Earnings Labs

AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU)

Q1 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, May 12, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the AngloGold Ashanti Analyst Conference. All participants are now in listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after today’s presentation. [Operator Instructions] Please also note that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Stewart Bailey. Please go ahead.

Stewart Bailey

Analyst

Thanks very much, Dylan. And thank you, everybody, for your time today and for joining us for our Q1 results for the three months through March 31. A pretty full agenda today; as usual, we have Venkat starting off with the introductory remarks. He’ll pass over to Mike O’Hare to talk us through the South African operation. Ron Largent will talk us through the international portfolio, Graham Ehm through projects and exploration. And then Christine will talk us through the detail of the earnings and cash flow. And then Venkat will wrap up. As usual, we’re just going to read through the Safe Harbor statement. Certain statements contained in this document, other than statements of historical facts including, without limitation, those concerning the economic outlook for gold mining industry, expectations regarding gold prices, productions, cash costs, all-in sustaining costs, all-in costs, cost savings and other operating results, return on equity, productivity improvements, growth prospects and outlook of our operations, individually or in the aggregate, including the achievement of project milestones, commencement and completion of commercial operations of certain of our exploration and production projects and the completion of acquisitions and dispositions of joint venture transactions, AngloGold Ashanti’s liquidity and capital resources and capital expenditures and the outcome and consequence of any potential or pending litigation or regulatory proceedings or environmental health and safety issues are forward-looking statements regarding our operations, economic performance and financial condition. These forward-looking statements or forecasts involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from the anticipated results, performance or achievements expressed or implied in these forward-looking statements. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements and forecasts are reasonable, no assurance can be given that expectations will prove to have…

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

Thank you, Stewart. It’s now close to 43 months since the gold price started to fall-back from its peak in September 2011. And in this challenging backdrop, ladies and gentlemen, I’m pleased to present another strong set of results from AngloGold Ashanti. Whilst these are good results, we still see scope for further improvements which is encouraging from our side. 24 months ago, when we developed our five simple building blocks of our strategy, to drive sustainable cash flow, improvements and returns, if I can recap what they are: the foundation being safety, people and sustainability; secondly, ensuring that we have financial flexibility to deliver on our objectives; thirdly, taking a close look at our cost across all of the metrics, to optimize the cost in a manner which enables us to generate further returns for our shareholders; improving the portfolio quality of our asset base; and finally, keeping our long-term optionality preserved as, at the end of the day, mining is indeed a long term game. Now turning to the key highlights, we delivered a strong performance at the group level, underpinned once again by a stellar performance from our international mines. And the international operations certainly knocked the ball out of the park this quarter. As we flagged previously, when we issued our Q1 2015 outlook back in February, South Africa’s performance was negatively impacted by safety stoppages and more of that later. Looking at some of the highlights, our overall performance clearly showed the benefit of the portfolio diversification. Production at 969,000 ounces exceeded guidance of 900,000 to 940,000 ounces. Total cash cost of $744 an ounce was down 3% year-on-year and it certainly was ahead of guidance. All-in sustaining cost of $926 an ounce was 7% down year-on-year and all-in cost at $1,026 an ounce was…

Ron Largent

Analyst

Thank you, Mike. I’ll discuss the quarter one 2015 operating results for Continental Africa, Australia and the Americas region. I will not discuss each individual asset as those results are contained within the quarterly report. Cost management continues to be a focus of the operating team. The primary areas for our work is focusing are around direct operating cost, stay-in-business capital and working capital. Additional work that has potential to impact mine site expenditures and cost structures is around detailed mine designs, mining method analysis and process optimization. If we look at Slide 14, it’s an overall view of the international operating group. The Group performed well on all production-related metrics during quarter one. Production totaled 730,000 ounces compared to 713,000 ounces in quarter one 2014, with an associated 12% reduction in all-in sustainable costs. This reduction in cost can be summarized into three general categories: one, the weakening of exchange rate and fuel pricing; secondly, optimization of mining method and design; and third, labor and consumable efficiencies and pricing. Now, looking at Continental Africa, Slide 15, production for quarter one was 351,000 ounces at a cash cost of $714 an ounce, compared to cash cost of $808 in quarter one 2014. Although, the production - ounce production reduced on the year-on-year comparison, this reduction was due to planned plant shutdowns at both Iduapriem and Siguiri, which both were completed on time and on budget. Geita mine produced 118,000 ounces at a cash cost of $579. This improvement can be attributed to higher grades from the Nyankanga ore body and cost reductions through efficiencies and planning as previously discussed. The Kibali mine, operated by Randgold, had a very good quarter one, producing 73,000 attributable ounces at cash cost of $630 per ounce. Slide 16, Americas region production for quarter one…

Graham Ehm

Analyst

Thanks, Ron. This morning I’d like to cover Obuasi, Kibali, Cripple Creek, and exploration at Tropicana. So on Slide 20, having shutdown the main operation at the end of last year, we’ve just completed our first quarter of a one-year limited operating phase. Retreatment of the Diawuoso tailings and some remnant stockpiles has gone better than planned this quarter, producing about 18,000 ounces. Development of Obuasi Deeps Decline and grade control drilling in Blockade Lower are going quite well. We will complete the draft feasibility study as planned this quarter, but will continue to optimize this in the second-half of the year. In the second-half of the year, we will engage with key stakeholders and in particular the Ghana Minerals Commission and the EPA, in regard to the approach to Obuasi’s redevelopment to obtain the requisite approvals. We’ll also start work on detailed project execution and operational readiness planning. The next slide shows the approach that we will take to their redevelopment of Obuasi’s underground mine. The focus will be at the southern end of the mine. The ODD decline has reached the top of block 8 lower. The plan is that over time the decline will be aggressively deepened accessing blocks 9, 10 and 11. Three main mining methods will be used, transverse and longitudinal long-hole stoping in the wide and more consistent lodes, and underhand drift and fill in the narrower, more variable, but higher-grade zones. Mining rates will be 6,000 tonnes per day in the long-hole areas and 4,500 tonnes per day in the narrow areas. While the planned focus is on the reserves, there is considerable upside within the inferred resource and areas that have seen very little drilling over time. We will use as much of the existing infrastructure as possible, including the KRS shaft…

Christine Ramon

Analyst

Thank you, Graham, and good day, everyone. As you can see from another strong set of results, our first quarter’s performance reflects sustained operational delivery, again beating market consensus views. These numbers reflect the strength of our portfolio and clearly differentiate AngloGold Ashanti from the majority of our peer group. As you’ll all be aware, the global macroeconomic environment remains volatile, with obvious downside risk. Hence, our continued focus on strengthening the balance sheet in the medium-term in order to improve free cash flow generation and create a buffer for volatility. I’ll now talk to the detail of our first quarter performance concluding on the second quarter and the full-year outlook. Moving to Slide 29. As we heard from Venkat, we’ve delivered ahead of guidance on our overall production and cost targets despite the safety stoppages that affected our South African operations. Notwithstanding a 6% weaker gold price and 8% lower production, we also delivered a strong cost performance, underpinned by a 7% reduction in all-in sustaining costs. The $67-per-ounce reduction in all-in sustaining cost was well supported by our cost optimization initiatives, whilst we saw significant benefit from weaker currencies and lower oil prices. We remain sensitive to the oil price and currency and confirm our sensitivities at budgeted oil and exchange rate assumptions, which we issue with caution. Just to recap, every $10-per-barrel change in the average Brent crude oil price will impact our cash costs by approximately $7 per ounce, while a 1% weakening in our currency basket will positively impact cash cost by approximately $6 per ounce. Adjusted EBITDA was solid at $409 million for the first quarter, despite lower gold price and lower ounces sold. Free cash flow before financing cost was $20 million compared to $87 million last year. The big swing in free…

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

Thank you, Christine. In wrapping up, if I can cover three broad areas. First around consistency, second around our performance against our strategic scorecard, and finally our investment case. As the slide before you will show, we built a good track record of consistency and delivery on our quarterly guidance. We’ve either met or beaten every production and cost target which we have set during the last two years and more. We are into our ninth consecutive quarter of consistent delivery despite a number of headwinds that are common in a company such as ours operating in gold mining. However, as I reiterate every quarter, mining is a long-term game and there’s always a chance that we might miss a quarter or two here and there. But so far we have banked all of the quarters to date and the trajectory looks positive. Turning to our progress against our scorecard, starting with the foundation around people, safety and sustainability, good progress in respect of people and sustainability front as we have shown in terms of what has been achieved in Ghana and in South Africa, for example. On safety, we have achieved our lowest ever all injury frequency rate. And it’s a good leading indicator, but work in progress to getting it to zero harm. On balance sheet, we’ve managed to keep our debt level steady despite the drop in the gold price. And obviously work is underway in this area. On cost, as Christine articulated, we have been relentless in terms of our cost optimization strategy. And that has actually held us in good stead and we have been certainly assisted this quarter by weaker currency and oil prices. On the portfolio, progress is going well on the Sadiola and Yatela sale discussions with our joint venture partner. Progress…

Stewart Bailey

Analyst

Dylan, ready to take questions on this side.

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much, Stewart. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Kane Slutzkin of UBS. Please go ahead.

Kane Slutzkin

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

Hi there, gents [ph]. Mike, if I could just maybe ask you a question just on the technology. I mean, obviously with you leaving now and you’ve been a quite a key sort of figure with that, are you still - are we sort of confident there’s a good succession plan in terms of that technology? And then secondly, just on - maybe this is for Venkat. On the sale or JV of CC&V, given this is obviously a mine that’s growing production over the next couple of years, is it a fair assumption that you would ideally like to go the JV route because you want to keep some of that optionality, or is it a case of more money in the bank the better.

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

Mike, do you want to go first? Mike O’Hare: Yes. I’ll go first. Thanks, Kane. I get what you’re asking. Often people leave and a project sort of slightly dies. I don’t think that’s going to happen to the technology work we’ve done here. And the reason what I’m confident on that is the way we’re mining the particular cap-turner [ph] high-grade pillar with reef boring, it is the only way to get to that reef safely, there is no other way. And given the grade we have in there, it’s certainly a high-value proposition. So the nucleus of the project there will definitely continue. I think it’s up to the team, and we have a fairly significant team on the ground now, to demonstrate that they can drill the holes in the time period per hole that we’ve given them. And there’s no reason why they shouldn’t do that because 25% of the machines are currently there. Then the next step would be to ensure we can do this every day of the year. And that really depends on negotiations with the government and the unions. And there’s nothing in either of those negotiations so far that show us that that can’t be done. So I’m confident that the team’s in place. I know Chris well and this is one of Chris’s passions. So if it deserves to succeed, it will.

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

Yes. Thanks, Mike. And certainly if I can reaffirm, in terms of succession, in terms of reef boring technology, absolutely aligned. The team is still in place, and based on all of our discussions with Chris Sheppard, certainly he’s excited about what this can actually achieve in terms of South African production going forward. In terms of your second question on CC&V, Kane, as I said, we’re keeping all options open and we’re going to be driven by value considerations. There’s nothing more I can say at this stage.

Kane Slutzkin

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

All right. Thanks, guys. All the best, Mike. Mike O’Hare: Thanks, Kane.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Andrew Byrne of Barclays. Please go ahead.

Andrew Byrne

Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead

Hi. Good afternoon, guys. Just more an opportunity for you really just to give us a bit more color on 2Q. Obviously your cost guidance is for increases. We’ve had a great performance from the international portfolio in 1Q. Could you just talk if there’s any particular items that we should really bear in mind when modeling 2Q?

Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan

Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead

I’ll pick it up, if you want, Andrew, first, and then my colleagues can come in. Really in terms of modeling, South Africa had quite a bad quarter in Q1. So we are anticipating a steady ramp up which actually comes through into Q2. It’s not get - it doesn’t get to the level we want, notably at Mponeng. But we’re expecting the impact of the safety stoppages to be lower. So certainly better than Q1, but not where we want it to be. That’s in terms of South Africa to bear in mind. On the cost side, you’ve also got to bear in mind that the winter power tariff kicks in. And there are more months of winter power tariff that actually kicks in Q2 than Q3. So that’s also been factored in. And I’m not sure if Ron or Graham or Mike want to cover any specific operations where there are movements at this stage. But typically, Andrew, we don’t guide quarterly individual mine-by-mine performance. It’s generally taken care of in our outlook. Dylan?

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we have no further questions. Stewart, do you have any closing comments?

Stewart Bailey

Analyst

No, nothing further from me. I think thanks to all of you, for making the time. And we look forward to hosting you again in three months. Thank you.