Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.
Management
Okay. Well, let's start with what we feel very strong about, that's the Oilseeds piece of our business. And so, the forecast for the year that you would imply from the commentary we've given would lead you to somewhere between $750 million and $800 million. So, it will, all in all, likely would be a record result in crush, which is what we've been focused on. On the Grains side of the equation, it is correct that the second quarter should've been the peak in South America, and in many ways, it was. The basis gains that you would've normally assumed would be embedded in the performance were offset for the reasons that I just mentioned. So, it's really about looking forward now. And you can certainly paint a picture, whereby if things get back to normal in Brazil, given our size of activity in Brazil, market shares, and also given the significantly undersold farmer for next year's crop, that the second half could be better than what we are indicating here. But we don't know how the freight situation is going to turn out. And, therefore, we're being a bit cautious, I suppose, is the right way to put it. On the Grains side in the U.S., we have exposure primarily to the export points. Our business in the Center Gulf is really from St. Louis in south and in New Orleans. And on the West Coast, it's the elevator in Longview. We do not have, as some of our competitors have, large storage facilities in the interior, particularly in the Wheat Belt, where you can earn large big carries. That is not how Bunge is set up. So, we are very dependent upon the export margin going through those facilities in either New Orleans or on the West Coast. At the moment, there is no definition in those markets. It is entirely dependent upon trade policy and whether or not China returns to the U.S. market. If things remain as they are now, which is what we are assuming in our forecast, it's going to be a skinny export season out of the U.S., both off the West Coast and in New Orleans, and we will not have a great fourth quarter there. We could end up having it in South America instead. But we won't have the large carry income to compensate for that as others perhaps do. So, that's why we're a bit hesitant in putting too much optimism into the second half in Grain. We are very optimistic. We are very confident in Oilseeds. That is really what's driving this year's result. It's where we are focused. It's where we've locked up margins. We've been very prudent. We knew we had to deliver and we will. On the Grains side of things, we will have to see how it all turns out. There are just too many uncertainties at the moment. But, obviously, we're all hoping for something that's better than that we're guiding.