Earnings Labs

YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF)

Q4 2023 Earnings Call· Thu, Mar 7, 2024

$43.56

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Transcript

Margarita Chun

Management

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Margarita Chun YPF IR Manager. Thank you for joining us today in our full year and fourth quarter 2023 earnings presentation and strategic outlook. Before we begin, I would like to draw your attention to our cautionary statement on Slide 2. Please take into consideration that our remarks today and answers to your questions may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from the expectations contemplated by these remarks. Also, note exchange rate used in calculations to reach our main financial figures in U.S. dollars. Our financial figures are stated in accordance with IFRS, but during the presentation, we might discuss some non-IFRS measures such as adjusted EBITDA. I will now turn to Horacio to a brief introduction. Please go ahead.

Horacio Marin

Management

Thank you, Margarita, and good morning to all of you. Welcome to this renew earnings webcast presentation from YPF Corporate Building in Buenos Aires. I am Horacio Marin, the new CEO and Chairman of the Board of YPF. Before moving to the purpose of this video call, I would like to express how proud and honored I am to assume the responsibility to lead the largest integrated energy company in Argentina, leading more than 20,000 employees and more than 40,000 people that indirectly contribute with us. I have the firm commitment to take YPF to the next level by growing consistently in a profitable way and become a next exporter of energy in the long term, always maintaining a prudent financial strategy while keeping the safety and sustainability of our operation at the forefront of our day-to-day decision. Today, I will conduct this presentation with our new CFO, Federico Barroetave, who will go through the main highlights and financial results for the full year and Q4 2023. Also, our Strategy Vice President, Maximiliano Westen, we detailed a more relevant operational performance figures of the year. After this, I will share our new strategy outlook for the next year. At the end of the presentation, we will open up for questions. I will now turn to Federico to begin with the main highlands and financial results.

Federico Barroetave

Management

Thank you, Horacio, and good morning to all of you. Before we begin our presentation, I would like to express my pleasure and pride to be part of the new management team of the company. Now let me start by saying that 2023 was a very challenging year driven by a complex local macroeconomic environment with high inflation, strong volatility and a downward trend in international prices. In this context, the company was able to grow total production for the second consecutive year, deploying its annual CapEx plan while preserving a healthy financial position. Adjusted EBITDA totaled around $4 billion in 2023, decreasing 18% annually. This lower outcome was a result of 3 main factors: first, the lower domestic fuel prices and the returns; second, a moderate reduction in prices of other refined products; and finally, higher OpEx, particularly driven by an increasing inflationary context. This was partially offset by the expansion in total production and processing levels. Now moving on to the fourth quarter, there was an important turning point for some key variables by the end of the period. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter represented the highest mark of the year, reaching almost $1.1 billion, 17% above the previous quarter. This was a direct result of an almost 8% expansion in all productions. Since the end of the year, the new pricing strategy of the company increased local fuel prices up 6% sequentially in dollar terms or passing the strong devaluations recorded on average during the period. On the other hand, costs contracted by about 8% sequentially, mostly driven by the discrete devaluation that took place in mid-December. Lastly, the positive effects of the new export increase program which allowed to convert export and international financing at a special FX rate almost compensated the seasonal reduction in…

Maximiliano Westen

Management

Thank you, Federico, and good morning to everyone. Let me start by saying that the safety of our workers is our top priority and the development of the activities of the company. That is why we deeply regret one accident with fatal consequences that one of our upstream contractor workers suffered during last February, which commits us to increase our efforts to ensure operations at the minimum possible extent risk. Now regarding 2023 evolution, we recorded another year of substantial progress in our safety indicators achieving an accident frequency rate per million hours worth of 0.23 with 0 fatalities in our operations. These results were possible, thanks to several initiatives focused on preventing actions training, risk control activities and audits of critical processes and facilities, further focusing on sustainability and in line with our strong commitment to contribute to the reduction of carbon footprint. During 2023, we continued working hard to make progress on the reduction of our GHG emissions. In that sense, given the meaningfully lower emissions intensity of our growing shale operations and the several initiatives deployed so far. In 2023, we reached a further decrease in our upstream unconventional carbon intensity level, Scope 1 and 2, averaging 13 kilograms of CO2 equivalent per BOE, 30% below 2022 and surpassing the [ 50-kilogram ] targeted announced at the beginning of the year. Lastly, let me highlight that in terms of energy transition, we continued expanding our renewal energy portfolio through our subsidiary, YPF Luz, the second largest renewable power generator in the country with an installed capacity of 3.2 gigawatts. In this sense, during 2023, the company put in operation a new 100-megawatt solar farm project in the province of [indiscernible] and continued making progress on the construction of the new 155-megawatt wind farm to be installed in…

Horacio Marin

Management

Let me now walk you through our new strategic outlook. First of all, let me highlight that we are maintaining our long-term strategic pillars presented a year ago, committed to address the unique opportunities that we have ahead of us. Our strategic pillar remains to continue our focus on the monetization of our shale oil opportunities, taking advantage of the proven quality of the Vaca Muerta resources and the high quality achieved over the last 10 years. Secondly, as we move forward with the monetization of our conventional oil resources, we will set the base for the next phase in Vaca Muerta, the monetization of natural gas. Our goal is to become a global LNG player through the massive monetization of our shale gas resources by deploying a large-scale LNG facility in Argentina. Finally, as we take a comprehensive look at the global energy markets and increasing relevance of the energy transition by 2030, we envision further opportunities, expanding the company portfolio of energy solutions toward clean energies. We are convinced that this renewal strategy with a strong focus in short-term results has a tremendous opportunity to generate value for all our stakeholders. Before moving on the details of the new strategic plan, let me start by describing our midterm vision for the company in 2030. It's well known that Vaca Muerta has a tremendous potential given the level of recoverable resources that over this year has transformed from a dream into reality. Based on that strength, we expect to turn into world-class shale player, beating our record in oil and gas production. While at the same time, becoming a relevant exporter of crude oil [indiscernible] by 2030. If we manage to do this, we will transform into structural positive free cash flow generator with a strong financial profile, allowing…

Margarita Chun

Operator

Thank you, Horacio, and thanks, everyone, for listening to our presentation. Now we may start with a Q&A session. Our first question comes from Luiz Carvalho from UBS.

Luiz Carvalho

Analyst

Can you hear me?

Margarita Chun

Operator

Yes. We can hear you. Yes.

Luiz Carvalho

Analyst

Okay. Perfect. Thank you for the very interesting presentation that you just provided with lots of details and pleasure to meet you, Horacio, Federico, Maximiliano and all the IR team. If I may -- I'll state -- to start to 2 questions here. The first one is, maybe Horacio, if you can share a couple of thoughts on the relationship between the company and the controlling shareholder, that has been, I would say, one of the main topics of attention from investors in most of the Latin American companies. And of course, YPF is super embedded in this process. So I would like to understand about the relationship between the company, the management and the controlling shareholder. The second one, I'm not going to be too specific, but you presented a very broad plan with lots of details. I just would like to know from your perspective, what are the main challenges that you face over the -- to the next 2 years, will be the -- let say, the price adjustments on the downstream, bottlenecks on the onshore production. So just trying to understand where you see the main challenges within this plan.

Horacio Marin

Management

Okay. Thank you, Luiz, for your question. First question, YPF as you know, is a major oil gas company in Argentina and is the leader of the energy sector. Therefore, has an important role in energy sector. All we work with -- all the governments, all the states and all the unions and all the industry. And so I think we are working very hard and very well with all the sector so far. In the second question, you are saying what I am -- what are my thoughts, there are several. And this program is, if you see it's like, it's all tight, it's all tight. This year, we are focusing this venture of the mature fields and also to build the debottlenecking in Vaca Muerta, what is the Vaca Muerta Sur, the Vaca Muerta Sur oil pipe. And with this oil pipe, as I mentioned before, it will be the final debottlenecking of Vaca Muerta. So all the industry will be available to only invest and increase the production.

Margarita Chun

Operator

I don't know, Luiz, if we answered your question. Okay. So our next question comes from Bruno Montanari from Morgan Stanley. [Operator Instructions]

Bruno Montanari

Analyst

Thank you for the presentation. And very interesting to see the details of the new strategic plan, very exciting growth ahead. Some changes with the divestments as well. There are 2 questions. One, I wanted to explore a little bit, the divestment effort. So if we think about, say, the next few years through 2027, is there a financial target you expect to raise from selling the upstream and these affiliated companies? So any type of financial magnitude you could share with us would be super interesting. I found [ good news ], that it's a lot of production, you're willing to divest, but yet, it's 1% of EBITDA only. So are you seeing interest from third parties to look at those assets? And are those Argentine companies? So what can they do better that would make the market attracted to the assets? And then the second question is about the LNG project. I understand this is very long term, and the bulk of the CapEx is going to come in the outer years. But can you share with us your expected IRR levels for investing in these projects, vis-a-vis investing in your core sale of hubs? So I wanted to try to understand what the differential of returns are on LNG.

Horacio Marin

Management

Okay. The first one is a little longer. But I can say for the mature fields, we think that we are going to finish the process during this year. And they are -- from now on, we see a lot of interest in Argentina for different -- more small companies than YPF, and it will be a good process and there will be very transparency with the bank. And we envision that this year, we will finish all the process. And that will be very important for YPF to increase our profitable by dollar. The second question in LNG IRR, I cannot give you because this is -- I can tell you that it's very competitive in the worldwide scale. That is the only thing, and I apologize but I cannot tell you exactly the figure number. The other thing, I think it's important for you to know, that we call the Argentine LNG project because it will be done by all the Argentine industry. So we will get a good scale, economical scale in all the infrastructure and all the investment. So that's why we make this kind of project, a bigger project than YPF can manage but they will be for all the Argentine gas players. And so we improved the efficiency and the internal rate of return for everybody.

Margarita Chun

Operator

Thank you so much, Horacio. Our next question comes from Walter Chiarvesio from Santander. [Operator Instructions] We still cannot hear you. We can test. Okay. So you may continue now.

Walter Chiarvesio

Analyst

Yes, sorry.

Margarita Chun

Operator

Now we can hear you.

Walter Chiarvesio

Analyst

Okay, sorry. Probably digging deeper on details, 2 things. One is related to the exit in the mature fields is I probably missed the details, but in your comments, but this is partnering with new companies, doesn't mean that YPF will get out totally from the fields, only that CapEx will be done by partners. Secondly, this plan entails returning blocks to the provinces because there were news in the media regarding complaints of governor saying that they wouldn't accept that companies or YPF specifically leaves the blocks such like that. And if that entails for example, environmental liability costs or things that we should take into account. And this $800 million [ capital ] release is for the next year, I mean, it's $800 million per year. I missed that. That is on one side. And the last part of my question on CapEx is downstream $900 million in 2024, is that -- that should be [ standing ] over the years? So this -- the last part of the revamping that you have been making since last year?

Horacio Marin

Management

Okay. Thank you very much for your question, Walter. I will pass to Max because you make -- ask a big detail. The only thing I will answer you that this is not like farming or is going out of the areas or the fields, okay? It will be the different way. Also, there is something that you are asking that we are always discussing with the governance and the unions, and we are in very, very good shape. The -- what you read in the newspaper is what you read in the newspaper, but it's like there could be different ways to go out of the area. There could be selling some and also, I don't know the name in English, [indiscernible]?

Walter Chiarvesio

Analyst

Reverting.

Horacio Marin

Management

It's not reverting because it's transferred to some province company. And the other you say that we take into account everything in the selling, okay? This our goal and the way to go out is a clean exit. So now for more detail, I pass to Max.

Maximiliano Westen

Management

Thank you, Horacio. Yes, definitely. We are still -- we are doing the prework. And in that prework, we're going to hire a bank. We are in the process of finishing that up, and we will know who we are going to be working with within the next 1 or 2 weeks, our expectations are to go out to the market by the end of March. And during the third quarter, we should have offers. We're going to test the market. We should have the offers. And like Horacio mentioned, we want to close these transactions within this year. So with that said, I think that which blocks we're going to sell to the market or other players in which we're going to revert back to the provinces, it's confidential. But like Horacio commented, we're going to seek either a clean exit when we transfer to other players or we're going to negotiate with the province in order to comply to whatever outstanding [Foreign Language] commitment we have. Sorry, I don't know if there was another question, yes, regarding downstream CapEx. I think that, yes, this year, we're still finishing up the big investments that we are doing in our 2 main refineries are to adapt those to the low sulfur content. And this we're going to finished by the -- and gasoline by the end of this year and diesel by the end -- by next year. And also adapting our refineries to the new reality, which is the crude of Vaca Muerta, it's growing. So we need to be prepared in order to be efficient in our refineries, we need to be prepared to refine lighter crude oil. So that's why the level of CapEx is still at those levels that you commented this year, but sometime down the road in the next -- it should go lower to the $500 million per year. That's not including the midstream efforts. As Horacio commented a couple of minutes ago during the presentation, we're going to -- we are still in the process of debottlenecking in Vaca Muerta and those bring -- those have additional CapEx efforts in particularly in Vaca Muerta Sur and the Vaca Muerta Sur system.

Margarita Chun

Operator

Thank you, Horacio, and thank you, Max. And thank you, Walter, for the question. [Operator Instructions] And our next question comes from Daniel Guardiola from BTG Pactual. [Operator Instructions]

Daniel Guardiola

Analyst

Thank you, Margarita. And great to meet you Horacio, Federico, Maximiliano. Okay. Great. I have a couple of questions, and one is regarding the very comprehensive strategic plan that you just announced. And I wanted to know if within that plan, if you are including inorganic growth in Vaca Muerta. And being more specific, I would like to know if you're taking a look at the assets that Exxon is currently disposing in Vaca Muerta. So that will be my first question. My second question is related to the debottlenecking projects that I mentioned Horacio, many projects to evacuate oil from Vaca Muerta to the Atlantic Shore and to eventually further increase the exports of oil. And I wanted to know what are the main risks that you think you're going to face when trying to deploy all these new infrastructure? And connected to this, you did mention now the project Vaca Muerta Sur. But I learned this week, you know that [indiscernible] announcing the [ Tripica ] project. And I wanted to know if those 2 [ place ] are complementary, if they are competing with each other or if both are going to happen. And just after one, if I may squeeze. Can you share with us what is the expected trajectory of your total EBITDA generation for the next 3, 4 years?

Horacio Marin

Management

Okay. Thank you, Daniel, for your 3 questions, 2 questions. Okay. The -- sorry, I'm looking for your video, and I was not looking at the video that you see me, okay? So they are [ cheating ] me here. Okay. The first question. We are here all the management, the new and all the management that we are here. Our goal is to maximize the value of all the shareholders. Therefore, we are growing in Vaca Muerta organic or inorganic. If the inorganic, has more internal rate of return than the organic, we are going to follow that to improve the profitability of our shareholders. That is the first question. The second question was about the debottleneck. And you see the [indiscernible] and Vaca Muerta Sur. The Vaca Muerta Sur is the one that we are going to follow, and there are all the industry that is follow us because it's a big pipeline, they can improve the capacity to 800,000 barrels per day. And also it will be in a new port that we can sell the vessel of 2 million barrels per day, so reducing the discount of the crude oil for export. So we are focusing on this project. The third question, and thank you for that question because if not, Federico were not talking so far. So I pass through Federico.

Federico Barroetave

Management

Daniel, on EBITDA, let's say, we expect this year to be stronger than last year, considering the increases in prices and also considering that within this year, we should have an overall cost measured in dollar terms lower than last year. But as I said, we are expecting a stronger EBITDA for 2024.

Margarita Chun

Operator

Thank you, Horacio, and thank you, Federico. Our next question comes from Guido [indiscernible] from [ Alaria ]. [Operator Instructions] Okay. So we may move on to the next person and then come back to Guido. Our next question comes from Marina Mertens from Latin Securities. [Operator Instructions]

Marina Mertens

Analyst

Thank you. Thank you for the presentation.

Margarita Chun

Operator

Yes, we can hear you.

Marina Mertens

Analyst

You can hear me?

Horacio Marin

Management

Yes, go ahead.

Marina Mertens

Analyst

Okay. Okay. Perfect. I have 2 questions. So the first one, given the conventional assets currently account for roughly half of YPF's crude oil production, and then they would eventually be exiting your portfolio. What changes in the supply strategy of the refineries after this divestment? And the second one is considering that the peso has strengthened over this first quarter, where do prices advance stand in terms of our parity? And what trends are you observing costs?

Horacio Marin

Management

The first question I think is the production of the conventional that the mature field is 60% of the conventional, 60% of all the production. And we will balance with the growth of Vaca Muerta, you will see in future that we surpassed in the future. I'm not saying when, easily than production. The second question, remember, when you told that there is a reduction in the churn rate, you are talking about the blue or the CCL. The other is not reducing, its increasing 2% per month. So know that there is a change in that way. The -- we are, as I mentioned in the presentation, we are close. We envision that during this year, we will reach the international markets. And with the -- I don't know, I think there is something more you're talking about the operating cost, if I'm not wrong, okay? Yes.

Marina Mertens

Analyst

Yes.

Horacio Marin

Management

In the operating cost, if you see average year-by-year, we are going to reduce. But if you see next year when we are going out of the mature field the reduction of cost per barrel will be important, I would say.

Margarita Chun

Operator

Thank you, Horacio. And thank you, Marina, for the question. Our next question comes from David [ Parvo ] of Puente. [Operator Instructions]

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Can you hear me?

Margarita Chun

Operator

Yes, we can hear you.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Perfect. Well, thank you for having me. Most of my questions have been answered, but I have one regarding maybe the previous one. I was -- prices against import parity. Are you expecting to -- are you targeting a gap to the import parity for 2024. That's the first question. And the second one is, what are the stages you need to follow in order for the LNG project to be a reality, let's say, like what are the different steps that becomes a reality.

Horacio Marin

Management

I didn't understand at the beginning it was here something that I couldn't hear very well between the price. There was one word I couldn't hear.

Maximiliano Westen

Management

I think he was asking if we are targeting a specific gap between prices and the import parity.

Horacio Marin

Management

That will be our commercial policy. Sorry, I cannot give you because if not the other [indiscernible] and the other action they will know what will be our target. We are focusing to reach during the year, the export parity of crude because Argentina is supportive of crude and our ceiling is the import parity product and our show will be to increase for all the shareholders, the margin of the refinery. This is our show -- sorry, show, and that's why we are here. And in the LNG detail, I will pass to Max that he was involved a lot in projects.

Maximiliano Westen

Management

Thank you, Horacio. So the next steps in the LNG project we are moving into the [ FEED ] stage. We need to develop the engineering. There are several packages of engineering. So during most of this year and most of -- yes, a big part of next year, we're going to be working on engineering. We are targeting to FID the first stage of our project by mid or second half of 2025. In parallel, there are many things that need to move forward. Of course, we're going to be opened for additional partners. Also, we're going to be working on the project financing and in parallel, also a, there's a lot of permitting and environmental pre-work that needs to be performed. So I think that all of this is what we're going to be working on the next 1.5 years, 18 months or so.

Margarita Chun

Operator

Thank you, Horacio and Max. Since we are -- we have been extending some minutes more. We are going to take the last question. So the last question will come from Leo Marcondes from Bank of America. [Operator Instructions]

Leonardo Marcondes

Analyst

Can you hear me?

Margarita Chun

Operator

Yes, we can hear you.

Leonardo Marcondes

Analyst

Okay. Okay. Great. So my first question is regarding the lifting costs. You guys showed to us that you expect reduction in lifting costs at the conventional assets to $16 from $25 per barrel, right? So how do you guys expect to decrease these lifting costs via potential divestment and keep the best conventional assets? Or do you expect to sell your entire conventional asset base? My second question here is more of a follow-up here on the LNG question. Just to understand maybe a bit better. We understand that you guys still need a regulatory framework. So you guys can move on with the FID and so on, right? But do you guys have already started discussing this with the government or something like this? Or is it still a very initial phase so far?

Horacio Marin

Management

Okay. I will pass to Max, but first, I will tell you that the reduction in [Technical Difficulty]

Maximiliano Westen

Management

Good. Hello. Okay. I'll resume. I'll start over. Sorry for the technical inconvenience. But Horacio, you put it together very good. It's a combination. First, the impact of selling the mature fields. That doesn't mean that we are not going to have conventional projects. We're just going to keep the ones, I wouldn't say the better ones, but the most profitable and also it's not only about profitability, but also materiality. We're going to keep those projects and we're going to develop. And those we think we can add value, and also hard work and efficiencies in our unconventional field. So it's a combination of those 2 factors. Regarding the -- of course, yes, thank you for asking. I forgot when I was talking before about what we're going to be working on in parallel. Of course, the bill -- sorry, the LNG project needs long-term visibility and long-term visibility means that -- sorry, means long-term visibility and also our tax packages that is competitive at a global level. The bill that the government is working on, I think it provides for both -- and definitely, this -- we will need to have it in place to have FID. Otherwise, it's going to be very challenging to have a profitable project also, not necessary to comment that project financing would be off the table, I think, if we cannot provide for this long-term visibility.

Horacio Marin

Management

But there is like an agreement between all the governments and also the national government to pass those law to increase the investment in Argentina. And LNG, I can tell you that it's like the project, all the politicians, all the companies for Argentina. So we are positive that we will end up with a good result.

Margarita Chun

Operator

Thank you so much, Max and Horacio. We apologize, everyone, for the technical inconvenience. And thank you for joining today's presentation. Keep in mind that we have uploaded the full complete presentation at our website, you may find there. Thank you for joining today. Please, we can close today's presentation. Thank you so much. Have a good day.