Rodrigo Aravena
Management
Hi, Yuri, this is Rodrigo Aravena. Thank you very much for your question. I'm going to take the first question. In terms of the loan growth, what we have today and what we also believe is that there is like a decoupling between the loan cycle compared to the GDP growth. In fact, if you analyze, for example, the loans to GDP rate in Chile, that number today is around 76%, 77% in terms of the nominal loans compared to the nominal GDP in pesos. Which is a number that is well below the numbers that we used to have in the past. It's worth to mention, for example, that because the pandemic, the number was higher than 80%. During the pandemic, the number was even close to 90%. But we acknowledge the season of temporary factors that increased that temporarily that ratio between low GDP. But all in all, we think that 76%, 77% is below the numbers consistent with the fundamentals, but there are some explanation on that. When we analyze the chart that we showed in the presentation, we can see that there is a very important delay in terms of consumer loans which are nearly 20% in real terms below the level that we have by 2019, but there are some explanations behind that, for example, the very high levels of interest rate that we have until the previous year and also the excess of liquidity that negatively affected the demand for consumer loans. And also, we have an important delay for commercial loans, bad explanation of that placed with the very weak investment growth that we've seen during the last year. It is also important to keep in mind that despite the positive economic growth that we had last year, the main driver of that growth was related with exports rather than domestic demand. In that aspect, we have to remember that the key driver for loans is related with the domestic demand. And in this area, we are more optimistic for the future since today, we have a better leading indicator for investment. A similar story we have for [private] consumption. So basically, this year, we are expecting that at the better domestic demand, which at least partially offset the weakness in total exports. So that's why we're expecting a gradual recovery in loans for the future. What is reasonable to expect in the long term? It's reasonable to see elasticity of loans to GDP of a number of around 1.5x like that, and sometimes it would be higher in more negative times, it could be a bit lower, but the elasticity that we have today is not sustainable for the long term. And so basically, what we have today is an important delay a decoupling, but in the future, it's reasonable to expect a recovery in both commercial loans and consumer loans, which are our main targets.