Earnings Labs

Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM)

Q3 2019 Earnings Call· Wed, Oct 30, 2019

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. And welcome to the Yum! Brands, Q3 2019 Earnings Release Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker’s remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to our speaker today, Keith Siegner, Vice President, Investor Relations, M&A and Treasurer. Thank you. You may begin.

Keith Siegner

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us. On our call today are Greg Creed, our CEO; David Gibbs, our President and Chief Operating Officer; Chris Turner, our Chief Financial Operating Officer; and Dave Russell, our Senior Vice President and Corporate Controller. Following remarks from Greg, David and Chris, we’ll open the call to questions. Before we get started, I'd like to remind you that this conference call includes forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to future events and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those statements. All forward-looking statements should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary statements in our earnings release and the risk factors included in our filings with the SEC. In addition, please refer to our earnings releases and relevant sections of our filings with the SEC to find disclosures and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures that may be used on today’s call. Please note the following regarding our basis of presentation for today’s call. First, all system sales results exclude the impact of foreign currency. Second, Pizza Hut Division and Worldwide system sales and net new unit growth include the benefit of the increase in units in the fourth quarter of 2018 related to our strategic alliance with Telepizza. Same-store sales growth reflects the inclusion of Telepizza in the prior year base. Third, core operating profit growth figures exclude the impact of foreign currency and special items. Fourth, the lease accounting standard was prospectively adopted on January 1st, 2019. As a reminder, this is a GAAP required change, resulting in the recognition of operating lease assets and liabilities on the balance sheet. We do not expect a change in our income statement or cash flows as a result of this accounting change. And last, please note that 2019 results will include a 53rd week. We’re broadcasting this call via our website. This call is also being recorded and will be available for playback. Please be advised that if you ask a question, it will be included in both our live conference and in any future use of the recording. We’d like to make you aware of the following changes in upcoming Yum! investor events. Disclosures pertaining to outstanding debt in our Restricted Group capital structure will be provided at the time of the Form 10-Q filing. Fourth quarter 2019 earnings will be released on February 6, 2019, with a conference call on the same day. Now, I’d like to turn the call over to Mr. Greg Creed.

Greg Creed

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Thank you, Keith. And good morning, everyone. Following a very strong first half and in line with our expectations, third quarter results were healthy and consistent with our long-term growth model. Yum! delivered third quarter system sales growth of 8%, including 3% same-store sales growth and 7% net new unit growth. While we’re pleased with our results, we know there is always work to be done. I’d like to begin today's call with a few opening remarks, before I hand it over to Chris, who will go over our third quarter results and Unrivaled Culture & Talent. Then David will discuss our four growth drivers, Relevant Easy and Distinctive Brands as we say RED for short; Bold Restaurant Development; Unmatched Franchise Operating Capability; and then some additional news on culture and talent. Now to start at the top, I am confident that the Board and I have identified the best and most capable person to lead the next phase of growth for Yum!. We’re delighted that David will officially take over as CEO in January. David has been a fantastic partner to me throughout our transformation these past few years. We’ve always shared an unwavering belief in people, their development and our culture and we’ll continue to invest in making Yum! the best place to work. I am also immensely proud of the progress we've made by making both the Taco Bell and the KFC brands RED and accelerating the pace of global unit development. But, there is always unfinished business. And for us that unfinished business includes consistently enhancing the customer experience by ensuring that we have the best people technology and assets. And this unfinished business is probably most pronounced at Pizza Hut U.S. I am proud of Artie Starrs and his team as they continue to make…

Chris Turner

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Thank you, Greg. And good morning, everyone. Today I’ll discuss our third quarter results and our remaining transformation initiatives. To begin the results. Core operating profit grew 6% and as Greg mentioned Yum! delivered system sales growth of 8%, same-store sales growth of 3% and net new unit growth of 7%. A major contributor to this success was KFC, our largest division in units and profit contribution with 3% same-store sales growth and 6% net new unit growth driving 8% system sales growth in the quarter. Similarly, Taco Bell had another great quarter with 7% system sales growth driven by 4% for both same-store sales and net new unit growth. I’ll now update you on our 2019 EPS outlook and the moving pieces that will impact our reported results versus adjusted EPS guidance all of which is outlined in a table within our earnings release. First, there is no change to our goal to deliver at least $3.75 in 2019 adjusted EPS which we introduced in 2016. Second, as a reminder the $3.75 excludes any benefit from the 53rd week in 2019, the impact of changes in FX rates and any special items or any gains or losses for marking to market our Grubhub investment. We estimate the benefit of the 53rd week to 2019 to be approximately $0.06. Our updated estimate of the impact of FX rate movements is now a $0.12 headwind to the $3.75 figure. This is because rates have moved against us since we provided the original guidance in October of 2016. This estimated headwind is based on applying current forward rates to local currency forecast which will undoubtedly vary over time. Year-to-date 2019 special items are a $0.02 tailwind and year-to-date Grubhub mark-to-market adjustments are a $0.14 headwind to the $3.75 figure, respectively. Taking these…

David Gibbs

Analyst · Dennis Geiger with UBS

Thank you Chris. We’ll conclude our call today with an update on our on our growth drivers; relevant, easy and distinctive brands; bold restaurant development; unmatched franchise operating capability and unrivaled culture and talent. I'll start with our RED brands. KFC delivered its 17th consecutive quarter of positive same-store sales growth. This global powerhouse continues to show broad-based strength from standout -- with standout performances across many of our largest markets. This translated into division system sales growth of 8% with same-store sales growth of 3% and net new unit growth of 6%. International callouts include India, SOPAC, Latin America and our Russia business unit which includes Central and Eastern Europe. India delivered 7% same-store sales growth driven by distinctive marketing, promotion of the Zinger Burger and consistent value with the ultimate savings bucket. Australia continues to impress with 8% same-store sales growth, their best quarter in recent history. Drivers included the successful Hot Rods promotion and delivery. Russia, Central and Eastern Europe posted a strong 7% same-store sales growth owing to a Bucket for $1 value promotion and the Finger Lickin' Good spin on a Taco -- Locos Tacos. In the U.S. same-store sales declined 1% in the quarter. We had a temporary loss of momentum with the Chitos Sandwich promotion which led to the quarter's decline. However our value promotion of 2 for $6 Mix 'n' Match provided us with a new channel for à la carte menu items and the quarter brought us many valuable insights to improve future performance. We made a splash with plant-based fried chicken alternatives with Beyond Nuggets and Beyond Boneless Wings. The results were very positive. We sold out in five hours and generated $2 billion worth of media impressions - two billion media impressions. Then at the end of the quarter,…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of John Glass with Morgan Stanley.

John Glass

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Thanks. Good morning and congratulations Greg. And thanks for the funny accent along the way. Can we just talk a little bit about the Pizza Hut business and sort of your outlook? One you talked about some disruption that maybe possible during this period of time, can you be specific about that? Is that sort of lower engagement and franchisees starting to be closing stores? Or what is the nature of that? Two, is there an opportunity for the company again to sort of step in either as an intermediary or as provide some temporary support from advertising in some way to smooth this process better, because I think as you look out over 12 months you want to avoid obviously a disruption. And three, I think there was a callout on the profits of the Pizza Hut business U.S. the drag your detraction from past due receivables, how big is that? And is that something we need to be cognizant of as we think about the next year or so? And does it impact the global core operating profit growth?

Greg Creed

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Well, thanks John. And I too appreciate Greg's accent and we'll all miss it. As far as your three different questions, I'll take the first two and we'll let Chris talk a little bit about the receivables. As far as the disruption, as you can imagine when we’re closing a lot of stores and opening new stores that can be an enormous distraction, particularly if we are taking the lead on transitioning franchisees out of the system and their stores into the hand of new players. Some of that will get to the receivables which Chris will talk about. And also while transactions are taking place, obviously there's a focus issue in terms of where franchisees' focus is. As far as the company stepping in, and playing an active role in some of this, I wouldn't rule that out, but that's certainly not the plan now. The great thing about the Pizza Hut U.S. business is we have plenty of people that want to get into it and are eager to buy stores and invest capital into fixing those stores and relocating them. So we see our role is more of a facilitator than we do as somebody to be buying stores given our asset-light model. But I do think there could be an opportunity at different points in time for us to take control of some stores as they transition to another party if that's a better way to approach it. So I wouldn't rule that out. And then I'll let Chris just talk a little bit about the receivables.

Chris Turner

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Yes. John on the receivables side, clearly as you're being an outstanding franchise operator is one of our top priorities. And our stores do perform the best when we have committed capable and well capitalized franchisees. As David just mentioned, we are working to evolve that Pizza Hut U.S. franchisee base and you did see noted that the past due receivables balance did have an impact. But to put it in context, as we transition certain Pizza Hut franchisees, we will see an uptick in that bad debt. But again to put it in context, year-to-date we have reported about $200 million in fee income from our U.S. franchise system and over 95% of that we have either collected or anticipate collecting. Obviously we'll try to minimize the choppiness as we go through this process, but we do believe that the work that we're doing will ultimately be the right thing to strengthen the brand and the overall system.

Keith Siegner

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Next question please.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Dennis Geiger with UBS.

Dennis Geiger

Analyst · Dennis Geiger with UBS

Thanks. And Greg congratulations on your many years of success and best of luck. One question about technology. I guess given Yum!'s been at the forefront of investment in technology and analystics to really enhance operations over the last several years. Just wondering if you could share some thoughts on the latest benefits that you're getting from those investments and partnerships whether it be Grubhub, QuikOrder, Collider and just how those experiences frame how you're thinking about additional investment opportunities or partnerships, particularly now with Clay in place a CDTO. Thanks.

David Gibbs

Analyst · Dennis Geiger with UBS

Well, look I would just highlight from a tech standpoint, we're proud of the work that we've done to-date, but there's a lot more to do. I think like a lot of companies, we have a healthy dissatisfaction in terms of our tech agenda and we're going after it much more aggressively. And Chris can talk a little bit about that. As far as what we've done to-date, obviously, the QuikOrder transaction has worked out quite well. By bringing them in-house, we've been able to improve their capabilities and provide better services to our franchisees at lower costs. The deal with Grubhub has given us great commercial terms for our franchisees and that's allowed us to uniformly launch delivery without having to push back that I think others may have seen both in Taco Bell and the KFC system. But I know, with - one of the reasons, I'm very excited about Chris joining the team and Clay Johnson joining the team is these guys bring a lot to the tech discussion as well as Gavin Felder and I know they've got a lot of plans going forward.

Chris Turner

Analyst · Dennis Geiger with UBS

Yes. David, first, we do have the teams in place now, both strong technology leadership in each of our brands and geographies. And then the new additions that we mentioned earlier at the center and Clay Johnson supported by Gavin Felder. Obviously, for competitive reasons, we can’t go into a lot of detail on our future strategies. But just to give a little bit of color, I think there are probably three ways that we could advance technology. One would be evaluating and considering potential acquisitions or investments in Technology Company’s to help leverage our scale, bring those technologies to our stores and our franchisees. Second could be commercial arrangements that we make with technology providers that give our franchisees advantaged economics and taking advantage of those technologies. And then third, given the strength of her team, we'll be developing internally proprietary technologies. So those will be the three ways that we can leverage scale in this area. The areas that will be hunting in range across the full technology spectrum, but e-commerce, data and analytics and any innovations that improve the customer experience and the economics in our stores will clearly be at the forefront.

Keith Siegner

Analyst · Dennis Geiger with UBS

Thank you. Next question please?

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Ivankoe with JPMorgan.

John Ivankoe

Analyst · John Ivankoe with JPMorgan

Hi. Thank you. I was hoping we could get maybe an early view on fiscal '20 development, whether we talk in terms of percentage growth by brand or absolute net restaurant growth by brand, I think it's important at this point to kind of think about whether KFC can maintain or even accelerate its pace as the first point. Secondly, you've obviously made some fairly cautious total unit count comments around Pizza Hut, just want to get a little bit more clarification there. And then on Taco Bell, I think the comments were in the press release 67 gross units in 13 countries. It’s hard to drive scale at those kind of numbers internationally, but are we at the point now where Taco Bell can materially accelerate into 2020? And I'd like a follow-up as well.

David Gibbs

Analyst · John Ivankoe with JPMorgan

Yes. I mean as far as our unit count guidance, we don't historically provide guidance by brand. So I'll talk about Yum! in general. We've raised our guidance previously to 4% net unit growth. We still think that's a right number for the long term. As we've highlighted on the last earnings call with leaning in on Pizza Hut that introduced a little bit more uncertainty into the pace of development. But we still think over the next few years, we will average that 4% unit growth number. As far as Taco Bell, that's actually one of the areas that I think we're most excited about what's going on in international. We by choice focused on a few countries to try to get the pace of development really going in those countries. So you highlight that it’s 13 countries, but when you get a franchisees they sign up to build 600 units in India obviously that can make a meaningful step change to the pace of our development at Taco Bell internationally to just take one example. But we will be expanding to additional countries over time. But I think we're really at the point where Taco Bell International development can start to become a more meaningful contributor to us. And then, as far as KFC maintaining their lofty pace of development, we see no reason why that can't continue and the strength of that brand is something that I would just highlight for everybody on this earnings call. It just continues to be widespread strength with clear brand positioning, a team that's really energized about the growth prospects ahead of us and absolutely believe in our ability to continue to grow and develop and accelerate the pace of KFC development.

John Ivankoe

Analyst · John Ivankoe with JPMorgan

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Palmer with Evercore.

David Palmer

Analyst · David Palmer with Evercore

Thanks. Good morning. Just a follow-up on the Pizza Hut U.S. Could you speak to that the financial health of the franchisees? There's been reports about NPC being in being in trouble. Their bonds are trading cheap here. Margin pressure seems to be a key seem across the system. But what are your thoughts about what that specifically means not just to unit growth, but just getting things done to getting the value platform you want to place and just to overall how you're going to move forward in 2020 with that brand?

Greg Creed

Analyst · David Palmer with Evercore

Sure. As far as the pizza business, I wanted to make sure we all recognize that the Pizza Hut International business is performing quite well, starting to really deliver on some of the things that we’ve been looking for out of that business in terms of moving to a modern delivery asset base. We talked about in the script the fact that they are plus 6% on the off-premise sales on a two-year basis plus 3% lapping a 3%. All of that is a really good sign in terms of the strength of the Pizza Hut brand when it's executed by - in the market. The Pizza Hut U.S. business as we've talked about also previously has some unique challenges given the dining state and the conditions of the assets on the locations of those assets. So that's what we're trying to address by moving to a more modern delivery estate and setting the business up for long-term health. Unfortunately a lot of franchisees or some franchisees have some debt that makes it hard to relocate those assets and that's where we're working through with those parties to get the stores in the hands of the right partners that are well capitalized to grow and build the business. It's not the majority of our franchisees. The majority of our franchisees are good partners and doing a nice job. But as you know the QSR category is facing a lot of wage pressures right now and that is pressuring unit level economics and franchisees economics. But as we always remind people, building a new Pizza Hut is a good investment. The unit economics stand on themselves. This is more about working through with select group of franchisees that may have more debt on their business than they should to get those stores capitalize properly and in the right hands of the right partners.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Sara Senatore with Bernstein.

Sara Senatore

Analyst · Sara Senatore with Bernstein

Hi. Thank you. I wanted to ask about aggregators. You had said that Pizza Hut is well positioned to benefit all of your brands, I think from the Grub partnership. But I guess could you give a little more color on that and in particular, the extent to which some of - sometimes what we're seeing is when restaurant companies have unlocked different ordering channels, there are back of house challenges and just because the production capacities maybe don't quite keep up with how the orders come in. So, that was the first part of the question. And then the second was just a quick one on KFC and the Beyond Nuggets and the extent to which you view this as sort of sustainable versus a short-term very healthy list, but maybe less of the core part of the menu. Thanks.

David Gibbs

Analyst · Sara Senatore with Bernstein

Yes. I guess on the question of aggregators obviously, we value our partnership with Grubhub and one of the key features of that partnership to your point Sara is that we integrated the technologies, so that the orders get past directly into our POS systems. That wasn't easy. That was part of the reason. There was a delay in launch. But we think, that does give us a true competitive advantage over a lot of other people that are working with aggregators. So we haven't really had issues that you're alluding to in terms of being able to get the orders to the stores accurately and then back out to the customer. As far as KFC and Beyond Nuggets, obviously we're all intrigued by plant-based meat alternatives and the success that we did with Beyond, the success of that test that we did with Beyond obviously is a good sign. We’ve done other test around the world. That’s not the only one that we' done is the one that’s garner the most press in the U.S. So you can expect more to come on that front. You saw just a couple of weeks ago Pizza Hut launched in the U.S. launched their compostable box and did so with the plant-based alternative meat topping. So, we think there is plenty of application for it, but more to come on that over time.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Gregory Francfort with Bank of America.

Gregory Francfort

Analyst · Gregory Francfort with Bank of America

Hey. Thanks for the question. Greg, congrats on the retirement and David, congratulations on the new role. My question is just on G&A and you're now kind of running at where you kind of expected to get to a few years ago as a percent of system sales on G&A. And how do you expect this evolving over time as some of your bigger peers are making reinvestments in the technology side? And do you think this is a line that you can continue to leverage? Or do you expect it to kind of flat line or maybe go up over time? I guess any thoughts on that would be helpful. Thank you.

David Gibbs

Analyst · Gregory Francfort with Bank of America

Thanks Gregory. Good question. As we come to the close on the transformation we've provided the 1.7% guidance for the transformation on G&A. You saw that this quarter we were at 1.6% and so we feel comfortable with how we're closing out the transformation from G&A perspective. There’s been reset to a lower base. I think going forward you could expect a more normal run rate trajectory on G&A. Given the lower base, there will be some timing differences that could create some lumpiness there and we will be investing in technology and other areas, but we do expect in general to get leverage on our sales growth over time.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Bittner with Oppenheimer.

Brian Bittner

Analyst · Brian Bittner with Oppenheimer

Thanks. Good morning. Congratulations Greg and David. David, questions for you. We're completely post transformation now and I know you have strategic growth plans in place over multiple years that you gave say at your Analyst Day last December. But as you take over as CEO, how do you put your stamp on this company over the next many years. Just anything philosophically on how you think about Yum! Brands under your leadership versus under Greg's. For instance, are you open to making any changes in the portfolio through acquisitions or divestitures? Anything or any insight you can give us on how you're thinking moving forward? Thanks.

Greg Creed

Analyst · Brian Bittner with Oppenheimer

Yes. Thanks Brian. Look, I think we're really excited that we're coming out of this transformation with a business that is stronger and better positioned to grow. That's to start. And that is very much due to Greg's leadership over the last five years, as I said in my prepared remarks. Now that we’ve got a better machine, we'd like to drive faster and grow faster. And I'll detail a lot of this as we get into 2020, but just to give you a preview. We've talked about this Recipe for Growth and how it's been fueling our growth over the last couple of years. I think there is an opportunity to lean in further within the Recipe for Growth on the customer experience. We are not consistently executing the customer experience around the world to the standards that we have. We have pockets of excellence. We can be more consistent on that. There is obviously an opportunity on technology which Chris talked about. And then there's an opportunity to better leverage our scale. I think now that we are more of a franchisor, less of an equity operator that gives us the ability to turn our focus to leveraging the scale on behalf of the entire system. We organize in a better way to do that. I think you've seen more collaboration around world, again thanks to again thanks to Greg's leadership in dialing up the collaboration. All of that leads to an opportunity on scale. I do think that potentially could be something that would give us a benefit if we did an acquisition. So, we don’t need an acquisition to grow. Our brands today are strong generally around the world with plenty of growth opportunities, but we certainly wouldn't rule out an acquisition. I think the other thing that you'll see us talk about is as we've talked a lot about the Recipe for Growth. At the same time, we've had what we called our Recipe for Good that our businesses are doing all around the world and their communities, around people planet and food. We’ll talk more about that as we get into 2020 and the way we can dial up our communication on that and our efforts in that area.

Keith Siegner

Analyst · Brian Bittner with Oppenheimer

Operator, we have time for one more question please.

Operator

Operator

Your final question comes from the line of David Tarantino from Baird.

David Tarantino

Analyst · Baird

Hi. Good morning. My congrats also to Greg for all you've accomplished at Yum! and David on your new role. My question's pretty simple. I guess just as it relates to the 2020 outlook or 2021 outlook, I am just wondering if you're still comfortable with the algorithms that you've laid out for growth in light of all the Pizza Hut challenges you're seeing. And I guess secondarily, I guess how long do you think this Pizza Hut restructuring or transformations going to take to play out? Is it a one or two year plan? Or do you think it's longer than that? Thanks.

Greg Creed

Analyst · Baird

As far as our guidance for 2020 and 2021, we'll talk a little bit more about that on the Q4 earnings call. But in general, we've put in place a long-term growth algorithm that we think we can achieve over the next several years and that's what our business is built for. Certainly some challenges in Pizza Hut U.S. We've pressured that model but at the same time upside from Taco Bell, International growth and all of the other success that we're having around the world with KFC gives you confidence that we can overcome pressures to the model. But again we’ll talk more about that in Q4 when we get sort of our updates to the long-term growth model. Our plan is really to just provide you on an annual basis any onetime adjustment for the long-term growth model. For example, this year we had a 53rd week. Next year, we'll be lapping the 53rd year. We'll provide you the guidance for what that means for 2019 -- for 2020.

David Gibbs

Analyst · Baird

With that I am going to turn it back to Greg for some closing remarks.

Greg Creed

Analyst · Baird

Thank you, David. So in closing, after 25 years with the company, today is my final earnings call. I've been blessed to work with and I've learned such I think much from such amazing individuals including our Board, our team members, our franchisees and our customers. After five years as CEO, I feel really good about what we accomplished and what's next for Yum!. We've transformed the company and I truly believe that Yum! is stronger for all its stakeholders. And now I'm handing the reins to David. David's been an incredible partner and I'm looking forward to watching him lead. Now finally, I want to thank you our investors and the analysts. Through the years, you've challenged us, asked the tough questions, gave your opinions and kept us sharp. You've made me a better leader and kept us sharp. You’ve made me a better leader and Yum! a better company, and for all of that and your kind wishes today, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. That does conclude today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.