from the third quarter into the fourth quarter, yes, that's correct. If you do that adjustment, your math, it's 100% correct. But at the end of the day, remember that the top line, in my view, it's the most important thing. It has grown in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. But I strongly recommend that you look on a year basis than on a quarterly basis because we do have some of those adjustments in terms of the expenses between quarters. Regarding the floating, we had a reduction in the floating amounts. And that doesn't have to do exactly with the interest rates going up, right? It has more to do with the trading activity. Because the floating at a broker-dealer level, it's related to trading activity. As you have more customers buying and selling, they set aside the uninvested cash for very short-term periods, and then the floating rises. And when you have less activity as happened, I mentioned that the -- that's -- the daily average trading in the fourth quarter last year was 25% less than the first quarter last year, the first semester last year, the activity was much stronger than the second semester, and that had an impact in the floating. That's the main correlation. Of course, you can have a secondary effect of interest rates going up, but it's hard to measure that. I don't know if that answered your questions, Telles.

Marcelo Telles

Analyst

Just a follow up on my first question, regarding the evolution of your revenues -- when you look at the accounting income statements, your service revenues were actually down for the quarter and what seems to explain the growth in your total revenues is really lower mark-to-market losses, meaning like it seems like the business, the revenues from your core business is actually down quarter-to-quarter, not up. So what was behind -- what is this like the mark-to-mark -- why was that down -- and how should we think about the evolution going forward of your service revenues?

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

No. I mean, it was not provisions. You have -- when you look at -- the way I recommend looking at that accounting standard, you probably are on our notes of the financials, if I'm not mistaken, at 28, something like that, about the total revenue and income, where you have a different kind of segmentation. You have net revenues from service rendering. There you have brokerage, stop-loss risk, you have also placement fees. So all the placement fees are there, insurance, management fees, the funds platform. So they are basically fees there altogether, that they represented in the whole year something around 50% -- 55% -- between 50% to 55%. And then you have the net income from financial instruments. And that part of the revenue, you have 2 different accounting there. You have a -- through profit and loss and also amortized at cost, right? And you I strongly recommend, Telles that you look both of them together. And why is that? Because when we have our float business, the way we manage our risk is to hedge everything we can. Of course, not always we have like a perfect hedge. So we do have some exposure, but we try to hedge most of what we can. And when you have a derivative as hedge instruments that goes into profit and loss. It's a market to market. When you have an underlying asset that is being hedged, that is recognized at amortized cost, it goes in a different line. But all of them are together net income from financial instruments, which by the way, we disclosed at our presentation that 88% of that number in the fourth quarter came from retail activity. And its pretty much recurrent, as you can see throughout our history, and that portion of our revenue has been growing over time because of the growth of clients plus activity in the markets in Brazil. Floating also goes into that revenue line, okay? So there is a component of floating that benefits from higher interest rates also presenting a growth in the fourth quarter compared to the other quarters because the interest rates has gone up in the fourth quarter. I don't know if that explains that.

Marcelo Telles

Analyst

Yes, that's clear. I think it's very much in line with -- understood, in the sense that you are earning more financial revenues, you don't float or on your own cash a little bit. And -- but -- and then in terms of services, they are going down and you are partially let's say, more focusing that towards the backdrop of higher rates or whatever here. The composition of your revenue saving looks like dollars towards more on revenues.

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

Yes. The fourth -- look, the fourth quarter, for example, it was not a good quarter on the opposite in terms of equity capital markets, you know that. And also REITS, we are #1 in the REITs market in Brazil. So new distribution of REIT products in the fourth quarter was really not good. Also management fee, performance fees that usually they are stronger in the fourth quarter because of the performance of the fund industry in our platform as well. in 2021, the performance fees were also not good. So all of that, those revenues that I mentioned, REITs, ECM and performance fees, they go in the service rendering net revenue, right? So they decrease in the fourth quarter because of the market conditions. But you're correct. We more than compensated that with other revenues, and most of it goes into net income from financial instruments. André Martins: So indeed, Mario, we couldn't hear him -- but he sent us 2 simple questions. The first one is why other revenues declined, right? I was assuming that since the cash is higher and also the SELIC that revenue should be benefited. That's the first. And the second is commissions, right, which are falling as a percentage of retail revenues. Again, Otávio mentioned that in his question, he's only Mario's only -- he wants to know the dynamics for the future, Bruno, because we signed the long-term agreements right with the IFA network through prepaid expenses. Maybe some of the market was expecting those revenues, or those expenses to be higher as a percentage of retail revenues, but they are lower. So he's asking about the dynamics. These are the 2 questions.

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

Okay. Now in terms of other revenue, what are you -- we have there besides the interest on adjusted gross cash is also our asset liability management results. And we have a hedge policy to hedge our floating balance up to 50% of the floating. And when you hedge basically, you're taking out risk of the income in terms of a prefixed rate. But when you have a market where pre-fixed rates are going up, as we had in the second semester, you do have a negative impact on that, right? And that's what explains other revenues being less than probably you would expect. Regarding the second question, André, is about the IFAs. But the impact in the COGS, that's the question? André Martins: Yes.

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

Okay. Yes, we -- I mean we have the impacts there, right? What probably came different than your expectation. I'm assuming that -- it's not the impact of the prepaid expenses that we have with long-term contracts with our IFA network. It's the mix of products. And then the commission went down because of the mix of revenue that we had through the IFA channel. That's probably what explains the difference. But all the prepaid expense, they are amortized through their lifetime of the contract we have with each IFA. André Martins: Great. Thank you, Bruno. So the next question, probably we'll have 2 more. Gabriel Gusan from Citi.

Gabriel Gusan

Analyst

Can you hear me? André Martins: Yes.

Gabriel Gusan

Analyst

Great. My question is also about the prepaid expenses. We're seeing it at almost BRL 4 billion right now, increasing around BRL 500 million just in the fourth quarter. And getting more and more questions from investors about that. When will this stop, if this will stop at some point? Do you have some sight that you can give us into the future of that [ client ].

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

Look, I cannot say when it's going to stop. It has reduced each quarter. But our decision-making process here is about what it makes sense for us to cover, what it doesn't. It's an economic analysis. We have the data -- we have said many times that we do benefit from a diversion selection process, in terms of knowing which IFA, we should retain here. And it has reduced each quarter. But I cannot tell you that it's going to stop in x quarters. I don't know. We -- it's a day-by-day business here. We are going to analyze if we do have any proposal on the table that we would consider to cover over or not. And it's going to be an economic analysis, with strong data points to guide our decision that I can assure you. André Martins: The next question is from Carlos from HSBC.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez

Analyst

Can you hear me? André Martins: Yes.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez

Analyst

I have two and they are both related your equity actually. First, if you could give us some idea about how much you're expecting share-based compensation? There was a significant increase this year during 2021 versus '20. What do you expect for 2022 and 2023 against share-based compensation? And the other question I'm sure you received this all the time, would you consider anticipating or buying back from Itaú, the stake that they are supposed to buy during 2022 to reduce the overhang in the market?

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

Yes. Regarding share-based compensation, we have been discussing internally to give a better range. So we don't have sell-side analysts forecasting a very wide range. Basically, what we have -- the way it works is, when you have one share-based compensation issued for any partner, what varies each quarter or each month is basically the taxes that you have to pay over time. So that's a more volatile expense because it fluctuates with the share price. And then it has the same volatility of the share price. And that's around -- to give you a rough number, around 1/3 of the total amounts that we have in our expenses, okay? We expect that number to increase from 2021 to 2022. But we don't have here a specific figure to give you. It would be probably more than 30% increase, I would guess. But it depends on the share price that you estimate each quarter. Regarding the share, the Itaú, I think the other question was about Itaú acquisition, right? The one that has been approved by Central Bank?

Carlos Gomez-Lopez

Analyst

Yes. It's correct.

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

Yes, it's going to happen. Right now, we were waiting for the financials to be released. There is a process there. And I believe that in the first quarter, we are going to have these shares being bought by Itaú, remembering that we are talking about here all secondary shares. So no primary shares being sold, which 80% is approximately are from General Atlantic and 20% from XP controle.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez

Analyst

And the question is, would you consider buying back from Itaú to reduce the overhang because eventually Itaú will want to dispose the share, would you be willing to put a bid on them?

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

I mean they need to tell us they want to sell. We could analyze that. But remember that here, we have a lot of investments to still do in our company and our growth. We are -- as we tried to show here in our presentation at very early stage in many, many different verticals. And even in our core business investment, the way we look at market share in the investment, we are not #1 yet. So a long journey ahead of us. And if we have to decide to buy back shares in the short term and not having enough cash to invest in our business, thinking about the long term because of overhang issues, I mean, we are going to opt for investing in the business because, again, we are -- we think like owners, we think for the long term of the company, and we believe that's the right course of action, especially considering all the opportunities we see ahead of us. So if we had idle cash we would be more than happy to consider that hypothesis. But the business is growing very fast and many different business is scaling. So we do not have that idle cash. We do have a great amount of gross cash in the company, but we use that for our business outflow and many other businesses. So I don't think that option would be on the table right now considering our balance sheet as it is.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez

Analyst

That's a very clear answer. Going back to the first one. So the BRL 700 million that we have this year that should be the base. We should think about the number above that for share-based compensation in 2022.

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

Yes. I think so because you had -- think like that, Carlos, we always have the partnership, meritocracy once a year. And usually, it happens in the beginning of the second semester. And we have the RSUs being released at October usually, okay? So all the new shares that were released last year, they only accounted for 1/4 of the year. And now they have the whole year here. We also are going to have this year the first issuance of RSUs being vested by December. And yes, December probably December...

Thiago Maffra

Analyst

November, maybe.

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

Yes. André Martins: Thank you, Carlos. So we're out of the Q&A. I'm happy that we could answer all of you. The participation was great of the audience and so forth. And thank you, everyone, so much for your interest. I would leave maybe Bruno or Maffra or both of you to finalize the call. But on our part here, thank you very much for the participation. We are fully available for the many follow-up calls that we might have on the next few days.

Bruno Constantino dos Santos

Operator

Now, I can start, and Maffra can finish here. Now just, like to thank you very much for the interest, and hope to see you in the next earnings call, and be together in this long-term journey that we have ahead of us. Thank you very much.

Thiago Maffra

Analyst

Thank you very much, everyone. And as we like to say, we are at the very beginning of our journey here. As I mentioned. We still have very small market shares of revenue in Brazil with 2 at a very early stage here. And this is our life. We are here for the next 10, 20 years. So I hope to have you guys alongside all the journey, all the way. So thank you very much.