Earnings Labs

Ameren Corporation (AEE)

Q4 2016 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 16, 2017

$112.23

-0.03%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Ameren Corporation Fourth Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Doug Fischer, Senior Director of Investor Relations for Ameren Corporation. Thank you, Mr. Fischer, you may begin.

Doug Fischer

Analyst

[Technical Difficulty] broadcast live on the Internet and the webcast will be available for one year on the amereninvestors.com website. Further, this call contains time-sensitive data that is accurate only as of the date of today’s live broadcast and redistribution of this broadcast is prohibited. To assist with our call this morning, we have posted on the amereninvestors.com website a presentation that will be referenced by our speakers. To access this, please look in the Investors News and Events section of this website under Events and Presentations. Acronyms used in the presentation will be defined in the glossary on the last page. Turning to Page 2 of the presentation please note that comments made during this conference call may contain statements that are commonly referred to as forward-looking statements. Such statements include those about future expectations, beliefs, plans, strategies, objectives, events, conditions and financial performance. We caution you that various factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. For additional information concerning these factors, please read the forward-looking statements section in the news release we issued today and the forward-looking statements and risk factors sections in our filings with the SEC. Warner will begin this call with an overview of 2016 results, a business update and comments on our outlook for 2017 and beyond. Marty will follow with more detailed comments on our financial results and outlook. We will then open the call for questions. Before Warner begins, I would like to mention that all per share earnings amounts discussed during today’s presentation, including earnings guidance are presented on a diluted basis, unless otherwise noted. Now here is Warner, who will start on Page 4 of the presentation.

Warner Baxter

Analyst · Ladenburg Thalmann. Please proceed with your question

Thanks, Doug. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us. Today, we announced 2016 earnings of $2.68 per share compared to core earnings of $2.56 per share for 2015. Once again, we delivered another year of solid earnings growth driven by the successful execution of our strategy. Marty will discuss the drivers of our 2016 earnings results in a few minutes. But first, I want to highlight some of the key actions we took to successfully execute our strategy in 2016 for the benefit of our customers and shareholders. Starting with our strategy to prudently invest in and operate our utilities in a manner consistent with existing regulatory frameworks. We continue to allocate significant amounts of capital to those businesses that are supported by modern constructive regulatory frameworks for the benefit of our customers. In fact, we invested $2.1 billion in utility infrastructure last year with two-thirds, over $1.3 billion, going to projects in the FERC regulated electric transmission and Illinois regulated electric and natural gas distribution businesses. A significant portion of the $1.3 billion was invested in the Illinois Rivers project, a new high-voltage transmission line, which will span 385 miles across the state of Illinois. This project remains on schedule for completion in 2019 with 4 of its 9 line segments energized, including 2 river crossings and 8 of 10 substations now in service. This strategic allocation of capital and effective project execution, combined with disciplined cost management, meaningfully contributed to the solid financial results I just discussed. Turning to Missouri, in order to earn a fair return on our electric business, we filed a rate review request in July with the Missouri Public Service Commission. We are seeking to recover costs related to infrastructure investments made for the benefit of customers and to remove the negative…

Marty Lyons

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question

Thank you, Warner and good morning everyone. I am turning now to Page 13 of our presentation. As Warner mentioned, we reported 2016 earnings of $2.68 per share compared with core earnings of $2.56 per share for the prior year. And as you can see, there was no difference between GAAP and core results for 2016. On Page 14, we highlight factors that drove the $0.12 per share year-over-year increase in 2016 earnings compared to 2015 core results. As discussed in today’s press release, we now consider Ameren to have four reportable segments. You can see the 2015 and 2016 comparative earnings per share contributions of these segments graphically at the right where we show Ameren Missouri in green representing all of the operations of Ameren Missouri; Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution in dark blue, Ameren Illinois Natural Gas in light blue and last, but certainly not least, Ameren Transmission in orange, which is composed of the FERC-regulated electric transmission businesses of Ameren Illinois and ATXI. We believe that analyzing and reporting results in this manner is appropriate given the unique regulatory framework associated with each segment and the manner in which we allocate capital and which to assess performance over time. We hope you find this new segment presentation useful. So then diving into the comparative earnings results, let’s start with Ameren Transmission, where the earnings per share contribution increased from $0.34 in 2015 to $0.48 in 2016. This 41% growth was driven by increased infrastructure investments at both ATXI and Ameren Illinois which both operate under constructive FERC formulaic ratemaking, coupled with higher average earned returns on equity. In 2016, our Transmission segment benefited from a temporarily higher FERC-allowed ROE as a result of the expiration in May of 2016 of the 15-month refund period for the second MISO…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. In the interest of time, we ask that you please limit yourselves to one question and one follow-up and re-queue for any additional questions. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann. Please proceed with your question.

Brian Russo

Analyst · Ladenburg Thalmann. Please proceed with your question

Hi, good morning.

Warner Baxter

Analyst · Ladenburg Thalmann. Please proceed with your question

Good morning Brian.

Brian Russo

Analyst · Ladenburg Thalmann. Please proceed with your question

The $1 billion of incremental investment opportunities in Missouri, would that require external equity needs?

Warner Baxter

Analyst · Ladenburg Thalmann. Please proceed with your question

Brian, I think as we think about that extra $1 billion, obviously we are pursuing changes in the Missouri framework that would allow us to actually move forward with those to the extent that we have the opportunity to make those investments for the benefit of customers. What we will do Brian, at that point is step back and look at our overall capital plan, assess and reassess what we have got in that plan and also step back and reassess our financing. So I think it’s premature that we would need to issue any additional equity or that we would issue additional equity. We will take a step back and look at our overall capital expenditure and financing plans. Of course, we do have a very strong balance sheet today. And we have very strong credit metrics relative to our ratings. So we will assess all of those things as we move forward to the extent we have that opportunity.

Brian Russo

Analyst · Ladenburg Thalmann. Please proceed with your question

Okay. And at the Missouri legislature, it’s my understanding that there are three bills being proposed yet your comments and the presentation slides focus on Senate Bill 190, I am just curious to know why, is that – does 190 have a higher likelihood of success versus the other two?

Warner Baxter

Analyst · Ladenburg Thalmann. Please proceed with your question

Hi Brian, this is Warner. Couple of comments, yes, in December, three bills were filed. Senate Bill 190, which we spent most of our time on, but then there are two other bills Senate Bill 214 and Senate Bill 215. Senate Bill 214 really is very similar to the performance based rate-making bill that was filed last year and then Senate Bill 215 is similar to what I would say enabling language. Our focus right now and those in the industry is on Senate Bill 190. We believe when you take all the stakeholder input that we have had since last session and even in this session, it reflects many of the inputs that we have received from stakeholders and so that’s our focal point now. Those other two bills are still out there, but we are focused on Senate Bill 190.

Brian Russo

Analyst · Ladenburg Thalmann. Please proceed with your question

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Larry Lau with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Larry Lau

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question

Thanks for taking my question. I just want to talk a little bit about the commission in Missouri, they did a review of the remaking framework last December I believe, are they still involved in the process or has it – has your focal point kind of shifted to the legislator at this point?

Warner Baxter

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question

And so look, I am going to turn it over to Michael Moehn who overseas our Missouri operations. Michael, you can comment a little bit about the process the commission has gone through in the past and then sort of where we are at.

Michael Moehn

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question

Sure, absolutely. Yes. I mean look, the workshop that occurred over the summer was a productive process. Obviously, we participated a great deal on that. We are appreciative of all the hard work that was put into it. I think there were some constructive recommendations that came out of that from the Missouri Public Service Commission. And look yes, we obviously stay close to them and are engaged with them about this legislative process and continue to get feedback from them.

Larry Lau

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question

Thanks. And I just want to quickly jump to financing needs, I know you talked about your cash flow plan for 2017, but with tax reform, is there strong consideration for financing at the transmission level or at the holding company level, I think historically, you have always used holding company leverage for your transmission investments?

Marty Lyons

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question

Yes, sure. Well, it’s something that’s actively under consideration. Appreciate your question about our plans to fund our capital expenditures and our maturities this year. As we noted on the slides, they have about $675 million of maturities this year in June. At Ameren Missouri, we have got a $425 million maturity. And then in November, we have got $250 million maturity at Ameren Illinois. And so as we look ahead this year few things, we expect that midyear following that maturity at Missouri, we would likely do a financing there. In late in the year in November, December after that maturity at Ameren Illinois, we would also plan to do a financing there. There, I think not only to refinance the maturity, but also some of the capital expenditures that we have had through the year in Ameren Illinois. And then of course as you mentioned, we have been financing the transmission business and the growth there really through the use of parent company debt, long-term and short-term debt. As we move through the year, financing additional infrastructure investment, our short-term debt balances would grow and so it’s likely around midyear that we would execute some sort of a long-term financing and we will provide you greater details on our thoughts there as we move through the year, but you identified say the relevant considerations whether to do that long-term financing at the parent or at the transmission entity down at ATXI. So, those are things that we are assessing. We do, like I say, expect that we will do execute on long-term financing around midyear, but those details are still being thought through and we will share more with you later in the year.

Larry Lau

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question

Alright, thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Gregg Orrill with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Gregg Orrill

Analyst · Gregg Orrill with Barclays. Please proceed with your question

Yes, thank you. Just around the fourth quarter results, were there any drivers that you could provide around that weather impacted weather or otherwise? And then just to confirm around the Missouri stipulation, was that unanimous or not?

Marty Lyons

Analyst · Gregg Orrill with Barclays. Please proceed with your question

Sure, Gregg. This is Marty. Let me start with the Q4 results. So, with regard to the Q4 results compared to the prior year, weather was a positive, in fact, it was about a $0.06 positive versus prior year, but versus our expectations which revolved around normal weather, weather was a negative about $0.01. We had sort of a warm year last year, including a warm fourth quarter. So, it was a bit of a negative compared to expectations for the quarter. Of course, we benefited from continued infrastructure investments. Obviously that was a benefit in the fourth quarter versus the prior year. We did have a lower effective tax rate in the fourth quarter versus last year. Though I will tell you that versus our expectations, it was a little higher than expected, so tax issues or items were a bit of a negative versus in our expectations coming into the fourth quarter. And then again going back compared to prior years, we had lower benefits from the energy efficiency programs in Missouri. You will recall that in 2015 as we were coming to the end of that first energy efficiency program, we had high take rates, if you will, on the incentives we are providing to customers and that translated into some benefits being recognized by the company in late 2015 that didn’t recur then in 2016. And so those were some of the big things. Then of course, don’t forget about the year-over-year impact of the New Madrid smelter load loss which was obviously a negative in 2016 versus ‘15. So again compared to prior year plus on weather, plus on investment returns, plus on the effective tax rate, minus on the energy efficiency impacts and a minus in terms of the New Madrid smelter, that’s kind of how it all shakes up compared to the prior year, but again compared to expectations, I would say a little bit lower than our expectations coming into the quarter due to some tax items and weather. So, how we shake all that up? And then I think your second question, we will turn it over to – back to Michael Moehn.

Michael Moehn

Analyst · Gregg Orrill with Barclays. Please proceed with your question

Yes, with respect to the agreement in principle, it is with all the major parties I would say at this point, the staff, the Office of Public Counsel, several industrial groups, division of energy. So, clearly the major parties in the case. Once we file the stipulation and agreement with the commission, I hope it to be unanimous at the end of that, but it’s just a bit premature to say that.

Gregg Orrill

Analyst · Gregg Orrill with Barclays. Please proceed with your question

Okay, thank you.

Warner Baxter

Analyst · Gregg Orrill with Barclays. Please proceed with your question

Thanks, Gregg.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to Doug Fischer for closing remarks.

Doug Fischer

Analyst

Thank you for participating in this call. Let me remind you again that a replay of the call will be available for one year on our website. If you have questions, you may call the contacts listed on our earnings release. Financial analyst inquiries should be directed to me, Doug Fischer or my associate, Andrew Kirk. Media should call Joe Mellencamp. Our contact numbers are on the release. Again, thank you for your interest in Ameren and have a great day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today’s teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation and have a nice day.