Earnings Labs

Aon plc (AON)

Q2 2015 Earnings Call· Fri, Jul 31, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and thank you for holding. Welcome to Aon Plc's Second Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all parties will be in a listen-only mode until the question-and-answer portion of today's call. If anyone has an objection, you may disconnect your line at this time. I would also like to remind all parties that this call is being recorded and that it is important to note that some of the comments in today's call may constitute certain statements that are forward-looking in nature as defined by the Private Securities Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical results or those anticipated. Information concerning risk factors that could cause such differences are described in the press release covering our second quarter 2015 press release, as well as having been posted on our website. Now, it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Greg Case, President and CEO of Aon Plc. Gregory C. Case - President, CEO & Executive Director: Thanks very much and good morning, everyone. And welcome to our second quarter 2015 conference call. Joining me here today is our CFO, Christa Davies. And I would note that there are slides available on our website for you to follow along with our commentary today. Consistent with previous quarters, I'd like to cover two areas before turning the call over to Christa for further financial review. First, is our performance against key metrics we communicate to shareholders, and second is overall organic growth performance including continued areas of strategic investment across Aon. On the first topic, our performance versus key metrics. Each quarter, we measure our performance against the key metrics we focus on achieving over the course of the year:…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. One moment please for our first question. Our first question came from the line of Adam Klauber of William Blair. Your line is now open. Adam Klauber - William Blair & Co. LLC: Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Gregory C. Case - President, CEO & Executive Director: Hi, Adam. Adam Klauber - William Blair & Co. LLC: On HR Solutions, Christa, you mentioned that you expect solid margin expansion and growth in income. Can we expect just – not exactly – but the range of incremental change we saw in 2014 to be roughly around the same in 2015 for both the margin and income? Christa Davies - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: We haven't given specific guidance on operating income growth for 2015. What we can say, Adam, is we believe we will deliver mid-single digit revenue growth, operating income growth and margin expansion for the full year, and you've seen us do that in both 2013 and 2014 in HR Solutions and we're well on track to deliver that for 2015. Adam Klauber - William Blair & Co. LLC: Okay. Okay. And then as far as health exchanges, selling season isn't done yet, but can you comment on, I guess, activity in selling season in 2015 versus 2014? Is activity around the same, better or worse, just as far as the flow of opportunities? And also, how big of a deal is the Cadillac tax in conversations this year? Gregory C. Case - President, CEO & Executive Director: Well, Adam, let's start really with the overall topic here, is really around health solutions when you think about what's out there, and we continue to see strong interest across-the-board, whether they're exchange solutions or bundled solutions for that matter.…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question came from the line of Dave Styblo of Jefferies. Your line is now open.

David Anthony Styblo - Jefferies LLC

Management

Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Gregory C. Case - President, CEO & Executive Director: Sure.

David Anthony Styblo - Jefferies LLC

Management

I want to start out just, again, kind of focusing a little bit more on the second half. I know we just talked about HR Solutions and organic growth mid-single digits that implies an acceleration. Can you just parse back some of the driver there? Is that some exchange-related activity or other things that you're seeing in the pipeline since the comps are pretty tough year-over-year on that. And then, also, on the other side of the business in Risk Solutions, can you maybe just give us a little bit more of a range of how you're thinking about the organic growth and especially how Reinsurance fits into that? I think I heard you say that you expect growth to improve, but I wasn't really clear if that was more imminent or something a little bit longer term. Christa Davies - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Sure. So Dave, I'll start on HR Solutions. Our HR Solutions business, the seasonality of that business is always second half weighted and will remain that way for the foreseeable future for us, in both the consulting and the outsourcing businesses. So, in the consulting business, you did see a change in patterning last year, particularly around compensation consulting. And so, you'll see that happen predominantly in the second half of the year. And then obviously, on the outsourcing side, our healthcare exchange business is a much more Q4-weighted activity. And so the patterning you saw in 2014 and 2013 will repeat in 2015, meaning the revenue growth is much more second half weighted. So, that definitely is why we feel very good about the growth in the second half of the year, and we can see that in our pipeline today. On the Risk side, I would say similarly, we feel…

David Anthony Styblo - Jefferies LLC

Management

Excellent. That's helpful. And then maybe just piggybacking off the Risk conversation there, maybe it's attributable to the higher retention as well of some of the programs that have been going on and investing in, but the margins were up very nice year-over-year, I think, 150 basis points to 90, excluding FX. Can you spike out anything unusual one-timers either last year to remind us or this year besides the core improvement that you're doing? And on the core side, is that more of a function of the Aon Broking initiative or the revenue engine to get a higher share of wallet? Or are there other contributors that are helping just strictly on the operating expense side? Gregory C. Case - President, CEO & Executive Director: Yeah. The key message, I think, you started with is foremost here, which is we will continue to invest in the business, improve operating leverage, and increase margins as a result of that. And we're able to do that if – at each incremental level of growth – and you're seeing us actually play that out. We'd highlight, by the way, this is about a year for us. It's not about a single quarter. On a single quarter, 150 basis points is correct, but by the way, we'd back out all the FX pieces against it and say it's closer to 90 basis points for the quarter, but really 50 basis points for the first half. So, our view is we're making good, solid progress on margin improvement. We are going to continue to do that through the course of 2015. And what this quarter did was, it didn't change our expectation, just reinforced our ability to do that on our march toward 26%.

David Anthony Styblo - Jefferies LLC

Management

Okay. And then lastly, just on the free cash flow. You're obviously reaffirming that for 2017, and that's in light of the FX headwinds and the challenging macro backdrop when you initially set the guidance. I'm wondering relative to your initial expectations, have you had material upside to what you were originally thinking? And I'm also wondering how bad conditions might need to get for you to fall short of that free cash flow goal. In other words, maybe you can give us a little more color about the assumptions for organic growth, FX and margin expansion within that, for 2017. Christa Davies - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. Certainly. And so we feel really confident about our ability to deliver on the $2.3 billion-plus of free cash flow in calendar year 2017. And there are really four big drivers of that: continued organic growth and margin expansion of the business; declining cash contributions to pension; restructuring and tax; and then improvements in working capital. And we feel really good about the improvements we're making in the first half of 2015 with 2% growth in free cash flow. And we're on track to do double-digit free cash flow growth in 2015 including the litigation settlements, and we'll have extremely strong cash flow growth in 2016 and 2017. So we feel really good about the path there. Gregory C. Case - President, CEO & Executive Director: And in respect – if you think about the quarter – the new news for the quarter is this continued positive sort of progress on the cash-generating capability, as Christa's describing. So, overall, top-line revenue, exactly where we thought it would be, same with margin but the cash flow generating engine against all the headwinds you've highlighted, candidly, continues to strengthen, and we see that continuing through 2015 and in 2016 and 2017.

David Anthony Styblo - Jefferies LLC

Management

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question came from the line of Sarah Dewitt of JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Sarah E. DeWitt - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Hi. Good morning. Gregory C. Case - President, CEO & Executive Director: Hi, Sarah.

Sarah E. DeWitt - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

On the share buybacks, how should we think about the pace of that for the rest of the year, and should the full year 2015 be lower than the full year 2014 given where we're running year-to-date? Christa Davies - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes. So, full year 2015 share repurchase should be lower than 2014 because if you recall, Sarah, there were two unusual sort of sources of cash, which contributed to higher than normal share repurchase than 2014. The first was we had $300 million of excess cash on the balance sheet at year-end 2013, which we used in share repurchase in the first quarter of 2014. And the second was we increased leverage during the year by $1.1 billion. And so, share repurchase for the full year 2015 will be lower, but as I described earlier, I think our cash flow is seasonally higher in the second half of any calendar year, and therefore we expect stronger share repurchase in the second half of the year.

Sarah E. DeWitt - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Okay, great. And then on the private health exchanges, could you just talk a little bit qualitatively how the selling season is going? It sounds like we're hearing from others that maybe some large employers might be deferring, or you might be seeing more adoption on self-insured exchanges versus fully insured. So if you could talk about any of those trends, that'd be helpful. Gregory C. Case - President, CEO & Executive Director: Yeah, we would say overall, Sarah, as I mentioned before, really for us this is about a comprehensive set of health solutions – and those conversations be they fully insured exchanges, self-insured exchanges, traditional self-insured bundles, the intensity of those discussions has remained very, very strong and continue into 2015 and we anticipate into 2016 and 2017. And the pipeline continues to be also quite strong across the board. But again, we're building a long-term platform here and for us it's not – it's even not as much about the selling season as it was before because we're seeing more clients talk about off-cycle adoption and the different solutions. What the clients are looking for is a way, a solution to try to manage against what is an increasing level of costs and a set of promises they made to employees that they really want to keep, and we're trying to help them do that. So the intensity of those conversations and the opportunity, candidly, for us to help them solve and address those issues continues to be very strong.

Sarah E. DeWitt - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question came from the line Elyse Greenspan of Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.

Elyse B. Greenspan - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Management

Hi. Good morning. My first question, I guess, going back to the HR Solutions segment. Through the first half of the year, the earnings in that segment seems to be trending better than you planned. Was there anything kind of seasonal or one-off in the Q2? And then, does that kind of change your outlook for where you were thinking about that business at the start of the year, maybe expecting stronger growth in the second half? Christa Davies - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. Great question, Elyse. I think we had originally guided to down in operating income in the first half of the year and up in the second half of the year, so strong operating income growth for the full year 2015. And I think the first half of the year was slightly better than our expectations. And I think we are still on track for exactly what we guided for the full year, so I wouldn't change our full-year guidance at all. I think it was just slightly better and I wouldn't point to any significant items. There was a range of smaller things that were slightly better than we expected.

Elyse B. Greenspan - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Management

Okay. And then on the tax rate, the adjusted rate was about 18% in the quarter, and when we think of – actually, it was down from that 19% that you guys had kind of pointed to. In terms of modeling for the tax rate going forward, would you change from the 19% or is there anything that kind of lowered that slightly in the quarter? Christa Davies - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Great question, Elyse. Ongoing operational rate remains at 19%, subject to discrete tax adjustments. We did have some positive discrete tax adjustments in Q2, which made the rate lower than that 19% guidance, but that is exactly where we remain.

Elyse B. Greenspan - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Management

Okay. And then back on Risk Solutions, in terms of you guys kind of pointed to what seems like a little bit of improvement in organic revenue growth in the back half of the year since you did say Reinsurance has most likely declined until we hit 2016, what type of improvement are you expecting in the retail, I guess, from the about 2% growth we've seen in the first half of the year? Gregory C. Case - President, CEO & Executive Director: Yeah. Elyse, we're still similar – this is similar to the HR Solutions story. We're exactly in the same place around – an expectation for the year around low- to mid-single digit organic growth on the Risk side. And again, what we said is what this quarter did was just reinforce our confidence in the ability to achieve that. And then I pointed the longer term trends on the Reinsurance side, where we really see this business returning to growth in 2016. But our 2015 expectations remain exactly the same. Again, with the new news of the quarter being just a reinforcement of the cash generating engine of Aon and how it's evolving.

Elyse B. Greenspan - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Management

Okay. And then lastly, on the private health care exchanges, we've seen an acquisition announced recently between Willis and Towers Watson. Do you expect there to be, I guess, any impact on what you're doing on the private health care exchange front from those two companies getting together? Gregory C. Case - President, CEO & Executive Director: I would say from our stand and point of view, if you think about the overall events, recent events really across the board not just in our space but in the markets as well, again, we see them as reinforcing and in many respects making more relevant the strategy we put in place and we've been pursuing, really, for the last 10 years. If you think about industry consolidation, M&A, the risk markets, the health markets, consolidation and intermediaries, as well as the challenges, frankly, our clients are facing in things like cyber globalization, all these things have puts and takes. No doubt about it. But when you put them together, the overall sum, in our view, they reinforce our strategy to be the preeminent firm focused on risk and people. On the consolidating intermediaries from our standpoint, highlights the recognition by other players in our space, they're seen exactly today what we saw 10 years ago. And we've been investing behind it for the last decade and we believe the trends are real and make great opportunities for all of us. And on the consolidating market side, that's out there both on the health and the risk side, we see this as a great opportunity to bring better and more relevant solutions to our clients. So, in many respects, we see change as opportunity, and we're very well positioned to take advantage of it.

Elyse B. Greenspan - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Management

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question came from the line of Brian Meredith of UBS. Your line is now open.

Brian Robert Meredith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Thanks. A couple of quick questions here for you all. The first one, Christa, the cash impact of the litigation charge in the quarter was the same as the earnings impact? Christa Davies - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Not exactly. There's some timing elements of that. So, I think the cash impact, I'd think about over the course of the full year. You've got, obviously, tax affects the expenses that we've got there.

Brian Robert Meredith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Any guidance just so I know what the impact on free cash flow was in the quarter, just for modeling purposes? Christa Davies - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. I mean, the way I'd think about it is, for the full year, just use the after-tax impact of the costs.

Brian Robert Meredith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

For the full year. Okay. Great. And then the second question, on the exchanges, just what does the consolidation we're seeing in the healthcare insurance industry mean for your exchange? I know – because a big part of it is the competition and them lowering the prices. Gregory C. Case - President, CEO & Executive Director: Well, Brian, from our standpoint, as I said – just alluded to – for us, capability on the market side, the carrier side, creates greater opportunity that we can bring on behalf of our clients. What I'll highlight on the active side, we've got 30 national regional carriers sort of in the mix on the exchange side, and 90-plus carriers in the mix under retiree side. So, for us it's not about that individual level of competition, we're creating that. That's going to be there. It's really more around fundamental capability and what these institutions bring to the table, and we anticipate it's going to be stronger. And to the extent there are three on the health side that's greater than $100-billion-plus – I'm assuming all those go through in the way planned – I'm sure they're going to be competing very, very strongly with greater capability. And we think that's going to bode well for our clients and again, change and movement in the market actually benefits us tremendously if we're capable of bringing good solutions to our clients.

Brian Robert Meredith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Okay. And then Greg the last question, I'm just curious. There's always obviously competition for good talent within the insurance brokerage industry. Are you seeing any pickup of late? I mean, we've seen some fairly significant movements in the reinsurance brokerage area and some other companies talking about trying to invest in the business. Is there any pickup right now do you think in the competition for talent? Gregory C. Case - President, CEO & Executive Director: Brian, I really don't see it. This is – we always want to be the best place possible – where someone can come and develop as a professional, support (36:32) and serve clients. And we've been talking about this for a long, long time. It's been part of our strategy for the last 10 years, and we've seen opportunity over that entire period of time. And sometimes it intensifies, sometimes it wanes a bit, but it's really been a constant. And the M&A activity obviously creates different opportunities, but I wouldn't overplay it. For us we're going to go after the best talent in the world to support our clients and that's not going to change for Aon.

Brian Robert Meredith - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Great. Thanks for the answers.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question came from the line of Meyer Shields of KBW. Your line is now open. Meyer Shields - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.: Pardon me. Thanks. Good morning. Greg, you talked about tuck-in acquisitions being done. Can you give us an update in terms of whether the pricing for the acquisitions that you're looking at, whether that pricing is changing at all? Gregory C. Case - President, CEO & Executive Director: I would say, Meyer, for us, the overall marketplace continues to be very, very competitive. There's a lot of capital out there looking at different opportunities. For us, as Christa well described, we remain constant here, too. Our view is around return on invested capital. We're maniacally focused on bringing capability in Aon in a way that improves and then strengthens our return on invested capital. Christa talked about what we're doing with buyback. That's always a benchmark for us. We've got to be able to beat that from a return on invested capital standpoint and that's how we think about our acquisitions. And we see a very competitive market, but we also see opportunity, lots of different firms want to be part of a firm that can actually, truly change the course of a client's performance and do this on a global basis. And this is, in many respects, again, back to the destination of choice for talent, it's back to Brian's question a little bit. We can be a very attractive place for those types of colleagues and for those types of firms. And we're seeing that as well. Meyer Shields - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.: Okay. Thanks. And then real quickly in the slides, the uses of cash slide no longer refers to 2018. And I was hoping you could take us through why – how that decision was made? Christa Davies - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: I think it's really just focused on 2017 because we've set a very specific goal of $2.3 billion of free cash flow. So, I think it was just more around reinforcing that, Meyer. Meyer Shields - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.: Okay. So, no change to the expectation beyond? Christa Davies - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: No. Gregory C. Case - President, CEO & Executive Director: No. Meyer Shields - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.: Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question came from the line of Kai Pan of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open. Kai Pan - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Good morning. Thank you. So, first question to follow up on the merger acquisition. You have been, say, five years since your large acquisition of Hewitt back in 2010. I just wonder, are you interested or open to any big or transformative transactions that could enhance your franchise? Gregory C. Case - President, CEO & Executive Director: So Kai, for us, again, we – it's been the same strategy and approach – preeminent firm in the world focused on risk and people. And we talked about categories around risk, retirement, health, talent, capital, et cetera. It's been a strategy we've worked on very, very hard. And we continue to add content capability around it both in organic investment, which you see us make quite substantially, exchanges, risk insight platform, review, et cetera. And then, we add content, capability in the form of M&A when they can actually help us strengthen that platform. By the way, back to the question before around, it's got to be – got to meet our return on invested capital requirements. And so, you'll see us kind of in the $200 million to $400 million, $500 million a year, bringing in capability like that around the world, but we really like the platform we've got at this point, and that's what we're focused on. Kai Pan - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Okay. That's great. And then in the past, I remember you talked about your private exchange platform that' basically, you had said, multi-carrier and fully insured. But in the commentary, it looks like you also mentioned about health insurer. Are you sort of like open – basically,…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question came from the line of Michael Nannizzi of Goldman Sachs. You may proceed, sir. Michael Nannizzi - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Thanks. Greg, just one, just clarification. You mentioned in Reinsurance that data and analytics would help reignite growth next year. Can you just talk a little bit about kind of what you mean underneath that and kind of what opportunities you see for you to be able to leverage your analytics in order to kind of reassert growth despite sort of market conditions? Gregory C. Case - President, CEO & Executive Director: Yeah. So, a couple of things going on, Mike, just to be aware of. Again, if you think about where we are in Aon Benfield, first, you understand the position of having – we have a very privileged position that our colleagues have built over time – number one in treaty, substantially number one in facultative, number one in capital markets and what we do there in alternative capital. And against that, obviously, we've addressed some substantial headwinds in the treaty world, where particularly in cat, it's under pressure. And by the way, that's when the price has been under most pressure. It's against that, that, before we get to any analytics that the team with what the capability we've got, has been positive for 17 consecutive quarters on net new business. So the underlying health of this business has actually been strengthening over time. And so, start with that. So, as the price declines begin to decelerate, which they have – still there, still substantial – that actually bodes very well for what the underlying impact is going to be long-term. Equally or more exciting is really what we're doing in terms of sort of finding new markets and new ideas to…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question came from the line of Paul Newsome of Sandler O'Neill. Your line is open. Paul Newsome - Sandler O'Neill & Partners LP: Good morning. I just want a follow-up question on sort of the M&A take that you have. In the reinsurance market, in particular, do you think that there'll be a difference in demand given what's happening from the consolidations Gregory C. Case - President, CEO & Executive Director: Well, the ebb and flow of it, Paul, in the short term, you can understand sort of how people have different views on demand, but those will be phased in over time. Fundamental though is asking the question, what's the return on invested capital of these institutions and can we bring solutions to them to help improve that? And for us, that's always been the thesis, and that's why we love the space so much. Our view is there's many, many companies here, and they have tremendous opportunity to improve return on invested capital. And whether we're bringing them solutions that is basically treaty placement, facultative placement, alternative capital or, frankly, more and more back to the question from earlier, data and analytics that help them understand their business so they can make better decisions to improve operating performance, strengthen their balance sheet or reduce their volatility, all these things for us make this highly attractive and an area of high demand. And all the M&A does is create change as we've described before, which will have, as I before, puts and takes, but net-net, we believe bodes very well for someone with real capability and who's made substantial investment over time to try to come up with solutions, a la on Aon Benfield. Paul Newsome - Sandler O'Neill & Partners LP: Fair enough. And then,…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question came from the line of Jay Cohen of Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Jay Arman Cohen - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Yeah. A question on the International side. Overall, International growth was, I guess, okay but not terribly good. You highlighted a couple of areas where you were growing, but there must be some areas that are holding back that growth. What are those areas that are a bit more challenged now, Greg? Gregory C. Case - President, CEO & Executive Director: Yeah. So, Jay, from our standpoint, as we said before, really if you think about what we've produced and outcomes on the Risk Solutions side overall, have been really in face of some headwinds as we talked about in Aon Benfield and in International. And we've got some great, great spots I've described before really across Asia – I highlighted them on my comments. I won't repeat them now – but really a number of different places. But if you think about Europe, Europe really is – you've got a lot of challenges in specific countries across Europe. And the good news is we've got incredibly strong privileged positions that go back decades – more than, literally hundreds of years, quite literally – and we believe we're very well positioned as that, the economics, the economy changes over time. But in the near term, they represent some challenges and that's really been the headwinds.

Jay Arman Cohen - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Got it. Makes sense. Thanks, Greg. Gregory C. Case - President, CEO & Executive Director: Sure. Christa Davies - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thanks, Jay.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to Greg Case for closing remarks. Gregory C. Case - President, CEO & Executive Director: I just want to say thanks to everyone for joining the call and look forward to our discussion next quarter. Thanks very much.