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Banco de Chile (BCH)

Q3 2025 Earnings Call· Fri, Nov 7, 2025

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to Banco de Chile's Third Quarter 202 Results Conference Call. If you need a copy of the financial management review, it is available on the company's website. Today with us, we have Mr. Rodrigo Aravena, Chief Economist and Institutional Relations Officer; Mr. Pablo Mejia, Head of Investor Relations; and Daniel Galarce, Head of Financial Control and Capital. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that this call is being recorded, and the information discussed today may include forward-looking statements regarding the company's financial and operating performance. All projections are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially. Please refer to the detailed notes in the company's press release regarding forward-looking statements. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Rodrigo Aravena. Please go ahead.

Rodrigo Aravena

Management

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining this conference call, where we will present the key results and developments achieved by our bank during the third quarter of this year. We are pleased to report that Banco de Chile has once again delivered strong results, reaffirming our solid market position. Our performance this quarter reflects not only robust financial outcomes, but also meaningful progress in a strategic initiative that strengthens our long-term competitiveness. Key highlights for the quarter include net income as of September 2025 reached CLP 927 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.9% that resulted in an ROAC of 22.3%. These results were driven by strong customer income, fund asset quality and ongoing efficiency improvements. These achievements are particularly significant given the challenging macroeconomic and political environment marked by subdued loan growth, especially among corporations. In times of uncertainty, solid fundamentals and proven risk management become critical differentiators. Banco de Chile continues to stand out among peers in asset quality, additional provisions and capital strength, providing resilience and a solid basis for the future. Let's now turn to the macroeconomic context. Please refer to Slide #3. Consistent with the trend observed in previous quarters, the Chilean economy continues to show signs of recovery, particularly in consumption and investments. As illustrated in the graph on the left, GDP growth has maintained an upward trajectory since the second half of 2024, supported by a notable rebound in domestic demand. In the second quarter of this year, GDP expanded by 3.1% year-on-year, remaining above the estimated long-term potential growth rate of around 2%, which resulted in a 2.8% year-on-year expansion in the first half of this year. It is worth noting that this acceleration occurred despite a moderation in external demand. Export growth slowed to 5.4% year-on-year in the second quarter,…

Pablo Ricci

Management

Thank you, Rodrigo. Let's turn to Slide 8, which brings our strategy and ambitions into focus. It's our road map for growth and leadership. The core of our strategy is guided by a well-defined purpose, which is to contribute to the progress of Chile, its people and its companies. Supporting this are our guiding principles that shape how we operate in the medium term, efficiency, collaboration and a customer-first mindset and a focus on creating value in the areas we compete. These elements ensure our agility, innovation and long-term sustainability. On the right, our midterm targets show where we're heading. industry-leading profitability, market leadership in lending and local currency deposits, superior service quality as reflected by a top Net Promoter Score and a strong corporate reputation among the top 3 companies in Chile. We're also committed to efficiency, which translates into a cost-to-income ratio that must remain below 42%, driven by digital transformation and continuous improvements in technology and operational processes. In short, this strategy enables us to deliver sustainable growth and create lasting value for all of our stakeholders. Please move to Slide 9, where we will go over our key business achievements. In the third quarter of 2025, we continued advancing initiatives that strengthen our position as a more efficient digital and sustainable institution. A major milestone this quarter was the successful integration of our former collection services subsidiary, SOCOFIN, into the bank's operations. This merger was completed without affecting productivity metrics for the collection of overdue loans and has generated important cost and operational synergies that have translated into increased efficiency and enhanced customer experience. Productivity also continued to rise in the third quarter of 2025, driven by technological innovation and digital solutions. In consumer loan originations, executives increased productivity by 13% in the number of operations…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] So our first question is from Daniel Vaz from Banco Safra.

Daniel Vaz

Analyst · Banco Safra

I just want to touch base on your midterm targets. I think the only thing a little bit more distance that we see is the top 1 market share for commercial loans and consumer loans, and we see some stable market shares like in the past few months when we look at the big tables. Just wondering, you're a bank that focused a lot on profitability and focus on maintaining the discipline of the underwriting process. Trying to understand how are you going to tackle this top 1 commercial loans and consumer loans going forward, especially considering that the Chilean market is probably going to a better outlook for commercial loans. We see a little bit more appetite for consumer as well. So how exactly you're going to tackle this first position on both market shares? Like is going to the same clients or going to a more attractive position versus your competitors to still clients or any other things that you would highlight?

Pablo Ricci

Management

Daniel, thanks for the question. Maybe Rodrigo will start on the first part there.

Rodrigo Aravena

Management

Perfect. Well, thank you very much for the question. Today, we have a more positive view of the Chilean economy in the future. Even though the economic growth expected for this year, which is around 2.3%, 2.5% and probably in the next year, the economic growth will be similar. It's very important to pay attention to the composition of the growth because, for example, in the last year, when the economy grew by 2.6%, we have to remember that the key driver were exports, which are not very relevant as a driver for loan growth, for example, right? More recently, we have seen some positive signs for investment including the acceleration for capital good imports and also the pipeline of expected projects for the next 5 years is also improving a lot, especially in the last quarter. In terms of consumption, we see that the lower trend for inflation is also a positive news for the perspective for consumption as well. So at the end of the day, in our baseline scenario, we're going to have a more dynamic domestic demand, especially on the investment side which will be a positive driver for loan growth in the future. Even though we are not expecting an important acceleration in part of investment because we have to remember that in Chile, between 50% and 55% of investment is related with construction. That part of investment will likely recover not in the short term, but the 45% remaining of investment, which is related with machinery and equipment today is getting better. So that's why even though we are not expecting important changes in the GDP forecast for the next year, we are expecting a more -- a different composition of growth with a more dynamism in domestic demand, which is a good news for loan growth in the future. Also, we have to pay attention to the evolution and the final results of elections in Chile. We're going to have election from the President for the Senate for the lower house as well. So at the end of the day, there are important factors that could accelerate or not the economic growth in the future. But I think that so far, the most important aspect to keep in mind is the potential recovery in domestic demand.

Pablo Ricci

Management

So yes, in terms of our midterm targets, these are midterm targets that go beyond not only 2026, but it's a midterm aspiration. And those aspirations, as shown on the slide, we want to be #1 in terms of total commercial loans and consumer loans. So our growth strategy is focused on 3 key ideas. So the first, and we'll go into each one of these a little bit, is digital transformation as a growth engine for the bank. Also as a second area of focus is focus on the high potential segments, notwithstanding all the entire commercial loan book is interesting for us, but it's been more challenging in this environment. And third is operational productivity. So in the digital transformation area, what we've been focusing is leveraging technology to scale the efficiency, enhance customer experience and really drive new growth opportunities across the bank in all the segments. So in that regard, what we're seeing is an increase on digital onboarding. Most of transactions are being done online, and we're expanding our digital capabilities in order to capture this new growth through different channels of the bank in order to grow consumer loans in the middle- and upper-income segments. And we're also implementing the use of AI across the bank in order to improve the service, improve the understanding of our customers and risk management as well. So all of this is improving the customer experience and operational efficiencies and the ability to grow. And in the high potential customer segments or high potential segments, what we're looking to do is to grow and create a larger value creation. And in that area where we're focused on in commercial loans, especially as SMEs, where we see potential to continue growing in the medium term. We've seen good levels…

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Tito Labarta from Goldman Sachs.

Daer Labarta

Analyst · Goldman Sachs

Just with the upcoming presidential elections, just kind of curious sort of where you think things stand from here? And depending on which candidates when -- how do you see that potentially impacting the macro-outlook for next year and then also trickling down to the bank's profitability?

Rodrigo Aravena

Management

Thank you for the question. I'm Rodrigo Aravena. I think that it's very important to be aware that in Chile, we have a political system, which is based on important counterweight between the central government, the Congress, the system, et cetera. So that's why it's not only a matter of who's going to be the next in Chile. We have also take into consideration the future composition of the Congress as well. According to the surveys, there's going to be a runoff in December, but we're going to have the final results of the Congress in November in the next week. Even though there is uncertainty about the final composition of the Congress and also in terms of who's going to win the election. I think that it's worth mentioning that today, which is an important difference compared to the election that we had 4 years ago, that there are some consensus in Chile between different candidates and different political factors as well. In terms of put on the table, I would say, 3 important aspects in the policy agenda. First of all, there is a consensus in Chile in terms of the need to improve the long-term sources of economic growth. When we analyze all the different proposals, they are aware about the importance to promote more economic growth mainly investment, especially considering that the external environment will be a bit more challenging in the future. So we don't have important differences in terms of the diagnosis of the importance of economic growth. Also, today, there are not important proposals with higher tax rates. In fact, there are some proposals that are based on lower corporate tax rate, for example, which is a good news as well for the future. And also, we also have an important consensus in terms of the importance to improve, for example, the licenses and permit system that we have in Chile, which is an important factor to promote investment in the future. So all in all, today, I, which is the main difference compared to the elections that we had 4 years ago, there are not important differences in terms of proposals for economic growth for taxes, et cetera. So when we consider this scenario and also the recent improvement in some leading indicators, I think that we have good reason to expect a more dynamism in domestic demand in the future, especially in investment and consumption, even though we have uncertainty for the final result of the presidential elections.

Pablo Ricci

Management

And in terms of the bank, the most important result of this is more demand and activity in Chile, which should drive loan growth in all the segments. So in commercial loans, large corporates and multinationals concessions and SMEs, consumer loans, et cetera. So what we've seen is a period of low growth, high interest rates. And now we're moving into a more attractive period with better business confidence, hopefully, better consumer confidence, and that should lead to stronger loan growth, and we have the capital in order to grow. So we don't need more capital. So that means additional points in terms of the bottom line for ROE.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Neha Agarwala from HSBC.

Neha Agarwala

Analyst · HSBC

Congratulations on the results. Just a quick one on the outlook for 2026. What kind of pickup should we -- can we expect in the coming quarters in terms of loan growth? And what would be the drivers for earnings for 2026, given that there should be some pressure on the NIMs with easing inflation?

Pablo Ricci

Management

Neha, I think in 2026, well, today, we don't have guidance yet because it's -- we're working on the budget, and it's something that's being discussed internally in the bank. But what we can say is similar to what we've said in the other questions is what we're foreseeing is a better overall aspect of Chile in the next years. And this should allow us to have in the banking industry to have better results in terms of loan growth, the main area, the main driver for growth for us in the following year. The inflation level, what we expect is to return to levels closer to 3%, somewhere similar in terms of the overnight rate, not too much lower. We're already close to the long-term levels there. So in order to really generate a stronger bottom line over the next years, we should see loan growth is the main driver. So what we have and what's very positive for Banco de Chile is that we have an attractive level of CET1 total base ratio, and this is allowing us to grow when the opportunities arise. And hopefully, that's sooner than later.

Rodrigo Aravena

Management

And also Neha, this is Rodrigo Gara. Important to mention as well that we are not expecting important changes in interest rate for the next year. Today, it's likely that the Central Bank will reduce interest rate by 25 basis points the next meeting or probably in the first quarter of the next year. Today, the annual inflation is at 3.4%. So for the next year, it's reasonable to expect a convergence towards the target, which is 3%. So I mean we are not expecting important adjustment in the key factors behind the ROE and NIM as well since we are not seeing important room for adjustment in both interest rate and inflation as well.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is from Andres Soto from Santander.

Andres Soto

Analyst · Santander

My first question is for your loan growth next year, which I will assume you are expecting an acceleration versus 2025. Which segments are you expecting to see faster growth? Is going to be commercial lending in your comments about the third quarter results. You mentioned some market share losses in consumer as other players are focusing in the lower segments of the population. So I would like to understand what is missing for you guys to take a more optimistic view on consumer lending. You have mentioned in this call, this is a segment that is still depressed compared to the pre-pandemic levels. So what is missing for you to see faster growth in the consumer? And overall, what is going to be the driver in 2026 for the total loan growth?

Pablo Ricci

Management

Well, in terms of loan growth, what we're seeing the main driver, as you know, commercial loans is the largest mix of the portfolio. So -- and what's been most impacted over the last 5, 6 years has been commercial loans as importance in terms of volumes. So in terms of volumes, we should see a recovery in terms of commercial loans. Within that, we're expecting with better business confidence with more -- less uncertainty, we should see a return of larger corporate demand in Chile. SMEs as well should have a very good activity in this environment with a better global activity in GDP, unemployment, they're much more cyclical, as I mentioned. And in consumer loans, we should see slowly as we should continue to see slowly that the consumer loans will continue to improve in line with unemployment rates. For what's happened in the consumer loan segment is that some players in Chile have implemented or have focused on the lower income segments where we're not active today, penetrating that market more than us. Probably we have a customer base that's a higher net worth customer base. as well that it's not demanding as much loans. But we continue to grow well. So in a new environment next year with better business and consumer confidence, we should see more attractive loan growth in this segment, and we're implementing different digital initiatives to understand the customers in order to offer them products to the channels that they desire with business intelligence, much more focused on each customer rather than global plans that are focused over the entire segment. So we're trying to personalize much more of the information that's going to these customers. Next year should be a more positive year overall.

Andres Soto

Analyst · Santander

My next question is regarding capital. Your core equity Tier 1 is 400 basis points above all your peers, basically. What level do you guys feel necessary for the growth that you see ahead? And how you imagine the capital normalization of Banco de Chile taking place? How long is going to take place for you to get to a level you see as the adequate level for capital?

Daniel Ignacio Galarce Toro

Analyst · Santander

Andres, this is Daniel Galarce. From the capital point of view, as we have said, of course, we have today important buffers and favorable gaps over the regulatory limits. Basically, everything depends on how the portfolio will normalize in terms of loan growth in the future. And basically, in which products we will increase and we will expand our portfolio in the future as well. As Pablo said, we are expecting to grow more in commercial and consumer loans. We want to be leaders in those lending products and those products are more intensive in terms of use of capital, of course. So everything depends on the evolution of loan growth in the future. So probably we will have a normalization in terms of capital buffers probably over the midterm, 3 years or something like that, depending on the economic activity in the country.

Andres Soto

Analyst · Santander

And which level will be that?

Daniel Ignacio Galarce Toro

Analyst · Santander

Well, we don't have any specific target, but in the long run, we will -- we need and our aim is to be always at least 1.5%, 2%, something like that in the range of 1% to 2% above regulatory limits.

Operator

Operator

We would like to thank everyone for the questions and the participation. I will now hand it back to the Banco de Chile team for the closing remarks.

Pablo Ricci

Management

Thanks for listening, and we look forward to speaking with you for our full-year results next year.

Operator

Operator

That concludes the call for today. Thank you and have a nice day.