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Transcript
OP
Operator
Operator
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the AngloGold Ashanti Q4 Results Analyst Teleconference. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Stewart Bailey. Please go ahead.
SB
Stewart Bailey
Analyst
Thanks, Shaun. Welcome everybody to this presentation of our results for the fourth quarter and the full year 2014 and I am going to start off by reading the Safe Harbor Statement, and then run into the agenda. Certain statements contained in this document, other than statements of historical fact including, without limitation, those concerning the economic outlook for gold mining industry, expectations regarding gold prices, production, cash costs, all-in sustaining costs, all-in costs, cost savings and other operating results, return on equity, productivity improvements, growth prospects and outlook of our operations, individually or in the aggregate, including the achievement of project milestones, commencement and completion of commercial operations of certain of our exploration and production project and the completion of acquisitions and dispositions of joint venture transactions, our liquidity and capital resources and capital expenditures and the outcome and consequence of any potential or pending litigation or regulatory proceedings or environmental health and safety issues are forward-looking statements regarding our operations, economic performance and financial condition. These forward-looking statements or forecasts involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from the anticipated results, performance or achievements expressed or implied in these forward-looking statements. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements and forecasts are reasonable, no assurance can be given that these expectations will prove to have been correct. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-looking statements as a result of, among other factors, changes in the economic, social and political and market conditions, the success of business and operating initiatives, changes in the regulatory environments and other government actions, including environmental approvals, fluctuations in gold prices and exchange rates, the outcome of pending or future litigation proceedings,…
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead, Ken
Thank you, Stewart. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen or good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. I'll be quickly referring to some of the slides in here, starting with slide number 6, our strategy of delivering sustainable free cash flow and returns, to recap, it's built on five pillars. Firstly getting the foundation right, which is around safety, people and sustainability, then ensuring that we have the financial flexibility to operate and deliver on our objectives. Thirdly, maintaining strict cost discipline across all of the aspects of the business. Fourthly, improving the quality of our portfolio continuously. And then finally remembering that mining is indeed a long-term gain and preserving and improving the long-term optionality within the business. Turning on to the highlights page, which is slide number 7, our reports announced today shows eight consecutive quarter of delivery in terms of our performance. If you look at our full year performance, production was 4.436 million ounces, except the top end of our market guidance, its 8% growth year-on-year, 12% when you compare it to 2012 and importantly second year of delivery to annual guidance. All-in sustaining cost at $1,026 per ounce came in at lower end of guidance and shows a 13% improvement year-on-year. A similar trend on all-in cost which has come in 22% improved year-on-year on the back of growth in profitable output here notably Kibali and Tropicana, tight cost management and capital discipline. And as Christine will cover in her presentation, adjusted EBITDA has been flat year-on-year despite a 10% drop in gold price and free cash flow improved significantly compared to what it was last year, it was minus 112 as compared to a burn rate of about a $1 billion after fully funding interest capital expenditure, funding of one once-off Obuasi retrenchments and Rand Refinery loan.…
RL
Ron Largent
Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead, Ken
Thank you, Venkat. And good morning. I will discuss the quarter-four 2014 operating results for Continental Africa, Australia and the Americas region. I will not discuss each asset individually as they are within the quarterly report. Firstly, the company's safety performance was covered by Venkat earlier, but I want to re-emphasize the commitment of the operating group for the continued quarter-on-quarter improvements. We as management are very appreciative of the hard work the operating teams have shown in obtaining the milestones, but understand the commitment and work required in continuing driving these outcomes. Each quarter, I comment on the cost rationalization work and I've asked you to continue to watch the outcomes on a quarterly basis. The objective of moving – removing the US$500 million from the operating cost over an 18-month timeframe ended in quarter four 2014 and was achieved. This cost rationalization work has been transferred into the operating business improvement initiative process, now cost improvements are continuing to be managed via site general managers and the corporate business improvements structures. The VI [ph] work includes contract management, goal procurement, ore body scheduling after the efficiencies and many others. We've now moved the efforts of the process into asset scheduling and efficiency improvements. We've also included considerable cost savings into our 2015 plan. International operations achieved an all-in sustainable cost of $987 per ounce for 2014, it’s particularly interesting to reflect that the Continental Africa regions all-in sustainable costs of US$970 per ounce reduced 35% year-on-year and is at the lowest levels since 2010. So, I'd like to go to slide 13 and make comments on each region very quickly. The Continental Africa region production for quarter four of 2014 was 419,000 ounces at a cash cost of $687 an ounce compared to 460,000 ounces at a cash…
MO
Mike O'Hare
Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead, Ken
Thanks. Morning, all. If I could start safety and talk a little bit about the – the fact that we had a really good 2014 where we achieved a million fatal free shift in the quarter across everyone of our operations and unfortunately we then had a fatality at Kopanang mine which is the first one since 2012, which was followed rapidly thereafter the two more fatality at Mponeng [ph] and both of those event reduced the production significantly at both of those mines. [indiscernible] we've had another fatality at Mponeng during Q1 and which shows us that despite the fact that we went over 250 days of that fatality, we just cannot let our guide for a minute. But given the long-term trend in our fatalities I am confident that we will continue on our journey towards here. Having said that, I think we need to note that both Kopanang and TauTona had good performances during the quarter both from a production and cost point of view, Surface Sources remind me the hard rock MOD at a stead quarter and Mine Waste Solutions continue with a slow improvements and its pleasing announce that they produced a maiden uranium with 4000 kilograms of uranium being produced during the quarter. I'll move to slide 19, talk a little bit about what we're doing with cost. Ron mentioned the project 500 work and you'll see the results in our region of that over a number of years. You need to look at this graph against the background of the planning production as we cut low grade ounces. And as you seen during the year we've cut both at Kopanang and Great Noligwa and I would like to unpack a little bit further what we're really done in terms of the cost restructuring…
GE
Graham Ehm
Analyst
Thanks, Mike. I'll start with Obuasi on slide 24. We advised in mid 2014 as a plan to wind down the operation at Obuasi and conduct feasibility study into the mines future. At the end of December with the approval of the government of Ghana wind of the operation was completed and we're now in the limited operating phase, which involves care and maintenance of the fixed asset, re-treatment of tailings from the Diawusu [ph] area and continue action f the development of available Obuasi decline. Into our Obuasi workforce which released and the workforce was employed for the limited operating five. We have made good progress on the feasibility study with the assistance of SRK who are helping us overall coordination and ultimately sign off the rig. The future operation was shaping up as 5 to 6000 tonnes a day, mechanized underground mine. The new operation is being designed on this tape grade eliminating low margin ounces and targeting a 20% and 30% all-in sustaining cost margin at the current spot price. To achieve these lower cost structures, we remain to in-invest in plant and infrastructure refurbishing the KMS shaft to achieve the high capacity, upgrade the underground materials handling system, construct the processing plant and refurbish the mill. Importantly, we will establish a new operating model similar to that as Sunrise Dam with an integrated approach to grade control, mine geology, mine planning, mechanized contract mining and long hauls trucking. When we defined the scope of Obuasi's development in the phase ability study, we'll present our plans to the government and other key stakeholders and obtaining the necessary licenses and permit. Consequently, 2015 will be year in which Obuasi will remain the limited operating phase, while the future of the operation is optimized and the necessary agreements and…
CR
Christine Ramon
Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead
Thank you, Graham. Good morning and good afternoon everyone. As we heard from Venkat we have consistently delivered on our production and cost target ahead of guidance for quarter four 2014 beating market consensus view amidst continuing adverse market condition. Our focus remains on strengthening the balance sheet in the medium term and creating a prudent buffer for volatility. We will achieve this by prioritizing the generation of sustainable free cash flow from our diverse diversified portfolio of assets and focus on progressing self transmission. I will now talk in more detail for our fourth quarter and full year performance, as well as our balance sheet focus before I end on the outlook for quarter one and full year 2015. Moving on to slide 32. Our favorable trajectory on cost continue discipline on all cost and strict capital allocation. Overall full year production levels increased by 8% compared to last year, reflecting the first full year of production from Kibali and Tropicana which underpinned improvement in all-in sustaining cost of 13%. In addition, a strong focus on the reduction of direct operating cost, corporate overhead and exploration costs has enabled to deliver significant savings both in quarter four and for the full year as reflected in the lower cash cost and all-in sustaining cost. Capital expenditure has reduced by 24% in quarter four and by 39% for the full year compared to last year, reflecting project completion and capital prioritization. Slide 33, corporate and exploration cost have reduced by approximately two thirds respectively from its peak in 2012. We believe that we reached sustainable levels in corporate overhead taking into account inflation, while a strong focus on cost optimization and cost discipline will continue. As you heard from Graham, we continue to focus on fewer countries for Greenfield exploration, including…
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead, Ken
Thanks, Christine. If we can conclude, on slides 42, 43 and 44 and the focus here is what we have done on our portfolio, the focus on margins and the investment gains. Looking at our portfolio over the last two years we have made significant improvements to that, we have brought on stream two new low cost mines Tropicana and Kibali. As Ron mentioned the mill has been installed successfully at CC&V and the mine life extension is currently underway. Our reef boring technology in South Africa continues to progress well, improved productivity and unlock higher grade ounces that would have not otherwise been accessible. We're also converting for example our Sunrise Dam mine in Australia to a more productive and profitable operation. We have monetize our mine in Namibia. We have addressed loss making ounce at Yatela and Obuasi and we will reopen Obuasi as a mechanized productive modern profitable high grade operation. Looking at slide number 43, focusing on margins. Our focused improved cash margins over this period, as you will see from the slide has been relentless. If you look at the quarterly profile and from the peak of Q4 2012 and the little triangle there referenced to all-in cost we have pulled over thousand dollars an ounce from the quarterly peak. With regard to all-in sustaining cost, which is the yellow bar highlighted on the slide, we have reduced over $500 an ounce from that quarterly peak as well. The extent of this reduction either when you take into account relative to where we were and our ability to fight inflationary pressures and sustain this over eight quarters, compared very favorably in relative to the peer group within the gold mining industry. In fact we have gone far further than what we rest of the industry…
SB
Stewart Bailey
Analyst
Thanks, Ron. We are happy take questions on the line.
OP
Operator
Operator
All right, thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Ken Raskin from UBS. Please go ahead, Ken.
KR
Ken Raskin
Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead, Ken
Hi there, gents. Yes, just a few questions. Mike, just maybe for you first, just looking at the underground grade in SA, and it seems to have picked up quite a bit this last quarter, and I guess even if we look on an annual basis, versus, say, something like 2012, it's up about 10%. So I know you've spoken about these sort of sweet spots in previous quarters. Can you just maybe provide some color on that in terms of what we should expect going forward? And also, on the technology, do you have a sort of target of what you're looking at this year in terms of ounces? And then, yes, just finally on Geita, I see the costs there significantly lower. I know volumes are up there, but should we be expecting on Geita going forward?
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead, Ken
So Ken, Mike will pick up the first two questions and then Ron will pick up the third.
MO
Mike O'Hare
Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead, Ken
Ken, kind of let me talk to the grade first, what we've been continuously trying to do is eliminate low cost ounces, in other words ounces that fall below our cutoff grade. So I have mentioned that reductions at Great Noligwa and we've largely stop mining the low grade series there. We've cut low grade ounces out of Kopanang and that part self increases the underground grade mine. The increase that we've seen is largely coming from Moab Khotsong and again if you have look at reserve grade, we're mining very close to the reserve grade. And in fact, the only mine that looks strange from a reserve grade point of view is actually Great Noligwa, which seems to be mining if you compare the reserve grades and the actual grades that we are mining differently to the reserves grade and that’s coming on the back of us, now mining no series and a slight increase in the dilution due to the fact that we mix product at Great Noligwa i.e. we put the our development together with that. And so into the future we expect this a similar kind of grade in SA region from the underground mine, technically – sorry, then technology as far as the ounces are concerned, we talked about a 100 kilograms for 2014 and I'd be looking towards 500 kilograms on for 2015.
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead, Ken
Ron, on Geita cost?
RL
Ron Largent
Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead, Ken
On Geita I mean, I guess we can say there is been considerable work done at Geita to get us where we ended in 2014, cash cost will be probably be marginally higher in 2015. So I think in general more the same, but marginally higher in 2015.
KR
Ken Raskin
Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead, Ken
All right, thank you. And just to say, Ron, is the level of production going to be similar to this last quarter, the 140?
RL
Ron Largent
Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead, Ken
No, I think the last quarter was higher was not than expected than we thought because of the grade distribution of the grade. So on average for 2015 it will be annualized slightly higher.
KR
Ken Raskin
Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead, Ken
Okay.
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead, Ken
In fact what we are projecting for Geita for 2015, we have given range the top end of that range is close to 496,000 ounces for Tanzania.
KR
Ken Raskin
Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead, Ken
Okay. Thanks a lot guys.
OP
Operator
Operator
All right, thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Andrew Byrne from Barclays. Please go ahead.
AB
Andrew Byrne
Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead
Hi. Good afternoon, guys. Ron, I'll try not to get too bogged down with this set of results, because I don't know, if there's too much new information. I was wondering if you could maybe talk us through kind of what the company looks like in two or three years. And I appreciate there's a lot of moving parts, but from the outside, when we look at AngloGold, we see a company that's produced about 4 million ounces, plus or minus, for the last four or five years, but obviously, the mix and the quality of those ounces has changed quite a bit over this time as Kibali, Tropicana and Geita have come on. But then, equally, there's an awful lot of moving parts with bringing in JVs, closing down Obuasi. When you look at 2017, 2018, you're assuming a flat gold price. What do you see the free cash flow potential of the company being once you've paid down some of the debt, potentially, for your asset sales? Can you give us a feel for what the company looks like in that period?
RL
Ron Largent
Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead
I think really Andrew you are asking us to look ahead 2018, 2019 free cash flow potential is going to be taken by the gold price but what we are focused on right now is removing the marginal assets an ounces from the portfolio, pulling down our cost curve. Certainly as you see us going into 2016, 2017 you will start to see Obuasi pick up and expansions potentially taking place in some of the key assets such as data, et cetera. So you will see a certainly our Tier One assets largely impact, so we'll be very careful in terms of picking which asset we JV in this regard for value. But certainly looking ahead, we'd expect to see our Tier One assets largely impact and continued development across those Tier One assets. In South Africa, we'd expect to see technology bringing more ounces. We'd expect to see in Mponeng Phase II expansion go ahead with a view to bringing more cash flows from South Africa on to the table. But what you'll also see is some of the rats and mice [ph] [indiscernible] follow up the portfolio. That’s really how we look at it when we project the portfolio of going out into the future. Importantly, what we want to ensure is that we sit on the right side of the cost curve, because clearly we don’t control the gold price, certainly not when you look ahead to 2018, 2019, but what we want to do is to manage the cost, so that when the gold price pops we provide sufficient leverage to the gold price. So that’s really where the focus is in terms of portfolio.
AB
Andrew Byrne
Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead
Okay. Thanks very much.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Tanya [ph] at Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
UA
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst
Great. Thank you. Good afternoon, everybody. I just have a couple of questions. I'm going to start off with Obuasi, and maybe, Venkat, you can give us an outlook for the next 12 to 18 months in terms of the key milestones for Obuasi that we can look forward to, and maybe remind me what the reclamation liability is on that property?
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead, Ken
Okay. Let me give you the milestones you can look forward to when we stood in 2013, we said in 2014 we want to take the mine into limited operating state, by the end of 2014 early 2015 we got there early. We actually – the underground production seized in November of 2014. So the milestone in 2015 is really the following, delivery of a feasibility study and optimize business case during the course of the year. Two, consultations with the government in terms of input [indiscernible] to the feasibility study. Three is continued development of the underground decline, we are at 20 level already, we want to progress that with the jumbo we currently have at Obuasi. So when we stand up at the time when we announce our results for 2015 and early 2016, we want to be in a position to say this is the outcome of the feasibility study, government buy-in received and how do we see the development going either on our own or through a joint venture partner. That’s really where our thinking us. 2013 was preparing the ground, 2014 taking it into limited operating state, 2015 is limited operating state, 2016 is basically giving the pathway into the development of the mine, that’s really the milestones we are looking at this stage.
UA
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst
And then, Venkat, when you say minimal production for this year, what exactly is minimal? And then remember the reclamation liability.
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead, Ken
Yes, sure. With regard to the production for this year, for 2015 we are showing no underground production, production is purely from tailings treatment and it’s a small amount Ron actually say its about 20,000 ounces coming in that regard. With regard to the reclamation liability Christine can figure up?
CR
Christine Ramon
Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead
Yes. It’s about $200 million and I think to bear in mind that it does actually vary with discount rate changes and re estimation of liability. So we just see some adjustments in this last quarter with regard to that.
UA
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst
Okay. And that’s US$200 million?
CR
Christine Ramon
Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead
Perfect.
UA
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst
Okay. Perfect. And actually, Christine, while I have you there, can you also give me what the book value is for Cripple Creek, now that we've been spending all of this capital?
CR
Christine Ramon
Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead
It’s about - in the region of about $950 million.
UA
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst
Okay. Perfect. Thank you, there. Sorry, I just had a bit of cold. And then, Venkat – I'm sorry, thank you very much for that, Christine. Maybe just also just thinking about your overall strategy, you talked a bit about obviously bringing down this debt by about $1b, I think Christine said over the next few years, which is your medium-term goal, and we talked about obviously cost cutting and then asset sales. When you talk about joint venturing of assets, would we assume that if that was to occur, that you would maintain operatorship of operating assets?
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead, Ken
Yes, firstly just to put in context here, the $1 billion was an aspirational target where we are trying to see how we can get to the interest build, it doesn’t need to come all from asset sales, we can choose to finance a stub using a lower cost instrument. So our point of view what are looking at is basically in terms of balance sheet yes, deleverarging to give us some cushion in terms of gold price volatility. If any assets we look at joint venturing, we'd obviously to want to keep the operatorship because of the historical knowledge of that particular asset and also to participate in our share of the upside going out into the future. So, any JV having operatorship by ADA is a big plus point when it comes to both AngloGold Ashanti and for any joint venture partner.
UA
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst
Okay. Perfect. Thank you very much.
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead, Ken
Thank you.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you, Tanya. Our final question comes from Harry Mateer from Barclays. Please go ahead.
HM
Harry Mateer
Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead
Hi. Good afternoon. Just a couple questions. I guess, first, you did mention the credit ratings during the call and talked about your debt reduction medium-term aspirations. Can you just update for us where you stand with the rating agencies, in particular, and whether you see a potential for movement on the negative outlooks that are currently in place on the ratings.
CR
Christine Ramon
Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead
Sorry, I just switched off. The question is about the credit rating?
HM
Harry Mateer
Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead
And yes, and whether there is going to be any movement on the credit ratings…
MO
Mike O'Hare
Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead
On the other negative outlooks, yes.
CR
Christine Ramon
Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead
Yes, I think you know, we [indiscernible] operating agencies that are on the line, on the call, so I think we do have some ratings review meetings coming up, but in terms of the review that have actually been recently conducted, I've reaffirmed our status with a negative outlook, but I think quite importantly is the views on the gold sector actually does, actually impacts on the ratings agency view. And I think let's leave it that. The important thing is that we do focus on the factors under our control and I think the focus will remain and if we got that going forward.
HM
Harry Mateer
Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead
Okay, thank you. And then, Venkat, when you talk about using lower-cost instruments to get interest costs down, can you elaborate on that? Are you talking about potential convertible issuance or any other leverage you're looking at there? A - Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan No, we are not referring to any particular instruments, just given an example where we financed it that stage in market conditions which were not conducive, so we paid a high yield coupon and couple with that we put an issue as called which is also our estimate of premium, we'll that make that call nearer the time based on market conditions prevailing at that point in time.
HM
Harry Mateer
Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead
Got it. Thank you. Thanks very much, Shaun. I think that’s it from us. Thank you everyone for your attention and we'll chat again in three months.
OP
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of AngloGold Ashanti, that concludes today's conference. And thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.