Bryan Hanson
Analyst · Morgan Stanley.
So, what I would say is that $700 million or $800 million is still out there. So, I would say, that’s the amount of backlog that is still out for future revenue, and none of that is I’m counting as being already captured. I do believe that when you think about the backlog, again, you’ve got to separate it into two different categories. First category would be those patients that were deferred in the very beginning. So, you absolutely know they’re deferred patients. And the other portion of that backlog are those -- I’m just going to call them category 2 patients, which are kind of just building right now and will continue to build until we get back to market growth. And so, that $700 million to $800 million will be future revenue for us. My sense is that, first category of patients, those that were deferred initially will likely be completely run through, by the time we get to the end of 2020, or most of them will. But you’re still going to have a pretty significant backlog left for 2021. I would say, the way you can calculate that is, when you look at your overall market growth delta between what we actually did in 2020 versus the market growth, whatever that delta is, in those procedures that are elective and also are connected to progressive diseases, a large majority of those patients will come back into the funnel. So, if you just look at that delta. Let’s say, you had 100 procedures or less than typical market, you could take probably 80% of those or 80 procedures and say that’s my backlog that will come into 2021. So, that’s kind of the way I’m thinking about it. The challenge is that you have these big variables that are still moving out there around patient fear and the resurgence of the virus. So, it’s difficult to say that the backlog coming back in is going to give us that tailwind that we want without the negative impacts of those two variables. But, what I’ll say again is, if we can move to the point where we have a valid vaccine or an effective treatment, that takes those two variables off the table. And then, you’ve got the backlog as a tailwind, which should be significant for us. And so, you could see a pathway, I guess what I’m saying. If things stay about the same, as you come into a vaccine, renew or mitigate those two negative variables, a very strong growth in 2021, the challenge is, those variables -- and I’m saying that need to go away are pretty significant, and we just don’t know if it’s going to happen or not. But certainly, you could see a pathway, just given again that backlog volume of strong growth in the back half in 2021. It just depends on how those other two variables play out.