Earnings Labs

Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL)

Q4 2023 Earnings Call· Thu, Jun 22, 2023

$4.47

-3.35%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+0.00%

1 Week

+2.01%

1 Month

+4.74%

vs S&P

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello, and welcome to today’s Conference Call to discuss Algoma Steel’s Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Financial Results. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I’d like to hand the call over to Mike Moraca, Treasurer and Investor Relations Officer for Algoma. Mr. Moraca, please go ahead.

Mike Moraca

Analyst

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Algoma Steel Group Inc.’s fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2023 earnings conference call. Leading today’s call are Michael Garcia, our Chief Executive Officer; and Rajat Marwah, our Chief Financial Officer. As a reminder, this call is being recorded and will be made available for replay later today in the Investors section of Algoma Steel’s corporate website at www.algoma.com. I would like to remind you that comments made on today’s call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws, which involve assumptions and inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from statements made today. In addition, our financial statements are prepared in accordance with IFRS, which is -- which differs from U.S. GAAP and our discussion today includes references to certain non-IFRS financial measures. Last evening, we posted an earnings presentation to accompany today’s prepared remarks. The slides for today’s call can be found in the Investors section of our corporate website. With that in mind, I would ask everyone on today’s call to read the legal disclaimers on slide two of the accompanying earnings presentation and also refer to the risks and assumptions outlined in Algoma Steel’s fourth quarter fiscal 2023 Management’s Discussion and Analysis. Please note that our financial statements are prepared using the U.S. dollar as our functional currency and the Canadian dollar as our presentation currency. Our fiscal year runs from April 1st to March 31st, and our financial statements have been prepared for the three months and 12 months ended March 31, 2023. Please note, all amounts referred to on today’s call are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted. Following our prepared remarks, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Michael Garcia. Mike?

Michael Garcia

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

Thank you, Mike. Good morning. Welcome and thank you for joining Algoma Steel’s earnings call to discuss our fiscal fourth quarter and full year results. I will start my comments, as we always do, by addressing what truly matters most to us, the safety of our employees. At Algoma, we believe in safety without compromise. As disclosed last week, a subcontracting company performing specialized maintenance work at our site sustained a fatality of one of their employees, who succumbed to his injuries despite the prompt and professional response of Algoma’s Emergency Services team and assistance from the Sault Ste. Marie Fire and Paramedic Service. This tragic loss of life has impacted us all at Algoma and our prayers go out to the family, friends and colleagues of the individual. Now turning to our results and highlights. Our fiscal 2023 was a very busy time at Algoma, one marked by volatile commodity prices, operational improvements to our plate mill and exciting progress on our transformative Electric Arc Furnace or EAF project. We overcame a challenging fiscal second quarter and third quarter, while commissioning Phase 1 of our plate mill modernization project, followed by our plate and strip production returning to normal levels at the start of the new calendar year. Our results for the fiscal fourth quarter and our guidance for fiscal Q1 2024 reflects solid operational momentum, which we expect to continue throughout the fiscal year even as activity ramps at our EAF project, which I will give additional color on in a moment. Relentless execution by the entire Algoma team helped overcome commodity price volatility and operational challenges to drive the strong results we achieved in our fiscal year. Those results included shipments of 2 million tons, revenues of almost $2.8 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $452.3 million and cash…

Rajat Marwah

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

Thanks, Mike. Good morning and thank you all for joining the call. I’ll remind you again that all numbers are expressed in Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted. We had a solid quarter to close out our fiscal year end March 2023. Our fourth quarter results included adjusted EBITDA of $47.9 million, which reflects an adjusted EBITDA margin of 7.1% and cash generated from operating activities of $95.4 million. We finished the quarter with $247 million of unrestricted cash and $279 million of undrawn capacity on our revolving credit facility, representing total liquidity of approximately $526 million. Subsequent to quarter end, we upsized our ABL credit facility by US$50 million and extended the maturity five years, further enhancing our available liquidity. As a reminder, the only remaining long-term debt on our balance sheet is in the form of government loans linked to our capital projects. I will provide additional color on the ABL later in my remarks, but first I’ll dive into the key drivers of our performance. We shipped 572,000 tons in the quarter, up 24.7% sequentially and up 4.5% as compared to the prior year quarter. On our last call, we highlighted how our plate and strip operations were running normally at January 1st, and that continues through today as evidenced not only by our fiscal fourth quarter shipment, but also in our fiscal first quarter 2024 guidance. Net sales realization averaged $1,066 per ton, down 4.5% sequentially and down 33.7% versus the prior year period. The decrease versus the prior year level reflects overall soft market conditions. Plate pricing continued to enjoy a significant premium relative to hot-rolled coil during the quarter, driven by resilient demand, particularly from spending on infrastructure projects and durable goods. As a reminder, we are the only discrete plate mill in Canada. This…

Michael Garcia

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

Thank you, Rajat. Looking at the state of the North American steel market, pricing levels in the fiscal fourth quarter saw a significant increase, followed by greater stability near current attractive levels, which we expect to drive solid cash generation in fiscal 2024. While we saw prices fall off through the first fiscal quarter, it has been encouraging to see announcements of price increases from several North American producers in recent weeks. We run our business with a diverse customer base that provides selling opportunities across Canada and the U.S., traditionally servicing roughly 150 customers in a calendar year and we target a high percentage of contract sales. These volume commitments provide stability to our order book and operations, and the lagging price mechanics helped to smooth some of the volatility experienced when prices shift up or down quickly. Our primary focus is on delivering prudent financial discipline and operational excellence to ensure our ability to execute our EAF project, ushering in the next phase of our company that provides the foundation for long-term value creation for our stakeholders. That endeavor defines the future of Algoma and solidifies our leadership position at the forefront of green steel production in North America. The fiscal fourth quarter was a solid end to a very exciting year at Algoma. As we continue to ramp through the later stages of our EAF project construction, be assured that we will continue our relentless focus on safe, reliable, efficient operations of our existing facilities to enjoy the benefits of strong markets. We will continue to build upon this and position Algoma as a compelling value proposition for all of our stakeholders. Thank you very much for your continued interest in Algoma Steel. We look forward to what the future holds. At this point, we would be happy to take your questions. Operator, please give the instructions for the Q&A session.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Katja Jancic with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Katja Jancic

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. Starting off with the CapEx the -- for the EAF project, I think there’s $590 million left to be spent. How much of that is going to be spent this year, so in fiscal 2024?

Rajat Marwah

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

Yeah. So we will be spending around $300-odd million, $300 million to $350 million during this fiscal, which is fiscal 2024 and the balance will follow.

Katja Jancic

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

And then what is -- can you update us on the remaining CapEx outside of EAF, how much is that for this year?

Rajat Marwah

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

Sure. So the remaining CapEx, normally for us, based on all the maintenance activity that’s happening, we spend around $80 million to $90 million with the inflationary pressure that’s out there for labor, as well as construction, I think, that will be a little over $100 million. So that’s all on the maintenance side. And we are also completing our EAF project -- our plate mill project during this year, by early next year we should be done with our outages. So there will be another $30-odd million spent in that area. So it will be in the range of $110 million to $150 million for the remaining CapEx other than Electric Arc Furnace.

Katja Jancic

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

And just on the plate mill, the $30 million, is that for the Phase 2?

Rajat Marwah

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

Exactly. That’s for the Phase 2.

Katja Jancic

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

And that’s all going to be spent this year, fiscal 2024, right?

Rajat Marwah

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

Yeah. Yeah. That’s all going to be spent this year.

Katja Jancic

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

And then just going to the plate mill modernization. I know you mentioned the Phase 2 hot mill outage will be done in April 2024. Can you update us on when is the second phase going to be fully complete and are you still expecting to increase capacity by 350,000 tons to around 700,000 tons and how should we think about the ramp-up following the completion?

Michael Garcia

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

Sure, Katja. This is Mike Garcia. So as we announced in our remarks, we are commissioning our inline shear, which was part of the plate mill modernization project. We’re going to start cold commissioning that in August, which is actually early in the schedule. So we believe that once that commissioning is in place as soon as October, we will start to see more shipments and capacity through that plate mill. And over the balance of the third fiscal quarter and the fourth fiscal quarter, we would expect to see 15% to 20% more plate mill shipments. But the one caveat on that is some of that incremental plate production will be going into stock as we prepare for our 40-day outage in April of calendar year 2024. So that’s what the profile will look like the balance of this fiscal year. And then once we come out from that plate mill outage next April, we would look to factor in the increased plate mill capacity fully into our annual plan and commercial strategy and try to get as many of that -- as much of that high-margin play into our order book as practical. Does that help?

Katja Jancic

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

Yeah. Just one follow-up, sorry. The 15% to 20% increase, I guess, in the second half of this fiscal year. Is that based on the current level, so quarterly levels or how should we think about that?

Michael Garcia

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

It’s based off of a current quarterly level of 70,000 tons to 75,000 tons of plate per quarter.

Katja Jancic

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

Okay. Perfect. Thank you so much.

Rajat Marwah

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

You’re welcome.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ian Gillies with Stifel. Please proceed with your question.

Ian Gillies

Analyst · Ian Gillies with Stifel. Please proceed with your question

Good morning, everyone.

Rajat Marwah

Analyst · Ian Gillies with Stifel. Please proceed with your question

Good morning.

Michael Garcia

Analyst · Ian Gillies with Stifel. Please proceed with your question

Good morning, Ian.

Ian Gillies

Analyst · Ian Gillies with Stifel. Please proceed with your question

I wanted to go back to some of the financing comments made and ask in a different manner. Can you just confirm that there’s no intention to use external equity to help finance the remainder of the EAF and that you believe it can be funded through credit facilities cash and operating cash flow?

Michael Garcia

Analyst · Ian Gillies with Stifel. Please proceed with your question

That’s correct. Yes. There’s no intention to fund it through issuance of securities or equity.

Rajat Marwah

Analyst · Ian Gillies with Stifel. Please proceed with your question

And just to follow-up on that, Ian. There is -- when you look at the cash profile that we have right now, the liquidity profile, we’ve got $250 million of cash. There is roughly $300 million plus of ABL availability that we have. We will be drawing down our inventories. We did a huge draw in the March quarter, but our March end inventory is still elevated compared to historical numbers and it’s elevated to the extent of $250-odd million, but we know that there is some bit of a disprice, but still the volume part of it around $100 million to $150 million will get released over the next several quarters. So when you take all of that into account, there is enough liquidity available to manage this EAF CapEx and we are not even taking into account the good quarter that’s just getting behind us, which is the first fiscal quarter and how our profile looks for the balance of the year and you know that there’s no debt on the balance sheet in any case. So we are pretty confident about funding the EAF.

Ian Gillies

Analyst · Ian Gillies with Stifel. Please proceed with your question

Okay. That’s helpful. And I led to my next question, with respect to the inventory, the absolute releases are helpful, but given we all tend to run different models and different strip. Could you maybe -- is there any way you could frame that in the way of where the target is for inventory days? I mean, historically, it’s been sub-$80 million or you’re around $100 million last quarter. Do you have any context you can provide on where you’re targeting to get that to by the end of the year?

Rajat Marwah

Analyst · Ian Gillies with Stifel. Please proceed with your question

I think it should come down if -- it should come down below 80s. So by -- let’s say, by end of the fiscal year, you should see a release -- we should see a release of $100 million to $150 million. Now this is from the current levels that you’re seeing, so from March getting down to next March, we should see it in that range and that doesn’t release the entire extra tonnage that we are carrying. And as I mentioned last time that with our -- with the fixed tonnage contracts that we have, it takes a little longer to get those inventories down. So we should get down to below $80 million, but in absolute dollar terms, $100 million to $150 million of inventory reduction over the year and further reduction happening in 2025 as well.

Ian Gillies

Analyst · Ian Gillies with Stifel. Please proceed with your question

Okay. And then the last one for me with respect to shipments. There was some focus on plate in the prior question set. As you get into the back half of this fiscal year, do you think shipments can push into that 600,000-ton to 650,000-ton range or is that a bit aggressive?

Michael Garcia

Analyst · Ian Gillies with Stifel. Please proceed with your question

Ian, I think, that would be a bit aggressive. I think our run rate for the year should be similar to the volumes we demonstrated in the quarter that we’re talking about, as well as the quarter that we’re currently in. I think there’s always some opportunity from upside, but I would say, north of $600 million is probably a bit aggressive.

Ian Gillies

Analyst · Ian Gillies with Stifel. Please proceed with your question

Okay. That’s helpful. I’ll turn the call back over. Thanks very much for the detail.

Rajat Marwah

Analyst · Ian Gillies with Stifel. Please proceed with your question

Thanks, Ian.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of David Ocampo with Cormark Securities. Please proceed with your question.

David Ocampo

Analyst · David Ocampo with Cormark Securities. Please proceed with your question

Thanks for taking my questions. I guess my first one is just on the CapEx creep there. If I look back at the last quarter, you guys had, call it, 70% of the CapEx locked in at fixed rates, so call it, $210 million, but you still had a contingency. So it does look like that lasts a little bit that you guys have to contract out has increased by roughly 100%. I was just hoping you guys could drill into that a little bit was just so we can understand it a little bit better?

Michael Garcia

Analyst · David Ocampo with Cormark Securities. Please proceed with your question

Sure, David. So, as we initiated the project, you can think about it in a series of major construction packages for the project. The initial ones, which are the most significant, which we locked in on fixed price and fixed duration where the Danieli contract, obviously, for the equipment and then the Walters contract for the building construction. At that point, it was too early in the project life to award some of the more -- some of the other significant packages that needed detailed engineering to be completed before those bid packages could go out and get priced by the market. Those -- that detailed engineering was wrapped up around six weeks to seven weeks ago. When those bid packages went into the market is when we saw a pretty different market for construction costs than we were seeing when the early large bid packages were going out in the market in 2021. So those packages involved the construction -- the installation of the equipment, the fume treatment plant, the electrical install, the piping. We started to see an emerging risk in those packages coming back higher than the original budget and as we went through an iteration with the contractors to make sure they fully kind of had all the details they needed. We started thinking of how to take costs out. It was at that point where we started seeing the increase of the total cost beyond the $700 million budget and to the number that we’re -- we disclosed today, which is the result of a lot of work and we’re very confident about. But that’s kind of how the evolution of the cost increase transpired.

David Ocampo

Analyst · David Ocampo with Cormark Securities. Please proceed with your question

And just out of curiosity, is there any contingency built into that $75 million like at the top end? Just kind of wondering if there could be additional cost creep beyond this?

Michael Garcia

Analyst · David Ocampo with Cormark Securities. Please proceed with your question

Well, I think, the contingency is that, we’re giving a range and so that top end of the range would be reflective of creeping into that contingency.

David Ocampo

Analyst · David Ocampo with Cormark Securities. Please proceed with your question

Okay. That makes sense. And then Rajat, just out of curiosity, it does seem like the maintenance CapEx have -- has also creeped up with inflationary pressures. What’s the thought process behind the maintenance CapEx when you are finally EAF, because I think before you’re talking about $20 million lower than the CapEx would be if you’re a blast furnace. So does that put you at $80 million?

Rajat Marwah

Analyst · David Ocampo with Cormark Securities. Please proceed with your question

Yeah. So it will be US$20 million to US$30 million lower. So if we are spending around $110 million on the CapEx, we should be around $80 million, $70 million to $80 million on the CapEx in Canadian dollars after the full year is running and the blast furnace and coke batteries are closed.

David Ocampo

Analyst · David Ocampo with Cormark Securities. Please proceed with your question

Okay. That’s perfect. I’ll hand the line over. Thanks a lot guys.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Ahmad Shaath with Beacon Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Ahmad Shaath

Analyst · Ahmad Shaath with Beacon Securities. Please proceed with your question

Hi, guys. Maybe just one for me on the guidance front. We’re noticing a trend that you keep, I guess, beating the guidance. When you talk about thought process when you provide the guidance and maybe some of the challenges or the moving parts. Just to help us pay more thinking once you release those guidance numbers in our modeling?

Rajat Marwah

Analyst · Ahmad Shaath with Beacon Securities. Please proceed with your question

Sure. So there is -- we are a single site. So there is always that variability on the material moving out of the facility and the big variability we normally see is on movement through waters, the barges that move out and there are a number of barges that go out during the month and we see some variability in those situations. That’s why we provide guidance also towards the end of the quarter or closer to the end of the quarter so that we are at least closer to the numbers and things relative to that keeps changing. So it’s mostly on the shipment side as we see and as we close the books, there are a few variabilities that happens on the pricing side, as well as on the cost side. So we have been beating except for a quarter where we had a coke fire, which was unexpected, and that led to -- and the plate mill that led to certain issues. But we’ve been consistent in providing a reasonable guidance, and based on how the quarter ends, it’s normally closer to the higher end.

Ahmad Shaath

Analyst · Ahmad Shaath with Beacon Securities. Please proceed with your question

Fair enough. That’s very helpful. And maybe -- and this could be a disclosure and if I missed this, I apologize guys, but talk to us about the revolver. It’s back to the receivables and the inventory you’re talking about some release of that. So how is that going to work, as you guys plan to finance some of the CapEx using that facility as well. So maybe talk to us about the moving parts there, I mean, how is that -- if there is any potential impact on your liquidity from the revolver?

Rajat Marwah

Analyst · Ahmad Shaath with Beacon Securities. Please proceed with your question

Sure and good question. There is a lot of unused availability that we have under our revolving credit facility and that’s just given by the amount of inventories and receivables that we have on the balance sheet. So the amount that we can borrow under the revolver is US$300 million, let’s say, it’s CAD400 million and when you look at our balance sheet, we’ve got $700 million of inventories and $300 million roughly million of receivables, almost $1 billion. And even after reducing the inventories that I’m suggesting, we will still have enough capacity under our ABL to borrow the entire amount. So that’s how it will play out. So we will be able to release a lot of inventory and create liquidity there, but it should not impact our revolver from that perspective.

Ahmad Shaath

Analyst · Ahmad Shaath with Beacon Securities. Please proceed with your question

That’s very helpful. Thanks, Rajat, and I’ll get back in the queue.

Operator

Operator

And we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I’ll now turn the call back over to Michael Garcia for closing remarks.

Michael Garcia

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

Thank you. Thank all of you again for your participation in our fourth quarter fiscal 2023 earnings conference call and for your continued interest in Algoma Steel. We look forward to updating you on our results and progress when we report our fiscal fourth quarter results later this summer.

Rajat Marwah

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And this…

Michael Garcia

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And this -- I am sorry, and this concludes today’s conference and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.