Thomas P. Gibbons
Analyst · Nomura
Thanks, Gerald, and good morning, everyone. As I take you through the numbers, my comments will follow the Quarterly Earnings Review beginning on Page 2. Earnings for the quarter were $0.42. And as Gerald noted, that included a restructuring charge of $107 million or approximately $0.06, and that was related to our efficiency efforts. And there was about $0.02 of charges related to a higher provision and higher M&I expenses. Our results included the impact of lower volumes, as Gerald mentioned, generally reflecting the uncertainty in the financial markets, and we saw that especially late in the quarter. Combined share volume on the exchanges was down meaningfully. Year-over-year key international markets were down substantially, and the U.S. indices were flat. And more specifically to our results, we were impacted by the new seasonality that we experienced in our Depositary Receipts business. So in this environment, our success is really based on our ability to reduce the growth rate of operating expenses, and we made some pretty good progress, as Gerald had noted. Now let's look at the highlights on a year-over-year basis. Total revenue was $3.5 billion. That's down 6%. Investment Services fees were down 8%, and that's primarily due to lower DR revenue but it also was impacted by lower volumes and higher money market fee waivers. As you'll recall, the seasonal spike in corporate actions in our DR business that normally occur in the fourth quarter now occur in the third quarter. If you adjust for that seasonal impact, Investment Services fees decreased 3%. Investment Management and performance fees were down 9%. That too was driven by higher money market fee waivers, lower performance fees and weaker international equity markets that were partially offset by net new business. Net interest revenue here was a bright spot. It was up 8%. And that largely reflects the additional client deposits and the growth in secured lending as well as our securities portfolio. The provision was $23 million, and it primarily resulted from the default of a broker-dealer customer. Our noninterest expense increased just 1% and was down 2% if we exclude the restructuring charges and M&I expenses and 3% on that same basis for the link quarter. Turning to Page 4, where we call out some business metrics that'll help you explain -- help explain our underlying performance. You can see that assets under management was up 8% year-over-year to $1.26 trillion. We had long-term inflows of $16 billion in the fourth quarter, and so we've had positive long-term flows in every quarter of 2011. Long-term inflows have benefited from the strength in the fixed income and equity indexed products. Short-term inflows for the quarters were -- the quarter was about $7 billion. Assets under custody was flat sequentially, but it's up 3% year-over-year to a total of $25.8 trillion. Most of that was driven by net new business. Now most of the metrics that you see here showed solid growth on a year-over-year basis. Loans and deposits continue to grow. DR programs are up modestly, and clearing and broker-dealer services metrics are up substantially. However, each of our Investment Services businesses was impacted by the short decline in volumes in the quarter. So the underlying fundamentals of our business remain pretty strong, and that positions us well for any rebound in the capital markets. Asset servicing fees were down 3% year-over-year and 4%, sequentially. Both decreases reflect lower volumes, a shift in client asset allocations and the termination of client relationships from recent acquisitions that we made. And these terminations result from the fact that clients don't meet our risk profile. That was partially offset by the impact of net new business. We had a very strong new business quarter with $431 billion in new AUC wins, all of which we would expect to be converted by the end of the second quarter of this year. Issuer services fees were down 30% year-over-year and 35%, sequentially, and again, that's due to the seasonally lower DR revenues. If you adjust for that seasonality, fees were basically flat sequentially. Clearing fees were flat year-over-year as new business was offset by lower volumes and then higher fee waivers. They were down 6% sequentially, reflecting the lower trading volumes and again, the higher link quarter money market fee waivers. Investment Management and performance fees were down 9% year-over-year and flat sequentially. Sequentially, Investment Management fees were flat as net new business and higher performance fees were offset by lower revenue on equity investments and the higher money market fee waivers. Now you've heard me mention the money market fee waivers several times now. Let me now aggregate the impact across our company. For the quarter, money market fee waivers were a $0.06 drag on our EPS, and that compares to 3% last year and $0.05 in the third quarter. The revenue impact was nearly $65 million for the year-over-year quarter. In FX and other trading, revenue was down year-over-year, but it was up sequentially. Looking at the components, FX revenue totaled $183 million. That's a decrease of 11% year-over-year and 17% sequentially. Both decreases reflected lower volumes. The year-over-year decrease was partially offset by higher volatility, while sequentially, volatility actually decreased. Other trading revenue was $45 million. That compares to $52 million last year and a loss of $21 million in the third quarter. The sequential improvement was primarily driven by a lower credit valuation adjustment. Now some of you may have seen that yesterday, we reached a partial settlement in the FX lawsuit that was brought by the U.S. Attorney's Office. The settlement results disclosures that -- disclosure claims that were related to FX marketing. We're pleased with the settlement, but you should be aware that no financial agreement is related to it, and it does not affect any claims for monetary damages. And importantly, it also does not admit to any wrongdoing in our part. As we've said in the past, we will continue to be alert to opportunities for pragmatic resolutions. However, we remain convinced that our legal defenses continue to be rock solid. Now turning to investment and other income. It totaled $146 million in the fourth quarter of 2011. That compares with $80 million in the prior year and $83 million in the third quarter. The increases over both periods primarily resulted from a pretax gain of $98 million on the sale of Shareowner Services, and that was partially offset by a $30 million write-down of an equity investment. Now I'd like to point out that the $98 million pretax gain on the sale of Shareowner Services translated into only a $4 million after-tax gain due to the nontax-deductible goodwill that was associated with the business. Turning to Page 8 of the earnings review. NIR was up $60 million versus the year ago quarter and was up 5% sequentially. Both increases reflect growth in client deposits, which drove the increase in cash at central banks. Average noninterest-bearing client deposits increased $3 billion or 4% versus the third quarter. The year-over-year increase also reflects increased investment in high-grade securities and growth in our secured lending program. The net interest margin was 1.27%. That compares to 1.54% a year ago, and the decrease was driven by just the increased deposit base. Turning to Page 9, you can see that year-over-year total noninterest expense, excluding the restructuring charges and M&I expenses, declined 2%. And that's reflecting lower staff expense, which was partially offset by higher litigation expense. If you exclude the impact of litigation, expenses actually declined 3%. The sequential decrease primarily resulted from lower staff expense, reflecting lower incentives as well as a decline in headcount and lower litigation expense and lower volume-driven expense. All of that was partially offset by higher professional legal and other purchase services, which was primarily consulting, software and equipment and business development expenses. The increase in software and equipment was due to increased license fees and some new software that we brought online. As you can see, the $107 million in restructuring charges was comprised of $78 million for severance costs, and there was $29 million of lease write-offs and consulting expenses. Page 10 details our capital ratios. As Gerald noted, our estimated Basel III Tier 1 common equity ratio was up 60 basis points to 7.1% at quarter end. That's a little ahead of what our previous guidance was. A little less than half of the improvement was driven by the -- a reduction in goodwill and intangible assets as well as the risk-weighted assets related to our sale of Shareowner Services business. Paydowns of -- and paydowns in sales of investment securities accounted for most of the remaining benefit from the reduction in risk-weighted assets, and the other contribution was obviously the retention of earnings. We continue to expect to generate about 20 to 25 basis points a quarter in Basel III Tier 1 common. And that includes the impact of buybacks and dividends. We're fortunate that our business model enables us to rapidly generate capital, and it does not require a significant growth in risk-weighted assets. Both of these attributes position us very well to comply with all the Basel III requirements well ahead of the phase-in periods. Our Basel Tier 1 common equity ratio was 13.4% at year end. That's up 90 basis points from the end of September, driven primarily by earnings retention and the sale of Shareowner Services, and we generated approximately $570 million of Basel I equity in the fourth quarter. Part of the growth resulted from the decision to slow our buybacks in the quarter to strengthen our leverage ratio. Now that we have done that, we're well positioned to continue buying back shares in the fourth quarter -- excuse me, in the first quarter under our existing program. On Page 11, you can see that our Investments Securities portfolio continues to perform well. The Watch List actually declined 15%. And the sub-investment grade RMBS securities were down about 11%, and those were down driven by sales -- excuse me, by paydowns, but we did do some opportunistic sales as well. The pretax net unrealized gain in our securities portfolio decreased modestly to $793 million. Looking at our loan portfolio, you'll see that the provision for credit losses was $23 million. That compares with a credit of $22 million in the prior and year ago quarters, and the increased provision was primarily the result of the bankruptcy of a broker-dealer that I earlier mentioned. NPAs actually declined from -- in the quarter from $344 million to $341 million. The effective tax rate of 30.6%, that was negatively impacted by the nondeductible goodwill associated with the sale of our Shareowner Services, but most of that was offset by a more favorable mix of foreign and domestic income. Now looking ahead, NII should be steady. Fee waivers may not get better, but they should have troughed. Of course, I think I've mentioned that on multiple earlier calls, that I thought they've troughed, but at this point, there's not much left to waive. The quarterly provisions should be in the range of $0 to $15 million. We're focused on driving expenses through our -- or driving down expenses through our operational excellence initiatives. As we've outlined on our Investor Day, our initiatives are projected to drive net savings of $240 million to $260 million this year, and we've made some pretty good early progress. Assuming regulatory approval, we plan on combined dividend and share buyback ratio of 60% to 65% for 2012. As always, the timing of our share buybacks will be based on prevailing market condition. The significant growth on our capital positions us well for the stress test that we -- by the way, we just recently submitted to our regulators. And finally, the tax rate in the first quarter should continue to be approximately 30%. With that, let me turn it back to Gerald