Earnings Labs

American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG)

Q2 2011 Earnings Call· Tue, Aug 2, 2011

$129.45

-1.46%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is (Keena) and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the American Financial Group 2011 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Keith Jensen, Senior Vice President of American Financial Group. Please go ahead sir. Keith Jensen – Senior Vice President: Thank you, Tina. Good morning and welcome to American Financial Group’s 2011 second quarter earnings results conference call. I am joined this morning by Carl Lindner III and Craig Lindner Co-CEOs of American Financial Group. If you are viewing the webcast from our website, you can follow along with the slide presentation, if you would like. Certain statements made during this call are not historical facts and maybe considered forward-looking statements and are based on estimates, assumptions, and projections, which management believes are reasonable, but by their nature, subject to risks and uncertainties. The factors, which could cause actual results and/or financial condition to differ materially from those suggested by such forward-looking statements, include, but are not limited to those discussed or identified from time to time in AFG's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its Annual Report on Form 10-K and quarterly report on Form 10-Q. We do not promise to update such forward-looking statements to reflect actual results or changes in assumptions or other factors that could affect these statements. Core net operating earnings is a non-GAAP financial measure, which set asides significant items that are generally not considered part of ongoing operations, such as net realized gains or losses on investments, the effect of accountings changes, discontinued operations,…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Amit Kumar of Macquarie. Amit Kumar – Macquarie: Good morning. Congrats on the quarter. Just starting with the Asbestos is the charge you talked about an uptick and notices, can you also talk about what timeframe or what time period that these policies or the claims are formed. I guess what accident year is versus uptick?

Keith Jensen

Analyst · Macquarie

Yes, we've got Vito Peraino, who led our group in doing this assessment with us. Vito, do you want to give response?

Vito Peraino

Analyst · Macquarie

Sure. I would say that it’s a wide range of years our reinsurance, assumed reinsurance business and years in the 60s and 70s and then the underlying risks stand the same period. So, it’s hard to really tie two specific accidents here and it really runs a span of years. Amit Kumar – Macquarie: In terms of an uptick is there more to it or are you think it’s an aberration or is it from you see a lot of ads in TVs are these sort of peripheral defendants? What do you think is causing this uptick?

Keith Jensen

Analyst · Macquarie

I think a couple of things. As Carl mentioned we are seeing a different mix of mesothelioma and lung cancer claims versus not impaired claims. I think everyone in the industry is seeing that and as a result, we're seeing more settlements put through the reinsurance payment pipeline. There is a tendency now to be moving down the tiers of defendants to more peripheral defendants and that's tapping into some policies that hadn’t previously been tapped. But again, this is in to a significant departure from what we seen before, but it is a departure we believe it has been addressed by the strengthening of our reserves. Amit Kumar – Macquarie: Okay. That’s helpful and then on the environmental side, can you expand on that a bit more?

Keith Jensen

Analyst · Macquarie

Sure. Again we see no emerging trend on the environmental side, the strengthening here is really being driven by site-specific developments in a handful of sites. So, different estimates of liability exposure in total exposures, but again nothing significant at any given site or any trend we see developing on environmental. Amit Kumar – Macquarie: Got it. Okay that’s helpful. Sort of changing topics here a bit, on the crop book I don’t cash it, there was a mention of $10 million to $15 million lower profitability was that from the crop book or do I ?

Keith Jensen

Analyst · Macquarie

That specifically was an estimate that currently is just an estimate because it hasn’t played out fully of the impact the flooding in the upper Missouri valley from the snow melt that’s causing the significant amounts of flooding in that. What we are trying to is give you an indication as to about how much we estimate that will affect your profitability of that line of business for us. Amit Kumar – Macquarie: Got it. That’s helpful.

Carl Lindner III

Analyst · Macquarie

It is baked into our earnings guidance. Amit Kumar – Macquarie: Got it. Okay, that’s helpful. And so that’s the current scenario, but based on the trends you are seeing, it seems things are much, much better than we were talking about in Q1 conference call and probably building much better than 2008.

Carl Lindner III

Analyst · Macquarie

In terms of amount of corn and soybeans planted and that turned out pretty good and so far 65% of the corn and soybean acres are rated good or excellent. That’s a tad below what it was last year in that. I think main things what really focused on now is there needs to be adequate precipitation, right in the Midwest heartland. And we are also as Keith mentioned trying to asses the Missouri river flooding and how much exposure we have there ultimately. I think those are the issues. To another extend I also mentioned, an early frost. The crops are planted a little later and early frost is always something you watch for, but since the crops are planted a little bit later in an early frost could have a little bit more of an impact. Those are the kinds of things that we are really watching and focused on right now.

Keith Jensen

Analyst · Macquarie

Amit, few other things I would emphasize for everyone is that we are at the second quarter. This is early in the crop business and if you look back over our history we will tend to have a better feel in the third quarter as to things like yield and commodity prices, but it’s really mid to late third quarter and fourth quarter, when we are able to reasonably assess, this probably watch for major things it look like they will not be mitigated. But the real game is played in the third quarter and fourth quarter.

Carl Lindner III

Analyst · Macquarie

I think one other thing I want to mention right now when you are look at the price risk from a price risk standpoint. I think we are in pretty good shape, when you look at the futures prices, compared to the spring discovery prices, there is nothing near that would concern us right at this moment. Amit Kumar – Macquarie: Got it. And just one final question and I will re-queue. Just based on that comment, when do you pick the ranges or I am sorry the states under the SRA, what states will you or what books will you ship into that? What is the time period when you decide?

Carl Lindner III

Analyst · Macquarie

That’s an ongoing process each year. We don’t decide which states we’re going to be in or not. The way the program works, you have to write all comers. And so basically you have to not be providing a distribution to protect yourself on a gross basis from the states. What you can do and where the real underwriting skill comes into play is the buckets of reinsurance that are used under the FCIC and that can be an annual consideration. But by and large, the high risk areas are high risk areas year-in and year-out, so it’s not an individual state choosing at an individual time. Amit Kumar – Macquarie: Got it. Okay, thanks so much. Congrats on the results and I will re-queue. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) And there are no further questions. Amit Kumar has another question. Amit Kumar – Macquarie: Hey, sorry, I was a bit slow in hitting star one. Just two other questions, first of all, you did talk about the reserve development being much lower. Do you get the sense that you are getting to the point, where a lot of those good loss years’ reserves have been released into earnings and probably the impact diminishes going forward?

Carl Lindner III

Analyst · Macquarie

I think there is a constant process that goes on, looking at reserves and reserve adequacy. And as we have gone into a period now where there is not substantial rate movement and hasn’t been for quite a period of time. I am not surprised that it would moderate some, but I don’t think there is a direct one-to-one linkage there and I think we’ll see over time further development.

Keith Jensen

Analyst · Macquarie

I think we still feel good about the condition of our reserves today. Amit Kumar – Macquarie: Okay, that’s helpful. And then the only other question I had is I might have missed this, did you talk about the California comp book, the rate levels and how do you feel about that going forward? There seems to be a lot of sort of different commentary coming out from that marketplace.

Carl Lindner III

Analyst · Macquarie

I can give you my outlook and that’s helpful. Amit Kumar – Macquarie: Yeah, would love to.

Carl Lindner III

Analyst · Macquarie

It’s still a more competitive market than what it should be. You’ve got, I think the industry, the 2010 industry estimate, I think that’s still out there is around 125. Our publics would have – California only would have been about 120. Looking to this year, we were able to take some price increase last year. So, I think our current perspective on 2011 that California only accident year for this year we are estimating around 115. All of republic probably be about 111. And we feel that republic’s reserves continue to be solid. If you ask me, on the price front, we’re getting 8% year-to-date. We probably need 20% versus what we are getting in order to get our combined ratio down to 104 at a minimum and a 12% to 14% return on equity. I think we are seeing some improvement on renewal payrolls, which is good. I think actually excluding the excess workers’ comp business that’s running off, I believe that the underlying premium is maybe up a percent or something, which is so the decline – our business is not declining. Our primary business is not declining. It’s not growing a lot right now due to the competitive market. And I think we’re probably generally been a bit more aggressive on the price increase front than our competitors. So…. Amit Kumar – Macquarie: Got it. Okay, that’s all I have. Thanks for the answers.

Keith Jensen

Analyst · Macquarie

All right. Any other questions?

Operator

Operator

Yes. You have a question from Matt Rohrmann of KBW. Matt Rohrmann – KBW: Good morning guys.

Carl Lindner III

Analyst · KBW

Good morning Matt. Matt Rohrmann – KBW: Just one quick details question, I know we have discussed in the past as you build up your bank distribution on the annuity side, were there any institutions added this quarter?

Carl Lindner III

Analyst · KBW

Yes, there were. We are adding institutions every quarter. We are looking to expand that niche for us and we have been very successful in continuing to add banks. Matt Rohrmann – KBW: Any of size of some of the previous larger institutions or are these like smaller community institutions?

Carl Lindner III

Analyst · KBW

They are not as big as the couple that are generating very large amounts of premium dollars, but they are not small banks. They are midsized banks, typically, that we are close to doing a deal with another – one of the top six, seven banks in terms of size in the nation. Matt Rohrmann – KBW: Okay. All right, great, thank you very much.

Carl Lindner III

Analyst · KBW

Thanks, Matt.

Operator

Operator

And there are no further questions. Carl Lindner III – Co-Chief Executive Officer: All right, then thank you. We appreciate you taking the time with us this morning and we’ll look forward to reporting to you at the conclusion of the third quarter. Have a good day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today’s American Financial Group 2011 second quarter earnings conference call. You may now disconnect.