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Zions Bancorporation, National Association (ZION)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Mon, Jan 25, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day ladies, and gentlemen and welcome to the Zions Bancorporation’s Fourth Quarter 2015 Earnings Results Webcast Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to James Abbott, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

James Abbott

Analyst · Geoffrey Elliott of Autonomous Research. Your line is now open

Thank you, and good evening. We welcome you to this conference call to discuss our fourth quarter 2015 earnings. Our primary participants today will be Harris Simmons, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Scott McLean, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Paul Burdiss, Chief Financial Officer. I would like to remind you that during this call we’ll be making forward-looking statements, although actual results may differ materially. We encourage you to review the disclaimer in this press release dealing with forward-looking information which applies equally to statements made in this call. A full copy of the earnings release will be -- as well as a supplemental slide deck are available at zionsbancorporation.com. We’ll be referring to the slides during this call. We intend to limit the length of this call to one hour, which will include a question-and-answer session. During that time we ask you to limit your questions to one primary and one related follow-up question to enable other participants to ask questions. I will now turn the time over to Harris Simmons.

Harris Simmons

Analyst · SunTrust. Your line is now open

Thank you, James, and welcome to all of you who are on the call today to discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2015 results. There is obviously a lot of focus on energy and we’ll talk about energy as we get further into the presentation, but I wanted to talk about a variety of things that we think are actually working very nicely before we get to that. From Slide 3 and the related slides that we’ve distributed, we’ve tried to highlight some of the initiatives that are working well and are within our expectations. I’ll touch on a few of these in my remarks here, but as an overarching comment, I would want to say that I’m quite encouraged with the positive operating leverage that we achieved in the quarter. The positive revenue trajectory, the stable expense levels, and the solid progress that we’ve made on the technology projects that we’re pursuing. We are highly focused on improving the profitability and growth profile of the Company and we made very tangible progress in 2015 towards those goals. Additionally, despite the weakness in energy commodity prices, we were able to maintain strong overall asset quality metrics and we experienced an encouraging improvement in the rate of loan growth compared to the prior quarter during the fourth quarter here. On Slide 4, we display our loans and deposits. Relative to the third quarter, we experienced improved loan growth in the fourth quarter of $536 million or about 5% annualized. Excluding the effects of expected energy loan attrition loan growth was more than $700 million or about 8% annualized. We were pleased with growth in areas that are targeted for growth specifically non-energy commercial and industrial and consumer loans. Deposit growth shown in the chart on the right has been a…

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · SunTrust. Your line is now open

Thank you, Harris, and good afternoon everyone. I’ll begin on Slide 10. For the fourth quarter of 2015, Zions reported net earnings to common shareholders of $88 million or $0.43 per share. Relative to the third quarter, net interest income increased about 5.5%. Adjusted for recoveries of interest income and a linked-quarter increase in income from loans purchased from the FDIC, net interest income increased just under 3%. Actively managed non-interest income, which excludes investment-related items and securities gains and losses increased slightly from the prior quarter and as Harris noted earlier, increased about 4% for the full year 2015 when compared to the full year of 2014. At just over $400 million, non-interest expenses were higher in the fourth quarter when compared to the third quarter due in part to elevated levels of expenses in certain categories as detailed in the press release, which accompanies this call. We are encouraged by the efforts of our teammates to manage our cost of doing business. Our collective efforts allowed Zions to realize our goal of adjusted non-interest expense of less than 1.6 billion for 2015. Turning to the provision for loan and lease losses, we had expected a moderate build in the reserve for energy loans, partially offset by continued reserve release in the rest of the portfolio. Although throughout most of the quarter, we expected the provision for loan losses to be in line with the third quarter result, the decline in the price of oil near the end of the quarter resulted in a moderately higher provision. The energy loan portfolio continues to perform about as we had expected. As we progress through 2016, we expect quarterly provisions to be moderately higher than the fourth quarter results. The key driver of our expectation for an elevated provision in 2016…

Scott McLean

Analyst · Brad Milsaps of Sandler O'Neill. Your line is now open

Thank you, Paul and I'll start on Slide 17. We've not repeated the table that we have in our earnings release on Page 4 of the earnings release in this -- in the main section of this slide deck, although it can be found in the Appendix, but let me just make some summary comments. As noted in the press release, energy loan outstandings and commitments declined fairly substantially from the prior quarter and from a year ago. We commented that, we believe this would happened throughout 2015, the decline in outstandings was about 450 million compared to a year ago and commitments are down approximately $1 billion since a year ago. Classified energy loan balance has increased by approximately 76 million from the prior quarter and finished at a level that is actually somewhat better than what we would have expected a year ago. Non-accrual energy loans declined from the prior quarter primarily due to net charge-offs, which is not the way you want to reduce that bucket, but it's important to note that the level does not increase much if you adjust for net charge-offs. Turning to Slide 16 -- let's see it's not Slide 16, it is probably Slide 17. Yes, or is it okay, I am sorry. Yes, as we noted since late 2014, we have been extremely active in managing the energy portfolio, including the full attention of our entire executive team reviewing the portfolio frequently on a credit-by-credit basis, plus significant interaction with our customers. Based upon that input along with our models, we are updating our outlook for energy loan losses. As noted previously, these various methodologies led us to estimated energy loan losses of between 75 million to 125 million for the nine quarter period ending the fourth quarter of 2016. That…

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · SunTrust. Your line is now open

Thank Scott. Slide 20 depicts our outlook for the next 12 months, relative to the most recent quarter. We are maintaining our slightly to moderately increasing outlook for loans, due primarily to factors already discussed earlier in our comments. Over the next four quarters, we expect net interest income to increase from the fourth quarter level. We anticipate continued loan and security growth and additional benefit from December's slight rate increase, which will outpace the headwinds of one fewer day of interest income and no anticipated large interest income recoveries. Our outlook does not include the effective of any future rate increases by the Federal Reserve, although we expect to benefit to annual net interest income of about $100 million for every 100 basis point increase in short-term rates. We expect our quarterly provision that is moderately higher than the fourth quarter of 2015, assuming energy prices remain near current levels. We expect to maintain a strong reserve ratio on energy loans. We expect the non-interest income excluding dividends and securities gains and losses will increase slightly to moderately as we continue to focus heavily on this line items. As a reminder, if dividends from federal agencies namely the Federal Home Loan banks will decline due to a charter consolidation. You may recall we have multiple memberships to several Federal Home Loan banks and we're consolidating those to a single federal home loan bank and due to the FAST Act which is more commonly known as the Highway Spending Bill and its impact on dividends from the Federal Reserve. Non-interest expense as stated previously and we are committed to holding the non-interest expense to less than $1.6 billion for 2016, excluding severance and restructuring costs. The effective tax rate for the quarter was about 4 basis points lower than our typical effective tax rate. This is due primarily to investment tax credits realized this quarter, relating to alternative energy and research and development. We expect our effective tax rate to be closer to 34% in 2016 which may fluctuate somewhat due to how much of our investment in technology projects is eligible for tax credits. We expect preferred dividends to continue to decline, the tender offer completed in the fourth quarter reduces preferred dividends by approximately $10 million annually, although the amounts are uneven. For example assuming no changes to the outstanding preferred equity from today, the first and third quarter dividend rates are expected to be 112, I'm sorry $12 million each and the second and fourth quarters should be approximately $15 million each. This concludes our prepared remarks, Sabrina would you please open the line for questions. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Jennifer Demba of SunTrust. Your line is now open.

Jennifer Demba

Analyst · SunTrust. Your line is now open

Could you guys, it’s a very healthy capital ratio. Just wondered if you have any interest in share repurchases once we get through CCAR given your stock has taken quite a hit in the last several weeks?

Harris Simmons

Analyst · SunTrust. Your line is now open

I would tell you that I would certainly expect so. We have not developed the capital plan that will accompany our submission of our stress test and through the CCAR process, which is just getting underway. But we would expect to be more aggressive than we’ve been, certainly in the last cycle in terms of what we’ll hope to accomplish in the way of capital returns. And that I expect that would be on the table, Jennifer, but obviously that’s we are aboard to contemplate and determine in consultation with the management team here and then it goes through the CCAR process, but that’s what I would sort of expect we will be doing.

Jennifer Demba

Analyst · SunTrust. Your line is now open

And just one additional question on the energy portfolio, Paul, could you just kind of elaborate how much of the reserve you guys have is qualitative versus quantitative for the energy portfolio?

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · SunTrust. Your line is now open

Well Jennifer, I think as you know that’s not something that we typically disclose as Scott said, however we do believe we have a healthy reserve at over 5% of [bank] [ph] loans.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Brad Milsaps of Sandler O'Neill. Your line is now open.

Brad Milsaps

Analyst · Brad Milsaps of Sandler O'Neill. Your line is now open

Scott, I was going to see if you give maybe a little more color on the pay downs that you did see in the energy book during the quarter. Just kind of what the nature of those were, are you starting to see any evidence of PE money, other energy companies buying out others, just trying to get a sense of kind of where the pay downs could go and where you’re -- those are stemming from?

Scott McLean

Analyst · Brad Milsaps of Sandler O'Neill. Your line is now open

Sure Brad, no, good question. Actually the pay downs are coming much more, they are more heavily weighted to the services portfolio, number one. Number two, you’re going to see a natural contraction in the reserve base outstandings as the redetermination came down during the quarter. The borrowing bases were re-determined down we saw some natural payoffs there. But those would be the two primary areas. And we saw continued term amortization, recall that on the services side of our portfolio about 35% of the portfolio is term, it’s amortizing on a little less than a five year basis. And so we’re continuing to see reductions there. And then the last comment I would make is that during the year, we had approximately $140 million of capital contributed by private equity firms and that didn’t all go to support reductions, but it, a portion of it did. And additionally, we saw about 150 million in loan commitments reduce as a result of restructurings that we did. So really it’s across the board and it’s all pretty healthy type reductions that you would anticipate.

Brad Milsaps

Analyst · Brad Milsaps of Sandler O'Neill. Your line is now open

Okay. And then just one follow-up, I know you’re using $30 per barrel to drive your charge-offs expectations for the year. Just curious kind of where you guys are in terms of your price deck in terms of and where you are for the redetermination numbers coming in at the end of the year?

Scott McLean

Analyst · Brad Milsaps of Sandler O'Neill. Your line is now open

Yes, the current price deck is in the low-30s and then obviously it goes up from there. But the current low-end is about $32, our sensitivity case for 2016 drops down to $24, so that’s -- we’ve had about 11 price deck reductions over the last I’d say 12 to 18 months.

Brad Milsaps

Analyst · Brad Milsaps of Sandler O'Neill. Your line is now open

Great, thank you.

Scott McLean

Analyst · Brad Milsaps of Sandler O'Neill. Your line is now open

And you’d see the same sort of conservative nature on the natural gas pricing as well.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Ken Zerbe of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Ken Zerbe

Analyst · Ken Zerbe of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

First question, just in terms of the investing of the cash into securities, could you just walk us through the thinking, like what changed in your minds, I mean, I know we had the rate hike, but it doesn’t seem like security yields would have been all that much higher now versus say a month or five months ago? Why get more aggressive with security purchases? Thanks.

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · Ken Zerbe of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

Yes, this is Paul. I assume when you say more aggressive, just there was a slight acceleration in the fourth quarter relative to what we’ve seen previously, is that correct?

Ken Zerbe

Analyst · Ken Zerbe of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

I was thinking like the 1.6 billion that I think I saw referenced for the full year.

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · Ken Zerbe of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

Okay, yes. I think we’ve been pretty consistent in saying that over the course of two to three years, we would be investing approximately $6 billion of cash into the investment portfolio. And the timing of that may change. So I wouldn’t say that there was any particular view on the yield curve, but we are trying to be somewhat thoughtful about the timing of those investments. But looking forward I would expect to continue kind of in the range or the pace of the purchases that we have been making.

Scott McLean

Analyst · Ken Zerbe of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

I think it's also just fair to say that I mean we just continued to see growth in deposits, and particularly non-interest bearing deposits and so that’s facilitated a little faster build up.

Ken Zerbe

Analyst · Ken Zerbe of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

And then just as the follow-up on Page 16 in terms of the energy loss expectations of 75 million to 100 million over the next four quarters, I know we’ve been in the energy crisis I guess for some time. But just in terms of the path of losses, all right, we’re talking about the losses over the next four quarters though with oil at $30 today, are we more likely going to be look into 2017, obviously we have the reserves build now, but are we more likely to see even higher losses in 2017, I am just trying to understand the default path of the energy companies?

Scott McLean

Analyst · Ken Zerbe of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open

Ken, it’s obviously very difficult to estimate what 2017 would look like. The price decline in the last month has been last 30 day has been very similar to last year, in terms of magnitude and we’re obviously at a different level. And so all that pushed us to say that we would be at the upper-end of the range that we originally stated for 2016, and I think what you’ll look for us what you can look for us to do is mid-year we’ll have a better sense of how long this is going to last and what portion of the ’17, but if, to answer your question very specifically, if prices did stay in this current level through 2017 you’d probably see losses in ’17 of about the same magnitude that we’re suggesting for 2016.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Marty Mosby of Vining-Sparks. Your line is now open.

Marty Mosby

Analyst · Marty Mosby of Vining-Sparks. Your line is now open

I wanted to ask you just about as you look at the discount that’s kind of evolved into your stock price, I would say that you’ll calculate the earnings power as a cushion for potential losses. And I just want to make sure I’m getting this right. If we look at pre-tax on our earnings cushion, you have about 125 million per quarter and that would relate to about what you have right now in energy reserves, which represents 5% of the portfolio. So if you look at each quarter, you’re generating in excess of another 5% before you would ever get into a capital, so be it kind of hit, to the capital position versus just reducing earnings. So, just wanted to you to kind of talk a little bit about earnings cushion and the potential losses in energy?

Scott McLean

Analyst · Marty Mosby of Vining-Sparks. Your line is now open

I think you’ve done a very nice job. I think first we start with a very strong capital and strong reserves, not only for energy but across the portfolio. And the rest of the portfolio continues to improve. I mean energy is the only place we’re seeing stress. So, I think we feel like the risk of any real capital need, any external source of capital are going to be very it is just not on the horizon of anything we expect to happen at the present time.

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · Marty Mosby of Vining-Sparks. Your line is now open

Well, in the guidance we gave on a 30 to 35 basis points of net charge-offs is again very manageable in the sense of our overall capital generation and that assumes a pretty pejorative outlook for the energy sector. So, you do have to -- once you move away from your analysis of energy, you have to look at how energy sits inside our total financial structure. And as you noted and Harris noted it, there is a lot of balance there.

Scott McLean

Analyst · Marty Mosby of Vining-Sparks. Your line is now open

There is a lot incremental capital being generated each quarter just with the earnings power you have now. And then Paul the other I would find to really look at is before the stock price guidance to a discount, such a discount that it is now I thought dividends would be kind of the focus. But once you get this bigger gap, share repurchase becomes so valuable. Has the change in stock price changed the way you would just, not asking about the level that you’ve asked for, but maybe your priority with share repurchase being a bigger priority now where the stock price is relative to maybe year-end?

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · Marty Mosby of Vining-Sparks. Your line is now open

Again, it could well be -- I mean that’s a yet to have with our Board, but I think we clearly recognize the power of repurchases right now.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Paul Miller of FBR. Your line is now open.

Paul Miller

Analyst · Paul Miller of FBR. Your line is now open

There was an OCC letter CRE exposure and worry -- I think the OCC was a little bit worried about some banks taking exposure there with that concern within are concerned, can you talk that a little bit about how you're dealing with that OCC letter and is it a big concern there at Zions?

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · Paul Miller of FBR. Your line is now open

We’ll have Michael Morris our Chief Credit Officer, speak to that. Michael?

Michael Morris

Analyst · Paul Miller of FBR. Your line is now open

Sure, well the OCC letter focused a lot on multifamily and a lot on the buildup in community banks, especially in multifamily and we feel very comfortable with our multifamily exposure in all of the markets that we're in with the teams that we have in place, with the equity sponsors that we bank. Our average loan to cost in the construction site is around 60%-65%, so that translates into something less than that in LTV, so 55-60 LTV on projects that are still continuing to lease up and stabilize at rents that were either pro forma or in excessive pro forma. So where we see the pressure coming will be on cap rates as overall yields move up, if they do might not being the favorite asset class that it has been, so that could put some pressure on cap rates which would increase some of the value, but we're watching it carefully and we feel good about our exposure.

Paul Miller

Analyst · Paul Miller of FBR. Your line is now open

And do you think Mike where your level of exposure in that area would it have to decline or it could stay where it is?

Michael Morris

Analyst · Paul Miller of FBR. Your line is now open

We think it can stay where it is and go right into a cycle where there might be a little of softness in rent growth and cap rate increase, but we're comfortable where it is. We don't actually want it to pay-off and go out into the capital markets right into the agency side.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Erika Najarian of Bank of American. Your line is now open.

Erika Najarian

Analyst · Erika Najarian of Bank of American. Your line is now open

My first question is a follow-up to Ken's. Paul you noted the rate of future securities purchases would be similar to what we've seen in the past, but I am calculating 1.5 on average for this quarter as you mentioned and then 6-10 in the previous quarter. Given that this such a powerful NII driver for you, it seems at which -- I just want to get it right, what should we assume for about the levels that of purchases per quarter?

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · Erika Najarian of Bank of American. Your line is now open

Yes Erica sorry if I misspoke, what I meant to say was that our purchases going forward would be in the range of what you'd experience so you kind of outlined the range of possibilities, but I would expect to continue to make purchases in that range for at least the next four quarters. And then hopefully they would be sort of somewhat reflective of the opportunity that the market gives us, but if we clearly understand the earnings power of those securities additions and are focused on continuing to deliver that. I should also say that those portfolio additions as I said in my slide comments, we're paying special attention to the duration of the bonds we’re putting on and the extension risk. These are typically agency arms, an agency 10-year final maturity pass-throughs which again have we believe more predictable characteristic as it relates to the extension risk on those additions.

Erika Najarian

Analyst · Erika Najarian of Bank of American. Your line is now open

And if I could ask are those mostly HQLA and could remind us of what your LCR ratio is at the fourth quarter and how you’d expected it to and how you're managing it for this year?

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · Erika Najarian of Bank of American. Your line is now open

Right Erica we're particularly mindful of the LCR and the securities that we're putting on we're adding in the context of HQLA, so either level 1 or level 2 in the appropriate proportions. I don't believe we disclosed our LCR, but I will say that we are comfortably in excess of the requirement.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Joe Morford of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Joe Morford

Analyst · Joe Morford of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open

Just wondered if you could give us a little more color to the drivers to the pick in the loan growth in the fourth quarter and any notable geographic trends you saw and related to that also just curious the run-off that you would expect to see in the national real estate portfolio in 2016?

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · Joe Morford of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open

Sure, yes the growth during the quarter was -- we saw nice wonderful family mortgage growth across the entire franchise as our mortgage initiative is continuing to mature and we think that will continue into the New Year here and then with basically C&I growth just solid C&I growth above and beyond what is running off in the energy portfolio.

Joe Morford

Analyst · Joe Morford of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open

And then the run-off?

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · Joe Morford of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open

Yes, and Joe the nature of that C&I, those C&I balances, new balances, it is just normal kind of middle markets small business lending that we did…

Joe Morford

Analyst · Joe Morford of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open

Right.

Scott McLean

Analyst · Joe Morford of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open

And I think if you look on Slide 26, there is a pretty good depiction by geography and types, you kind of see for this, now that's -- this is year-over-year -- but on the national's real estate it has been on 457 for the year it is -- that space of shrinkage has slowed. So we think we're getting closer to a point where that kind of starts to stabilize.

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · Joe Morford of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open

Yes, by bank Joe, I would just add a little commentary the Zions bank was little right around the $75 million mark in growth from the prior quarter and California Bank & Trust actually had a really strong quarter at more than almost $220 million worth of growth, energy had good growth, obviously not in C&I because of the nature of the energy portfolio there but in the other categories, it was a good quarter there. So in Arizona like $100 million growth there, it’s just a really diversified growth.

Joe Morford

Analyst · Joe Morford of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open

And then maybe just a couple of quick housekeeping things, I wondered if you could just in the expense categories just quantify what the litigation accruals for this quarter as well as for those fees paid out on the DIC investment IPO?

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · Joe Morford of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open

We're not going to give you a disaggregation of it impart because we -- it's -- the litigation is ongoing and it's useful stuff not to have to signal what that is in a granular way, so someday we'll come back and answer your question but not right now.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Geoffrey Elliott of Autonomous Research. Your line is now open.

Geoffrey Elliott

Analyst · Geoffrey Elliott of Autonomous Research. Your line is now open

I wondered if you could talk about credit, ex-energy and how long you think the positive trends that you are seeing there can continue?

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · Geoffrey Elliott of Autonomous Research. Your line is now open

Well I mean, I guess the short answer is until we see the non-energy economies start to really fray, but we're not seeing that we -- and I don't think we're going to venture a guess as to when the cycle really starts to et cetera, we'll actually do that but I think suffice to say that at the moment we continue to see improvement and even in markets like, in a market like Texas the non-energy portfolio remains very healthy. We are looking at a lot of indicators in each of those portfolios to kind of watching for problems and so far it is not really showing up. So, anything Michael you would add to that?

Michael Morris

Analyst · Geoffrey Elliott of Autonomous Research. Your line is now open

No, I can't add anything to that, all domains consumer, retail, mortgage, small business, large commercial they all continue to perform well and metrics are all solid.

James Abbott

Analyst · Geoffrey Elliott of Autonomous Research. Your line is now open

Geoff this is James.

Geoffrey Elliott

Analyst · Geoffrey Elliott of Autonomous Research. Your line is now open

Sorry?

James Abbott

Analyst · Geoffrey Elliott of Autonomous Research. Your line is now open

Geoff I was just going to direct you to maybe the Appendix Slide 25 and this might be helpful for you. As you look at -- we haven't broken out a lot of information on past loans grade migration in the past but this is a little bit of the FICO score analysis of what's happening both in -- what we've turned as the high oil and gas employment counties, we're going to create a new acronym here, but -- and then everything else and so this is in our consumer book but you can maybe think about this in terms of how consumers are behaving versus small business which is the bread and butter or a bread and butter business for Zions, but you can kind of see the -- at every point from the year ago period, you are not seeing deterioration of any statistical significance in the consumer book and that's the same story that you'd see if you looked at our small business portfolio and middle market portfolios.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin of Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Ken Usdin

Analyst · Ken Usdin of Jefferies. Your line is now open

Just a couple of more clarifications on credit, so just understanding if the outlook for charge-offs is 30 to 35 basis points, because I calculate that's around 120 million to 145 million or so of charge-offs, and I am just wondering on top of that are you also saying that you'll provide for some loan growth and then is there also potential for additional reserve build, if there is additional deterioration in the energy credits as you mentioned on the slide?

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · Ken Usdin of Jefferies. Your line is now open

Actually we believe with the provision that we've guided you towards that that should fully cover this level of charge-offs and growth in the portfolio.

Ken Usdin

Analyst · Ken Usdin of Jefferies. Your line is now open

Okay, so…

Harris Simmons

Analyst · Ken Usdin of Jefferies. Your line is now open

Well again there is quite an assumption there again the quality and the rest of portfolio remains as strong as it is currently or even continues to improve a little bit but.

Ken Usdin

Analyst · Ken Usdin of Jefferies. Your line is now open

Yes, that's why I asked the question because it just seems like if you're saying a 75 to 100 of energy losses than it would seem that you have got about 45 million from other sectors but I'm just trying to understand that breakdown of the reserve bill, the loan growth and then it doesn't seem like to your answer on prior question it doesn't seem like you're seeing much elsewhere as far as lost contents. I was wondering if it was just a summary of those other things and maybe the absence of recoveries?

Harris Simmons

Analyst · Ken Usdin of Jefferies. Your line is now open

Yes I guess the other thing what I would probably add is if we saw loan growth and the resets kind of slight to moderate, and clearly as loan growth surprises the upside that would probably push the provision a little bit higher too. So it's -- this anticipates pretty modest loan growth in getting to that kind of a number.

Ken Usdin

Analyst · Ken Usdin of Jefferies. Your line is now open

And just a quick follow-up on the fee side, this quarter obviously you had the -- it looks like you had some write-downs in the loan sales line but can you also help us understand how much the impact is of the highway bill and the charter consolidation and did that all show up in fees as well?

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · Ken Usdin of Jefferies. Your line is now open

Well, yes the point that I was making this is Paul, around the outlook for non-interest income was that these sources of dividends in the past were not going to be there going forward and so for example on Federal Reserve bank stock there's about a $3 million differential there in 2016 relative to 2015 and in federal home loan bank stock it’s kind of in the $5 million to $7 million range. So you're looking at in the aggregate about $10 million of reduced dividends from those sources in '16 versus '15.

Ken Usdin

Analyst · Ken Usdin of Jefferies. Your line is now open

And then just should we start from the 124 reported as the base to grow up slightly to moderately increasing?

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · Ken Usdin of Jefferies. Your line is now open

I would say there were a couple of items in there as you correctly pointed out in your question that averaged the impact of that. I think the right base is probably closer to the third quarter number which is kind of in the 130 range.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Kevin Barker of Piper Jaffray. Your line is now open.

Kevin Barker

Analyst · Kevin Barker of Piper Jaffray. Your line is now open

Given that the -- some of the securities buyings that you've done over the last couple of quarters and your expectations over the next several quarters, where do you see your asset sensitivity on 100 and 200 basis point move once you fully complete some of the balance sheet restructuring over the next give it a year or two?

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · Kevin Barker of Piper Jaffray. Your line is now open

Yes, this is Paul, my expectation is that given our starting point which was as you know we screen very high asset sensitivity, even after taking into consideration the fixed rate asset purchases that we contemplate here over the next year or so, my expectation is that while our asset sensitivity will be reduced we will have converted all of that sort of potential income into actual income. And we will still screen in my opinion on the high-end of asset sensitivity relative to our peers.

Kevin Barker

Analyst · Kevin Barker of Piper Jaffray. Your line is now open

When you say high-end do you have an idea of 200 basis point move will be x percentage or 100 basis point move would be, 4% to 6%?

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · Kevin Barker of Piper Jaffray. Your line is now open

We haven't quantified that, and maybe James and I can work together to figure out what might make sense, but I think if you look at the spread of asset sensitivity around the peers as I said we're still going to be at the high-end of that.

Kevin Barker

Analyst · Kevin Barker of Piper Jaffray. Your line is now open

And then you mentioned that the price decks for oil were down at $32 and the stressed impact was I believe you mentioned $24 in your earlier comments. At that level and if we were to see oil near $24 for the next year or two, do you quantify or have some stress impact for energy losses in that scenario?

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · Kevin Barker of Piper Jaffray. Your line is now open

We actually have four models that we're utilizing at the moment and they cover the full gamut from $20 a barrel up to higher levels and the guidance we're giving for this year fully reflects the potential of a $20 scenario.

Kevin Barker

Analyst · Kevin Barker of Piper Jaffray. Your line is now open

Okay.

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · Kevin Barker of Piper Jaffray. Your line is now open

Which we don't anticipate to happen by the way, but you can't help but study it at that level because we just have a very serious approach to this whole subject.

Kevin Barker

Analyst · Kevin Barker of Piper Jaffray. Your line is now open

Yes, so we don't get there, all right thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of John Pancari of Evercore. Your line is now open.

John Pancari

Analyst · John Pancari of Evercore. Your line is now open

Wanted to see if you could just on the oil price sensitivity wanted to see if you can give us what the sensitivity will be if oil was at $20 by the end of '16 and I'm not just asking that just to have you extrapolate, but I understand that it may not be asymmetrical relationship, it might get much worse as prices fall into the 20s and stay there, so just wanted see if you can help us size that up? Thanks.

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · John Pancari of Evercore. Your line is now open

You know I appreciate the question, but we are -- it is really is a moving target, we’re not going to sort of disclose each one of our scenarios, but suffice it to say that we have evaluated at that level from multiple different approaches. And we believe that again what we’ve forecasted would be well in the range of lower prices.

Harris Simmons

Analyst · John Pancari of Evercore. Your line is now open

And I think the question is there going to be a complete cliff in that process and?

Scott McLean

Analyst · John Pancari of Evercore. Your line is now open

There is generally not a complete cliff. I mean the nice thing about the reserve based lending. Is that it is unlike any other type of commercial lending we do, it is made to adjust on a periodic basis. And it works far better than working capital revolvers, receivables and inventory. And the industry E&P companies, they know how to live within their cash flows generally speaking is doesn’t mean they encounter problems, they will encounter problems. But they know how to ratchet back cash flow and it’s fundamentally comes in the form of controlling their CapEx. But they have many other things to control including the cost that they receive from services companies, which are down anywhere from 25% to 35% in 2016. The other thing as you have probably read about is that just lifting cost, pure cash lifting cost. Depending on the company, depending on the reservoir et cetera, et cetera are generally in the $7 to $12 range, pure cash lifting cost. So there is a lot of datapoints to what I just described to you, but because these revolvers are -- the borrowing bases are re-determined every six months through comprehensive engineering we -- they adjust very naturally, so you rarely run into a pure brick wall.

John Pancari

Analyst · John Pancari of Evercore. Your line is now open

My follow-up is on the commercial real estate portfolio on a linked-quarter basis, the term CRE book was up 4.5%. The first time in a while, you have put out that type of growth in that book. Is that something that is sticky and could you see it continue the growth at that pace or I was just wondering what’s changed that you feel comfortable growing that? Thanks.

Michael Morris

Analyst · John Pancari of Evercore. Your line is now open

This is Michael. I would say that without really digging into the number, that while that growth came from conversion from construction to term. And when that happens it’s a lot easier for that to stick to the books and a lot of easier for us to write near term than it is to go out and originate fresh near-term loans that may not have the kind of risk profile that we want. So we have really put the decelerator on C&D, especially in the multi-family. So a lot of that would be conversion to term, but some of the business units are originating new term. So if we can continue to create a more stabilized CRE portfolio with stabilized income streams.

John Pancari

Analyst · John Pancari of Evercore. Your line is now open

But I guess Paul, I guess from your perspective from the risk weighting that is applied to commercial real estate exposure and everything. I mean does this imply that you’re more comfortable with the exposure now, as it pertains to your capital ramifications or well that is what I am just trying to get at?

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · John Pancari of Evercore. Your line is now open

Well, first don’t think we have plenty of capital. But importantly as Michael said, I think what we’re seeing here is a conversion of construction into term CRE. So in the aggregate, I’m not sure that the exit loss profile looks any worse.

Michael Morris

Analyst · John Pancari of Evercore. Your line is now open

And I think it is notable, but I mean if you look at construction, it’s flat over the last year, I mean it came up a little bit, came back down. And total CRE is up 2.3% or something like that. I mean so it is -- I wouldn’t extrapolate from one quarter on the CRE fees.

John Pancari

Analyst · John Pancari of Evercore. Your line is now open

Okay, all right. Thank you.

James Abbott

Analyst · John Pancari of Evercore. Your line is now open

Sabrina, we’ve got about five questions left. We’ll have to go to the one question per questioner at this point just to try to, we're already overdue so we are going to try to go through this quickly though.

Operator

Operator

Sounds, good. Our next question comes from the line of David Darst of Guggenheim Securities. Your line is now open.

David Darst

Analyst · David Darst of Guggenheim Securities. Your line is now open

So on the 400 million that you had as loss absorbing capacity in the CCAR with CDOs, is there any risk that are in the upcoming CCAR that’s not enough, kind of curious stress level for the energy book?

Scott McLean

Analyst · David Darst of Guggenheim Securities. Your line is now open

Well, it is -- I mean the nature of Fed Reserves models as if you don’t really know. I mean we would certainly expect that there would be nominal if any loss showing in the securities portfolio just around at CCAR. And so I think you are thinking about it may be right way, I mean you sort of have $400 million that you could move to another column to C&I for energy for example. But we obviously don’t know, so at the moment we don’t know what the scenario is going to look like it hasn’t been distributed yet and we don’t know how their models work. So I think it would be speculative on our part to say that we have any better understanding than you probably do about what’s going to come out of that model.

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · David Darst of Guggenheim Securities. Your line is now open

Although, this is Paul, I’ll remind you that the operative capital statistic last year was Tier 1 common and the operative statistics this is year is common equity Tier 1. And under the fed’s model last year, we fared much better under the current measure than the former measure.

David Darst

Analyst · David Darst of Guggenheim Securities. Your line is now open

All right.

Scott McLean

Analyst · David Darst of Guggenheim Securities. Your line is now open

And should show a strong level of pre-tax pre-provision net revenue as well coming in, so a better starting point in that way.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Steven Alexopoulos of JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Steven Alexopoulos

Analyst · Steven Alexopoulos of JPMorgan. Your line is now open

So my one question is for Scott. Could you give us a sense, what percent of production for your E&P customers which was hedged in 2015, and at what level? And then how is that changing into 2016, both percent hedge and then the new level it will be hedged at? Thanks.

Scott McLean

Analyst · Steven Alexopoulos of JPMorgan. Your line is now open

Sure, so the -- let me just sort of give you a broad sense of this. That in -- last year, we indicated that a year ago that generally speaking oil was hedged at around 55% of the current year production and that number is probably about two-thirds of that now for current year production, half to two-thirds. And it’d be similar for gas, the amount of gas hedging was a little less last year than the 55% plus or minus for oil in terms of -- and I am talking about current year production, so it would have been 2015 production, now we’re in 2016, and I am saying that those hedging levels are probably about half of what they were in -- for the 2015 year. And I would also tell you that the way that the borrowing base redeterminations work that is fully taken into account. So, if it doesn’t stop the decline in the borrowing bases, but it's fully taken into account in terms of the present value of the future cash flows.

Steven Alexopoulos

Analyst · Steven Alexopoulos of JPMorgan. Your line is now open

And what about the level in terms of where it's hedged at for 2016?

Scott McLean

Analyst · Steven Alexopoulos of JPMorgan. Your line is now open

The dollar amount?

Steven Alexopoulos

Analyst · Steven Alexopoulos of JPMorgan. Your line is now open

Yes, on average?

Scott McLean

Analyst · Steven Alexopoulos of JPMorgan. Your line is now open

So yes, I don’t have that number, I apologize. Let me go back and see what we said last year, I don’t have that dollar amount. And I don’t -- yes we’ll just take a look back at it.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of David Eads of UBS. Your line is now open.

David Eads

Analyst · David Eads of UBS. Your line is now open

A big part of my question John had and I think more from a qualitative standpoint than a quantitative standpoint, just curious if we’ve seen some bankruptcies failed to recently and I know that every borrower is very-very different. But I am just curious if what have we seen recently would cause any reason to change your expectations when it comes to loss severities when you do see evolve?

Scott McLean

Analyst · David Eads of UBS. Your line is now open

On the energy portfolio?

David Eads

Analyst · David Eads of UBS. Your line is now open

Yes, yes.

Scott McLean

Analyst · David Eads of UBS. Your line is now open

Yes. Again these four models that we use are pretty aggressive in terms of the negative assumptions that we use or the very conservative assumptions that we use. So, we believe we have baked that in. I mean it was very different list of assumptions this year than last year and the way we’ve refined our models has been especially helpful.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Terry McEvoy of Stephens. Your line is now open.

Terry McEvoy

Analyst · Terry McEvoy of Stephens. Your line is now open

Just a quick question, I was wondering if you performed the goodwill impairment evaluation last quarter, last year you did it in October. The reason I ask is about 60% of your billing dollars of goodwill is connected to Amegy?

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · Terry McEvoy of Stephens. Your line is now open

Yes this is Paul. In accordance with GAAP, we are required as you know to continually monitor the valuation of the relative components of that relative to goodwill. So, yes in fact we have dutifully performed that in the fourth quarter.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our final question comes from the line of Brian Klock of Keefe, Bruyette and Woods. Your line is now open.

Brian Klock

Analyst · Keefe, Bruyette and Woods. Your line is now open

So, I’ll save my other questions for the Investor Day in a couple of weeks. But maybe ask another way, so on Page 11 in the income statement the other non-interest expense line item. Obviously, there are some things in there that appear to be non-recurring. How should we think about it sort of normalized level for that? Should it be some sort of maybe the average of the last three quarters or so, or I mean how should we think about what is a normal level for that line item?

James Abbott

Analyst · Keefe, Bruyette and Woods. Your line is now open

Yes Brian, this is James. I think that if you looked at the third quarter’s other non-interest expense line item and use that as a guide, that’s probably a reasonable expectation.

Brian Klock

Analyst · Keefe, Bruyette and Woods. Your line is now open

Okay thank you for your help.

Paul Burdiss

Analyst · Keefe, Bruyette and Woods. Your line is now open

Than our normal quarter than this quarter.

James Abbott

Analyst · Keefe, Bruyette and Woods. Your line is now open

Right, Brian at this level I agree with that.

James Abbott

Analyst · Keefe, Bruyette and Woods. Your line is now open

Okay, thank you very much everyone for joining the call today. Thank you, Sabrina for hosting and we appreciate all of your attendance. Please feel free to send additional questions to me and we'll try to get back to you as within a reasonable period of time tomorrow for sure. Thank you again for your time and have a great evening.