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Ameren Corporation (AEE)

Q2 2025 Earnings Call· Fri, Aug 1, 2025

$111.97

-0.20%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to Ameren Corporation's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Andrew Kirk, Senior Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Modeling for Ameren Corporation. Thank you, Mr. Kirk. You may begin.

Andrew Kirk

Analyst

Thank you, and good morning. On the call with me today are Marty Lyons, our Chairman, President, Chief Executive Officer; and Michael Moehn, our Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; as well as other members of the Ameren management team. This call contains time-sensitive data that is accurate only as of the date of today's live broadcast and redistribution of this broadcast is prohibited. We have posted a presentation on the amereninvestors.com homepage that will be referenced by our speakers. As noted on Page 2 of the presentation, comments made during this conference call may contain statements about future expectations, plans, projections, financial performance and similar matters, which are commonly referred to as forward-looking statements. Please refer to the forward-looking statements section in the news release we issued yesterday as well as our SEC filings for more information about the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. Now here's Marty, who will start on Page 4.

Martin J. Lyons

Analyst

Thanks, Andrew. Good morning, everyone. In Ameren, we power the quality of life for millions across Missouri and Illinois. Our strategic approach is built on 3 fundamental pillars: making prudent investments in rate-regulated energy infrastructure, advocating for responsible energy policies and continuously optimizing our operations to create long-term sustainable value for our customers, communities and shareholders. This strategy is not just about keeping the lights on. It is about paving the way for a cost effective, more reliable and resilient energy grid that meets our customers' growing needs and driving regional growth for decades to come. As highlighted on Page 5, we made solid progress on our key strategic objectives in the first half of the year, which will help us deliver on these commitments to our customers and shareholders. During the first half of the year, we invested over $2 billion in critical infrastructure, advanced key regulatory proceedings and delivered strong operational performance, all while keeping our average electric rates below the national and Midwest averages. In the second quarter, we experienced a high number of severe weather events, including an EF3 tornado on May 16 and that spanned a mile wide and traveled 23 miles through Central St. Louis County and Northern parts of St. Louis City and into Illinois. This tornado caused extensive damage and widespread outages across Ameren Missouri and Ameren Illinois. We deployed more than 2,700 field personnel in the days following the tornado including Ameren crews, contractors and supporting resources from across the Midwest, who responded swiftly and safely, rebuilding damaged infrastructure, replacing nearly 1,000 poles and restoring service to more than 290,000 customers. Weather events like those experienced earlier this year underscore the importance of our ongoing investments in a more resilient energy grid. Enhancements like upgraded substations, composite poles designed to withstand…

Michael L. Moehn

Analyst

Thanks, Marty, and good morning, everyone. Turning now to Page 14 of our presentation. Yesterday, we reported second quarter 2025 earnings of $1.01 per share compared to earnings of $0.97 per share for the second quarter of 2024. The key factors that drove the increase are highlighted by segment on this page. Our investments to strengthen the energy grid and provide more energy resources to serve our customers to continue to be the primary driver of earnings growth across the company. In addition, we continue to experience solid customer growth at Ameren Missouri, where total normalized retail sales over the trailing 12 months through June increased across all customer classes with an overall increase of approximately 1%. Moving to Page 15. Due to strong year-to-date performance, we are well positioned to deliver earnings per share in the top half of our 2025 guidance range. Here, we have outlined select earnings considerations for the remainder of the year, including the expected quarterly earnings impact from the constructive resolution of Ameren Missouri's 2024 electric rate review. Further, I'd like to also highlight the Commission approved a unanimous settlement in our Ameren Missouri 2024 gas rate review last month. New rates for our natural gas customers will take effect on September 1. As mentioned, normalized sales in Missouri have remained strong. The strength is particularly evident in the industrial class, with sales up more than 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis through June. Growth in this sector has been supported primarily by ongoing manufacturing expansions and the continued growth of new digital and communication services firms. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we expect sales growth from a few new small-scale data centers, along with continued strength in the manufacturing sector. We continue to maintain disciplined cost management throughout the…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is coming from Jeremy Tonet of JPMorgan.

Jeremy Bryan Tonet

Analyst

Just wanted to touch base on data center load, if I could here. We've seen a number peers lift their pipeline this quarter I was just wondering if you could talk a bit more about what Ameren sees here with regards to economic development coming to the service territory and outlook for future growth here.

Martin J. Lyons

Analyst

Yes. You bet, Jeremy. I'll tell you, we remain really excited about the opportunities we have ahead of us. we continue to see really robust interest and really strong momentum in the second quarter and here into the third with the data center developers and hyperscalers. Earlier this year, we bumped up the data centers with -- in our pipeline with signed construction agreements, as you know, to 2.3 gigawatts of signed construction agreements. And I'd say in Q2 and in Q3, as we've gotten through July, we're right where we expected to be. We filed our tariff, our proposed rate structure, if you will, in Q2. And now we're actively engaged with hyperscalers, negotiating ESAs aligned with that tariff that we proposed to the Missouri Public Service Commission. And -- we feel good about the tariff that we filed, and we're working through that. In the meantime, I can tell you that developers and the hyperscalers are asking us to study expansion relative to the existing sites where we have construction agreement. And that simply adds to our excitement because I think it extends the pipeline of investments and jobs and economic development for our region. And of course, the sales growth opportunities we have beyond 2032, which we've outlined our expectations for that on Slide 7. So conversations, the work we're doing continues to progress as expected, and we're real excited about the outlook.

Michael L. Moehn

Analyst

Jeremy, it's Michael here. I agree with the anything that Marty said there on the data center side. But as I indicated in my talking points, I mean, I think just foundationally, the overall economy just remains very strong in our service territory here. on that trailing 12 months, we said we saw 1% growth overall. It was in every class residential one, commercial one, industrial, in particular, about 2.5%. And I know there's a lot of focus on the data center, so rightly so. But I mean, there is some really good momentum just from a manufacturing perspective, which obviously has jobs associated with it. You talked about this. Air dominance contract that was awarded to Boeing. It's probably a $20-plus billion investment over time in the F47. Unilever has had some nice expansions, GM, et cetera. They're smaller data centers that are going downtown. I know they don't get quite the same attention, but these are kind of starting out of 5 megawatts ramping to 25 over the course of the next couple of years. So it does provide, I think, just a nice backdrop into the overall economic development opportunity.

Jeremy Bryan Tonet

Analyst

Got it. So nothing to read into the unchanged pipeline here. These things are lumpy and happen when they happen?

Martin J. Lyons

Analyst

Yes. I would say the pipeline is -- this is Marty, by the way, Jeremy, the pipeline remains extremely strong, both in Missouri and Illinois. So no change in the number of construction agreements signed, but the pipeline of opportunity is still very large, folks looking at data center development in both Illinois and Missouri in the near term. But as I want to highlight again, we're seeing some extension of that pipeline as well as some of these developers and hyperscalers are really asking about expansion opportunities beyond the current data centers that have been identified and looking at expansion opportunities, which we're studying along with them. So yes, the pipeline remains really strong and feel really good about the data center construction agreements that we have. And as you know, the 2.3 gigawatts assigned construction agreements really marries up very well with the sales expectations that we've outlined previously. I mean we have sort of a midpoint of expected growth in Missouri of about 1.5 gigs of sales out through 2032 that aligns with that 5.5% sales growth. But as outlined in our integrated resource plan we filed earlier this year in Missouri, we're investing in generation that could serve up to 2 gigs by 2032. And even more beyond that. And we think that marries up real well with that 2.3 gigawatts of signed construction agreements. And again, just very happy with the progress we're making with the end-use customers with hyperscalers in terms of negotiation of energy services agreements that would allow us to serve them as they move into these data centers and ramp up load.

Jeremy Bryan Tonet

Analyst

Got it. That's very helpful there. And maybe continuing with the thought. We've seen a number of peers firming spots in the turbine slot queue. If higher growth does materialize, has Ameren look to derisk turbine slots needed here for any growth beyond the preferred resource plan?

Michael L. Moehn

Analyst

Yes, Jeremy, it's Michael here. Look, again, we feel good about the near-term process we've talked about this with respect to the 2 simple cycles that we have coming online here in '27, '28 teams actively got in front of the queue there, long lead time materials, as Marty talked about, got shovels in the ground. A lot of work to be done there, but feeling good about meeting those in-service dates for '27 and '28. We have that combined cycle, which is out there in 2031, some active conversations going on at this point. I think I may have indicated at 1 point we were in the process of going through an RFP. I think over the course of the next 60, 90 days, we'll have locked that in. But I think the preliminary discussions are the teams feeling good about that time line that 2031 and that's obviously a big project. So beyond that, we continue to stay flexible and agile, but that's what we got going on at the moment.

Martin J. Lyons

Analyst

Jeremy, this is Marty. Just to add to what Michael said. I mean he's absolutely right. I mean our focus is on making sure we shore up the resources to be able to execute the preferred resource plan that we've got out there, marries up very well again with the low growth opportunities we're seeing. But as I said on one of our prior calls, I mean, to the extent that the load growth ultimately looks like it may exceed some of what we've outlined in our Integrated Resource Plan and what we've got on Slide 7, we're certainly exploring other opportunities to enhance our generation portfolio to be able to serve that incremental sales growth. But as Michael said, our focus right now is really bringing this 1.5 to 2 gigs of sales growth by 2032 to fruition and building the resources to serve it, but at the same time, to your point, exploring opportunities to expand beyond that.

Jeremy Bryan Tonet

Analyst

Got it. That's helpful. And if I could just round out the thought quickly here. Just wondering, as far as access to gas needed for the plans, as you outlined here, have you signed up for a sufficient gas transmission today. And is there a need for any new pipeline? Or can this all be satisfied with existing pipe?

Michael L. Moehn

Analyst

Yes. We feel pretty good about our position today there, Jeremy. Again, this is Michael. The Meramec facility that we're repowering it obviously had gas at it already. We had some peaking units there. Rush Island, will have to do some work on repurposing that site, but feel good about what we need to get done there. And then for the combined cycle, there's also a transmission line that's very, very close to that plant. And so we have -- we'll be able to tap into that and feel good about the work that needs to get done between now and then as well.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from Julian Dumolin Smith of Jefferies.

Brian J. Russo

Analyst

It's Brian Russo on for Julian. Just a follow-up on some of your existing large load customers requesting studies for, I guess, expansions. I mean, how meaningful is that? Is there any sort of time line? Maybe just put it in the context with the 2.3 gigawatts you're referencing.

Martin J. Lyons

Analyst

Well, we do think it's meaningful for the reasons I stated. I think that the opportunity for economic growth and development in the region, even beyond the 2.3 gigawatts that have been signed as construction agreements, I think it's exciting for our communities because of the jobs it brings, long-lasting jobs, the tax base it brings, et cetera. So I think that's all good. it's hard to say right now what the timing of that would be right now. We think about it as additive to the length of, say, the pipeline of growth that we've got. And we'll know more, Brian, as we sign some of these ESAs and we get deeper into the analysis of those growth opportunities. We really see the ESAs, these energy services agreements as outlining the ramp rates for the load that we would expect associated with the 2.3 gigawatts of signed construction agreements. Again, we've outlined in on Slide 7, what we anticipate that ramp rate to be based upon conversations we've had with the hyperscalers, the ultimate customers, but ultimately, the ESAs will outline sort of the minimum expected ramp rate over this period. And I think that will even better firm up the load growth expectations that we've got. But we see the conversations we're having, again, is very positive and we provide incremental growth. Right now, we're thinking beyond that 2032 time frame, but we'll see based on the discussions that we have.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is coming from Paul Patterson of Glenrock Associates.

Paul Patterson

Analyst

So on the 2.1, MISO awards, there has been a complaint that was filed on Wednesday, which you guys are probably very familiar with from a different bunch of state commissions, not your state commissions, but Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, Montana, I think. What are you -- how do you -- there's that -- and there's also been this IMM case with the IMM potentially reviewing transmission plans and what have you. Just could you comment on that, what you think about what's going on there?

Martin J. Lyons

Analyst

Yes. I guess, Paul, I commented on it briefly. I mean you're right and for others on the call 2 days ago, on July 30, the 5 state commissions that Paul referenced alleged that MISO violated its tariff when it developed its benefit to cost ratios for the tranche 2.1 portfolio. And they ask FERC to declassify the tranche 2.1 projects as multi-value projects. Obviously, based on the recency we're still assessing that filing and what our response might be. But look, Paul, we all know that load is growing in the region. We just talked about that. The mix of generation resources has certainly been shifting over time and capacity prices have been rising. And so all of that suggests to us that more transmission investment is needed. I think, look, we look back, MISO went through a very lengthy and consistent process of scenario planning and modeling, which ultimately led to the identification of these projects. And we support the need for the projects and the value of the project. So we're disappointed to see the filing, and we certainly hope that it doesn't delay the needed investments that we believe we need to make. So again, we're in the early stages of assessing it. It was just filed on July 30, and we'll be thoughtful about our response.

Paul Patterson

Analyst

Okay. Good. Great. So the second thing is as I'm sure you guys are aware, the Trump administration doesn't seem to be as excited about renewables as perhaps the previous one, and they put out their executive order -- he put out an executive order regarding treasury guidance and what have you. And I know that you guys don't know what's going -- I mean I assume you guys don't know what's going to be in it. But I guess my question sort of is, to your point, sort of which we're making earlier, obviously, there's a need for new generation. The tax cuts basically accrue to rate payers. If there was any disruption from this guidance, in which the safe harbors or something would be I know this is kind of hypothetical, but I'm just sort of thinking ahead here. If there was a potential issue in which sand was sort of thrown in the gear, so to speak and the tax -- some tax cuts were made in eligible. What would be sort of the process to deal with that? I mean, obviously, again, to what you were sort of saying, there's a need for this -- there's a need for some generation, whatever it may be, and the tax credits are really not something that -- it's really something that accrues to rate payers, right? So I'm just sort of wondering what -- do you have any thoughts about what the process might be or what the flexibility you guys might have in terms of how you would approach a situation like that if it were to develop?

Martin J. Lyons

Analyst

Yes. Paul, maybe Michael and I have kind of tag team this a little bit. I think, first of all, I'm not sure I can comment on what the process might be on that hypothetical. And hopefully, the hypothetical doesn't come to pass. I think we and the industry, obviously, we were very active on the hill as the OBBBA was negotiated and finalized. And one of the things that we really lobbied for was business certainty with respect to near-term planned projects and that if the tax credits were going to be phased out that they were done in -- that was done in a sort of a sensible way that gave us the ability to move forward with planned projects and with some certainty. And I think at the end of the day, historical treasury guidance with respect to when does construction begin along with continuity, safe harbor, some of these provisions go back more than a decade. And it's our belief that legislative intent was to rely on that decade's worth of precedent and codify it actually in the legislation in the OBBA. So we feel good about what's in the law and that it should stick and is, again, consistent with past treasury practice. So we feel good about all of that, and that's what we're going to continue to support. Michael can talk to you a little bit now about what we had in our slides with respect to the actual credits and why we feel good about the credits that we have in our 5-year plan.

Michael L. Moehn

Analyst

Yes, you bet. I'll start where you kind of left off, Paul, which is we need every bit of this though, right? We need the solar, the wind, the battery. We need to continue to get every single megawatt we can out of our fossil generation, our nuclear plants as well. And again, all of these tax credits do go back to customers. That's why we advocate so hard for it. And I think we actually landed in a good spot. And Marty is right. I mean, look, we have a time-tested approach here. I mean we've had IRS guidance here for the better part of a decade under the start of construction. We've done a lot of safe harboring. Typically for us is under the physical work test. And so -- as I indicated in the talking points, I mean this $1.5 billion over the next 5 years, it's really broken down to $750 million under projects that are already in service or going to be in service by the end of '27. If you recall, we had 700 megawatts of wind that we put in service a number of years ago, that's throwing off PTCs, other things. We have about 400 megawatts of batteries that we have CCNs on that we're going to be deploying here and safe harboring by the end of '25. And then the remaining piece is associated with the solar build-out. And again, the team has worked really hard to make sure that we put ourselves in a position to have that physical work test. Again, that's been well established under IRS guidance, completely safe harbored over the next, I'd say, 30 to 60 days. So I feel really good about the visibility we have. Difficult to speculate where sort of this executive order is going to go, but we got heads down and focused on getting this generation built.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from Carly Davenport of Goldman Sachs.

Carly S. Davenport

Analyst

Maybe just to follow up on the previous one. As we think like post OBBBA. I know you had mentioned earlier that everything in the current plan is safe harbored. But I guess to the extent that we do get a constructive outcome on these executive orders, is there any potential to pull forward incremental projects or accelerate plans to be able to take advantage of those credits for customers?

Michael L. Moehn

Analyst

Yes. I mean the team has been actively looking at that, Carly, it's Michael. Yes, they've been going through and looking at transformers and acquiring Transformers to put us in a position not only to focus on kind of this 5-year plan, but to see what else that we could potentially pull forward and make sure that we take care of these credits too. And obviously, they're extremely helpful from an affordability perspective.

Carly S. Davenport

Analyst

Great. Thanks Michael. Super helpful. And then maybe just a quick update on the data center growth opportunities. I guess, any just shifts in your conversations with customers or incremental potential customers in terms of what they're looking for, the priorities are all sort of in line with previous discussions?

Martin J. Lyons

Analyst

Yes. I think the priorities remain in line with previous discussions. I think, again, our sites here in Missouri are attractive for a number of reasons. But again, I think key is that we have good sites with good transmission access where we have affordable power, we have available power. I think we have good state support for these economic development opportunities. The state, I think, is very aligned in wanting to bring these development opportunities to fruition. And I think there's a good fit between what the hyperscalers, the data center developers and the state are all looking for with respect to this development.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor back over to Marty Lyons for closing comments.

Martin J. Lyons

Analyst

Terrific. Well, thanks for your interest in Ameren. We really appreciate each of you being on the call today. As you can tell, we remain absolutely focused on strong execution of our plan. We've had a very strong start to the year. I feel really good about what we've accomplished strategically and financially. And we're going to be very focused on executing our plans for the remainder of the year and work diligently to deliver safe, reliable and affordable energy to our customers and communities. So with that, thank you all for joining us today. I hope to see many of you in the coming weeks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines or walk off the webcast at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.