Laurence Douglas Fink
Analyst · UBS
Good morning, everyone. Thanks, Ann Marie. Happy new year to everyone. I'm going to have a little more exhaustive review of the world today, and I'll try to put that in the context of BlackRock, and try to describe from our vantage point what our clients are seeing and what type of questions they're asking us. Let me just review really quickly 2011, which I think, by any course of the imagination, was a challenging market environment for a lot of people. We have the sovereign credit crisis in Europe, destabilization of the Middle East, continue economic uncertainty worldwide, renewed economic uncertainty in the emerging market area, a lot of tragedy in Japan with the tsunami and the earthquake, and the United States politically disappointing us in terms of the deficit ceilings and the persistent problems of unemployment in the United States, a persistent problem in housing in the United States and, by any long-term measure, muted growth. Unfortunately for 2012, it's not going to get that much better economically, and yet, I'm quite bullish as I was in 2011 on the direction of the global equity markets. But 2012 will represent a continuation of volatility. We have a very important election in France. I don't think the market appreciates the importance of that election. From my vantage point, if Sarkozy does lose an election, it would move, obviously, France more to the left. And I don't -- I have a hard time understanding the union between France and Germany in that circumstance. And so I think we have more political uncertainty in Europe than we normally do, on top of all this economic uncertainty. We, obviously, in our country in the United States, we have another election, which is going to lead to a lot of political gridlock and greater uncertainty. We have leadership changes in the latter part of this year in China, which could lead to different policy changes. We have threats from Iran, continued unrest in the Middle East and continued sovereign debt crisis in Europe. We will persistently have a muted housing market. I still think it's going to have another 2 years to truly stabilize housing in America. We continue to have unsustainable level of deficits in this country and we continue to have muted growth. So markets are going to be influenced a lot by these events, driven by government and politics. Yet at the same time, balance sheets are improving worldwide. Corporations in the United States, in many cases, in Europe have never been stronger. Cash balances have never been bigger, and the amount of de-risking that has been done worldwide leads me to have a -- despite all this uncertainty, a more positive overview. And one of the big challenges for all investors worldwide is to stop looking at the blogs, the immediacy of news and focus on long-term challenges and how to manage your long-term liabilities over those long-term challenges. This is not being done as much as they should be. This is why we've seen such a de-risking. But it is my belief for those investors who have the ability to overcome the challenges of the short-term news events and start focusing on their own internal challenges and their own internal liabilities and try to design portfolios and returns that will navigate higher returns over 5- and 10-year cycles. Those investors are going to be benefited much more than those who are continue focusing on the immediacy of the moment. And so I believe, overall, we are going to have a positive trending market over the course of 2012, and yet, there's going to be a lot of volatility within that time. It is very -- it is not surprising to me watching how Europe has stabilized, at the same time, that you're the ECB do their own form of quantitative easing and they could do that through a 3-year term debt repo, which is giving a lot of purchasing power, not unlike what happened in the United States when our Federal Reserve did the quantitative easing. So you're starting to see aggressive auctions now in sovereign credits in Europe. Let's hope those continue. But this is as a result of the ECB actions. And I don't believe the ECB has been given enough credit for their actions. Mario Draghi also has one more major tool in his toolkit that our Federal Reserve does not have. A short-term rates in Europe were 1%, so there's a great opportunity, if necessary, to lower rates also in Europe to producing more steep yield curve, which will invent -- ultimately create better opportunities in buying longer-term credit. So I think we're going to have this mix and match going forward in 2012, but I have, like I did in 2011, a bias towards focusing on long-term investing. These challenges, though, really create real difficulties for a lot of our investors, and I'm pleased to say BlackRock is well positioned to work with our clients. And I'm not just talking about institutional clients. And I'm not talking about just U.S. clients, but global institutional clients. Our retail clients are all looking for advice. Most investors -- pension funds are looking for returns of 7-plus percent. Very hard to achieve that when you own bonds that are yielding 2%. And so the dialogues we need to have with our investors are very different than the dialogues we had 5 and 7 and 10 years ago when you had significant opportunities in yield and bonds to make those type of returns. Dialogues today require talking about many more aspects of investing today, and no firm in the world is as well positioned to have that more complete dialogue talking to our investors' challenges. Earlier or late last year, we did have an institutional conference with our clients, and the theme of the client -- of the conference was investors are no longer have the ability to find low-hanging fruit, but they're going to have to spend more time in finding that high-hanging fruit. And I think that's going to be the theme for 2012. The other big issue, and no one else has this platform, clients have to spend more time focusing on their own specific solutions. And I -- the way we are positioned -- and I'm going to talk about some of the major theme for 2012, how we're positioning to help our clients into solutions, but I just need to also, as I do every time we talk about it, is the overlay of what our BlackRock Solutions risk management Aladdin platform allows us to do in navigating these types of solution-based conversations with our clients. So if I had to just reflect on the fourth quarter, as we think about now going into 2012, the diversity of our business model has substantially dampened the impact of volatile markets. Ann Marie spoke about the growth of solutions, the beta products versus alpha products, and I'm going to go into more granular detail about the Defined Contribution about multi-asset strategies. But it's the diversity of products that is allowing us to have more complex conversation with clients, more stable earnings and a more powerful future, especially in this low-rate environment that I don't believe people truly understand the impact on many asset managers, the impact on our clients of this persistence low-rate environment. So let me talk about our growth areas for 2012 in these uncertain markets that I just discussed. Also, I have to overlay not just this uncertain market as we enter 2012. We are going to have a persistent issue related to the aging populations worldwide and the need for better retirement solutions. It's interesting for me to watch the global dialogue of the U.S. and the Europe about deficits. And yet, there's such a small dialogue about retirement. It is my opinion the retirement crisis or the lack of monies necessary to meet our aging population and our -- and a population worldwide that's going to live longer, the biggest crisis is not just going to be a sovereign credit crisis, but the biggest crisis we're going to face in the coming years is a retirement crisis, the -- having the appropriateness of money to live the lifestyle that you're accustomed to during your retirement ages. This is not being discussed. This is a severe issue, and the persistence of low rate aggravates the problem much greater. So with those ideas, I wanted to talk about where we believe, for BlackRock, are 5 key opportunities for making, obviously, our clients in a better position, but in doing so obviously, making BlackRock a better stock to own. Part one, we do believe very strongly as people start looking at risk budgeting, the use of indexing in ETFs becomes a larger component of your framework, and we are very much a part of that dialogue. Despite some negative flows in alpha products, which was industry-wide, we benefited as a firm because of our strong position in the beta products, both in the index funds and the ETF products. We believe this will carry on. And when you think about risk budgeting, we believe -- and we just started seeing a trend. We're going to see more and more investors move out of active types of strategies and some -- in some, not all, fixed income strategies to go into more indexing. We believe they're going to see, as a result of it, more of a barbelling a lot of investors in fixed income and go into the high-yield area, maybe the bank loan area. There's great opportunities in other product like munis. They're obviously going to go into emerging market debt. But in terms of treasuries and maybe mortgages, you're going to see a lot more need for -- in the risk budgeting component, indexation or ETFs. And then you're going to allow these institutions to start thinking about taking greater alpha risk in other product, whether it is high yield or any other types of yielding product. And it may mean a greater allocation, which really, the first time in many years, impacted the equities in the form of dividend stocks and other things like that. But our first position is indexing and ETFs. Our second area of growth for 2012 and beyond, as we have been investing aggressively, as Ann Marie spoke about, and that is alternatives. Where we believe clients are going to use indexing or ETFs on one side of the barbell, and they're going to be more aggressive in terms of alternatives. We expect the alternative paydays to start coming out as we build -- are building more and more teams, and we will continue to build out more and more products and teams in the various alternative space. We are in the markets right now in a -- in many types of products, whether it's alternative energy, private equity and other forms of alternatives space. We are in the market of raising money right now. But I will also say, we see great opportunities in many alpha products at BlackRock. We had outflows in our scientific active equity area last year, but our performance was great. The dialogue with our clients is beginning to have a turnaround, and we think we will see, by the end of 2012, inflows into this product. As I mentioned early before, we are continuing to have great dialogue about high yield. Emerging market debt, today we won a very important assignment today, about $350 million in emerging market debt fund. So we are starting to see clients start navigating and not just in alternatives, but in other types of, what I would call, higher alpha opportunity long-holding products. We are seeing clients focus on model-driven fixed income. We are seeing clients saying, after a lot of negative noise earlier last year, the clients who entered the muni market last year had some of the great returns of anyone as we witnessed state and local governments navigating down their deficit issues and becoming a little more responsible. And the muni market responded very, very nicely on that. So we are seeing not just opportunities in the beta product, but in also the specialized alpha products, which leads me to our multi-asset strategy solution. More and more clients are looking for more of a fiduciary relationship with firms like BlackRock. Other firms are participating very nicely in this. But clients are coming to us for a more -- they're looking for a more complete solutions. They're looking for a more complex, more comprehensive relationship with us, and most importantly, they're looking for a deeper dialogue. And in the fourth quarter, when I go over some of the highlights of some of the wins, this is an area that we're continuing to see growth. We're continuing to add more employees in this area and building a broader depth of people. The third area -- excuse me, the fourth area is retirement and income. As I said, I can't think of a more important area that we all have to focus on. This is not just a U.S. phenomenon. This is going to be a worldwide phenomenon. Aging population worldwide is creating much greater need for better retirement solutions. And I think at BlackRock, we are trying to navigate products into these solutions. We're showing up more and more of the Defined Contribution business, where we added $6.3 billion in the fourth quarter net new business or -- and we added $31 billion of net new assets in our DC business for the year, which represented, for us, about a 10% organic growth area in this area. And as I think I said in other quarterly report -- earnings, there's only less than a dozen firms that are in this area of defined contribution. And so we're seeing seismic changes in the asset management business. The Defined Contribution, movement out of defined benefit, and the Defined Contribution is a very good example of that. Obviously, the movement out of active into indexing is another good example. The utilization of ETFs is another good example. So fifth area that we're focusing as the theme for 2012 is income. Investors worldwide have to rethink about income. In this low-rate, volatile environment, clients are looking for more products that can provide, obviously, less volatility in pure equities. But their -- but they can't afford to own bonds yielding 2%. And so they are looking for solutions that, as I discussed before, that may have high-yield elements to it. It may have preferred stock, preferred bond elements to it. And most importantly, it's going to be heavily oriented towards dividend stocks that have lower beta tracking than the normal equity markets. But once again, to have a dialogue with our client about these products, have -- showing how these types of products can have lowing track -- lower beta than the market but higher return than bonds, requires a comprehensive dialogue with our clients. Let me just overlay all that, as I said earlier, which differentiates us in that BlackRock Solutions, which clearly had an exceptional year and quarter. The momentum into 2012 continues. As Ann Marie spoke about it, this was predominantly a U.S. business that is becoming a very global business for us. This year, we expanded, as I said, in Europe and Asia. We added 2 more Aladdin clients in Japan. We saw a huge increase in our advisory relationships and assignments in Europe to work with governments and financial institutions navigate their circumstances. And we reached now -- in terms of the Aladdin system utilization, we now have $10.2 trillion onto our risk analytic platform that we help clients in navigating risk. Our pipeline for Aladdin implementation has never been stronger. We are only weakened in that platform because of the utilization of people and time, and I believe 2012 will be even more robust for us than 2011. Before I go into some specific details, I also have to just say, our #1 responsibility is producing returns. And that's true for tracking error in our beta products, where we exhibited some very weak tracking error in one of our products in 2010. We turned that around, and we had very positive flows in our emerging market ETF product. We have to have a very strong alpha, where I would say, in 2011, some of our products underperformed. Some of our products did very well. But overall, we did well. I am not happy with where we are. I wanted to be even better than well in terms of the alpha products. We know our clients are not just hiring us for advice. They're hiring us for performance, and every client and every employee understands that. In 2011, to build this momentum, we're continuing to invest in our people and our brand. Going into 2012, we are going to build our brand awareness worldwide, it'll be a major strategic effort for us. And as Ann Marie discussed as a statement of growth, we added close to 900 people worldwide as we continue to build out our platform. One other thing I wanted to just talk about the returning of value to our shareholders. Obviously, 2011, we did quite a bit of that. It is my expectation that we are going to continue to use an enormous large free cash flow, combination of dividends, stock repurchases, and a little later, I'll talk about some possible M&A opportunities. Let me go into the details of the different products really quickly and then we'll open up for questions, because I know a lot of you are going to jump off but then get on to the other institutions who had calls today. Overall, in the ETF market, our iShares product really picked up momentum from, I would say, a slow start in the first quarter to a very strong finish. I am very pleased to say that our flows into 2012 continue to be quite aggressive where we already, year-to-date, and our ETF products have close to $4.4 billion in new flows into our products. For the year, last year, we had about $53 billion of flows, and it really picked up a lot of the momentum in the fourth quarter. I am pleased to say that we recaptured the #1 share in net flows in the United States, where, as I said earlier in the year, we really did not do as well as we expected. I think I said in our last third quarter report that I expected much more from our team and we are starting to see that. And we continue to have a large international dominance in our ETF platform worldwide. We continue to try to build that dominance, as Ann Marie announced -- noted, that we did buy Claymore Securities, an ETF platform in Canada. And why that was important for us because we have a huge market in Canada right now, and we're very happy with our position in Canada. Our presence in Canada was predominantly institutional. Claymore has a very strong retail presence where we did not have that type of strong presence. They had some very strong products like the Canadian dollar gold fund, very simplistic products. And it's those simplistic products are the best, so I don't mean that in any negative way. I mean that in a very positive way. And so it really fit very nicely into our product mix and our client profile mix. And so we look forward to doing that. And I do believe, just as a footnote, there are going to be many more opportunities for us to fill in our ETF presence worldwide if these -- if and when other companies come up for sale. On the retail side, I'm particularly pleased with our North American results in 2011, and I think we're in a very good position for 2012. As I discussed earlier, we picked up market share in U.S. retail. There were huge outflows in the U.S. mutual fund business at ETFs, and we had inflows. I unfortunately believe you're going to continue to see outflows in traditional mutual funds in the United States, as clients are trying to diversify and look for different products, but this trend is not going to be arrested any time soon in the industry. And I do believe BlackRock will continue to pick net market share. As I said over the last few years, this is a big priority for us to continue to build out our presence in the U.S. mutual fund business. When I spoke about one of our priorities in 2012, to continue to build our brand and put a big effort, we believe it's really important for us as we build out our presence in U.S. and international retail, that our brand presence has to be a much stronger result. In international retail, however, we had outflows, like the industry, and it's a function of the massive de-risking that is going on in Europe. We're sitting here thinking about how difficult Europe is. Imagine if you're sitting there with your pension fund, sitting in some form of a long-term investment, many people have capitulated and frozen, and the whole industry have seen, most recently, outflows in the international retail. And most of this money just sitting in cash, and so it's not this -- it's not like this money is running away and permanently gone. It's -- people are looking for greater stability to get back into the marketplace. At the moment, though, I don't see a turnaround in any short period of time in international retail for an industry. It's -- it will continue to have, I want to call, mediocre flows until we see a more stability in the continent. Institutionally, same idea. As we have all this uncertainty and the persistence of low rates, we're seeing more and more institutions de-risk, and they de-risk in the form of moving from active to passive. Fortunately, our business model allows us to take advantage of that, and I believe we are going to continue to take advantage of that. It is our hope, as we continue to build out our alternative products, we will continue to benefit from that, and we will see that. So in the fourth quarter, in our -- in institutional, we did have positive flows in our index products. And I must say, we are continuing to see clients seeking probably more passive strategies on the institutional side. I do believe, like we've seen in many other years, this reminds me of the first quarter of '09 when we discussed to all of you at the end of what happened with '08, how clients capitulated, clients paused, clients looked for advice. And then starting the second and third quarter, we started to see clients doing much more active strategies. I do believe that will be the same process. And I can't tell you the types of conversations we have with our investors now in the first quarter are much more dynamic than we had last year, and clients are looking for the solution-based relationships. So I'm very pleased about how we are being positioned, but I don't want to say that we are seeing a massive turnaround in that -- in behavior from the fourth quarter into the first quarter. But this is the time pension funds, retirement funds, endowments, insurance company ask themselves how are they going to position themselves in the future. They will be going to their respective boards and talking about strategies, risk budgeting, and that's where we're having a dialogue. And I believe we're playing a bigger role in helping our clients play that role. So I am looking here to be the -- I look to the same themes that we saw in '09 on the institutional side. Let me just talk -- touch on a few things, and it's getting time for open up there for questions. As I said earlier, our Defined Contribution business continues to be strong with about $6 billion -- over $6 billion of inflows in the quarter. Our multi-asset strategy, once again, the solution-based stuff that I'm talking about, we have $3.2 billion of net new business, and clients are looking for more customized solutions. One of the good creative products we created last year, and I think I mentioned it in the third quarter, and this is a product that we did a wrapper using annuity products in some of our glidepath products with Met Life. We launched this product in May, and we continue to generate strong inflows. This is something that we budgeted, about $1 billion product. We are now at $2.4 billion in size, of which $1.1 billion was raised in the fourth quarter alone. So when you're innovative, when you've designed products that fit the clients' needs, we see the benefits. In terms of alternatives, we had outflows in a product that was more currency and commodity based, and that -- we're going to see big inflows and outflows that was more currency-overlay type of product. And -- but we continue to have more dialogue that -- with more investors worldwide in our alternative products. Ann Marie talked about some of the performance stuff that we've ever had before. And we believe we're going to see real inflows in 2012 if we use 2011 as a year to really building these products. In cash, we've seen -- in the fourth quarter, we saw inflows for the first time in, I think, 6 quarters, and we'll see where the cash management business goes in this low-rate environment. But the one thing I could say related to the cash management that's somewhat connected, that's in security lending. That produced some very good returns for us and our clients in 2012 (sic) [2011], especially in the fourth quarter. We're seeing more hedge funds looking to utilize stocks again, especially in the fourth quarter. And so if I could talk about cash management and sec lending, that was a very big pleasant surprise for us, and we continue to see utilization rates going up. And there is a -- despite how low rates are, there's a steep yield curve between 1-day and 90-day money. And so that's been helpful. On the BlackRock Advisory business, where we are advising money for large clients, some are very well-known clients, we continue to be -- and I am pleased to say, we're continuing to liquidate these -- some of these portfolios, as our clients are achieving the objectives they needed to achieve in terms of giving us these advisory assignments as -- and now, they're starting to wind these down. So we're going to continue to see that side of our AUM going down. As you know, this is a -- just a very, very low fee basis. We were very pleased with the role that we have played in some of these large-scale public advisory assignments. And I do believe when there's a need for us to play those roles, we will be back playing those roles again. Let me just touch on 2 other things, and that's the M&A environment. I have never seen a more asymmetric market, massive sellers in the asset management business. Obviously, the trends are very hostile for a lot of asset managers, and two, you're seeing, because of Basel III and capital needs, many institutions that are affiliated with financial institutions are -- that are looking to decouple their asset management businesses. As I said in the third quarter and I'll say it again, we are not looking at any large platform purchase at all worldwide. There's rumors that we are involved in some large-scale platforms. I will deny that now. We are not. But we are very active in looking at fill-in products. We see some very unique opportunities now, and we are very excited about the opportunities we will have in terms of fill-in products, either in product or a fill in, in country. And we are in the presence of some active dialogues right now, but they're not these large-scale platforms. We do not believe those will be fitting for BlackRock, and so I'll leave it at that related to M&A. The regulatory environment will be upon us sometime this year. We still have -- this is very fluid. This will impact all of us in financial institutional land. It will have an impact on our clients. It will have an impact on BlackRock and other things. So we will see how all this plays out. We are very excited about the CFTC announcement and vote last week. This is a great example, whereby a regulator did the right thing for investors and assurance that we're going to have segregation of our collateral. So when people talk about regulation, some regulation is good for all of us. And I will be -- we will be very out-front in regulation, making sure that in the regulation, as it's being formulated, that it's good for our investors. And we will be vocal when it is. And so there are regulation that everyone should be proud of, that we are building a sounder, safer financial community. There is some regulation, though, I'm not going to get into that I'm worried about, that could have an impact on cost of doing business. And we will quietly discuss that with the regulators in how to minimize those costs to our clients. Overall, I would say 2011 was a good year. I'm very, very bullish on our positioning for 2012. I don't believe we have ever been in a position to take advantage of our business platform, in dealing with clients, in navigating these troubled marketplaces to give us even a larger presence, a larger opportunity and, obviously, great growth opportunities for earnings for all of us, for all of our shareholders. Let me open it for questions, and let me wish everyone a very healthy 2012.