Thomas Gibbons
Analyst · Morgan Stanley
Thanks, Bob. It was a solid quarter overall with good fee growth and a nice pick up in net interest revenue. Earnings for the quarter were $0.59 or up 9% from a year ago. This includes a total of $0.04 per share similar to last quarter of litigation and MI expenses. It also reflects the benefit of approximately $0.06 from loan and securities gains. So the way we look at our core earnings, it nets to about $0.57 for the quarter. As I take you through the numbers, my comments will follow the Quarterly Earnings Review beginning on Page 2. Some highlights on a year-over-year basis. Total revenue was $3.9 billion, up 15%. Our core fees are growing nicely. Investment services fees were up 27%. And as Bob mentioned, that's 9% excluding acquisitions, reflecting net new business, higher Depositary Receipts and higher securities lending revenue. That's partially offset by higher money market fee waivers this quarter as well. Investment management fees were up 14% driven by higher market values and net new business. Net interest revenue was up 1%, largely reflecting growth in client deposits. Noninterest expense increased to 21%. That's 12% excluding acquisitions. That's reflecting the higher litigation and legal expenses. This is the quarter for our annual merit, as well as higher volume-related and business development expenses. Turning to Page 4 where we'll call out some business metrics that will help you understand our underlying performance. You can see that AUM and AUC reached record levels, reflecting new business and higher market values. AUM was up 22% year-over-year to a record level of $1.3 trillion. Second quarter long-term inflows of $32 billion were also a new record. Long-term inflows benefited from strength in fixed income, especially our liability driven investment products, as well as equity index products. Short-term outflows were $1 billion. Assets under custody was up 21% year-over-year to a record level of $26.3 trillion benefiting from the acquisitions, new business and higher market values. The other investment services metrics continue to show positive trends and with one exception, and that is Corporate Trust where the trend's relatively flat given the continued softness in the structuring debt markets. DR programs and net issuances increased, most of the major drivers of our clearing business improved, and the broker dealer collateral management book continues to grow as we gain market share, develop new products and benefit from the need for secure the exposures globally. Turning to Page 6 of the earnings review, which shows fee growth. Asset servicing fees were up 47% year-over-year as we continue to benefit from the acquisitions made last year. X acquisitions, asset servicing fees were up 14%. We also benefited from higher market values, net new business and higher securities lending revenue due to higher loan balances and spreads as Bob had mentioned. Asset servicing fees were up 6% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting seasonally higher securities lending revenue and net new business. Our 2010 acquisitions of GIS and BHF are both performing as planned with solid revenue growth. During the quarter, we won an incremental $196 billion in new Asset Servicing business for a total of $1.5 trillion over the past 12 months, of which $560 billion is yet to be converted. Issuer services fees were up 3% year-over-year and 4% sequentially. That's driven by higher DR revenue from higher corporate actions and service fees. It's partially offset by lower shareowner services and Corporate Trust revenue. Clearing fees were up 19% year-over-year due to growth in client assets. We set a record during the quarter of exceeding $1 trillion in client assets for the first time, and we also benefited from other new business. Now that reflects the positive impacts of the significant new Clearing businesses we were converting over the last couple of quarters and the impact of the GIS acquisition. Sequentially, the growth in assets was offset by lower transaction volumes and the higher money market fee waivers. Investment management had another strong quarter. Higher market values, net new business was partially offset once again by higher money market fee waivers. FX and other trading was up slightly both year-over-year and sequentially. FX revenue totaled $184 million, a decrease of 25% year-over-year, reflecting lower volatility, partially offset by higher volumes. FX revenue was up 6% sequentially, reflecting higher volatility. Other trading revenue was $38 million versus $25 million in the first quarter and that was driven by fixed income trading. Now let me give you some perspective on our FX activity. It is currently 5% of our total revenue. Of that 5%, approximately 40% is done through standing instruction, while the majority, 60%, is negotiated. Of that 40% done under standing instruction, only 15% is related to U.S. public pension funds and that's where the recent publicity has centered. In other words, the recent publicity is related to the FX activity that comprises less than 1/2 of 1% of our total revenues. Investment and other income totaled $145 million, flat from a year ago and up from $81 million in the first quarter. The sequential increase largely reflects gains related to loans held for sale, retained from a previously divested banking subsidiary. During the quarter, we took securities gains of $48 million as we saw an opportunity with the very low dip in interest rates to reduce the risk of our portfolio by selling longer dated U.S. Treasury and agency securities, shortening the duration in these very uncertain times. Turning to Page 8 of the earnings review. NIR was up $9 million versus the year-ago quarter and up $33 million sequentially. Both increases were primarily driven by growth in client deposits. Interest earning assets were up for the quarter and particularly spiked at quarter end, driven by negative repo rates, market uncertainty and the substantial level of liquidity that's still in the system. Revenue was also enhanced by the purchase of high-quality asset-backed securities in the first 2 quarters. Net interest margin was 141 compared with 149 in the prior quarter. The decrease was primarily driven by an increase in deposits. Had we not seen that growth in deposits, we estimate that the net interest margin would have increased slightly, so it would have been probably a little bit above 149, but earnings would have been down probably in the vicinity of about $8 million. Given the volatility we're seeing in our balances, we're really not currently trying to manage to the net interest margin. Frankly, earning 20 to 25 basis points on cash and a 0 risk asset is not bad even if it temporarily hurts the margin. Turning to Page 9 on expenses. Noninterest expense increased 21% year-over-year. That was driven by the impact of the acquisitions, as well as litigation and legal expenses. Excluding the expenses associated with acquisitions, we're up about 12%. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, expenses grew 4%. Both increases reflect the fact that we had the second quarter 2011 merit increase and that becomes effective the first day of the quarter on April 1, as well as higher volume-related business development expense. Other expenses were up $15 million, primarily due to a gain on credit support agreement in the first quarter. On Page 10, you can see that we continue to generate significant capital during the quarter. We generated more than $800 million in new Basel Tier 1 common, most of that through earnings, a little bit through intangible amortization. Net Basel Tier 1 common less dividends and buybacks was up $510 million. Looking at our capital ratio table, you will note that we are now disclosing our pro forma Basel III Tier 1 common ratio, which we estimated was 6.6% at the end of the quarter. I would like to emphasize that we continue to like our capital position. Our Tier 1 common Basel III ratio increased 45 basis points in the second quarter, reflecting the capital generation and slightly lower Basel III risk-weighted assets for the quarter. Looking forward, our earnings net of dividends and buybacks, are generating about 20 to 25 basis points of Tier 1 common per quarter, and the expected quarterly pay down of our sub-investment grade securities should add an additional 10 basis points. So you can expect us to generate somewhere in the 30 to 35 basis points a quarter. On top of that, the anticipated closing of our shareowner services transaction is expected to add approximately 20 more basis points to our Basel III ratio when it's closed. We also like the performance of our sub-investment grade portfolio. However, it is important to note that we could sell this portfolio and add approximately 250 additional basis points to the ratio. It's certainly nice to have this flexibility but our capital position is already so strong that we have no intention of doing something uneconomic. Bottom line, we remain confident in our ability to exceed the Basel III 7% target by year end, if not earlier. Given our current capital position and the strength of our balance sheet, we don't anticipate accelerating our time line to meet the proposed Basel III capital guidelines. As Bob said, we don't know our city buffer will be, but we are confident we can comply while continuing to return capital to our shareholders. On Page 11, you can see that our investments securities portfolio continues to improve and it's actually performing quite well. The value of the portfolio has increased over the first quarter, and the pretax net unrealized gain in our securities portfolio increased by $201 million to $770 million. I might add that pay downs in the sub-investment grade securities were approximately $330 million in the second quarter. Looking at our loan portfolio, you'll see that just as with last quarter, we had no provision for credit losses in the second quarter compared with a charge of $20 million in the second quarter 2010. NPAs declined from $386 million to $351 million, and the total allowance for credit losses decreased $19 million driven by charge-offs. The effective tax rate of 26.9% compares to 29.3% last quarter and 30.2% in the year-ago quarter. The lower tax rate is a little misleading in the second quarter because it was driven primarily by the impact of the consolidated investment funds. On a going forward basis, excluding the impact of investment fund consolidation, we continue to expect the effective operating tax rate to be in a range of 30% to 31%. Looking ahead, while there's a great deal of uncertainty in the markets given the events playing out in Europe and our own unresolved debt issues here in the U.S., we're encouraged by the revenue momentum we've achieved these last few quarters. We had nice fee growth and it felt like we've turned the corner on NII. We continue to work on addressing our expense growth and look forward to sharing more specific plans on our Investor Day in late fall. A few points to factor into your thinking about the coming quarter. Both NIR and fees continue to be impacted by this persistently low interest rate environment but should benefit from our ongoing investment program. We would expect to continue to generate NII at the level we did in the second quarter. Litigation remains a risk. Third quarter earnings have traditionally been impacted by seasonality that's associated with lower levels of capital markets related revenues, particularly securities lending and foreign exchange, so we'd expect to see that. One thing that's a little bit different than the third quarter is we expect the seasonal spike in dividend payments that normally occurs during the fourth quarter, we might actually see some of that in the third quarter, so that's going to be a positive. And we expect the quarterly provision to be in a range of 0 to 15 as we've seen for the last few quarters. And finally, we expect to continue our buyback program. In summary, we had a solid quarter. With that, I'll turn it back to Bob.