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Bunge Global S.A. (BG)

Q3 2018 Earnings Call· Wed, Oct 31, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Bunge Limited's Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Release and Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mark Haden, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Mark Haden - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Great. Thank you, operator, and thank you everyone for joining us this morning. Before we get started, I want to inform you that we have prepared a slide presentation to accompany our discussion. It can be found in the Investors section of our website at bunge.com under Investor Presentations. Reconciliations of non-GAAP measures disclosed verbally on this conference call to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure are posted on our website in the Investors section. I'd like to direct you to slide 2, and remind you that today's presentation includes forward-looking statements that reflect Bunge's current views with respect to future events, financial performance, and industry conditions. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Bunge has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in this presentation, and encourages you to review these factors. Participating on the call this morning are Soren Schroder, Chief Executive Officer; and Thom Boehlert, Chief Financial Officer. I'll now turn the call over to Soren.

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Thank you, Mark. Bunge delivered a strong quarter which puts us on track for a very good year and growth beyond. Agribusiness results were led by soy crush, which executed margins in the $50 per ton range, and new mark-to-market gains were approximately $155 million. Origination in Brazil picked up with the weakening of the real and the quarter leading to higher than expected earnings in grains. Our team navigated really well through a complicated market environment and is making sure we monetize the physical position in soybeans we built during the second quarter. Crushing results should remain favorable for the balance of the year and into 2019. However, low commodity prices and the stronger Brazilian real, along with the unsettled Brazilian freight situation is adding uncertainty to origination volume. That said, we remain optimistic that we will finish the year in the upper half of the $800 million to $1 billion outlook range previously established. Agribusiness returns are expected to be well above cost of capital led by soy crushing. Our milling results were strong and we're on track to finish the year with a significant improvement over last year. While South American wheat supplies are rebuilding, early Indications are that quality of this year Brazilian wheat crop is poor, which will lead to increased imports and sets us up for another good year in 2019. Milling returns will also be well above cost of capital. Since the beginning of the year, our retail packaged oil business in Brazil and refining operations in the U.S. have struggled due to an oversupply of oil resulting from the favorable crushing environment. This trend is now reversing as oil supplies are tightening, giving us increased confidence in a strong finish to the year. We are very pleased with the integration and underlying…

Thomas Michael Boehlert - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Thank you, Soren, and good morning, everybody. Let's turn to the earnings highlights on slide 4. Reported third quarter earnings per share from continuing operations were $2.39 compared to earnings per share of $0.59 in the third quarter of 2017. Adjusted earnings per share were $2.52 in the third quarter versus $0.75 in the prior year. Pre-tax notable charges totaled $38 million in the quarter, primarily related to the Global Competitiveness Program, the early extinguishment of debt, and the disposition of an equity investment. Pre-tax results also included the positive impact of approximately $155 million of new mark-to-market gains on our forward soy crush commitments, reflecting lower soy crush margins in some regions going forward. Total segment EBIT in the quarter was $535 million versus $175 million in the prior quarter. On an adjusted basis, segment EBIT was $573 million. Excluding the new mark-to-market impact on soy crush commitments, adjusted EBIT would have been $418 million. Agribusiness adjusted results increased significantly in the third quarter with adjusted EBIT of $485 million compared to $127 million in the third quarter of 2017, with improvements both in Oilseeds and Grains. In Oilseeds, soy crush margins improved in all regions compared to last year, driven by the combination of strong soymeal demand, lower crush rates in Argentina, due to the drought, lower U.S. soybean prices as Chinese tariffs came into effect and the deliberate actions we took in the second quarter to build soybean inventory in Brazil to secure attractive margins for our Brazilian and Chinese crushing operations. Strong soy crush margins moderated during the quarter in some regions, resulting in positive new mark-to-market of approximately $155 million at the end of the third quarter related to crush capacity commitments beyond the third quarter. This amount will reverse in future periods negatively impacting…

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

We are on track for a very good year, and 2019 looks promising with good fundamentals in soy and soft seed crush, strong demand in growth and trade, a big step up from Bunge Loders Croklaan, as well as solid performance in milling. Over the last year, we have exited several small loss-making businesses; this will improve profitability and allow us to focus on our core activities that includes delivering the remaining parts of the Global Competitiveness Program and looking for more ways to improve our competitive position. Global trade will remain highly influenced by politics, but we're in a good position to navigate a dynamic environment. Bunge is the leader in crush and B2B oils, a regional Americas leader in milling and a major player in global agricultural trade and distribution. We have invested behind our strategy in crush, oils and milling and we have a well-balanced footprint to source global trade. Our industry has become more competitive, which means we have to find new sources of efficiency and growth. We have embraced that challenge, and feel we are well on our way with a Global Competitiveness Program as well as building new capabilities around our crush, oils, milling and distribution businesses, which will provide earnings growth into the future. We've always been open to ways to unlock value for our shareholders and customers, and we are therefore pleased to welcome three new directors to the Bunge Board as announced this morning. Each of them has extensive experience relevant to our business which can help us navigate successfully through the changing environment and ensure we maintain our leadership position. Also as announced, a special committee, the board has been formed which will review current programs and approaches, strategic alternatives and help us make the most of this strong platform we built over the years. As we have celebrated our 200th anniversary this year, it's been wonderful to see and feel the commitment and pride of our global colleagues. Their support of the important changes we are making and their excitement of what lies ahead is impressive and it is much appreciated. With that, we will turn the call over to the operator and to your questions.

Operator

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. And our first question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead with your question. Vincent Stephen Andrews - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Thank you, and good morning, everyone.

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Good morning, Vince. Vincent Stephen Andrews - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Maybe you could just help us on the Agribusiness piece, just sort of what's changed in the guidance. Gotten a little confusion over how much you've increased it by or if it's been decreased, so if you could clarify that in Agribusiness. And just sort of what you're seeing in the crush margins in different parts of your business, what's getting better, what's getting worse? Thank you.

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Okay. Well, essentially the range in Agribusiness is unchanged. We're talking about the upper half of the $800 million to $1 billion range. And it should be supported by a strong fourth quarter where we have most of our margins locked in. The one thing that is a little bit uncertain is the extent to which grain origination will be a contributor in the fourth quarter. We have very little dialed in for that at this moment, reflecting the fact that in the U.S., farmers are very reluctant sellers of both soybeans and corn. And in Brazil with a stronger real and the lower futures prices, very little new crop origination is actually being transacted as we speak. So, relatively modest expectations for grain origination going forward, that could be an upside. A good quarter in crush where we have most of the margins locked up, and that's really – that's really it. So we're not really changing our guidance to any extent here. It's going to be a great year in Agribusiness. It was obviously a very good quarter and we think we can – we can continue that into next year as well. Vincent Stephen Andrews - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Okay. That's helpful. If I could ask on the interest expense, I guess a couple things about it. One, I was just sort of surprised that it could come up so much in such a short period of time versus your prior expectations, so just help us understand what changed? And then also should we be thinking about this interest expense as sort of associated with Agribusiness and that is it – is it a function of the soy inventory you're holding as part of the hedge program or is it just – or is it something else?

Thomas Michael Boehlert - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Good morning. Yeah. The change in interest is primarily driven by inventories, and particularly the agri part of inventories. There's also a small piece which relates to higher interest rates in a number of jurisdictions where we fund our balance sheet locally. But the primary one is inventories. Inventories were higher than we had anticipated at the end of the quarter and during the quarter. Soren mentioned looking forward, origination is a reasonable outlook but during the third quarter there were opportunities to build inventories with a devaluation in Brazil, which caused farmers selling particularly new crop corn. And in the Northern Hemisphere, we did build inventories particularly in soft seeds as we get ready to – for our campaign crushing soft seeds in Europe as well as some inventory build in North America given the economics of carries and potential export. So, it is a – I'd say it's a temporary situation. We expect inventory to come down by $1 billion or more by the end of the year. Vincent Stephen Andrews - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Right.

Thomas Michael Boehlert - Bunge Ltd.

Management

And as we head into next year, we would expect our working capital levels to be lower on average than they have been this year. It's just been – with the dynamics in the market, there have been opportunities to carry inventory this year. So, I would say we'll certainly be below $300 million going forward on interest expense and we'll look to start bringing that down by the end of this year and into next year. Vincent Stephen Andrews - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Great.

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Yeah. I think just to follow-up on that, the fact that our footprint is such that we have significant crush operations in Brazil and in China led to this significant and somewhat unusual build-up of big soybean inventories in Brazil at the end of this second quarter. That was one of the big drivers of the Q2, and that is, I will say, unlikely to repeat itself. It's turned out to be the right thing, but as Thom said, it is not structural. Vincent Stephen Andrews - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Okay. Thank you very much. That was very helpful.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Ann Duignan from JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question.

Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question

Hi. Good morning.

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Good morning, Ann.

Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question

Actually Soren, just building on that comment exactly. If the tariffs remain in place, why wouldn't we just see a repeat of this year again in 2019? If you could just walk us through a scenario where the tariffs remain in place through the spring of next year and the impact that would have on your business in 2019.

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Well, I mean, it is true that if there is no normalization of trade relations, chances are that we would – we would probably build up bean inventory again in Brazil. But the extent to which we would be able to do it is totally dependent upon the combination of futures, prices, basis and foreign exchange when we get there. This year, we had an opportunity to get ahead of this in a significant way and we accumulated during the second quarter a lot more grain because the farmers were willing sellers than we – than we normally would have been able to. So it all depends on how it flows. But it is true that if there is no resolution, you know we will be in a situation where a lot more of our business will be directed out of South America, and we will have to find ways in which we can protect our crush. At the moment, crush margins for new crop in Brazil are still reasonable. So we would initially accumulate beans for crush. But as we've also said with a stronger real that we have at the moment, there is very little new selling going on. So as a matter of tendency you are right, but I don't expect it'll be anywhere near the level of inventory that we – we carry this year. And I would say that the way prices are looking, and the outlook for prices given the significant build-up of inventory that we're expecting in – in the Northern Hemisphere, the prices at which we would be accumulating inventory would be significantly below this past year's by probably I don't know 10%, 15% maybe 20%. So the combination of that I think should still get us in the position where the amount of inventory working capital that we would use next year, even if a trade resolution is not found will be lower than it has been.

Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question

Yeah, that's a fair point Soren that prices are much lower. And then as a follow on to that, could you just talk about the fundamentals in China, given all the noise we've heard over there about lowering protein mix and Asian flu and all et cetera, et cetera? Like what are your expectations for the demand in China – for crush margins in China? Thank you.

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Crush margins are still reasonable above cost at least based on Brazilian soybeans. Demand I think is in a state of transition, so to speak. I think if you look at next year or this coming crop year, we would expect soybean meal demand in China to set back a bit. How much is impossible to say at this point. The Chinese authorities have issued a new low or minimum requirement for soybean meal inclusion, but that doesn't mean you can't use more. So, at the end of the day, it will probably still be prices that dictate how feed formulation is made, and we expect demand to maintain itself. But somehow, we certainly expect that the growth we've seen in the last couple of years and underlying soybean meal demand and off-take in China will be parsed for at least a season, and then we'll see beyond that. So, our expectation of imports into China would actually be a small reduction from last year. And based on that it appears that they can – they can wiggle through into the new crop supplies in Brazil and with a large crop in both Argentina and Brazil, can probably supply themselves fully without having to return to the U.S. in case there is no resolution to the trade situation.

Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question

And a quick follow-up on that Soren, because all that leads to then what gets planted in the U.S. next spring, could you just quickly give us your thoughts on that and I'll leave it there? Thank you.

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Yeah. I think it's a very wide range at the moment, but it's obviously a lot less soybeans and more corn, maybe a small loss of total base between the two. But given current prices, you would expect a fairly significant shift out of corn into beans. We are building significant soybean inventories in the U.S. this crop year that seems almost unavoidable even if a trade resolution was had soon, we would still have a significant build-up in soybean ending stocks. So prices would suggest a significant shift to corn, whether that's 5 million or 10 million acres, I don't know. But it's probably a shift of some kind of historic magnitude that we'll be seeing when we get there. But there's a long time until March.

Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question

Okay. I appreciate the color. I'll get back in line in the interest of time. Thank you.

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Okay..

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead with your question. Adam Samuelson - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC: Yes. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I guess I wanted to start a little bit high level Soren, thinking about the outlook for crush as we move into 2019, maybe some color by geography. And we had a very robust kind of peak as you got into the spring and summer this year and as we think about lapping that, is it possible for the Oilseeds line to grow profit wise year-on-year in 2019 given the state of the world today, and if so, what would be the drivers?

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Yeah. I mean, we do expect a good crushing environment also next year but the composition will probably be a little bit different and the timing will be also, in the case of soy, we still have very, very, very good margins by historical standards at least through the first quarter and probably two quarters of next year in the case of U.S. and Europe, it is possible to secure some of that. And we're doing that to the extent that we can and the market gives us liquidity. Then the second half of the year is a question mark with assuming a normalization of crops in South America. But overall, we expect a favorable soy crushing environment. U.S. should remain strong, strong domestic off-take of soybean meal; the animals are there, so demand should be solid. The second half of the year is where the question mark comes. But we have pretty good visibility until the middle of next year in soy. Overall, I'd say, we should expect probably a bit of a setback in gross margins in soy across all the geographies. But we do expect that we will have an opposite phenomenon in soft seeds. We've got very good crushing margins in the sun seeds at the moment in pretty much all of Europe. And in the Black Sea, demand for soft oils and biodiesel in Europe is on the up, and we expect that the industry will have to run at fairly high rates of utilization to supply oil for that. So we have a positive view on soft seed crushing margins next year that should offset any decline in soy. So on balance, I think we look at next year as being another good year in oil seeds and in crushing. And we'll be able to secure some of that and we're doing what we can to lock up margins into the first half of next year. Adam Samuelson - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC: Okay. And that's helpful color. And then a question, maybe it's for Thom, just as we think about where leverage will shake out by the end of the fourth quarter if you get the inventory reduction as you expect and the trailing 12-month EBITDA improves based on your guidance. Can you help us think about kind of the appetite for repurchases and buybacks as we move into next year, and just what would be the kind of obstacles to doing that in a bigger size given where the stock price is?

Thomas Michael Boehlert - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Sure. We do expect debt to come down by the end of the year, just following the inventory reductions. Our debt is roughly equal to our working capital, and so it moves around consistent with that. Looking forward, we, I think our number one priority is to ensure that we have a strong BBB credit rating. And so we will certainly work through the end of the year and make sure that we secure that headed – headed into next year with – supported by both the results from this year and a strong outlook going into next year. And then in terms of capital, we've been – we've been very disciplined in terms of M&A, in terms of CapEx, and obviously the Competitiveness Program, its generating cash flow and I look at that as- as capital as well to some extent. So we've been paring back our capital investment other than the Loders acquisition obviously that we funded in the first quarter to put ourselves in a position where we can consider the best opportunities to deploy capital once we've secured our rating. So heading into next year, I think our – I think our M&A discipline will remain in place. You know we will only – we only look at things that are very, very strategic for us and we do have a bias and a priority to begin our buyback program again. And so we would look to consider doing that as soon as we get through the end of the year and are able to kind of solidify our credit ratings. But it is at the top of our list from a capital allocation perspective. Adam Samuelson - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC: Great. I appreciate the color. I'll pass it on. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Heather Jones with Vertical Group. Please go ahead with your question.

Heather Jones - The Vertical Trading Group LLC

Analyst · Vertical Group. Please go ahead with your question

Good morning, and thank you.

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Good morning, Heather.

Heather Jones - The Vertical Trading Group LLC

Analyst · Vertical Group. Please go ahead with your question

I have a quick clarification on – first on 2018. So you mentioned that your Agribusiness estimate – guidance hadn't changed but if we take the different changes in F&I and Sugar and Fertilizer, and just using the midpoint of those changes, it implies that Agribusiness is down, call it, $35 million to $45 million as far as your guidance. And you mentioned the uncertainty related to Q4 in Grains, but it seems like Q3 came in meaningfully better than expected. So, is – am I, one, doing my math wrong as far as the implications for your full year Agribusiness guide and if I'm not wrong, what drove that?

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Well, I would say the range is pretty wide at this point for Q4 in Agribusiness. And if you take the midpoint on the ranges, you end up more or less what you said. I think overall, we don't really feel that Agribusiness is significantly different than it was. If anything maybe a slight – a slight reduction in how soy will come in for the year simply because we crushed a little bit less in the third quarter, we crushed about 500,000 tons less than we expected for good commercial reasons, whether we can catch up on that in the fourth quarter remains to be seen. So maybe a slight off in soy, but as we also said, the amount of grain profit we have dialed in for the fourth quarter is very modest and it can change very, very quickly. At this point, October has been – October has been slim pickings, so to speak, in North America as well as Brazil but in Brazil this can change literally overnight. So I hesitate to say that we are going down, although the ranges might suggest it. I would rather say that the range is – is wide and that it can quickly turn positive if we have a – if we have a grain quarter in the fourth quarter as we had it in Q3, we will come out better for sure. And you know most of the activity in the third quarter, and Grain came within a two week period. So it can just change very quickly. And so hesitant to perhaps nail a number rather paint a fairly wide range, but we do know and have good visibility on of course is our crushing operations as we – as we described it. And so Oilseeds will be very solid for the year, above $700 million, then the question really is grain. So I know it doesn't answer your question perfectly, but that's – that's how we look at it. It's going to be a great year, it's going to be a good strong quarter in Agribusiness, just how good really is a function of the pace of grain origination. And I think at this point, it's really more about Brazil than it is about North America. Farmers in North America seem to be very stubborn holders of their record crop. And in Brazil, the farmer is fairly undersold relative to historicals. So you know any – any break in the currency or any movement up in futures, I think will be met with – with selling. So I mean that's really – that's where we are.

Heather Jones - The Vertical Trading Group LLC

Analyst · Vertical Group. Please go ahead with your question

Okay. And a clarification on your comment on China as soybean meal demand, did you – were you implying or saying that there is going to be a slowdown in their soybean demand growth or you actually expect their soybean meal demand to be down in 2019 versus 2018?

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

I think, soybean imports are likely to be down in the coming crop cycle. Whether or not soybean meal demand is down, I think it's too early to tell. I don't think we expect it to grow much. They have reserve stocks they can release; they will drawdown inventories for sure. So I think, we are pretty confident that the soybean import number will be lower. Whether that translates into an absolute reduction in soybean meal usage, I think it's too early to tell. But I – but you can tell from all the various sources of import whether it is a new regulation, a minimum inclusion of soybean meal to – there's chatter in the industry that there is a – there is an overall effort in trying to reduce the dependency on soybean meal, although of course, China will still remain a significant importer of protein, is 90 million tons. So, you can't go away with it in any way it's really under margin. But I think it wouldn't surprise me if implied soybean meal use this coming year in China, if the trade war or the trade conflict isn't resolved will be flat to down. It wouldn't surprise me. I'm pretty sure about soybean imports, meal stay tuned.

Heather Jones - The Vertical Trading Group LLC

Analyst · Vertical Group. Please go ahead with your question

And when I'm thinking – and when we're thinking about soy crush for 2019, do you expect the meal oil contribution to stay roughly equal to in 2018, or could we see the contribution for the meal side come down a little bit but oil go up because of higher mandates around the world including in Brazil? How are you guys thinking about that?

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Yeah. As a matter of tendency, I think you're right. Once we get let's say through the first quarter, I mean we still expect that between now and the end of the first quarter there will be – there will be quite some tightness developing in soybean meal. It's coming a little later than we had anticipated it, but there still needs to be some rationing before we enter the South American new crop supplies in style. Looking beyond that, so maybe let's say the second half of 2019, the tendency is probably for stronger relative oil demand which is supportive of soft seed crush, driven by fairly sizable increases in mandates both in Southeast Asia and palm. In Brazil, there was another – there was an announcement out I think yesterday or the day before of a fairly sizable increase in inclusion in biodiesel through 2023 step up. So more of the same that we've seen, I think even in the U.S. and certainly in Europe. So the tendency would be second half of the year more towards oil than to protein.

Heather Jones - The Vertical Trading Group LLC

Analyst · Vertical Group. Please go ahead with your question

Okay. Perfect. Thank you so much.

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

All right.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from David Driscoll with Citi. Please go ahead with your question.

David Driscoll - Citi Research

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead with your question

Thank you, and good morning.

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Hey, David.

Thomas Michael Boehlert - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Good morning, David.

David Driscoll - Citi Research

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead with your question

Just to make sure, guys, in fourth quarter it's a $50 million reversal in the mark-to-market gains that we have, like there's a lot of different pieces of this, but it all netted to $50 million and that comes out in Q4, is that right?

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Yeah. That's right. It will be a negative impact on Q4.

David Driscoll - Citi Research

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead with your question

Okay. And maybe, Soren, from my point of view, I'm just kind of doing the same math Heather was doing, and I know we're all trying to be so precise here and this Agribusiness business segment is incredibly volatile, but it seemed like that was almost what you're trying to call out, when I read the EBIT at $1.2 billion in today's press release, and last press release it was $1.3 billion, $35 million on interest expense. I mean, pretty simple math, $135 million negative change to the guidance at the EBT level. So it looks like there is something in there from Agribusiness. But I think what you're trying to tell us qualitatively is, be careful getting too specific on the numbers because Agribusiness can move around a lot, and then you guys are trying to call out this $50 million reversal of the gain. Would you agree with my summation?

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Yeah, I think what I'm trying to say is that even though we're through the first quarter of – first month through the last quarter things can change very quickly, particularly in grain origination which is where we have, we have the upside in my opinion. Crush both in soft seeds and in soy is more or less locked up for the year. We have good visibility to that, and it can change very quickly. Dynamics in our markets as you know are significant. And so you could certainly paint the range as being higher than what I suggested. I'm just saying don't try to be too specific, this early, things can change very quickly. We've got very little, very little included from grain origination in the guidance that we've given. So that's the upside really.

David Driscoll - Citi Research

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead with your question

Okay. And then on the – on China-U.S. trade, you answered a bit about this, but I'm still slightly confused.

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Okay.

David Driscoll - Citi Research

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead with your question

If we get a resolution, and let's say it's going to affect the second half of 2019, just to pick something out there, I don't – obviously it's a little arbitrary what I just said, but bottom line is a resolution of U.S.-China trade, is this positive for Bunge or is this a negative for Bunge?

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

I would – I think it is neutral. I wouldn't call it either way because it depends so much on exactly when it happens and under what circumstances it happens. You know, for example, has the Brazilian farmer sold a lot of beans before it happens or has the Chinese crusher bought a lot of beans before the Brazilian farmer sells and then it happens. It is – there are so many combinations of how this could turn out that it's impossible to put a – put an absolute direction on it. I think what I – what I feel very comfortable saying is that we are in a damn good place – place to – to react to and to profit from either event. We have a very strong, as you know, very strong position in Brazil that played out well for us this year. We have a very strong position in crush in North America and Europe that has also played out. I think in either situation, we will be able to navigate, we will be able to navigate well, but I hesitate to call it positive or negative this far in advance. You know I think we played it well this year, that came through in the third quarter, believe it will come through in the fourth quarter as well. But exactly how this plays out in 2019, I don't want to try and handicap it for – from an earnings perspective. 2019 should be a good year under – under any – any of these scenarios.

David Driscoll - Citi Research

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead with your question

And then, Soren, just one – one kind of comment pushback on my part. You gave like maybe a 2019 comment; maybe I'm even thinking longer term than that. You know back in 2014 you spent a lot of time at that Analyst Day talking about the supply curves and soy crush and capacity, oilseed crush capacity and the demand side...

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Yeah.

David Driscoll - Citi Research

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead with your question

...a deal with China would seemingly increase the demand backed again on a – on a trajectory of growth, and then this thing would kind of come to me back to that slide you put up back in 2014 about where those – the oilseed crush capacity and the crush demand. For me, longer term a deal U.S.-China is a positive. You're not saying that, so I'm curious, if you don't agree that that would be a positive to global oilseed crushing and utilization rates?

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

What I do agree on is that a trade resolution is positive for the industry. It is not healthy to have the type of environment we have now. You can see how it is skewing inventory build in certain regions and its putting pressure on prices and creating abnormal basis levels. It is sending strange signals to farmers to get out of seeds into corn. So we believe that for global growth and trade and underlying protein demand, a resolution is a good thing for everybody. And so, that's what we would like to see. Long, long-term that would be better for us than the current scenario, which I look at as being relatively short-term. I don't think this is a permanent situation, as long as it is; we'll have to navigate through it smartly as we have been. But in the long run, a resolution is good for the industry and it's good for Bunge. We know that the underlying demand for soybean meal outside of China continues to grow. It will also grow in China for sure, but let's look at the origins, U.S. and Argentina, Brazil also in Europe. Underlying soybean meal demand continues to grow at the rates that we have – that we have predicted, between 5 million and 6 million tons a year. And there is less new capacity coming on stream than that on a yearly basis. So our – call it thesis or investment criteria for soy crush are very much intact. I mean repeated it (50:52) also in 2016. That as we – as we get into the next couple of years, the total amount of origin crush capacity will start getting to that 85%, 90% level and that means that while crush margins might set back a little bit from…

David Driscoll - Citi Research

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead with your question

If it's okay, I'd like to speak one last one in on the – you threw in a comment, to be honest with you, at the very end of your script about a strategic, some strategic actions and of course, there's the new board directors but it was too brief for me. Is the company for sale or are you just looking to sell certain assets? This seems really important, Soren, could you just elaborate a little bit?

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Well, what's been announced is a strategic review committee of the board, which will consist of three existing board members, and the three new ones, which were announced this morning. The combination of those six people is a powerful combination of talent and experience. I mean, we – as I mentioned in my script, we welcome those three new board members. They all have fantastic insight in agribusiness and commodities in general. And combined with our existing board and the three that are now going on that committee, they will have a fresh look at everything we're doing from our ongoing programs to anything else. I don't want to handicap it. I know that there is no preconceived conclusion to this. There is a sense that we need to take a step back and look at everything we've done. I'm absolutely convinced we've done many things very right. Is it possible that we'll come up with some new ideas? For sure. It will be arrogant to assume that we thought of everything, and that's what this is about. But it's not about one specific action or direction and I don't really want to get ahead of the committee more than – more than that, but that's – that's where we're at.

David Driscoll - Citi Research

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead with your question

Thank you. I'll pass it along.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead with your question. Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC: Hi. Thanks. Soren, I guess mine is a follow up to David's question about the strategic review. Do these three new members come with any preconceived notions of their own as to what Bunge needs to do to create shareholder value? And maybe you can't really comment on that directly, but you've added them to the board, they were considered by many of us to be activist in nature. Can you talk a little bit about whether your discussions with them have been highly constructive leading up to this decision or not? And then secondly, how long will this review take, when do you expect to have a conclusion from it? Thanks.

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Well, that's a lot of questions. You know in terms of their individual perspectives, you have to ask them. From my perspective, there is no preconceived conclusion or idea. They believe, as we do, that they can add a lot to the deliberation of the board and to myself, and they are coming on top of some pretty significant port renewal that we've had going on for a while. Mark and Vinita have joined this year, also two people with deep industry experience in agribusiness and in food respectively. So, we think we're putting together a board here that really – that really gets the industry and with a good dynamic should be able to help us eventually explore areas that we haven't so far or accelerate what we're already doing. So beyond that, I don't really want to get ahead of it. There's also no deadline for a particular report out, this is going to be ongoing, I don't think it's unusual that a board decides to have a particular group of it focus on performance, strategic alternatives as I mentioned especially given the dynamic environment that we've been living through the last two or three years. It's coming on the back of a very good year, and outlook for more. But we all feel that we can do better and we know that shareholder expectations are higher than what we're delivering this year even, although it is a good year by historical standards. So we are all anxious to get in a better place. And we look forward to this cooperation. And I look at it as a very positive thing. Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC: Okay. Good. Can I ask a follow-up? Heading into next year, I guess people have been asking how to shape it. You've made some cautious comments about the gain part of the portfolio. Also in crush margins, I mean, most of us saw these crush margins in 2018 and now they are starting to fall again. I mean, can we – can we assume that crush margins can be somewhat similar in 2018 or should we follow these – the direction of the spot margins and assume that you'll have you know still a good year, but maybe not as great as it was in 2018?

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Yeah. I think in soy crush, you are – you're absolutely right. It's difficult to imagine that we will have the same level of peak margins as we had – as we had this year and on average we are expecting them to be slightly lower between all the different geographies in which we operate. But I also think that we have some upside in our soft seed crush related to the strong demand for oil that I think we'll feel particularly in the second half of 2019. So overall, this should be a very good Oilseed year again next year. Some of the margins in soy are hedgeable and we're doing what we can to secure those. Some of them are not. But you know for a good part of our footprint, we – we can – we can secure some of this upfront. So, it's going to be a good year in crush next year, but a different mix – different mix between soy and soft seeds, but overall a good year. Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC: Okay. And then – and then, moving into Edible Oils, I guess the thesis here is that the excess supplies in the market, particularly in Brazil are going to work through and...

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Yes. Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC: ...that will help your pricing for Edible Oils. And then for Loders...

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Yeah. Typically.... Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC: ...yeah. Go ahead.

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

No. No. You go ahead. Sorry I cut you off. Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC: Oh. I get to go. Okay. For Loders, you have some supply contracts that are working through and those – when those expire, you'll have better costs into 2019 for Loders?

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Yeah. So, the last one first, is very – is kind of straightforward. We mark-to-market our purchases of palm. Basically our inventory and our pipeline gets mark-to-market and prices have come down over the last 60 to 90 days but we don't mark-to-market the sales contracts that we have for finished product. So it means, as we process this palm oil, it will be at higher margins than were initially calculated. So I hope that's clear. So we mark-to-market one side but not the other. That's the accounting convention for that. Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC: Like...

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

And on the... Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC: Like...

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Yeah. Go ahead. Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC: Go ahead. All right. I'll go ahead. I mean, it does beg the question though, I mean, does Loders just operate with this mismatch just going forward...

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Yeah. Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC: ...between cost and price and how volatile it can be.

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Yeah. I mean, that's – well, Thom you can talk to the accounting standards conventions on this but that's how they operate and have operated. Thom?

Thomas Michael Boehlert - Bunge Ltd.

Management

That's right. That's how they operate and have operated. We are exploring other potential ways to handle it going forward. But for the moment, we'll continue to have that little mismatch.

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Yeah. I mean, there's been a fairly significant move in palm oil prices over the last quarter. So this is probably as big as it gets I would think. And of course, it can quickly go the other way too. And as we have – as we've been I think fairly transparent about in mark-to-market on our soy crush, this is a similar type of thing that we just have to call out whenever it happens. And it is the reason why Loders in the third quarter didn't really contribute what we had expected. But it's completely understandable and it will flow into the P&Ls now going forward. But it's a mismatch in timing, so to speak, on how you mark the different pieces of the business. And on the first question, you asked about the tightening oil supply in South America. Yeah, I mean, there's typically a very strong correlation between retail long (1:00:40) margins under a tight oil scenario and one where you have access. As we've been through a fairly sort of loose oil stock situation most of the year really starting out this year and it is now beginning to change and judging by historicals that will carry through probably into the first quarter. The first quarter of 2017 for example was very strong for us in Brazil because we had tight oil supplies. And so it is only when the Brazilian crush industry gets up to speed with new crop supplies of beans that this reverts. But I think we feel that this will be – it is building now and it will last until at least February-March. Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC: Thanks for all the questions.

Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.

Management

Sure.

Operator

Operator

And this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mark Haden for any closing remarks.

Mark Haden - Bunge Ltd.

Management

I want to thank everyone for joining us today, and we'll talk to you next quarter.