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YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF)

Q2 2025 Earnings Call· Fri, Aug 8, 2025

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Transcript

Margarita Chun

Management

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Margarita Chun, YPF IR Manager. Thank you for joining us today in our second quarter 2025 earnings call. Today's presentation will be conducted by our Chairman and CEO, Mr. Horacio Marin; our CFO, Mr. Federico Barroetave; and our Strategy, New Businesses and Controlling VP, Mr. Maximiliano Westen. During the presentation, we will go through the main aspects and events that explain the quarter results, and then we will open the floor for Q&A session together with our management. Before we begin, please consider our cautionary statement on Slide 2. Our remarks today and answers to your questions may include forward-looking statements. which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from the expectations contemplated by these remarks. Our financial figures are stated in accordance with IFRS, but during the presentation, we might discuss some non-IFRS measures such as adjusted EBITDA. I will now turn the call over to Horacio. Please go ahead.

Horacio Daniel Marin

Management

Thank you, Margarita, and good morning, everyone. Despite international price volatility, we delivered not only solid results in Q2, but also significant progress in our 4x4 plan by achieving key remarkable milestones. This quarter's volatility actually demonstrated the right direction and implicit value of our 4x4 plan outlined since December '23. During this quarter, the international oil market experienced significant volatility with low prices. As a result, our realization price of oil decreased by 12% sequentially. Our shale oil production remained largely unchanged even after selling our 49% stake in Aguada del Chañar, which decreased its contribution by 6,000 barrels a day. Moreover, during July, we have just achieved record high production of roughly 165,000 barrels a day. In fact, on Tuesday, the production -- the daily production was 163,800 barrels a day. Despite the challenging context, our continued delivery on our 4x4 plan substantially mitigated this negative price environment. During this quarter, we reached key milestone in divesting program of mature field, particularly in Santa Cruz. As a material result of this pressure, we can show a 24% interannual reduction in our lifting costs. Another key milestone was achieved financial closing at VMOS. After 18 months of hard work and dedication today, I would like to share with you the remarkable progress we achieved in our 4x4 plan, delivering important results across all our four strategic pillars, especially since our last call in May. As we have always said, our first pillar is to focus on our most profitable business, oil Vaca Muerta. We have continued to expand our shale oil operations and made significant progress in advancing midstream infrastructure projects to support future growth. YPF as the largest shale oil producer in Argentina continues to deliver solid performance. Back in November '23, YPF oil production was 110,000 barrels…

Maximiliano Pedro Westen

Management

Thank you, Horacio, and hello to everyone. Focusing on the Upstream segment, the second quarter total hydrocarbon production was 546,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. It remained stable both sequentially and interannually. Shale production keeps driving the growth, now representing an impressive 62% of the total output. It nearly offset the divestment of mature fields and to a minor extent, the lower working interest in Aguada del Chañar. In the case of mature fields, hydrocarbon production decreased by 26% versus the previous quarter as we kept divesting them. It recorded 72,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, representing only 13% of the second quarter total production. Crude oil production amounted to 248,000 barrels per day in the second quarter, decreasing 8% sequentially. it was primarily driven by lower mature fields and to a lesser extent, Aguada del Chañar, as explained before. Interannually, while total crude oil production remained stable, the remarkable 28% expansion in shale output fully offset the decrease in exposure to mature fields. Let me mention that last month's shale oil production was approximately 165,000 barrels per day. We expect continuing significant growth in the second half of the year to achieve our 2025 annual target of over 165,000 barrels per day. Oil exports in the second quarter totaled 44,000 barrels per day, increasing by 20% sequentially. The main growth came from redirecting Escalante heavy oil to the foreign market as La Plata refinery was under program maintenance. Interannually, it grew by 43%, also boosted by Shell expansions. Natural gas production increased by 6% in the second quarter sequentially to 40 million cubic meters per day, primarily supported by higher seasonal demand. NGL production was 48,000 barrels per day, a modest growth of 2% sequentially, driven by higher associated gas output in certain shale oil blocks. Total…

Federico Luis Barroetave

Management

Thank you, Max. Switching to the financials. Let's start with the cash flow evolution. In Q2, we posted a negative free cash flow of $365 million, mainly explained by the performance and closing agreements of mature fields. They recorded an adjusted EBITDA loss of $126 million and one-off cash flow loss for almost $190 million. Moreover, our subsidiaries, Metrogas and AESA paid income tax, while the regular debt service remained stable. On the other hand, the dividend collection from our affiliates, net of contributions and prepayments mostly offset the negative working capital. The latter was mainly explained by higher seasonal gas sales and payroll. In the same line, exports of agricultural products grew, boosted by reduced export duties. As a summary, for the first half of the year, we recorded a negative free cash flow of $1.3 billion, mainly explained by the impact of mature fields. These assets recorded an adjusted EBITDA loss of over $230 million and a negative one-off cash flow for around $420 million totaling an aggregate of $650 million. In addition, year-to-date, we disbursed a net amount of roughly $210 million in M&A activity, mainly the acquisition of Sierra Chata. Therefore, during this six-month period, the proxy free cash flow, excluding mature fields and M&A activity was $460 million negative, which is mostly explained by the regular interest payment for roughly $320 million and income tax payments from our subsidiaries for around $100 million. Now in terms of Q2 financing, we ended with $8.8 billion of net debt, representing a net leverage ratio of 1.9x as anticipated during our Investor Day in April. During this quarter, we issued a $204 million linked bond and $140 million hard dollar bond. The first one was with a 15-month tenure at 3.95% and the second one with a 2-year…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Tasso Vasconcellos with UBS.

Tasso Sousa Vasconcellos

Analyst

I would like Horacio, to get a broader update on the development plans that you guys have planned ahead. The company just announced the acquisition of this block that you mentioned during the presentation. How does that impact the current production plan for the upcoming years? And how do you view the risks of an increased development plan amid an already accelerated plan that you guys have released before? And in parallel, Horacio, you recently said in an interview that you view the acceleration in the CapEx in Vaca Muerta. Can you also give some additional feedback on the view of yours? Those are my two questions here.

Horacio Daniel Marin

Management

Why we bought that is because this field is one of the best field in the north of Vaca Muerta, where the type well is more, I would say, if you see from different consultants, the average production of UR of wells for all Vaca Muerta is in order of 1 million. But if you see this area, it could be 1.5 million or more. So that means that it's more profitable than anyone else. They are in the very, I would say, sweet spot as in the United States, they want to say. What is the affect? Nothing. Because it's good. We are going to make more money for you. And so we are going to prioritize with shell for sure, to go very quickly because it will be one of the best fields as rentability of Argentina. I don't know if I answered the question or you need more detail.

Tasso Sousa Vasconcellos

Analyst

It's clear.

Horacio Daniel Marin

Management

Okay. Thank you.

Tasso Sousa Vasconcellos

Analyst

From you on this interview that you recently gave on this potential deceleration on Vaca Muerta activities as a whole?

Horacio Daniel Marin

Management

Okay. Why I say that in an interview because they asked me in an interview, but it's no YPF. It's not the problem for us to do that. So we are delivering what we say. And in everything that we say in 4x4, we have delivered. I answer at that moment because there are people say in the market of Argentina, they said there will be a reduction in some number of rigs, but it's no YPF. So I think it's not, I would say, not logic and fair that I would say which company is reducing the rigs, okay?

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Leonardo Marcondes with Bank of America.

Leonardo Marcondes

Analyst · Bank of America.

I have two from my end. The first one is regarding the new Andes project. Could you provide some color on your expectations in terms of timing for the conclusion of the whole Phase 1? And also some more details on Phase 2 on what is the total production to be divested from? What is it EBITDA representativeness? And also your expectations in terms of conclusion for the second phase as well? My second question is regarding the export tariff for oil, right? We have recently seen the government reducing the export tariff for other segments. So is there any expectation or discussion with the government to reduce the export tariff for oil as well in the short term?

Horacio Daniel Marin

Management

Okay. Thanks for the question. Let's go by number one, And. And one. In -- and one, we are finishing. There is only one block that is in Rio Negro that is the expectation. They have to be approved by the government of Rio Negro, but is in the final phase, and we are out totally out. When there is something that I have to explain for you that Andes where we sell, we sold everything. But there were two provinces that is one is in Santa Cruz that we are out now because we are no more the owners of the blocks. We are operating for up to December at most but we operate for the province company, okay, because they don't have the people to do that, okay? But we are out there. In Tierra del Fuego, that is very small comparing with Santa Cruz, very, very small. We are -- I think next week, we can have -- maybe we can have good news because we are in the last phases to agree with the province, okay? That is Andes 1. What is Andes 2? Andes 2 is all the conventional blocks that we have left because remember, if you see some interviews, I say that the goal of all the people that work in YPF in the management is to be unconventional company next year. And so now we are delivering and to sell what you can call core conventional fields that they have good result for conventionals, okay? But why we do that? Because we can make more money as you realize that we have a good portfolio to invest in Vaca Muerta. And so this one that they have lifting cost that is more than $20 per barrel is no priority. I don't know how to see Priority for us because of the profitability. And so there is all the others is in Chubut or in Mendoza and in Salta. There are oil and gas. The production of all the assets is in the order of 50,000 barrels a day production of us is 2 million cubic meter per day. The EBITDA of all of this is in the order of 8% at 2024, okay? And I think I answered the question or I left something. There is a second one. I work -- I am a guy that work in a private company. I'm not the guy that regulate the Argentina tariff or export tariffs. I don't know that you have to ask to the government.

Leonardo Marcondes

Analyst · Bank of America.

Very, very clear, Horacio. Just a follow-up on the first question. Regarding the second phase in terms of production and EBITDA representativeness, what should be the impact on the company?

Horacio Daniel Marin

Management

I said maybe because my English maybe is not good, I know that, okay? But it doesn't matter. The production is 50,000 barrels a day of all together and the production of oil. The production of gas is 2 million cubic meters per day. The EBITDA for all that in figures of 2024 that you have is the ordering of 8%. It was more clear.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Matías Cattaruzzi with Adcap. Matías Cattaruzzi: I have a question about the CapEx guidance. You gave us this $5.0 billion to $5.2 billion guidance with a Brent of $7 per barrel. Are you planning on changing that or adjusting it in the upcoming quarters?

Horacio Daniel Marin

Management

Okay. No, we are not going to change. And also, if you look at our figures, we are very, very close to what is our budget, and we are going to continue. Matías Cattaruzzi: Okay. And then could you provide an update of the equity contributions to Vaca Muerta del Sur for the upcoming two years?

Horacio Daniel Marin

Management

The equity, I will pass to Federico. They are in charge of all the financing.

Federico Luis Barroetave

Management

Matías, Well, basically, after the financial close of VMOS based on a total investment of $3.1 billion for the project and a 70% debt- to-equity ratio. The total number for our share of the equity will be in the range of $230 million, out of which close to $75 million, $76 million have been already contributed up to June. So the remaining amount will be $155 million until COD. I will say that at least $50 million will come along 2025 and the rest mainly concentrated in 2026. That will be our disbursement of VMOS equity.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Juan Muñoz with BTG. Juan José Muñoz: The first one is a follow-up of the divesting of the conventional assets. So regarding the proceeds that you expect with fully divesting those assets, if you could provide us an estimation of those proceeds? That's my first question. And the second one is regarding the recent acquisition of the Shell assets from TotalEnergies more a strategic question is, how are you seeing the competitive M&A landscape in Vaca Muerta in the recent months? So that's my two questions.

Horacio Daniel Marin

Management

First question, okay, thank you. I cannot answer. Imagine that if I say what is our expectation, it will be in all the newspaper tomorrow. I cannot tell you that, okay? But we think that it's a good number because they are very good assets, but I cannot tell you exactly the number, okay? With all our selling, I really think that we are going to get much more than the total acquisition, okay? That is something that I think I can answer you, okay? Regarding -- I cannot -- I don't know if I can understand what you say competitive landscape. In which sense? Juan José Muñoz: How are you seeing the competition regarding the current assets that are available for sale in Vaca Muerta right now?

Horacio Daniel Marin

Management

Okay. Okay. But I think there are not a lot more. The company that we have all the -- now all the assets, they are all focused in the development, okay? It could be another company or it could be changed, it's normal, but we don't see that there are more during the -- it seems that there's no more during this year at least, okay?

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Bruno Montanari with Morgan Stanley.

Bruno Amorim

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

I have one follow-up and one question. On the -- coming back to the Total acquisition, can you share with us maybe the time line for when you would start to invest in the area? And if there is any CapEx expectation? Just like a quick math, if it's a 500 well inventory at around, say, $14 million or $15 million per well over the full development, it would be at least around $7.5 billion in CapEx. So I just wanted to know if that makes sense and what type of facilities you would potentially have to invest as well? And the second question is maybe to on the financial side. When we look at 2026, the company has some concentration of maturities, especially in domestic bonds. So when would you start to work on the refinancing of the '26 maturities?

Horacio Daniel Marin

Management

Okay. I will answer the first, and Federico will answer the second, okay? With the Total acquisition, our partner is Shell is Shell and the province company, [ CMP ]. We are going to have a meeting with them to decide the development, okay, because we are partners. So I cannot say exactly there. We are going to prioritize as much as we can if necessary facilities. And also, we are talking with companies that are near there. So you can get, if you know Vaca Muerta to have synergy in the plants, in the CPF, okay? So there, everybody, we can reduce the investment per barrel. That is our idea, okay? The second question, I pass to Federico.

Federico Luis Barroetave

Management

Bruno, so looking for refinancing, first, we need to work on, let's say, what we have for the rest of the year. Our total, let's say, refinancing and acquisition finance now for $500 million to be done in this -- in other words, we have $1.1 billion of additional debt to be acquired until the end of the year. For the acquisition finance, we already issued a bond last month in the local market for $167 million. So more than 30% of the total acquisition is already funded. The rest we have acquisition finance committed. And the rest, I think that will be mostly in the local market. Now looking at the tower of financing that we have for 2026, we have $2.3 billion, out of which more than 50% is local and refinancing and only $350 million are international bonds depending. So we are going to be looking at the opportunities that we have in the local markets and in the international market. starting, I will say, from the last year of this year and also entering into early beginning of next year as, for example, as we did in January of 2025. But bear in mind that more than 50% of the refinancing required is coming from local bonds. I'm sorry. And so far, we have been very successful in refinancing locally. We just together with the dollar bond that we issued last month, we issued another dollar bond for $250 million. So in total, it was $417 million. That is the highest bond ever in the local market. So there is a growing appetite for our paper in the local market.

Operator

Operator

The company appreciates the question. But since we are running out of time, we're going to accept one last question from Andres Cardona with Citigroup. Andres Felipe Cardona Gómez: On the capital allocation team, I just wonder if you could provide any update about assets that are for divestiture excluding the Andes project. Maybe you can walk us through the rationale of the strategy of the discounts on the downstream business during nights, how it improves profitability or increased volumes, I don't know, just help us to understand the rationale from a profitability perspective.

Horacio Daniel Marin

Management

One question because I understand [indiscernible] [Foreign Language].

Margarita Chun

Management

[Foreign Language]

Horacio Daniel Marin

Management

Okay. Thank you. Now I can answer. The first question, besides Andres, I said in the media several times. There is also Metrogas, we will reach the extension that is expected to be this year. And after we are going to be in the market. And also, there is another one small refinery that we are trying to go out from there with the [ Refinol ] Even that refinery is not refining now, but it's close, but we are seeing how we can go out if we can, okay? And the second one, you didn't deny is lovely what we are doing because you have to come here to see what we did. It's amazing. It's unique. I would say unique in Spanish world, it's unique. I don't know it's in someone else. We have E&I for everything in cars, everything that you want. And we see the demand for each gas pump. You hear me each gas pump around all Argentina. So we are doing the same as you were, okay? So it depends on demand. It depends on ours, and that's why we are trying to get more, more profit to YPF. Why at 9? Because after we decide and we start seeing something that nobody knows in minute by minute, we realized at 9, after midnight, there is a very low demand, which is logical because it's logical. And people sleep. So we realize that there, our profitability at the gas station is negative. What is also logic and you have to reduce that to make more -- reduce your loss because that is an essential service. You cannot close because it's by law. And also it's logical that you have to be opening at 9. So what we did is to reduce and it's amazing the response of the people because our market share increased a lot. And our -- in one month, we reduced the loss at half. And our incremental demand during the night is more than 30% around all Argentina, all Argentina. And also there is some probably that they are more in elastic and there are more -- other than much more elastic. And so we are playing with that. It's amazing. I will love. I'm not doing that job. But if I work 25, I would like to work there. Really, I want to work more there than I was working in my life at the beginning of my career in reservoir. I tell you that it's amazing what they are doing those rides.

Operator

Operator

That concludes our Q&A session. I'll now turn the conference back over to Horacio Marin for closing remarks.

Horacio Daniel Marin

Management

Okay. Thank you very much for all the questions. Really, we are proud of what we are doing in YPF. We are working very hard. In fact, I am today with infection, and I was coming all day long, all day week with infection because I love to be in YPF. I love what we are doing. I like what people are response in the profitability in all the company. And so thank you very much, and we will see in three months. But no see. We will be talking three months, okay?

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.