Luca Maestri
Analyst · Barclays Capital
Thank you, Ursula, and good morning, everyone. As Ursula just explained, revenue was flat in the quarter, both at actual and constant currency. Services continue to show good growth, up 6%. And Technology was down 5%, affected by the weakness that we saw in Europe. Operating margin in Q4 was 10%, a sequential improvement from Q3, in line with seasonality, but down 0.4 year-over-year. Gross margin of 32.2% was lower year-over-year due to the shift of business towards Services and the ramp of new contracts. We expect this gross margin dynamic to continue in the near term as Services growth accelerates and new contracts start up. We partially offset the gross margin impact through disciplined expense management. Both R&D and SG&A ratios continue to show significant improvement from restructuring and synergies. Within SG&A, bad debts increased year-over-year by $12 million, as improvements in North America were more than offset by higher write-offs in southern Europe. For the full year, operating margins grew by 30 basis points. We deployed several cost and expense reduction initiatives to offset the disruption from the natural disaster in Japan during the first half and ongoing currency headwinds. Below the line, we had improved results from lower interest expense and higher equity income at Fuji Xerox. Also, in the quarter, we made 2 one-off entries which are worth mentioning. We realized a $66 million after-tax pension curtailment gain that is associated with our decision in Q4 to fully freeze after December 2012 any further service and benefit accruals in the Xerox defined benefit pension plans in the U.S. This impact was partially offset by a restructuring charge of $39 million after-tax we took to improve the efficiency of our operations and help counter the pressures in the macro environment. As a result, adjusted EPS in Q4 was $0.33 and grew 14% year-over-year. The only adjustment to reported EPS was the amortization of intangibles. It should be noted, this adjustment was higher than in previous quarters because in Q4, we accelerated the amortization of the intangibles related to the ACS trade name, following our decision to discontinue the use of the ACS brand going forward. For the full year, adjusted EPS grew 15% and GAAP EPS more than doubled. Let us now move to the Services segment on Slide 8. The 6% revenue growth in Services is a reflection of the breadth and diversity of our portfolio. Within Services, BPO growth accelerated, it was up 8%. And Document Outsourcing was also up 8%. ITO revenue was down 6%. The 8% growth in BPO came from both commercial and government. Commercial growth was driven by financial services, customer care and recent acquisitions. Government revenue growth came primarily from the ramping of the California Medicaid contract. The 8% increase in Document Outsourcing reflects both the impact of strong new signings and benefits from our partner print services offerings, which began to be reported in Document Outsourcing this year and are accelerating. The competitiveness of our product portfolio and our unique document management software and tools continue to clearly differentiate us in the marketplace. ITO revenue was down 6% in Q4, driven by 2 main factors: past contract losses and lower product resale revenues. On the positive side, during 2011, ITO signings were at $3.4 billion and up by more than 150% year-over-year. The impact of a few contract losses will continue to have an effect on revenues through midyear, at which time the ramp in new signings will deliver revenue growth. Total signings for the entire Services business increased 15% year-on-year in Q4, and the trailing 12-month signings calculation is now flat, even after including the California Medicaid new business and the Texas Medicaid renewal, both signed in 2010. Our pipeline continues to be healthy and is up 5%, including synergies. Segment margin of 10.3% was down 1.7 points year-over-year due to the contract startup costs and lower renewal rates we just discussed. California Medicaid alone impacted margins by over 0.5 points. We expect this margin pressure to remain in the near term but to gradually improve as we move through 2012. Let's now turn to the Technology slide. Technology revenue was down 5% or 4% at constant currency. The largest factor in this decline was the slowdown in Europe where equipment revenue was down 15%. It should also be noted that as planned, our Technology results are impacted by the launch of our partner print services, which have been very successful and are reported in Document Outsourcing. In spite of the revenue decline, segment margin of 11.7% was flat year-over-year and at the highest level for the year in line with seasonality. Overall, a good result, thanks to strong control and expense control. Looking at our product segments in detail. Entry install performance improved in the quarter, although revenue was impacted by price and mix. We're building momentum in this segment with the recent launch of a new price-competitive platform providing both mono and color capabilities. Entry represented about 21% of our Technology revenue. Mid-range was the strongest performing area in Q4 and for the full year, thanks to our strong color portfolio. This is the product segment that was also most impacted by the disaster in Japan. As we had expected, supply availability has now returned to normal, and the backlog, while healthy, is not artificially high due to the product constraints. Mid-range accounted for 57% of our Technology revenue. High-end results were mixed. With continued strong performance in production color, driven by iGen4 and the 800/1000 Color Press, we're also improving our performance in entry production color with the recent launch of our Xerox 770 system. High end represented 22% of our Technology revenue. Going into 2012, we're very confident in our Technology offerings, given our market share gains and recent improvements we have made to our industry-leading portfolio. Moving on to our key metrics on Slide 10. Our most relevant operational metrics this quarter were quite positive. Total Services signing of $4.2 billion were up 15% year-over-year, with over $1 billion of signings in each of the 3 lines of business. For the year, we signed over $14 billion, flat year-over-year even with the 2 large Medicaid deals in the prior year compare. New business signings for the year were up 14%. Looking at the Document-related metrics, please keep in mind that these include the Technology segment, plus Document Outsourcing. Total color revenue was up 2%, both actual and constant currency. Digital machines in field continue to grow, was up 3% in total, 14% for color-capable devices. Lastly, digital pages were stable and down 3%, with pages from color devices up 9% both in Q4 and for the full year. All color segments showed strong install growth, and total installs for the company were up 8% in the quarter. This did not translate into equipment revenue growth, even [ph] price erosion and mix impacts, but this will feed annuity over time. Moving on to the cash flow slide. Cash from operations of almost $1.3 billion was in line with Q4 of 2010 for a full-year total of $2 billion. Earnings contributed $383 million. And consistent with normal seasonality, working capital during the quarter was a source of $696 million. For the year, working capital was essentially flat. Pension cash contributions in the quarter were $78 million and $426 million for the year, which is about $200 million higher than our 2010 funding. We expect a similar level of pension contributions in 2012 due to a very significant drop in the discount rate in spite of truly outstanding returns that we achieved in 2011 on our plan assets. CapEx of $134 million was in line with the annual trend, and we had limited M&A activity during the quarter. Let us turn to the next slide to quickly review the uses of our operating cash flow in 2011. So we generated $2 billion of cash from operations. CapEx came in as anticipated at $501 million full year. And the resulting free cash flow of $1.5 billion was used as follows: we paid down over $600 million in debt, and we have now repaid the debt we took on for the ACS acquisition. We ended the year with $8.6 billion of debt, of which $6 billion can be associated with the financing of Xerox equipment for our customers. The finance debt is calculated assuming a 7:1 leverage of our finance assets of $6.9 billion. We also had $265 million in dividend payments, and our current yield sits at approximately 2%. Our focus was to deploy our available cash primarily towards the share repurchase program. As mentioned earlier, we repurchased $700 million worth of shares at an average price of $7.97. We also continue to invest in tuck-in acquisitions, spending $212 million full year, primarily in Services. Let me now move to guidance for 2012. For revenue growth in 2012, we are guiding to 2%-plus at constant currency. We expect Services to grow mid to high single-digits with growth accelerating throughout the year and Technology to be flat to modestly lower, given a macro environment and our strategy to lead with our Managed Print Services offerings. We expect GAAP EPS in the range of $0.97 to $1.03 and adjusted EPS in the range of $1.12 to $1.18. The change in guidance from May of last year is driven by a pension expense increase of well over $100 million because of the significant decline in discount rates, negative currency dynamics and worsened economic outlook in Europe. Our earnings estimate would put us in a position to deliver strong cash flow between $2 billion and $2.3 billion. This is also lower than we were assuming back in May of 2011 due to 3 main factors: revised earnings as I just explained; pension funding in line with 2011. This is $200 million higher than previously assumed due to the historically low discount rate and restructuring payments of approximately $150 million instead of an earlier assumption of nominal payments. We took a $61 million restructuring charge in Q4 and anticipate taking a modest amount of additional restructuring in 2012. This will allow us to improve our operating leverage and offset some of the cost pressure in the environment. We expect operating cash flow to be negative in Q1, with higher pension contributions adding to the typical working capital seasonality. On CapEx, we're planning for investments of $500 million, which will result in free cash flow of between $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion. Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged. In 2012, we expect to repurchase between $900 million and $1.1 billion worth of shares, skewed to the second half of the year, consistent with our cash generation seasonality. We are announcing today that our board increased the share repurchase authorization by $500 million, so it now stands at over $1.3 billion. We anticipate spending between $300 million and $400 million on acquisitions, with primary focus on expanding our Services offerings. And dividends are planned to be a use of around $300 million given current payout and number of shares outstanding. With that, I would turn it back to Ursula to wrap up.