Earnings Labs

Ameren Corporation (AEE)

Q3 2016 Earnings Call· Fri, Nov 4, 2016

$111.59

-0.53%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to Ameren Corporation's Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Doug Fischer, Senior Director of Investor Relations for Ameren Corporation. Thank you. Mr. Fischer, you may begin.

Doug Fischer

Analyst

Thank you and good morning. I am Doug Fischer, Senior Director of Investor Relations for Ameren Corporation. On the call with me today are Warner Baxter, our Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer; and Marty Lyons, our Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer, as well as other members of the Ameren management team. Before we begin, let me cover a few administrative details. This call is being broadcast live on the Internet and the webcast will be available for one year at our website at ameren.com. Further, this call contains time sensitive data that is accurate only as of the date of today's live broadcast and redistribution of this broadcast is prohibited. To assist with our call this morning, we have posted on our website a presentation that would be referenced by our speakers. Acronyms used in the presentation are defined in the glossary on the last page. To access this, please look in the Investors section of our website under Webcasts and Presentations and follow the appropriate link. Turning to Page 2 of the presentation, I need to inform you that comments made during this conference call may contain statements that are commonly referred to as forward-looking statements. Such statements include those about future expectations, beliefs, plans, strategies, objectives, events, conditions and financial performance. We caution you that various factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. For additional information concerning these factors, please read the forward-looking statement section in the news release we issued today and the forward-looking statements and risk factor sections in our filings with the SEC. Warner will begin this call with comments on third quarter financial results, full year 2016 earnings guidance and a business update. Marty will follow with a more detailed discussion of third quarter results and an update on financial and regulatory matters including 2017 earnings considerations. We will then open the call for questions. Before Warner begins, I would like to mention that all per share amounts discussed during today's presentation, including earnings guidance are presented on a diluted basis unless otherwise noted. Now here is Warner who will start on Page 4 of the presentation.

Warner Baxter

Analyst

Thanks Doggie. Good morning everyone, and thank you for joining us. Today we announced third quarter 2016 earnings of $1.52 per share compared to earnings of $1.41 per share in last year's third quarter. This earnings increase reflected higher electric sales to residential loan and commercial customers driven by warmer summer temperatures. The earnings comparison also benefited from increased FERC regulated transmission and Illinois Electric Distribution infrastructure investments made under modern constructive regulatory frameworks in order to better serve our customers. These favorable items were partially offset by lower electrics sales to the new Madrid Aluminum smelter; historically Ameren Missouri's largest customer. Earlier this year operations at this smelter were suspended and it remains shutdown. Overall, our third quarter results were strong as our team continued to successfully execute our strategy. And I am pleased to report that -- for the second time this year, we have raised our 2016 earnings guidance. Our new guidance range is $2.65 to $2.75 per share, up from our prior range of $2.45 to $2.65 per share, reflecting the strong year-to-date results. Turning to Page 5, here we reiterate our strategic plan. We continue to successfully execute the strategy and remain convinced it will deliver superior of long-term value to both, our customers and shareholders. I'd like to take a few moments and highlight some of our year-to-date accomplishments towards this end. To begin, we continue to strategically allocate significant amounts of capital to those businesses whose investments are supported by regulatory frameworks that provide fair, predictable and timely cost recovery; and also deliver long-term benefits to our customers. This capital allocation is illustrated in the graphic on the right side of this page. As you can see, year-to-date we've invested almost $1 billion of capital in jurisdictions with fee supportive regulatory frameworks. This…

Marty Lyons

Analyst

Thanks, Warner. Good morning everyone and turning now to page 13 of our presentation. As Warner mentioned we reported third quarter 2016 earnings of $1.52 per share compared with earnings of $1.41 per share for last year's third quarter. Here we highlight factors that drove the $0.11 cents per share year over year increase. Warmer temperatures increased earnings by an estimated $0.11 per share versus 2015 and $0.10 per share versus normal conditions as we experienced the fourth hottest third quarter including the hottest September since 1970. Increased investments in electric transmission and distribution infrastructure in our ATXI and Ameren Illinois businesses lifted earnings by $0.09 per share including changes and allowed returns on equity compared to the year ago period. With regard to returns on equity third quarter 2016 results from our first regulated transmission businesses benefited from a temporarily higher ROE as compared to the prior period reflecting the expiration in May of the fifteen month refund period for the second MISO ROE complaint kit. The first order in the first complaint case then lowered the ROE in late September, the 10.82% including our 50 basis point adder. Turning to our Illinois electric distribution business third quarter results reflected a ROE under formulaic rate making of 8.29% compared to 8.7% for the year ago period. The third quarter 2016 allowed ROE was based on an assumed average 30 year Treasury rate of 2.49% for the full year 2016. Factors that had an unfavorable effect on third quarter earnings comparisons included the loss of sales to the new Madrid smelter and increased Ameren Missouri depreciation expense which reduced earnings by $0.05 per share and $0.02 per share respectively. And finally the year over year third quarter impacts of Ameren Missouri's 2015 energy efficiency plan, for earnings neutral as the…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Greg [ph] with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Yes, hi, thank you. I was wondering if the sale of the Noranda's smelter will have -- how that would impact your case and ongoing operations and recovery.

Warner Baxter

Analyst

Hi, Greg this is Warner. Glad to have you join us, so in terms of the scale of the Noranda's smelter, frankly not sure if that has really any impact on the case. That sale has been completed, not sure exactly what the future is of the smelter at this stage, but we don't see it having any particular impact on the case, Michael Moehn, our President, Ameren; any further comment on that?

Michael Moehn

Analyst

I think that's right. Warner I mean we are in the process of sitting down with the new owners trying to really understand what those plans are, my sense is that it's all it's a long recovery and as Warner said I don't think there's an impact on this case.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back to management for closing comments.

Michael Moehn

Analyst

Yes, we appreciate the comment question, Gregg; and I know a number of you are probably holding your questions for next week, we as a management team look forward to seeing many of you down at EEI at the Financial Conference, and look forward to having further dialogue and answering your questions. With that, I will turn it over to Doug to wrap up the call.

Doug Fischer

Analyst

Thank you for participating in this call. We remind you again that a replay of the call will be available for one year on our website. If you have questions, you may call the contacts listed on our earnings release. Financial analyst increase should be directed to me, Doug Fisher, or associate Andrew Kirk. Media should call Joe Mellencamp, our contact numbers are on the release. Again, thank you for your interest in Ameren and have a great day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.