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Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, Nov 3, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Archer Daniels Midland Company Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on a listen-only mode to prevent background noise. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Mark Schweitzer, Vice President-Investor Relations for Archer Daniels Midland Company. Mr. Schweitzer, you may begin.

Mark Schweitzer - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you, Stephanie. Good morning, and welcome to ADM's third quarter earnings conference call. Starting tomorrow, a replay of today's call will be available at adm.com. For those following the presentation, please turn to slide 2. The company's safe-harbor statement, which says that some of our comments constitute forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results. These statements are based on many assumptions and factors that are subject to risk and uncertainties. ADM has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC, concerning the assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in this presentation. And you should carefully review the assumptions and factors in our SEC reports. To the extent permitted under applicable law, ADM assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events. On today's call, our Chief Executive Officer, Juan Luciano, will provide an overview of the quarter. Our Chief Financial Officer, Ray Young, will review financial highlights and corporate results. Then, Juan will review the drivers of our performance in the quarter, provide an update on our scorecard, and discuss our forward look. And finally, they will take your questions. Please turn to slide 3. I will now turn the call over to Juan. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone, and thank you all for joining us today. This morning, we reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.60. Our adjusted segment operating profit was $684 million. Adjusted ROIC of 8.3% was 170 basis points above our cost of capital. The ADM team executed well in an environment very similar to the second quarter. Ag Services earnings were limited…

Operator

Operator

Certainly. Your first question comes from the line of Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Your line is open. Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Hi. Thank you. You might have kind of alluded to this in your comments, but I think you said that U.S. farmers will eventually commercialize their grain. Can you give us kind of a little bit more color on the degree to which they're unwilling to commercialize at today's prices, and what does that mean for your fourth quarter and kind of end-year EPS estimates, guys? Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. Thank you, Rob. Yes, certainly. U.S. farmers don't like these prices. And at this point in time, they are holders of grain. If we look at their normal pattern of commercialization of before the harvest, during the harvest and post-harvest, this year, we've seen that in corn, they probably sold about 30% of the new crop, while normally they will be about 45% by this time of the year. If we look at beans, they probably sold about 35% of the new crop. And normally, they will have averaged about 60%. We still believe that our Q4 earnings in Ag Services will grow versus Q3, but we'll probably see more commercialization of grain either in reais, that will depend probably on a weather event, where there is a concern about potentially South America maybe later on in December or something like that, or with the regular cash flow needs maybe during 2016. Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Okay. That's very helpful. Another question, I've heard rumblings about what the election in Argentina could mean. With the new leader coming in, it might lead to a reduction in tariffs or export duties. And…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kenneth Zaslow with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Patrick Chen - BMO Capital Markets

United States

Hi. Good morning. This is Patrick Chen for Ken. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hi, Patrick. Ray G. Young - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hey, Patrick.

Patrick Chen - BMO Capital Markets

United States

Just another question about Ag Services. I guess is the $850 million to $900 million number still at risk? Is there a structural risk given the farmers still like to hold grains longer, especially in light of the third consecutive large crop? Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. Let me give you some perspective. We do believe that the range is relevant for Ag Services. Given the conditions and given where we are in Q4, we know that Q4 will be better than Q3, but will be – will fall short of Q4 last year. So, probably this year, we may end up lower than that range, given the conditions of the U.S. dollar and the very strong crops in South America. But, let me give you some perspective, if we look at the last eight years, Ag Services has hit that range in seven of the last eight, and the only year in which it didn't, it was because of this 50-year drought that we had. So, I would say, at this point in time, we continue to maintain that that's just a fair range for Ag Services into the future.

Patrick Chen - BMO Capital Markets

United States

Great. Thanks for the color. Just switching gears a little bit to ethanol margins, when would get industry margins recover? It seems like there are a lot of headwinds right now. You have ethanol trading on a premium to gasoline, a weak real, improving Brazil's pricing competitiveness, and also China supposedly closing its borders to U.S. DGs. I guess how much cost savings can you realize in your plans to offset some of that? Thank you. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes. You get it right. The main thing that we can do to help ourselves certainly is continue to work on the cost of the plants, and we are evaluating. That is a constant process to see how much can we help ourselves into that, granted maybe dry mills are a little bit more limited in our ability to get savings than maybe a larger wet mill but we continue to work on that. I will say the dynamics at this point in time as we see it, Patrick, are there has been some good news in this quarter about China getting into the export destination roster, if you will. Some of the plants have maybe came back a little bit later from their maintenance, which provided a little bit of time. But as you said, medium term, we continue to trade as a premium to gasoline, which will have some impact in certain export destinations. That way, we continue to call the net exports about the same even if China is coming into the export destination roster. So, it will be – it will continue to flow depending on how much the industry will produce. We are positive about the demand. Demand is up in gasoline about 3% this year, and maybe it's going to be up 1% to 1.5% for next year. Exports continue to be robust. Ethanol is growing very, very fast in Brazil, and now with the increasing gasoline prices in Brazil, ethanol has become a little bit more expensive. Petrobras is in strike today so they are not producing that much oil, so maybe they need a little bit more ethanol. So, I would say at this point we can pick up with a little bit like the margins we have today going forward, and with hopes into the global domestic demand and keeping those export markets.

Patrick Chen - BMO Capital Markets

United States

Great. Thank you. I'll pass it along. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Patrick.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Thomas Simonitsch - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Good morning. This is Tom Simonitsch for Ann. Can you talk about your increased stake in Wilmar and the strategic rationale behind that investment? Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Sure, yes. Well, we have opportunistically acquired shares of Wilmar in the open market recently. And I say opportunistically because obviously they were relatively low with regards to their book value, and certainly the Singapore dollar also was very convenient for us to make that investment. You heard us before, Wilmar is a strategic partner and one of our largest customers, and we continue to be very committed to this relationship, to growing this relationship. Wilmar gives us a window and an exposure to tropical oils, to China oilseed crush, to consumer packaged products in China. So, it's a great way for us to participate in that. And we believe in our relationship, and we will continue to grow it over time.

Thomas Simonitsch - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Okay. Thank you. And also you mentioned with WILD Flavors facing demand headwinds in Q3, can you expand on this, especially in light of the expectation that WILD would perhaps be less volatile than other segments? Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes. I would say – listen, the trends are intact. We continue to see big push – or pull from customers in terms of the pipeline that we have. The pipeline continues to grow, if I quote it's 675 projects in the pipeline. At the end of October that number is like 805. So, it continues to grow. The segment is composed of many products and some of those products as we – you heard that we're building a plant in Brazil of specialty proteins. Well, at this point in time, we source everything from the plant in the U.S. Certainly, with the strong U.S. dollar, our ability to export to the world has been reduced. There are some countries that have some issues of importing like Venezuela, for example, even if our customers want to get the product. Some key markets – key emerging markets have been soft, whether it's called Middle East, whether it's Russia, whether it's China. And some of these products like emulsifiers or hydrocolloids are used in oil field drilling. And obviously, you see that the rig count going down in the U.S. with less drilling going on as oil prices have declined. So, several factors. I would say none of the fundamentals have changed into this business. We continue to be excited. We continue to be building capabilities. We have bought three companies in the last year with WILD, SCI and Eatem Foods. They are all on trend. They are all on target. So, we continue to feel very strong about it. It's a long-term play that we're building a great company for ADM here. And as long as synergies are on track and products are getting the pull from customers, we don't worry that much about these short-term headwinds.

Thomas Simonitsch - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

That's very helpful. Thank you. I'll pass it on.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Farha Aslam with Stephens. Your line is open.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Management

Hi. Good morning. Ray G. Young - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Good morning. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, Farha.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Management

Juan, could you give us some color on soy crush margins kind of around the world and what your outlook is going into the fourth quarter for that crushing and origination division? Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes, sure. So, crush margins continue to be very solid and very positive in the U.S. So, we're still running hard. Certainly, the U.S. has the best crush margins in the world, followed by soy crush margins in Europe. There's still good demand in Europe. And even if some soy meal from South America has started to show up, we still remain more skewed toward soy crushing than rapeseed crushing in Europe. South America has recovered a little bit and is doing better. It's coming third in the pecking order, if you will. And then probably lagging is China. We still have good demand for meal in China, but it's more hovering into the breakeven territory, if you will. So, going into Q4 and being halfway through Q4, if you will, as I said, the crush margins remain in decent state, and maybe you're going to see a slight decline of Q4 versus Q3 for oilseeds in general but still very solid.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Management

That's helpful. And then a theme throughout your comments has been the strong U.S. dollar. Is there opportunities for ADM to re-price its product, any actions you can take to make ADM more competitive given that the U.S. dollar likely will stay strong for somewhat an extended period of time? Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. I would say that the big issue is sometimes not that much the strong U.S. dollar that we can – as you said, we can commercially offset some of that. The issue is whether some currencies are very weak versus the dollar, whether you call it the real or whether the ruble. And that makes other origins much more competitive. Think about how competitive has been Brazil in the world market where Paraguay, with the same weather, with the same climate, hasn't been. It's not that Brazil has any different competitive advantage than Paraguay, it's just that the real has devalued significantly versus what the Paraguayan currency have done. So, two things. They ebb and flow and we profited from our origination in Brazil. Our volumes in Brazil are like – have exploded versus last year and we see part of that reflected in Ag Services. So, at the end of the day, the good thing is that there are large crops everywhere, and we're going to commercialize those crops. But it's certainly affects the timing of all that, Farha. And we're going through that period.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Management

Thank you. That's helpful.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Piken with Cleveland Research. Your line is open.

Michael Leith Piken - Cleveland Research Co. LLC

Management

Yeah. Good morning. Just wanted to dig a little bit deeper into the ethanol side of the business, specifically, just wanted to get your sense in terms of what you think total industry capacity is today, and out into 2016? It looks like in the last couple months, total production has gone down a little bit. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Listen, probably, total capacity is in the range of 14.8%, something in that range. The industry, Michael, has – normally takes two shutdowns for maintenance, one before the driving season, one post the driving season to be at the plants back in shape. Obviously, you have these corn dynamics in which corn is more plentiful or bases are lower in the West than in the East, so some of the East plants might have taken a little bit longer to come back from maintenance just because it was difficult maybe to get corn. And I think at the end of the day, with these low oil prices, domestic demand has been strong and with exports, net exports staying in this range of maybe 750 million gallons – and that's kind of where we are seeing this year, and maybe for next year – we see the balance is pretty similar to what we see now. Again, I think the two positive sides could be if we could get another 1%, 1.5% domestic demand growth and then we see ethanol in Brazil being more requested internally, and China, China went from like 3 million gallons last year of imports to maybe 60 million gallons this year. So, well that's going to bode well for 2016. And those are probably positive. On the negative side, capacity utilization in the industry continues to be in the maybe 2% and it should go a little bit higher to see margin expansion.

Michael Leith Piken - Cleveland Research Co. LLC

Management

Okay. Great. And then shifting over to the other side of Corn Processing, it looks like there's some favorable news on HFCS pricing into 2016. Maybe you could talk a little bit about when we might start to see some of those benefits roll through in any sort of order of magnitude from those favorable contracts? Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. Well, we're still finalizing some of those contracts, so I will refrain from making any specific comments about that. Normally, we clarify what happened at the end of the season in our next call. And I would say, from a P&L perspective, we see the impact kind of February to February, so starting in February – so it rolls into – in our P&L probably at the end of Q1. That's kind of what tends to happen. But we see the industry being tight, so industry is running at about 90% and our volumes have been strong.

Michael Leith Piken - Cleveland Research Co. LLC

Management

Terrific. Thanks. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

. Your next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Adam Samuelson - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Great. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, Adam. Adam Samuelson - Goldman Sachs & Co.: A bit of a longer-term question and I want to think about the current environment today relative to the $4 medium-term EPS target that you've laid out. The last two quarters have had EPS about $0.60, and there is some blood line noise in there, but if you think about getting to a $4 EPS number from here and understanding seasonality, 3Q is usually a seasonally softer quarter for you guys, you probably need to see something on the order of $175 million, maybe $200 million of quarterly operating income improvement here. And there's going to be moving pieces within the businesses in terms of what's performing well cyclically or not. But help us think about how we can bridge to that kind of level of performance over the medium term. Is there a particular part of the portfolio that really has to step up its performance whether cyclically or operationally, the future benefit from cost actions, future capital allocation? Just help us think about the moving pieces. Thanks. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes. Thank you, Adam. Thank you for the question actually. Listen, I will believe on the medium term, earnings range of $4 to $4.50 that we shared with you before has not changed. Although we face certain headwinds, we have looked at this and we have stress-tested actually with two scenarios recently. And we still believe that we are on track to deliver that. It may not happen exactly the way we…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Driscoll with Citi Research. Your line is open.

Cornell R. Burnette - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Broker

Good morning. This is Cornell on the line with a few questions on behalf of David. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hi, Cornell.

Cornell R. Burnette - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Broker

Okay. How is it going? I just wanted to start off on the WILD Flavors segment. I believe earlier it was mentioned that the company is still looking for that business to kind of come in line where you previously thought it would for the full year. However, it looks like the results in the quarter are really soft, I think, $70 million or so. It was down a lot from what you did in the second quarter. And I know that 2Q and 3Qs are supposedly the seasonally strong quarters for that segment, so it seemed like that segment significantly underperformed in the quarter. One, is that true? And then if that's the case, what would be the offset going forward that would keep the full-year guidance intact? Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. Thank you, Cornell. Let me verify to you – and we are learning all these businesses obviously because they are new to us, but Q3 we were expecting to be softer than Q2. This business is heavy on the summer season because it's all about beverages and the summer in Europe is very important. And so, the preparation for that summer is important. After that, the business the lower seasonality. So, there was some, as you described, of underperformance, but part was the normal seasonality. So, the underperformance as I described before, specialty proteins is – we export everything at this point from the U.S. So we're still building our plant in Brazil, and the strong dollar hurt some of the exports. Some of the destination markets have issues I described before whether it was Venezuela, whether it was Brazil, whether it was Russia. In the WILD Flavors, there was some softness in some accounts that are large produce that they came a little bit softer in Japan and in China. Nothing that this is structural, nothing that we worry significantly about. And we saw also in specialty proteins and some of these products that are soy-related, customers actually destocked because they saw the pricing of soybeans and all that coming down, there was not a lot of incentive for them to accumulate products or have forward moves on any of that. So, we saw a little bit of a destocking. So, the fundamental indicators about the strength of this business have not changed. The pull from customers, the number of projects, the excitement about all these solutions haven't changed. So, I would say just – it's just an adjustment in terms of destocking and emerging market softness, if you will.

Cornell R. Burnette - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Broker

Okay. Ray G. Young - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hey, Cornell. Just also – just – again, I think it's fair to say that we're all learning about the seasonal pattern of this business here. And so you should expect that the second quarter will always be the strongest quarter for WFSI. After the second quarter, you will see declines. Third quarter will come down because that's the seasonal pattern and then the fourth quarter and the first quarter generally will be the lowest quarters in terms of profitability for WFSI. So, I think once you've kind of gone through one year, you'll start understanding the seasonal pattern of this business for modeling. The second point I want to make is, as Juan reaffirmed – and we are for WILD Flavors, we're still on track for the first year accretion. We provided guidance that it will be $0.10 to $0.15 a share. We're still on track despite the headwinds that we've seen in terms of foreign exchange, in terms of the weakness of certain markets around the world. We're still on track towards lowering that range for WILD Flavors. And then thirdly, if you recall, I did provide some guidance earlier in the year for the entire WFSI segment. I said that it will be somewhere above $300 million – $300 million, $340 million for the calendar year. We're still on track towards the lower end of that range. So, I think it's fair to say the team has done a very good job in terms of confronting the headwinds that we've seen in the business, yet I'm still very, very comfortable that the financial results for this segment as well as for Wild Flavors are still consistent – again, on the lower end of the range but still consistent with what we're tracking in terms of helping this business actually move towards supporting our $4 to $4.50 earnings power over the medium term.

Cornell R. Burnette - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Broker

Okay. Very good. And if I can switch and then ask one question, if I may, about ethanol. You just kind of mentioned earlier you're looking at New York Harbor ethanol prices at about a $0.35 per gallon premium to gas and it seems like a very wide premium and obviously, historically, you've kind of traded at a discount. Going forward, do you believe that there could be some risk there just on the pricing front as you get deeper into the fourth quarter and some of those ethanol plants that are down start to come up and so you see production tick up and presumably inventories tick up within the industry? Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Cornell, there is always that risk that we face and that's why ethanol margins have remained at this level. I think the – I think exports have been resilient, and that gives me a lot of comfort. If we look at the top 12 export destinations of U.S. ethanol, year-to-date even within this dynamic, only two are down versus last year; 10 of them are up, or 3 of those 10 are actually new destinations. So, there is a lot of dynamic into this. And as some customers are looking at this and saying, okay, it's more extensive than gasoline, I don't export it anymore – or I don't import from the U.S. anymore, we're going to see other customers come into the market. Remember that ethanol continues to be the cheapest oxygenate, and all the other oxygenates are in the range of $2.50 even at these oil prices. So, there's always going to be an opportunity for ethanol to replace other oxygenates. But it will all hinge on how much capacity runs and how much capacity runs at full capacity.

Cornell R. Burnette - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Broker

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your last question comes from the line of Evan Morris with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Evan Morris - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Yeah. Hello? Hello? Hello? Hello? Hello? Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hello? Hello? Ray G. Young - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hello?

Evan Morris - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Yeah. I know, I'm sorry. Something must have been wrong with my phone wire. Just a question for you just on ethanol and a lot of the – sort of operational question, but just bigger picture, I mean, ethanol has clearly been very volatile and your stock is at times and certainly for the better part of the past year has been trading based on oil prices and the ethanol outlook. I mean, internally, I know you can't exit ethanol in its entirety given sort of the wet mill, dry mill balance. But how much thought have you guys put into internally looking at why maintain the dry mills and why not just sort of shift some of that ethanol production in the wet mill – shift away from ethanol on the wet mill side, just reduce your exposure going forward. What's still the reason to be there in the size and the capacity that you are? Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. Thanks for the questions. Listen, it's something that obviously we think about it very frequently. Our focus is to improve the competitiveness of our two dry mills. You understand there is very different dynamics between dry mills and wet mills.

Evan Morris - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Right. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So, obviously, that's what we're looking at, improving the competitiveness. Naturally, if we get to a point in which we cannot improve our cost position to the point of differentiation, if you will, for whatever reason, and if we believe that they cannot compete in a more challenging U.S. ethanol environment, we will naturally look at the various alternatives to maximize shareholder value. At this point in time, we haven't found the end of that and we continue to find opportunities. And we want to see – listen, it could be that the ethanol dry mill cost curve is very flat. And even if we improve, we don't get to a point of differentiation. And in that sense, we will like to make – we will probably need to make a decision. At this point, we are not there yet. We are still finding opportunities to differentiate our dry mills. But I'm not surprised with your question or your assessment. We constantly are reviewing that.

Evan Morris - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Okay. And then just a broader sort of acquisition strategy, someone asked earlier about the incremental investment in Wilmar and there's been some speculation regarding potential grain crop in Australia, being able to potentially complete that deal with a new prime minister and then others about exiting – if you can just – I think you've talked about having the capacity to do $5 billion to $6 billion or so in terms of an acquisition. Can you talk about, as you're thinking about it, now your acquisition strategy, the strong dollar, some of these opportunities may present themselves again, sort of bigger versus smaller, as you think about the acquisitions? Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes. So we are very comfortable and confident in our strategy. Our strategy doesn't call for the large M&A. Our strategy at this point in time includes for certain businesses, bolt-on M&As. Bolt-on M&As that actually what we do is that present opportunities to create platforms for ADM to continue to move its products into more stable and higher revenues. So, obviously if there is an opportunity that is too hard to pass, that is somehow inexpensive out there, we will look at those things. But that's not the main thrust of our story, of our strategy here. So, I would say regarding all the other comments, obviously we don't make comments on speculation. And there's been enough speculation. You're going to see more of us doing this kind of Eatem or Eaststarch in which we continue to strengthen our businesses as they need some platforms to continue to grow. Eatem provides an excellent culinary expertise, an excellent savory platform that we didn't have before. We will continue to do so. Very large M&A again is not something that we are seeking at this point in time. We might stumble into something, if it's very convenient and would provide big shareholder value creation. But we're not seeking them at this point.

Evan Morris - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Okay. Great. Thank you. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

I would like to turn the call back over to Juan Luciano for closing remarks. Juan Ricardo Luciano - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So, thank you for joining us today. Slide 15 notes an upcoming investor event. And as always, please feel free to follow up with Mark if you have any other questions. Have a good day and thanks for your time and interest in ADM.