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Zions Bancorporation, National Association (ZION)

Q4 2024 Earnings Call· Tue, Jan 21, 2025

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Transcript

Shannon Drage

Management

Thank you, Matt, and good evening. We welcome you to this conference call to discuss our 2024 Fourth Quarter and Full Year earnings. My name is Shannon Drage, Senior Director of Investor Relations. I would like to remind you that during this call, we will be making forward-looking statements, although actual results may differ materially. We encourage you to review the disclaimer in the press release or Slide 2 of the presentation, dealing with forward-looking information and the presentation of non-GAAP measures, which applies equally to statements made during this call. A copy of the earnings release as well as the presentation are available at zionsbancorporation.com. For our agenda today, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Harris Simmons will provide opening remarks. Following Harris' comments, Ryan Richards, our Chief Financial Officer will review our financial results. Also with us today are Scott McLean, President and Chief Operating Officer; Derek Steward, Chief Credit Officer; and Chris Kyriakakis, Chief Risk Officer. After our prepared remarks, we will hold a question-and-answer session. This call is scheduled for 1 hour. I will now turn the time over to Harris Simmons.

Harris Simmons

Management

Thanks very much, Shannon, and good evening, everyone. I'd like to start-off our call by acknowledging the devastating wildfires, which started in Southern California earlier this month and continue to impact so many people. Our focus continues to be on the safety and well-being of our colleagues, customers and their families. We've been fortunate there have been no reported injuries or property loss on our people. And we're grateful for the first responders and charitable organizations who are working to protect so many people and to assist them in getting back on their feet. As it relates to anticipated credit losses related to damage from the wildfires, we have a very limited amount of residential exposure in the burn zones, due to insurance in place, we anticipate any losses or credit tax to be minimal. We have programs in place to work with borrowers that may need payment restructuring into the fires. Based on past experience with similar natural disasters, we expect any losses to be very low. Shifting now to performance. Key metrics for the year and the quarter are presented on Slide 3. We're pleased with the continued improvement in our financial performance relative to the fourth -- relative to the prior year. Fourth quarter adjusted pre-provision net revenue, which excludes most notably the impact of the FDIC special assessment for the 2023 bank failures, increased 19% relative to the prior year quarter. Net earnings for the year were $737 million or $4.95 per share. For the fourth quarter, earnings were $200 million or $1.34 per share. The net interest margin expanded for the fourth consecutive quarter, primarily due to interest-bearing liabilities repricing downward faster than earning asset yields. The margin was 3.05% for the quarter compared to 3.03% in the prior quarter and against its trough of…

Ryan Richards

Management

Thank you, Harris, and good evening, everyone. I will begin with a discussion of the components and associated performance drivers and pre-provision net revenue. Beginning with net interest income and net interest margin on Slide 6, you will see the five quarter trend for both measures, reflecting four consecutive quarters of improvement. During the quarter, the downward repricing of interest-bearing liabilities outpaced the pressure on asset yields. Net interest margin further benefited from a reduction of $1.4 billion in average short-term borrowings. Additional details on changes in the net interest margin are included on Slide 7. On the left-hand side of this page, we provided a linked quarter waterfall start outlining the key changes and key components of the net interest margin, incorporating changes in both rate and volume. The net interest margin expanded by 2 basis points sequentially due primarily to the lower cost of funding. This is reflected in the 23 basis points and 12 basis point margin improvements in the waterfall, attributable to deposits and borrowings, respectively. Improved funding costs were somewhat offset by the declines in earning asset yields and a lesser contribution from noninterest-bearing sources of funds. The right-hand chart of this slide shows a 14 basis point improvement in the net interest margin versus the prior year quarter, also benefiting from the improved cost of deposits. Moving to non-interest income and revenue on Slide 8. Customer-related non-interest income was $173 million for the quarter, an increase of 7.5% on a linked quarter basis and 15% versus the year ago quarter. We are pleased with the record performance of customer fees for the quarter and full year, driven in large part by capital markets as we continue to realize growth from our strategic investments. Capital markets were up 36% for the full year compared to…

Shannon Drage

Management

This concludes our prepared remarks. As we move to the question-and-answer section of the call, we request that you limit your questions to one primary and one follow-up question to enable other participants to ask questions. Matt, will you please open the line for questions?

Operator

Operator

Great. Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question here is from Manan Gosalia from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Manan Gosalia

Analyst

It looks like deposit betas on a spot basis are running close to 60% already. Can you talk about how you expect that to progress from here? I'm assuming there is still some benefit that's going to come with a lag. But at the same time, there's fewer rate cuts in the forward curve, which might impact how much more you can do. So if you can just run through some of that?

Ryan Richards

Management

Yeah. Thanks for the observation. I think it's fair to say that, so far, we've been pleased with the response of pricing prior response and very much in line with what we've discussed on previous calls about how we anticipated interest-bearing deposits to behave. And as you also know, there is a lag factor associated with different types of time deposits and broker deposits. So we've been in an athletic posture each time that the Fed has been in a position to reduce rates, that will remain true. And so, I think as we move forward with the prospect of another potential 25 basis point rate decrease during 2025, right now wouldn’t think of any other reason to expect and other than in-line performance with what we've seen thus far. Predicting beyond that, it would be really difficult to do at this point.

Manan Gosalia

Analyst

Got it. And for my follow-up, do you have – where your CET1 ratio is including AOCI for the quarter? And is that something you need to manage to especially given the volatility that we're seeing in the long end of the curve?

Ryan Richards

Management

It is something that we certainly are cognizant of, and I know that we periodically get the question about when might we take more additional capital actions and view is still uncertainty that is in the environment about where the Basal III end game rules reside. And even without that, there's sort of an increasing, I think, expectation that we'll be managing our capital inclusive of AOCI. So we do include in our appendix slides sort of the path that we see today with $2.4 billion in AOCI losses in the past one year, hence, about where that goes. And we certainly do think internally about what our excluding AOCI capital levels are with an expectation of continuing to grow capital so that over time that we are more sort of at median peer capital levels, so those are things that we do monitor and that we are comfortable with the glide path for any realistic expectation about what Basel II end game could be applicable for us.

Manan Gosalia

Analyst

So is it fair to say that if there is more volatility in the long end of the curve that it would only really impact when you think about buybacks as opposed to impacting how you grow your loan book?

Harris Simmons

Management

I think that's probably the case. I mean I think you'll see back in the appendix the projections with respect to how AOCI runs-off. And if you look at as kind of a proxy for this, if you look at tangible book value has been improving pretty rapidly. I think it's around 20%, 21%, something over the last 12 months. And so we expect that we don't know the final outline of what the rules are going to look like in the transition period, kind of how regulators will reengage with this. I think we'd certainly expect that AOCI will come back into capital, that's probably one thing that survive, but the timing of it is this is not entirely clear. But in the meantime, I think we feel like we're on a pretty good glide path to getting to the point where this will solve itself without having to do anything in a way of capital actions, it will probably continue to regard our buyback activity until we can see this with more clarity, that's how I think about it.

Manan Gosalia

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Bernard von Gizycki from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Bernard Von Gizycki

Analyst

Hey, guys. Good evening. I just wonder if you could just unpack a little bit more about the rate sensitivity, the model net interest income that you have from Page 13. The implied path of the 6.8% versus the 1.4% at 9/30, obviously, the difference in the Fed funds and then the big increase in the deposit beta from 58% from 36%. Just wonder if you could just walk through any of the assumptions that kind of update the previous quarter?

Ryan Richards

Management

Yeah. Listen, I think speaking to that deposit beta assumption that you quoted there on the interest-bearing deposits, that's pretty much in line with what we've been seeing. So that's in sync. I think one of the things that you've seen from us over time as we've grown more comfortable with the level of non-interest-bearing deposits and the behaviors there is that the implied assumption about the continued migration from non-interest-bearing into interest-bearing has been tightened over time. I think that's also allowed us to be a little bit more constructive about how we see NII sensitivity out one year, still benefiting from some fixed asset repricing that is still playing through the system and some of the latency and the repricing of time deposits with down rates still staying to benefit from that. So with a more stable and we hope and anticipate growing deposit base, supplanting wholesale fund sources. I think all that lends to a more constructive outlook.

Bernard Von Gizycki

Analyst

Great. And then I know you guys have talked in the past about getting the NIM back to mid-3%. Just based on like the model assumptions here, I think that's been discussed over maybe – over a couple of years. Just any idea is that something to think about for '26? Anything you can kind of give us for timing and any expectations on how we should think about that like kind of longer term NIM outlook?

Ryan Richards

Management

Yeah. Listen -- thank you for the question. We don't manage to a NIM outcome per se, but it's certainly true that with a more naturally sloped yield curve that we can stand to do better than what we've been experiencing before. So as we sort of look at where we've been in the not too distant past when things were more constructed that way. Having something in the mid-3s doesn’t seem like it’s out of reach. And so we think there’s potential to get back to those levels. But the timing of when that occurs is yet to be seen.

Bernard Von Gizycki

Analyst

All right. Great. Thanks for taking the questions.

Operator

Operator

Chris McGratty from KBW. Please go ahead.

Christopher McGratty

Analyst

Great. Thanks. Ryan, just on the balance sheet, some movement between liquidity and the bond portfolio in the quarter, could you help us, within your guide for NII help on just the total earning asset levels? Will you continue to use the bond portfolio as a source of funds. How should we be thinking about the earning assets in the next year? Thanks.

Ryan Richards

Management

Yeah. It's a good call out, Chris. I mean I think if you look at the related slide we have in terms of investment securities, money market, kind of a share of total earning assets that stayed pretty striving through with maybe just a touch down. But as you point out, year-over-year, we've seen that nice run-off in investment securities portfolio. And as I noted in my prepared remarks, we’re going to use those cash flows to sort of pay down more expensive wholesale cost of funding or invest in the loan growth. So I think if you look moving forward, you probably would have also heard from my prepared remarks that we're starting to do a little bit more and the reinvesting of those cash flows that are being kicked off from the investment securities portfolio. So perhaps tapering a little bit in terms of the run-off on the security side. But with the prospects that we shared with you of slightly increasing loan growth, we think there will be opportunities to deploy that in organic ways to support our compliance, our customers' growth objectives.

Christopher McGratty

Analyst

Okay. Great. Thanks, Ryan. And Harris, any comments about inorganic growth? Obviously, regulatory world is shifting in real time. But any thoughts about -- you have the branch deal that's going to close. Any other thoughts about potential M&A?

Harris Simmons

Management

Well, I think that as -- first, I take it just to step back and say, if you look at our pre-provision net revenue over the last several quarters. I mean it was ramping up really nicely until Silicon Valley and Signature Bank, if it all and that did a lot of damage. We've been kind of clawing our way back is where I think about it, we’re making steady progress. And getting back into a position where we have the currencies, the profitability to do something more is certainly top of mind. We're not out looking for opportunities per se, but we're in a position. We're increasingly, I think we're in a position where we could be doing deals that strategically made sense to us. We have, for a long time, systems conversions were front and center for us getting through a lot of kind of internal renovation. And that is now really behind us, and so in that respect, I think we're in pretty good shape. I think in terms of being prepared for anything that would come with sort of crossing $100 billion threshold, if that is still a thing in the new regulatory environment that is done upon us this week. I think we’re in a good shape that way. So I'd see it as possible with anything that otherwise pencils out well makes strategic sense, but it's not something that's kind of front and center for us.

Christopher McGratty

Analyst

Thank you very much.

Harris Simmons

Management

Yeah.

Operator

Operator

Questions is from Matthew Clark from Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Matthew Clark

Analyst

Hey. Good afternoon, everyone. Just first on the C&I credit where you realized some charge-offs. Can you just give us a sense for the type of business that is or was, and kind of what exactly happened there?

Derek Steward

Analyst

Sure. This is Derek. Thanks for the question. It actually was a long-time client of the bank, a 10 or 15 year client of the bank in the retail space. It was a very unique customer actually and we had banked the company for a long time. It was purchased by a private equity company. That, I think, between pushing to grow a little faster, along with some management challenges just created challenges for the company that led to the loss. It's pretty unique business and really nothing else like it in our portfolio, but that was what the situation was.

Matthew Clark

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. And then shifting gears to customer fees, capital markets up nicely. Can you give us a sense for the pipeline there? And do you think you can kind of build off that fourth quarter number given the change in environment or do you feel like, we'll step seasonally?

Scott McLean

Analyst

Yeah. No. Thank you. This is Scott McLean, and I appreciate the question. We've been talking about building this business over the last couple of years and our enthusiasm for -- we've really been adding the product capabilities, the risk structure, the technology structure. And in the fourth quarter, we just saw a really nice increase in just some of the basic products, loan syndications, interest rate products and our real estate capital markets business, which we've been saying for the last 1.5 years, we've been building out and the markets haven't been overly friendly up until the last six months or so. But we're starting to see a more regular flow there, and it produced meaningful revenue in the fourth quarter. But we've said, as you know, the investment -- capital markets type businesses are lumpy. But we spent a lot on the infrastructure here. We've got the people. We have very active calling programs with our commercial bankers, very pinpointed to capital markets opportunities, current and longer term. I think all that shoe leather should benefit us in the years to come. And then, we're also seeing -- we're seeing some -- certainly some continuation of just our basic products, things like treasury management, merchant services, our corporate trust business, which we don't talk about very often, it has a very large market share albeit shrinking market, but a significant position. It's just a nice business for us. So we should see continued progress, we think, because of all the hard work we've put into capital markets.

Harris Simmons

Management

And they start into the year with a solid pipeline. I think that’s the other thing I would add. So I think everything is therefore to continue to grow nicely.

Matthew Clark

Analyst

Great. Thanks for the color.

Operator

Operator

Next question is from Christopher Spahr from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Christopher Spahr

Analyst

Hi. Good afternoon. So this question is kind of related to the -- just obviously, the election and post-election and just the kind of the change in attitude (ph) and I see there is a big pop in energy, oil and gas growth, Slide 24, especially when you compare to the prior quarter. Just is there -- how much do you think that is -- might be election related? Is there more momentum to that? And what other areas could might growth commercial loan -- like it should be a little bit higher than moderate for the year?

Scott McLean

Analyst

Sure. This is Scott. I'll take that. Our energy portfolio outstandings were at about $3 billion, four, five years ago. They trended down during the 2020 downturn price volatility. We've been around $2 billion. And basically, we saw a $100 million increase in that portfolio from a little bit below $2 billion to a little bit above. And I think we have good opportunities there, pricing and credit structure has never been better as many banks have exited the market, and we're a long-time player with a long-time reputation. So we continue to hope it will be a nice source of C&I growth going forward. In terms of loan growth, in general, we were up about $2.1 billion average loans year-over-year, about a 3.5% increase. And our general sense is to your political comment, that small business, medium-sized business owners, they're just a little more optimistic. I think there's a sense that regulatory issues that confront small and medium-sized business could have been, maybe not much, but some. And so, I think we're a little more optimistic about C&I lending. We don't think our one to four family originations that go on the balance sheet will be strong in the coming year. So that will be a little of a drag, but we think C&I for the reasons you said and others has an opportunity to grow.

Christopher Spahr

Analyst

And then for my follow-up, this is for Harris. So Harris, you spent some time talking about regulation in the 2023 annual report calling out Basel III in that long-term debt proposal. I mean, obviously, you kind of talked about that just now, but what other areas of -- we'll call it, just comment [Technical Difficulty] approach do you might benefit for banks your size? Thank you.

Harris Simmons

Management

Well, I think sometimes, the death from 1,000 cuts is effective as having your head (ph) taken off. And the number and diversity of things coming out of the CFPB, some of which, I think of and just beyond the mark. You're seeing that in the legal challenges, etc., that have been made with respect to a lot of these things. The amount of time and energy that goes into things like, just internally, trying to prepare for the kind of climate disclosure regime that was coming at the industry. And I think a lot of things like that probably we'll get -- we just fade into the background for a while at least, maybe not permanently. But -- and I see what Travis Hill, the agenda he laid out, I think yesterday, it's just very sensible. It's meat and potatoes. It's sort of back to basics and I think for many banks, our own included, we've done a lot in the back to basics kind of categories of just building risk infrastructure commensurate with our ability to grow larger. And so just being able to focus outwardly, the message that I have to our own people, as I'm making kind of the circuit recently is that we've been very inwardly focused. I think we have -- I think the industry has, in a lot of respects over the last decade. And I think the message coming out of the new administration and the people coming in to the agencies is that we want a safe and a sound industry but one that facilitates growth. And that's why I find a self-optimistic that we're going to see more growth. I think it's going to be a really conducive environment for it. And I think there are worries of tariffs, things like that, that certainly could derail growth in the economy. But clearly, the crowd and control wants to see growth. It's a very growth oriented message that we're seeing coming from these people. So I'm very hopeful.

Christopher Spahr

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next question is from Anthony Elian from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Anthony Elian

Analyst

Hi, everyone. For your loan growth guide of slightly increasing, is that more half weighted in 2025 or do you expect the level of loan growth you've seen in the past couple of quarters to continue in the first half of this year?

Harris Simmons

Management

I know it's through the year. It's not so strong that it's going to matter a lot whether it's back half weighted or not. I expect to see pretty steady growth through the year personally.

Anthony Elian

Analyst

Thank you. And then for my follow-up, can you just provide more color on the increase in classified loans? I know you called out multifamily, industrial and office. But was that broad based across your footprint and any large credits that drove the increase this quarter? Thank you.

Derek Steward

Analyst

Well, Anthony, this is Derek. To answer the second question, what it was pretty granular in with the downgrades and the increase in classified or what was not a large -- just one large credit that increased. It also was distributed across our footprint in the geographies. As stated in the slide, $609 million were from -- was from CRE and $254 million was from multifamily, with $242 million from industrial. So that really drove it. And the story for industrial and multifamily is exactly what we said last quarter. It's construction delays, that are occurring are slower lease-up performance to plan issues, increased costs and just increases in expenses as well, combine that with the interest rate increase, and we’re seeing it moves to classified. At the same time, it does seem like it’s a matter of timing and most of these credits will work their way through. It’s just a little longer to reach stabilization and performance. And given our loan to values, we expect that they’ll just perform and either be able to be upgraded through progress or refinanced out over time.

Anthony Elian

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back to management for any closing comments.

Shannon Drage

Management

Thank you, Matt, and thank you to all for joining us today. If you have additional questions, please contact us at the e-mail or phone number listed on our website. We look forward to connecting with you throughout the coming months and appreciate your interest in Zions Bancorporation. This concludes our call.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you again for your participation.