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Aon plc (AON)

Q1 2015 Earnings Call· Fri, May 1, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and thank you for holding. Welcome to Aon Plc's First Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all parties will be in a listen-only mode until the question-and-answer portion of today's call. If anyone has an objection, you may disconnect at this time. I would also like to remind all parties that this call is being recorded, that it is important to note that some of the comments in today's call may constitute certain statements that are forward-looking in nature as defined by the Private Securities Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical results or those anticipated. Information concerning risk factors that could cause such differences are described in the press release covering our first quarter 2015 results, as well as having been posted to our website. Now, it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Greg Case, President and CEO of Aon Plc. Gregory C. Case - President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our first quarter 2015 conference call. Joining me here today is our CFO, Christa Davies. I would note that there are slides available on our website for you to follow along with our commentary today, and consistent with previous quarters, I'd like to cover three areas before turning the call over to Christa for further financial review. First is our performance against key metrics we communicate to shareholders; second is overall organic growth performance; and third, continued areas of strategic investment across Aon. On the first topic, our performance versus key metrics. Each quarter, we measure our performance against the key metrics we focus on achieving over the course of the year: grow organically, expand margin, increase earnings…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, ma'am. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Our first question is from Mr. Adam Klauber. Sir, your line is open. Adam Klauber - William Blair & Co. LLC: Good morning, everyone. Gregory C. Case - President & Chief Executive Officer: Hi, Adam. Adam Klauber - William Blair & Co. LLC: My first question is about the HR Cloud business. We understand you've had some good-size wins in that business. One, is that true without mentioning the names? And two, how does the pipeline look currently for more good-size clients? Gregory C. Case - President & Chief Executive Officer: Adam, it actually looks exceptionally positive. We are very pleased with the investment in Europe, as I described, but that really is continuing to complement an already strong foundation we have in capability in workday implementation. And it's gone exceptionally well. And to describe sort of the opportunities here for clients, it's greater flexibility, great platform, modifications over time, evolution, innovation, brings a lot of things to the table on behalf of clients that are quite beneficial, and we're very excited about it. So very positive trajectory. Adam Klauber - William Blair & Co. LLC: And I think you mentioned that that did help organic this quarter. Is the nature of that business lumpier once you win these clients, should it be more of a continual ramp up? Gregory C. Case - President & Chief Executive Officer: It really is a more continual ramp up as you bring them online and service them over time. And it had an impact on the quarter as – and will have on the year as we continue to succeed in the business. Adam Klauber - William Blair & Co. LLC: Okay. Thanks. And then on the retiree exchange business, I understand there is more activity in the public or municipal side of the market. One, is that true? And is that more off-season than the traditional exchange business? Gregory C. Case - President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, the public side has evolved as you watched in the press over time. As we've focused on the private side of the business, it's gone exceptionally well. It really does complement a broad-based set of health solutions that we have and we've had some and continue to have significant wins, both on the active and the retiree side. And we saw a little bit of off cycle in the Q1, this report, but that's going to, as I said, going to even out and really show up in the fourth quarter over time and will really normalize at that point. Adam Klauber - William Blair & Co. LLC: Okay. Thanks a lot. Gregory C. Case - President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. Our next question comes from Mr. Dave Styblo of Jefferies. Sir, your line is open.

David A. Styblo - Jefferies LLC

Management

Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Just wanted to follow up on that when you had just mentioned the significant wins, I want to be clear, is that something that you're talking about a rolling on to the 2015 plan year? Or you're in active negotiations and finalizing those deals such that it would impact 2016? And just broader, could you talk to sort of what – how 2016 is shaping up? Are you at this point starting to see an inflection or pick up in actual enrollment? Gregory C. Case - President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. Just to sort of parse the questions. The first question was around literally the workday implementation in Cloud and the implications and how it's going to evolve over time, as that was coming online. The second – which will show up in the year – and the second was, what showed up in the first quarter, which was on the retiree exchange, some really follow-on applications that happened in the first quarter from our fourth quarter work last year. And that's going to continue to ramp up over time. And what you've seen on the exchange business for us is as part of our overall health solutions capability, that's just continuing to build and will continue to do so. It still will continue to be fourth quarter dominated as it comes online, and we'll just continue to see very, very good progress in that.

David A. Styblo - Jefferies LLC

Management

Okay. And as far as the inflection for 2016, is that something you're starting to see at this point? Or how – obviously conversations continue to be active and robust, and that tone seems to be similar, but just curious of the enrollment outlook for 2016? Gregory C. Case - President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. The pipeline continues to be very strong. A lot of great conversations across the board on both the active exchange and retiree exchange. And as I described in my comments, the impact here has been substantial. In particular, the impact on, for us, the employee satisfaction levels have been exceptionally high, the opportunity to actually bend the cost curve, very, very positive from that standpoint. And we just have been very, very fortunate in terms of sort of our client wins and how that's evolved over time, and we'll report out in the third quarter as we complete the season. But we continue to make progress.

David A. Styblo - Jefferies LLC

Management

Okay. And then just flipping gears over to the international side of organic growth of 3%. That seemed to hold up better than I thought it would in this environment. Just want to ensure that there isn't any unusual benefits in the quarter from timing. And assuming not, can you just drill into and provide a little bit more color about what you're seeing in the market, what you're doing to help maintain that decent organic growth that's going on right now? Gregory C. Case - President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, we really saw across the board really, not just in Europe but also across the Americas if you think about sort of as I described before, retention levels in U.S. Retail were exceptionally high, 93% almost near record levels. And then Europe also reflects very, very high retention levels. And then efforts we've done around Client Promise, the implementation of how we actually support and serve clients, introduce new ideas to clients as their needs change over time. And this has all been against a backdrop of the challenging pricing environment and an overall economic environment that's challenged. But from our standpoint, we view the opportunities in Europe and in the Americas as quite strong, quite positive and our capability to serve them is quite high. And that's really what's driven new business growth, what's driven retention and what's driven the results. And our view is we're going to continue to grow and build the business as we have for the last decade every year, irrespective of the headwinds and that includes all the aforementioned, FX, our interest rates or economic conditions or pricing.

David A. Styblo - Jefferies LLC

Management

Super. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. Our next question is coming from Mr. Brian Meredith of UBS. Sir, your line is open.

Brian R. Meredith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Yeah. Thanks. Good morning. Greg, I wonder if you could talk a little bit about, or update us on progress on improving yield in the Risk Solutions business, monetizing that GRIP asset, that kind of stuff? Gregory C. Case - President & Chief Executive Officer: So, Brian, we would say we continue to make very good progress and reflected in the performance as we grow and improve margin over time and what we've done on the data and analytics efforts here really is helping markets, really our market partners understand and improve their return on invested capital and that's really fundamentally what GRIP is able to help us do. And we've got 35 plus carriers who have actually signed on to this and fundamentally it helps them succeed in the business and we're essentially helping them match their capital with our demand in a more efficient and effective way and that's what the data and analytics has helped us do. So it's progress. We're strengthening the relationships as they evolve in that area and watch and see data and analytics will continue to be a stronger and stronger part of our value proposition. It's complemented by the Singapore Innovation Center and the Dublin Innovation Centers which we've brought online. And you see it show up in the marketplace in areas like the Risk Insight platform, like Review, which we've done on the reinsurance side very, very strong, very, very positive and this is an area of substantial investment for Aon. And in many respects we believe we've got an unprecedented level of data but we need to translate that into true insight and action for our clients, and if our clients can take that data and insight and improve operating performance, strengthen their balance sheet or reduce volatility, we provided something to the market no one else can do and we believe that's distinctive. That is sustainable and that's going to create value for them and for us.

Brian R. Meredith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Just on the yield also, I mean, given that we're in a competitive and softening market, have you been able to boost commission rates or do other things to perhaps offset some of the price declines? Gregory C. Case - President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. We've done a number of different things to again come back to add value for clients and help them understand it and get paid for that and do the same on the market side. So in the overall environment, this all translates and shows up in the Risk Solutions margin which we would say we're going to continue to improve in 2015 just as we did in 2014 and 2013 as we march toward our 26%. So you'll see us actually drive – taking – pulling a number of different levers to do that, this being one of them.

Brian R. Meredith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Got you. And then just quickly on HR Solutions, Christa, the margins actually ex FX actually improved on a year-over-year basis. I would have thought per your guidance they would have actually declined. Was there something unusual that happened in the quarter? Christa Davies - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. You're right. It did improve 10 basis points on an underlying basis. We did see some timing between Q1 and Q2, Brian, and what we would say is that the first half is going to be down exactly in line with guidance and the second half up in operating income to grow overall operating income and margin for the full year.

Brian R. Meredith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Got you. So a little bit tougher in the second quarter? Great. Christa Davies - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: That's right.

Brian R. Meredith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. Our next question is coming from Mr. Dan Farrell of Piper Jaffray. Sir, your line is open.

Daniel Farrell - Piper Jaffray

Management

Thanks and good morning. Just back on the Risk Solutions margins, Greg, when you – in your prepared comments you talked about ongoing investment in that business to drive organic and then drive improved operating leverage. Do you think investments in that business right now are running higher than you ultimately think they will be? And then, is there anything else to be thinking about from a mix perspective in Risk Solutions that might be impacting margins say, whether it be Reinsurance, macro pressures there or something like that? Thank you. Gregory C. Case - President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, we would – look back, we are going to continue to make investments to sort of build and strengthen the business. As we said before, we want to do this while at the same time making meaningful progress and improving risk brokerage margin, marching toward the 26%. And so we're going just to keep doing that. And the investments actually happened across the business. They've happened on the Retail side of the business as we've invested in data and analytics as I described before, the Singapore Innovation Center, our Dublin Innovation Center, these are very, very substantial investments for us, which drive the Risk Insight Platform on the Retail side. We've invested in new product ideas in Structured Portfolio Solutions, a whole series of things we've done fundamentally to strengthen the value proposition that we provide to clients. If they understand it and it provides value in their business, we're going to – it's going to help improve Aon's performance. We've made equal and substantial investments across the Reinsurance side of the portfolio as well, and we continue to do that. And while certainly well publicized, Reinsurance is under some pressure given capital coming into the marketplace and pricing dynamics, particularly in the cat business, we love the business. We love what we're doing on the Reinsurance side. Our capability to help insurers improve their return on invested capital and their performance we believe is high and even unprecedented from an Aon Benfield standpoint. We're number one in treaty, we're number one in fac, we're number one in capital markets and the things we do around – with new capital coming in the industry. And so you're going to see us continue to invest. There is not a – it's not a high or a low, it's a steady set of investments we make over time that we believe will help us build the business, and we're going to continue to do that. While at the same time, we are very clear, we need to overcome headwinds that are out there, as we've done over time. This year, we're talking about FX. In previous years, it might have been interest rates or might have been the economy or it might have been pricing. We're going to overcome those, grow margin and invest in the business for the long term.

Daniel Farrell - Piper Jaffray

Management

Got it. Thanks. That's very helpful. And just to follow up, some of your competitors have talked about needing to achieve a certain level of organic growth, say in the 2% to 3% range, before operating leverage can start to fully materialize. Is that something conceptually that you guys sort of agree with when you think about margin expansion? Christa Davies - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: I guess what we would say is, because of the investments we've made in data analytics, as Greg described, there's less of an organic revenue growth number we need to expand margins. I would note that in calendar year 2009, in the depth of the economic recession, organic revenue growth for us was minus 1% and we expanded margins. Having said that, if you look at our expense base, the primary expense we have in the business is people, and there is an inherent inflationary push, let's call it 2%, on that expense base, and so that is absolutely a challenge we acknowledge. But we also see that the return on the significant investments we've made in data and analytics, allows us to expand margin in lower-growth environments. Gregory C. Case - President & Chief Executive Officer: This fundamentally, Dan, comes back to Brian's question around margin and this idea of operational leverage. It's very important as you think about our performance versus the rest of the world right now. These investments we're making, fundamentally, give us the ability to both strengthen our franchise, which is really what we have to do, but also with the operating leverage accompanying the investments around data and analytics in particular, we can improve margin at lower levels of organic growth. By the way, it's not to mean we're focused on lower levels. We have high aspirations on growing the business. But the operational leverage in the business continues to grow.

Daniel Farrell - Piper Jaffray

Management

Great. That's helpful. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. Our next question is coming from Miss Elyse Greenspan of Wells Fargo. Ma'am, your line is open.

Elyse B. Greenspan - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Management

Hi. Good morning. Just a few questions. The first, in terms of foreign exchange, I know the hit was obviously a bit larger than expected in the first quarter, and you guys had previously guided to about $0.11 for the full year. What do you think the full year level will come in at given how you set expectations for the balance of the year? Christa Davies - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. So FX is coming in a little bit higher in terms of the impact than we previously guided because since we guided last time, the euro, in particular, has declined versus the U.S. dollar. What we did say, Elyse, is that we'll have a modest unfavorable impact in each quarter in the balance of the year, most significantly in Q2 and Q3.

Elyse B. Greenspan - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Management

Okay. And then in terms of looking at the share repurchase, I know Q1 is a high cash usage quarter. If we're thinking about how you might – the share repurchase level in the next few quarters, how do you kind of think about in terms of a go-forward level on your capital management outlook for the year? Christa Davies - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. So we're not giving specific guidance, Elyse, but what we would say is as you think about our free cash flow sort of growth, it's going to be substantial in the rest of the year. And obviously it's been significant in Q1 already and we expect to grow free cash flow for the year. And as EBITDA continues to grow we're very focused on our investment grade rating but we would continue to increase debt in line with EBITDA growth. And so if you think about sort of the overall cash we then have to deploy, we use a return on capital basis to deploy across all forms of capital usage and share repurchase is definitely the highest return on capital we observe at this time. And so we'll continue to deploy capital based on that.

Elyse B. Greenspan - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Management

On the retiree exchange, the off-cycle enrollment, just so I understand correctly, was that included in the enrollment figures in terms of the number of companies and the number of lives you guys had provided in September of last year for the 2015 year? Gregory C. Case - President & Chief Executive Officer: It was. There's really, in many respects there's really no real new news here from the standpoint, this is just the current existing set of clients we brought online and we just had a few of the enrollments move over to the first quarter. It's going to – relatively small and this will balance itself out by Q4 and as we go forward. And it really is a little bit of off-cycle with that as well.

Elyse B. Greenspan - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Management

Okay. And then one last question, you mention a decline in capital markets business within your Reinsurance segment in the quarter, just was the last Q1 a higher volume quarter so it was a tough comp? I'm just kind of curious especially we've heard a lot going on in the capital markets space why you might have seen a slowdown in the first quarter of this year, so any more information there would be helpful. Thank you. Gregory C. Case - President & Chief Executive Officer: Well top line it really was. We had a strong comparable quarter so that's a little bit of what was going on from that standpoint, a little bit of timing. But when you think about the capital coming in, we don't want to minimize that. There's still tremendous capital coming in, $60 billion plus sort of come into the market right now. We anticipate more over time. We, again, see lots of opportunity with that. I would just highlight in a little bit of the dynamics that as the treaty pricing comes down it looks more, it looks like more attractive relative to capital markets. So there's a little bit less of a – a little bit more of a balance than there was before. I wouldn't overplay it but we saw a little bit of that show up in the quarter.

Elyse B. Greenspan - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Management

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, ma'am. Our next question is coming from Mr. Michael Nannizzi of Goldman Sachs. Sir, your line is open. Michael Nannizzi - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Thank you. Would it be possible to sort of quantify the aggregate FX impact for the rest of the year just so we can have an idea of what that might look like? I mean relative to the first quarter if we're saying it was $50 million or whatever it was in the first quarter, like how should we be thinking about that number, just the notional number for the rest of the year? Thanks. Christa Davies - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: So, Michael, what we can say is that the FX impact by quarter for the rest of the year will be substantially less than what we observed in Q1. It's going to be a modest unfavorable impact in Q2, Q3 and Q4, primarily in Q2 and Q3. Michael Nannizzi - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Okay. But in the aggregate, just notionally, is it much smaller across the three quarters than the first quarter or...? Christa Davies - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes. Michael Nannizzi - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Okay. Great. And then one question on the tax rate, should we assume that the tax rate at the current level, is that something that you guys feel is sustainable longer term? That we should assume that, that is sort of the run rate? What are the factors that could impact that, either reverting or going lower? Christa Davies - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Michael, as we've said previously, 19% is the right operational rate for the company going forward. We do believe it's sustainable, and that's the operational rate we're using for…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. Our next question is coming from Mr. Kai Pan with Morgan Stanley. Sir, your line is open. Kai Pan - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Thank you. And the first question is just could you give a little bit color on the other income line? It looks like it's pretty lumpy from quarter to quarter. How should we think about that going forward? Christa Davies - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. So what we would say is it is obviously very lumpy and we in our sort of budgeting process model it at zero because we're essentially – it should be zero unless we monetize unproductive capital or sell a business which we deem as lower return or less of a strategic fit to Aon which is what you saw in the quarter. And so I would say the $19 million of gains I would say is lumpy and almost impossible to model so we do model that internally at zero. The $23 million of FX impact on our assets and liabilities and foreign currency and the hedging gain, I would say I net that myself against the $53 million of FX impact on operating income we had, say we had a net impact of minus $30 million on our business in terms of operating income from FX. So I guess I view it as two different ways if that makes sense to you. Kai Pan - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Okay. That's good. And then looking underlying, basically you're taking off $0.15 of foreign exchange impact and then probably the $0.12 gain on the other income line. So you look at underlying probably run at $1.40 EPS. That compares $1.28 last year. So year-over-year growth is about 9%. It sounds like a…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. Our last question is coming from Mr. Josh Shanker with Deutsche Bank. Sir, your line is open.

Josh D. Shanker - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Well, thank you for getting me on the phone. I appreciate it. I know that you're interested in growing free cash flow in addition to operating cash flow by lowering your working capital. I was wondering if you could put some numbers around the scale of what you can do? And also last year the spread between receivables and payables went unfavorable for you. I assume you were working on it. What are the pitfalls and obstacles to making that happen? Christa Davies - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. So as we think about free cash flow growth for calendar year 2015, we think there are four major contributors to it. The first is improvement in operating income and that's obviously driven by revenue growth and margin expansion. The second is decreased contributions to pension and restructuring. The third is improvements in working capital. And the fourth is declining taxes. And so as we think about those for the full year, Josh, we look then again to sort of the growth in free cash flow for the quarter of – free cash flow grew $140 million. And the two biggest contributors to that free cash flow growth for the quarter were pension and restructuring contributions declining by $89 million and working capital improvements of $63 million. And then to answer your specific question about working capital in 2014, I would note that we had substantial improvement in working capital in 2013 and that really created a headwind for 2014. And as you said it's a continued progress and we expect to have substantial cash flow growth from all four metrics as we drive towards the $2.3 billion in free cash flow for 2017. Gregory C. Case - President & Chief Executive Officer: But you really are highlighting an area that as you think about the new news over the last 12 months to 18 months it really is the projections and the perspectives around how we're going to be able to build free cash flow in addition to what we do from an operating standpoint. And the move to $2.3 billion by 2017, as Christa highlights, is a substantial, substantial improvement. Another doubling since 2012, which we believe really underscores the power of the franchise.

Josh D. Shanker - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Certainly. Certainly. And just to understand, the $63 million of improvement, that's going to jump around quarter-to-quarter, it may be positive, it may be negative. But is the $63 million, is that a really good quarter for improvement to think about? Or is that what you think you can deliver for the foreseeable future all things being equal? How should we think about the scope? Christa Davies - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. So, we obviously think it was a strong performance in terms of working capital. As we look at that $63 million we're looking at three lines on the balance sheet, our cash flow, receivables, payables, and other assets and liabilities. But we really think about cash flow growth for the full-year and so we're looking at substantial free cash flow growth for the full-year 2015.

Josh D. Shanker - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Yeah. Yeah. But there's no guidance though, around how we should think about just the payables, receivables part? Christa Davies - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Look, we will continue to expect that we will improve cash flow from receivables and payables. We haven't given specific guidance.

Josh D. Shanker - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Okay. Thank you very much. Good luck. Christa Davies - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to Greg Case for closing remarks. Gregory C. Case - President & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks very much for joining us. We look forward to our next call. Thanks very much.