Earnings Labs

American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG)

Q3 2011 Earnings Call· Wed, Oct 26, 2011

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Tina and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the American Financial Group 2011 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions). Thank you. Mr. Keith Jensen, Senior VP of American Financial Group. You may begin.

Keith Jensen

Management

Thank you. Good morning. This is Keith Jensen and we are pleased to welcome you to American Financial Group’s 2011 third quarter earnings results conference call. I’m joined this morning by Carl Lindner III, and Craig Lindner, Co-CEOs of American Financial Group. If you’re viewing the webcast from our website, you can follow along with the slide presentation if you’d like. Certain statements made during this call are not historical facts and may be considered forward-looking statements and are based on estimates, assumptions, and projections which Management believes are reasonable, but by their nature subject to risks and uncertainties. The factors which could cause actual results and/or financial condition to differ materially from those suggested by such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those discussed or identified from time to time in AFG’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission; including the annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. We do not promise to update such forward-looking statements to reflect actual results or changes in assumptions or other factors that could affect these statements. Core net operating earnings is a non-GAAP financial measure which sets aside significant items that are generally not considered part of ongoing operations such as net realized gains or losses on investments, the effect of accounting changes, discontinued operations, significant asbestos and environmental charges, and certain other non-recurring items. AFG believes that this non-GAAP measure to be useful for analysts and investors in analyzing the ongoing operating results and will be discussed for various periods during this call. A reconciliation of net earnings attributable to shareholders to core net operating earnings is included in our earnings release. Now, I’m pleased to turn the call over to Carl Lindner III, to discuss our results.

Carl Henry Lindner

Management

Good morning, and thank you, for joining us. Craig and I started out by thanking God for the life of AFG’s Founder and Chairman, Carl H. Lindner Jr. And we’d like to thank you all for all your prayers and condolences in connection with the passing of our dad, Carl H Lindner Jr. We’re humbled by the outpouring of love from his many friends from Cincinnati and across the country, not to mention as many tributes and fond memories shared with us over the past week. Until his final days, our dad shared his passion for his business with employees throughout the AFG organization. Carl’s presence in our corporate offices and boardroom will be missed tremendously. His incredible legacy carries on to the many people touch over the years. Yesterday afternoon we released our 2011 third quarter results. Despite a challenging quarter for the industry, Craig and I are very pleased to report solid operating results that are consistent with our expectations. Core net operating earnings for the third quarter were down $0.17 per share from the comparable 2010 period. We are proud of the insurance professionals that remain disciplined in the under writing and product pricing decisions. This mind-set particularly right now is essential given the continued low interest rate environment and national and global economic uncertainty. I am assuming that the participants on today’s call reviewed our earnings release and supplemental materials posted on our web site. I will review a few highlights and focus today’s discussions on key issues. I will also briefly discuss our outlook for the remainder of 2011. But let’s start by looking at our third quarter results summarized on slides 3 and 4 of the webcast. Net earnings per share were $0.94 for the quarter which included realized gains of $0.04 per share.…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Amit Kumar of Macquarie. Amit Kumar – Macquarie: Thanks and good morning. And congrats on the quarter. Just may be going back to the discussion on crop, I think I heard you mention that you expected it to be slightly below expectations. I’m just wondering based on what we know so far, and I guess Q2 and Q3 are the main quarters in terms of losses and earned premiums, can you just sort of expand on that comment and what could be the possible sort of range of expectations at this point for the 2011 crop here?

Keith Jensen

Management

First of all, Amit we have our estimates baked into our guidance to start with.

Carl Henry Lindner

Management

And in addition, I think you mentioned that the majority of the profits are recognized in the second and third quarter. That’s not correct. It’s third and fourth quarter, with fourth quarter traditionally haven’t been heavier because at that point, you finalized your understanding and knowledge your yields and you’d pass the measurement period for pricing which takes place through the month of October. So, I would expect as in most other years that we’ll really have much firmer view in the fourth quarter. At this part we’re really very interested in earnings recognition process.

Keith Jensen

Management

Yes. As I mentioned before, with two thirds of the crops harvested and, you know, almost through the price discovery period in October, you know, we are kind of throwing out our best assessment at this point, which will be firmed up as Keith mentioned. And that’s – we’re going to have a solidly profitable full year. It’s going to be slightly lower than our expectations. That’s kind of baked into our year end estimate of our guidance. Amit Kumar – Macquarie: Okay. That’s helpful. And I had thought that you – you do pick up the buckets and the ranges and the loss picks in the earlier part of the year. That was my thought process that you sort of – there was a deadline where you had to pick out the buckets and hence you had a clearer view of what the range might be?

Carl Henry Lindner

Management

Let me just interrupt you for a second. Actually in the first two quarters of the year for the crop year we don’t recognize any income because at that point planting in many cases hasn’t been completed. So we’re really are not choosing currently year amounts in any way shape or performance how you get into third quarter.

Keith Jensen

Management

Any crop profits that are in the first half relate to a development on the... Amit Kumar – Macquarie: Prior.

Keith Jensen

Management

Favorable development from the prior year. Amit Kumar – Macquarie: Got it. Okay. And sort of moving on, in terms of the premium impact from Vanliner, does that sort of normalize going forward? Obviously you had meaningful growth in the past quarters. Do we see that premiums sort of trend down or, what is the thought process there?

Carl Henry Lindner

Management

Vanliner, if you remember, was an acquisition we made midyear last year. So, for the first 12 months of ownership we had year-to-year comparison. In addition, when we bought Vanliner it had about 160 million in premium, about 60 of which was in traditional trucking business, almost all of that has been run off and non-renewed. And so, the baseline would be in the 90 to 100 range and we hope and expect that we’ll see growth in that. The dramatic growth you’ve seen this year as a result of that extra 100 million of premium over a 12 month period.

Keith Jensen

Management

Let’s look back to a more normal growth track. I think their management team is excited though about the opportunities to leverage moving to storage and captive area and that we enjoy because a lot of that happening but we think there is good possibilities there. Amit Kumar – Macquarie: Got it. That’s very helpful. Just sort of very quick questions, can you comment about your exposure to club deals? One of the companies in your space had meaningful adverse development from professional liability exposure to a private equity hedge fund and investment managers. Can you talk about your exposure to that line and do you have any club deals in your professional liabilities?

Carl Henry Lindner

Management

Talking about exposure to hedge funds? Amit Kumar – Macquarie: Yes. Yes.

Carl Henry Lindner

Management

If we could get back to you on that. That really hasn’t come up as a red flag to us one way or the other. Generally we got and you are probably right some of that business but, there is nothing that has really been a red flag to us at this point. Amit Kumar – Macquarie: Got it. That’s very helpful. Last question, I will re-queue, capital management, we have seen in the past that you raised the dividend, you talked about buyback, you have exceeded capital of 725 million. How do you view like a change in the dividend policy or a special dividend or acquisitions going forward? Where would you be in those options?

Keith Jensen

Management

I think we are going to continue with our stock selling where it is in relation to book value, I think share repurchase will continue to be a focus also, acquisitions. We certainly have taken our dividend up, 12.5% compounded over five years. We will continue to also look at that. As far as special dividend, there aren’t any plans on the table to do that right now, but, I mean, it’s with everything, and we are always continually looking for what the highest and best use of capital are. Amit Kumar – Macquarie: Okay. Thanks. Thanks for your answers.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Matt Rohrmann of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. Matthew Rohrmann – Keefe Bruyette & Woods: Good morning, folks.

Carl Henry Lindner

Management

Good morning.

Keith Jensen

Management

Good morning. Matthew Rohrmann – Keefe Bruyette & Woods: Just two questions, I guess, following up on the capital management question, Carl, obviously trading below book value. Any buy backs immediately accretive is trading at book value, is that sort of a hard inflexion point terms of how aggressive you’d be with the buy back on a quarter-to-quarter basis?

Carl Henry Lindner

Management

I think, I think as long as our stocks trading at a pretty good discount the book value, it’s very attractive. That said, you know, acquisition opportunities that were accretive and add to the franchise value of the company could also be just as important in that. So... Matthew Rohrmann – Keefe Bruyette & Woods: Okay. Great. And then just going to the ANS business for a second, obviously growth has been strong all year, slowed as crediting rates have come down a little bit. You guys have done a great job working with your – setting up your bank partnerships to drive that growth. As growth starts to slow from such a strong pace, would you tend to be more open now to looking at increasing the number of partnerships going forward to support that growth?

Carl Henry Lindner

Management

This is Craig, we are always looking for opportunities to add high quality distribution partners. So the answer to that is yes. Matthew Rohrmann – Keefe Bruyette & Woods: Okay. Great. Thanks very much, guys.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from Jay Cohen of Bank of America.

Carl Henry Lindner

Management

Good morning, Jay. Jay Cohen – Bank of America: Good morning. Actually good afternoon, thank you. I guess a couple of questions. First is just to get a sense of the new money yields relative to the portfolio yields, where are you putting new money these days and what kind of yields are you seeing.

Carl Henry Lindner

Management

Jay, this is Craig. We are putting new money in a variety of things. It’s principally high grade corporate bonds. But we have gotten more active, our real estate group has gotten more active in originating some direct – directly originated commercial loans. And we found some interesting opportunities in the last six, nine months and have been able to put some money in pretty attractive yields I think on the real estate loans that we have made. I’m going to just guess that we have an average yield of 6.5%. Jay Cohen – Bank of America: On the real estate.

Carl Henry Lindner

Management

On real estate. The biggest part of new money that was going into high grade, principally corporate bonds and they were getting probably on average, I’m going to guess, 125 on treasuries or some number like that. We were very underweight on the light side and commercial mortgage loan exposure. So we have taken up our exposure in commercial mortgage backed securities and the specifically the senior most tranches with lots of support against the cost of equity and we kind of picked our time when the market was in disarray and got some pretty attractive yields on those investments. I’m just going to take a guess of 2 and a quarter, two fifty off treasuries, something in that neighborhood. Jay Cohen – Bank of America: And in the property and casualty side, probably the biggest change over the last year, year and a half has been going from underweight annuities to high quality annuities to more of a market weight. We feel like we really purchased them at the right time.

Keith Jensen

Management

Great. Second question, you referenced your willingness to look at M&A opportunities. And historically you have been pretty opportunistic and pretty good at finding those opportunities. My question is, are you seeing more deals became available in the market because of some of the stress in the system?

Carl Henry Lindner

Management

I don’t think we are seeing more deals at this point. We always see a steady stream. We always have a steady stream of things what we’re looking at. I don’t think – Keith what’s yours?

Keith Jensen

Management

There is not an increase. As Carl said, there is a steady stream. If you look over the last two years you’ll see things line Vanliner, Powers and Lions deal, where they were large enough to hit the radar screen externally but we also find it’s very advantageous deals that are – that pretty a few million dollar range to add on to books of business quite profitably. Jay Cohen – Bank of America: Got it. That’s helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And there are no further questions at this time.

Keith Jensen

Management

All right. Well, thank you all for joining us. We appreciate you taking your time this morning. And we look forward to reporting on the full year results in January.

Operator

Operator

This concludes American Financial Group 2011 third quarter earnings conference call. You may now disconnect.