Laurence Douglas Fink
Analyst · Nomura
Good morning, everyone. Thank you, Ann Marie. Before I talk about 2012 and the first quarter and going forward, it probably makes sense for me to reflect on how we guided to 2012 and talk about 2011 a little bit. The volatility we saw in 2011 really froze many, many clients worldwide. Cash buildup is -- grew up throughout 2011. Investing in bonds, short-term bonds, as a means to preserve wealth was a norm for most investors worldwide. And we saw, as an overall portfolio in 2011, pronounced derisking. Although the markets had risk on, risk off, risk on, risk off, I would say the preponderance of invested -- investors worldwide added more cash in short-term bonds over the course of 2011 than they did in some incremental investing in more risk-on products. We certainly also saw in 2011 more barbelling strategies; going into beta products, index and ETFs; and going into alternatives. And it was the uncertainty of -- from the U.S. in terms of our management of our deficits and our fiscal discipline and which was essentially the lows from the latter part of the second quarter going into the third quarter. And then we had the European crisis really coming to a real crisis in the third and fourth quarter last year. We began to see stability in the world as the U.S. economy started showing some rays of hope that there was stability. But more importantly, the actions from the ECB with their long-term financing vehicle, LTRO, that provided the necessary liquidity to stabilize Europe. And from that, we then began to see clients starting to focus on how derisked they were. And then going into 2012, we certainly saw large-scale clients moving from cash positions into longer-dated bonds, into credit type of products, into dividend-like equity products, all the types of themes that we are focused on in our campaign. And so overall, we saw some re-risking into the market. However, if you think about the internal generation of cash, I would still say the fears of the investor still is more overwhelming than the hope for a better future. So we -- despite the rally in global equities from its lows, I would still qualify the market to be quite fragile. Attitudes are basically on the borderline of pessimism than optimism. And also, we are seeing this in -- from our perspective, with CEO behavior. We're still seeing most companies being very risk-adverse. I think we're going to see in the first quarter above-forecast earnings. Essentially, the reason for that is everybody is for -- is overlaying a overall view of pessimism, not optimism. And we are actually seeing performance better than that pessimistic view, and therefore, we're seeing in terms of corporate earnings, more exceeds than misses. But as we enter the second quarter, I still believe there's a great deal of uncertainty ahead of us. It is very hard for investors and CEOs and politicians to decipher between the good news and the bad news. It's very difficult for investors to have truly a long-term view. And so this growth in investing in bonds continues, cash buildup continues mostly through bank deposits, less than money market funds, as an industry. And so I don't believe that the future is much different than it has been, but it is remarkable to think about how strong equity markets were in the first quarter, with just some incremental investing in equities. This is why, as I said October last year, as I said February this year, I still believe in equities more than ever before because we witnessed, with just some small investing, a pretty substantial rally in the equity markets. And that just is a great sign of how derisked people are. And as you look back in the first quarter, we saw large-scale repurchase of stocks from corporations, a very modest calendar of IPOs. And so as we enter the second quarter, the outstanding of equities in the world is less today than it was in January 1. And so it is -- so we're seeing CEO behavior purchasing shares back, raising dividends, all fundamentally strong foundations for a better equity market. But let us be clear: We are not seeing major changes in investor behavior. We are seeing some re-risking. So incrementally versus the third and fourth quarter of last year, yes, we are seeing a lot more investing, but I don't believe it's to -- it's at a point where we could say the markets are going to be really strong because of a strong transition out of the cash, out of more bonds into equities. That's just not happening yet. Despite all that, BlackRock fared very well, which I'm going to talk about in a minute. I think the U.S. economy will be and will continue to be a strength in the world economy. We believe the U.S. economy can grow between 2.5% and 2.8%. We are seeing stability in the employment market. We are seeing, incremental from the private sector, some job growth. We are still seeing some negative flow -- jobs created from the public sector. And I should remind everybody: If we ever do tackle our federal deficits, that is another way of saying we will have less jobs in our federal government as we tackle our deficits. And so we do need a robust private sector and we do need a robust job creator in the private sector. And that's going to be very important, going forward. Volatility in the world will continue in the next few weeks. We have a serious important election in France. We have elections in the United States in November. And it's very important that everyone focus on the issues around the U.S. deficit. We -- in our quest of trying to stabilize our fiscal discipline, we created this $1.2 trillion mandatory decline in spending beginning next year of which $700 billion will be for our military budget. This should start having an impact on our economy in the second and third quarter as, businesses that are chiefly doing business with our military and our defense, they're going to have to start focusing on what this decline in defense spending means for their companies. And so I have spent time in watching, urging Congress to focus on this today because this is not an issue that they need to focus on in November as they think their back's against the wall. I'm trying to alert Congress today: Their back's against the wall this moment. Business behavior has to respond not as quickly as politicians but over a multi-quarter period of time, and I do believe you're going to see business behavior change as we head towards the ultimate decline in military spending if we don't address that. One last thing, on the macro issues. I do believe oil is going to play a more significant role in terms of the outcomes in different parts of the world. I think that oil prices have a real influence on the ECB behavior. I do believe the ECB has to ease. And their interest rates are 1%, but because of oil playing a significant issue around inflation, the reluctance to ease in Europe is going to be very pronounced if we don't see a reduction in oil prices. If we can't see an oil price reduction of some magnitude, I do believe the ECB will ease, will ease aggressively, because it is our opinion that the euro has to fall in value for the southern-rim European countries to ever find growth. Right now, the southern rim politicians are constantly working on fiscal discipline, which erodes the economy, which creates greater strains on their population, greater strains on the issues of unemployment in the southern rim. And so we also need to find ways of growth in Europe and growth beyond the northern rim. If we don't find that growth, we will have more serious issues. And as I said earlier, the ECB issues is not a 3-year problem to work it out. It's a 4-, 5-, 6-, 7-year issue. So what does this all mean for BlackRock, with all this noise? We have seen a great interest with our clients worldwide in working with BlackRock to help them in guidance with advice in terms of how they should navigate their liabilities, how they should invest in their -- to assets to meet those liabilities. So I do believe our business model today has been more valid -- never been more valid than today in terms of working with clients as they try to decipher the good news and the bad news, the push and pull of markets. And I believe we are witnessing a real large increase in this type of advice. We are certainly seeing this in the form of our BlackRock Solution area, but we are seeing this in our multi-asset class area, we're seeing that in BMACS, we are seeing that in other high-contribution business. Some of this is being manifest in increased performance in our ETF iShares platform; some of it in our, as I said, defined contribution; some of it in our alternatives business. So excluding, as Ann Marie discussed, out this onetime previously announced outflow of a piece of index business that was out of our control, this was -- this organization portfolio was assumed by a government, and they internalized the assets. We had approximately $25.7 billion of long-term flows, very diversified. And when I look at the environment of the world, we were very pleased with that type of organic growth across many spectrums. And it actually -- these long-term flows actually corresponded to our brand campaign, our focus areas of ETFs, retirement income, multi-asset strategy solutions and alternatives. So it validated our platform. As our press release announced, we have approximately $3.685 trillion of assets. We witnessed over $200 billion of net growth in long-term assets to $3.34 trillion. And what I think is also interesting as we focus on BlackRock's mix: Our mix continues to increase in the multi-asset strategy area where we closed at $246 billion. We added more assets in alternatives to $110 billion. Fixed income ended the quarter with $1.244 trillion, and equities, $1.744 trillion. So once again, it's this business model of mix. It's a global business model. It's a solution-based business model that truly helped us navigate what I would call -- in a very uncertain time in the marketplace. The other thing that I think is important to relate, especially relative to the S&P: We entered this year with below-market level of revenues because of the performance of global equities outside the U.S. in the third and fourth quarter. And so when everyone focused on the S&P, the S&P was flat. And yet, as Ann Marie discussed earlier, there were some obviously very negative market performance numbers overseas in the third and fourth quarter. We had that big hole to overcome. We did. And so this is another reason why I'm particularly proud of how we navigated in this quarter. Before I get into some of the business highlights, let me just discuss some of the investments we made. Obviously, we're making investment in our brand. We believe our brand is becoming more and more important. It is significant for us to expand our brand. Our retail distribution partners have told us, "You need to expand your brand." We need to have some demand pull instead of sell push. And we are accomplishing that. The brand recognition is growing. The types of inquiries we receive globally in terms of our brand initiative has been quite strong. It is that brand campaign that has helped us to distinguish and help our clients decipher some of the noise. It is helping them understand where they should be focusing in these uncertain times and how they can navigate higher returns and mitigate some of the associated risk. We had more inquiry than we've ever had with our website. We had more inquiry with our telephone operators than we've ever had before, not just in the U.S. but worldwide. And so the impact is immediate. And we expect that impact to transform into sales over the course of the next few quarters and years. So we continue to believe in this. We believe it is differentiating us. We believe we're being thoughtful, helpful. And most importantly, we want to come across as a solution provider to all our clients: from our retail clients to our largest institutional client. The other area that we continue to invest and we will continue to invest and that is investing in our people as we see more and more opportunity to expand our platform. As I said over multiple quarters, we are not actively looking at large-scale acquisitions. I can tell you today we are continue to not looking at large-scale acquisitions. I've never seen an environment with more companies for sale, but we have not shown any interest in doing that. What we are doing, though, is looking for talented teams to augment our platform already. We added a emerging market debt team in Europe. We added a new head of one of our emerging market equity teams. We're adding more people across our capital markets, trading platform, marketings, communication. We're adding heavily in technology, which I'll get into in a minute, and risk in our quantitative analysis group. The one thing that I think the world doesn't understand in terms of cost, and that's the regulatory environment. The regulatory environment continues to take shape. I don't know what this totally means for BlackRock, but we're investing large sums of money to become compliant and stay ahead of regulation. This regulation will be required for all asset managers, all hedge funds, all private equity firms. We are talking about regulations such as Form PF, which is going to be requiring reporting derivative holdings to the CFTC and to the SEC. This is a large-scale need. We all -- and this is client-by-client reporting that has to be done on a continuum. We have FACTA, which we are going to have to report. This is a big issue for our EMEA area. We have a AIFMD, the alternative investment fund management directive, in EMEA. This is all requiring a buildup of technology. This is requiring building up more -- a larger team with our regulators. This is not just a BlackRock phenomenon. This is an industry phenomenon. This is going to be a large-scale need worldwide. One of the reasons why -- which I'll talk about it later on, why we are seeing more and more interest in Aladdin and BlackRock Solutions is because of the need for better technology, better systems. This is not just for our risk management reason, it is for reporting purposes too. Having a single technology platform is going to be imperative to properly submit all your necessary regulatory requirements to all the regulators worldwide. And so we are trying to stay ahead of this. We are investing money and time for this, and I do believe this is going to be a very large component of how other asset managers are going to have to respond. This is -- and I just want to underscore it: This is not a BlackRock-only situation. It is an industry-wide issue. Society is looking for greater transparency, greater information. And we are staying ahead of that, making sure we are compliant with all our clients worldwide. And we do believe, because of our position, we have a higher fiduciary standard in making sure we do this as properly as possible. Let me discuss quickly some of the businesses things. Ann Marie did a very good summary of a lot of the business issues. Our iShares business was a standout in the quarter, with $18.2 billion in net new business, which was remarkable. This is in line with our growth in the fourth quarter. Traditionally, in the first quarter, we have sometimes outflows, as you saw big inflows in the fourth quarter and outflows in the first quarter. The whole industry saw a very large increase in the utilizations of ETFs. As I said, I think a lot of the ETF flows was related to this modest risk on client -- added risk, added beta. As they were probably mismatched and too much concentration in cash and in bonds, they added more exposure, more beta, whether it's long-term bond beta or high-yield beta or beta in equities or commodities. They did it through ETFs. We are seeing a trend, though, of more and more investors using beta products as alpha. We are seeing more and more investors tactically allocating, using ETFs to get greater exposure to an asset category to a region, and ETFs are playing a more demonstrable role in that. I believe that will become a larger and larger component, and this is why we believe ETFs will continue to drive more and more growth. We are still not seeing ETF's cannibalizing of the mutual fund business. The mutual fund business is slow because people are not adding risk. I'll get into ours in a minute, but it is -- I don't believe much of this is cannibalization. I believe most of the growth in ETFs are new participants in these products. Much of it is institutional, as they use beta for alpha. The band across the ETF platform was oriented towards fixed income. For us, we had $9.4 billion of net flows. We captured 46% of the fixed income flows for the quarter. Particularly great were our U.S. and Canada iShares products growing about $14.5 billion. That was -- a lot of it was driven into emerging markets and more of our high-yield products. Our emphasis in dividends was rewarded also in -- because we saw equity income grow. We saw high yield grow to about $8.2 billion in inflows. We also saw, as people went back into the emerging market, markets after huge outflows. In the third and fourth quarter, we had $2.7 billion of inflows in our emerging market ETF products, and now it stands to be about $40 billion. Ann Marie suggested we closed the Claymore transaction. It was a wonderful time that it closed on and we had good flows in Canada. And more importantly, we have the dominant position both institutionally and retail in the ETF market in Canada, which we are very happy with. BlackRock -- legacy BlackRock was much stronger institutionally in Canada. The Claymore transaction really helped us on the retail side, so we cannot be more pleased with our position in Canada today. And as I said earlier, we will be looking to do in-market types of transactions like that if we could find opportunities to augment our position in different products, such as ETFs. International iShares, we grew by $3.7 billion. We had 59% of the EMEA market, much of that was -- had to do with a lot of market participants. We're leaving the note-related or the derivative types of ETN products and moving into the physical-based products. We have the large beneficiary of that as we have aggressively discussed the attributes of physical-based ETFs versus derivative-based ETFs: the credit exposure that investors have with derivative-based ETFs. As another example of our culture of innovation, we continue to build out more products. We added 44 new iShares products, as Ann Marie discussed, and those products have attracted already in the first quarter $700 million of new flows. And we continue to try to be as innovative as any organization. On the retail side, we continue to see strength in the U.S. and we continue to build our presence in the U.S. So we have many participants that had outflows in the retail mutual funds. We actually in the U.S. had $1.2 billion of net long-term flows. Another example how we are building our brand, we're building our presence in the retail area. In our European mutual funds, we had a modest $100 million of outflows. That is an example of the uncertainty in Europe and some of the uncertainty in Asia. We -- hopefully, we can stabilize our -- the businesses in Europe, but I think the European mutual fund business is going through this transition as the marketplace tries to understand what it means with the sovereign debt crisis of Europe. In terms of institutional business, we are still seeing clients being very, very cautious. Most of our clients institutionally are -- if they're adding beta, they're adding beta mostly in passive strategies to gain that market exposure. But we are seeing some inflows in our active products. In our Americas institutional business, we had $7.7 billion of growth, which was driven $5.7 billion in our active products. A lot of that was in our multi-asset class solutions. We also had a $1 billion award of a very large international client. That is a best idea strategy for BlackRock: a huge award with a very large international client. Our defined contribution continues to grow nicely. We had close to $10 billion of growth split evenly between active and passive strategies of which $3 billion was in our Life Path multi-asset strategy offering. And as we discussed in our branding campaign and as we discussed in many other forums, we believe a focus on longevity is essential. We do not believe so many Americans are adequately investing for their retirement properly. We believe they are miscalculating how long they are going to live. And we have a serious growing crisis in this country in terms of meeting the needs of longevity of life. As I said in many forums, we spend so much time focusing on health. We are -- as humans are trying to find new ways of extending a life, but we're spending so little time how to afford that longevity. This is something that -- where BlackRock is trying to provide answers, solutions, hope, and I think we are beginning that dialogue with many people on trying to find that solution. But it is essential that we all -- all of us in our industry focus on the needs of financing longevity in this country. This is not, I should state, this country. This is a worldwide problem. It's just as dire in other parts of the world, too, in making sure that we are saving enough. In EMEA, institutionally generated about $1.5 billion in inflows despite all this caution and de-risking. Particularly, that was for a large defined benefit plan. And we continue to see growth in our index strategies. But we lost about $3 billion in some of the active strategies in Europe, predominantly in U.K. equities as people de-risked in the U.K. and some of the credit strategies. I'm particularly pleased with the first quarter growth in alternatives. We had about $800 million of net new business during the quarter, but we are involved with so much dialogue. We've never had more dialogue with our alternative strategies than we've ever had before. This is what we've been talking about over the last year or so as we are seeing clients barbelling, using beta and using more alternatives of strategy. That is persisting, that is continuing to grow. That is not just a U.S. phenomenon, that is a worldwide phenomenon. And in Asia-Pac, we had one -- some outflows in Japan, particularly. We had $3 billion of outflows. We actually are seeing some very good inquiries in Japan right now and more opportunities, so I don't believe there's anything that is systemic about what happened in Asia. Let me talk about BlackRock Solutions. The need for strong risk management analytics continues to drive demand for our Aladdin-based services. What's particularly encouraging: While BRS revenues were down year-over-year by $5 million, we saw a 19% growth in Aladdin revenues. So we transformed the onetime wins into long-dated, sticky revenues. So this 19% growth in Aladdin was one of the biggest growth rates we've had in the last few years. It's indicative of what we see and the opportunities we have in Aladdin. You have to remember, we had, as Ann Marie discussed, some large dispositions in our advisory business, which reduced our fees. And as we -- we also had one very large governmental assignment, onetime advisory assignment, the first quarter of last year that we obviously -- it was a onetime assignment. So if you look at our -- the consistency of growth in the Aladdin side, this really encourage us to believe that we have huge growth opportunities going forward as we are becoming more and more as a percent of revenues being Aladdin versus the onetime advisory revenues. I'm not trying to suggest that the advisory revenues aren't good. They're wonderful, they actually -- in many cases, the onetime advisory revenues translates into an Aladdin contract. So it is a very, very important component of the BlackRock Solutions business. The momentum is strong, as I said, in Aladdin. We won a very large assignment in Japan, another example, as we are becoming more global in this platform. We now have $12.3 trillion in the Aladdin platform that we are navigating risk for clients and providing an operating system. And that is a record level. There has been quite a bit of noise related to the BlackRock-Aladdin trading network. Let me try to give a little more clarity about this. We are responding to the regulatory regime that is transforming the future ways of -- the sell side does business. Under Basel III, banks are going to really require you to have higher capital. Because of the Volcker Rule, banks are going to have more inhibition and some prohibition in doing principal trading. The natural outcome of that will be probably wider bid-ask spreads, and I want to underline "probably." Well, last, if we could see a narrowing in bid-ask spreads, quite frankly we don't need the Aladdin trading platform. We are doing this with the idea that we want to be the most and highest level of fiduciary to our clients. And if we are seeing a persistent widening in spreads, we believe this system will continue to be -- will flourish and grow. And so we are doing this with our sales right now where we are trying to cross more and more trades. And through our Aladdin clients' wishes, they ask to come onto this platform. And so we are beginning the process in which we are going to be adding some clients to this platform. And what -- let me underscore it: It will only be Aladdin-based clients that are going to be permitted to go on to this platform. For BlackRock trades, there is no commissions on this. We are not going to make -- we're not trying to become a broker-dealer. We are trying to be a fiduciary in minimizing our friction cost of trades. For our clients that are on the Aladdin system, we are going to try to charge a fee that overcomes our cost, and that is it. It is our intention through this platform in terms of revenues, hopefully, this will be another mechanism, another reason why clients want to go into Aladdin system. And if they are allowed -- if they are on the Aladdin system for risk management, they'll have access to this platform. That will be the revenue model as we design this. But this is not going to transform BlackRock in anyway. This is not going to change our behavior, our relations with the sell side. They are going to be powerful counterparties and powerful partners for us. And so I just want to diminish this noise around this: We look at this as raising the bar as fiduciary standard. Hopefully, this will augment more Aladdin-like revenues over the course of the next few years. But let's be clear: This is a long-term, multiyear strategy. This is not unlike when we've launched the Aladdin trading -- Aladdin technology platform as a mechanism to expand our relationships with our clients. We are going to continue to invest in our Aladdin system. I am very pleased to say that we are now winning more assignments in equities. So Aladdin system used to be only bonds, it's now in equities. So we are now having great opportunities across all our existing clients to offer the Aladdin system across all the different asset categories. Our SMA business, although we had those onetime wins from last year and we had some dispositions for our clients, continues to generate strong returns. And we are -- we have been awarded another country assignment, which I am not going to divulge, so we're working with another European country right now. It is public that we work for Ireland, and it's been public that we've been reengaged by Ireland this quarter. It is public that we are working on behalf of the Greek central bank. It is not public related to another Central Bank assignment in Europe. So we continue to be a firm that institutions are looking for advice and help. And it's -- and it continues to drive and differentiate BlackRock for the future. Let me just talk about some notable performance. We had very good performance at our hedge funds. We overcome some of our high-water mark hurdles in products like Obsidian. Our FIGA product continues to differentiate itself. R3 had a very good first quarter. Our Equity Dividend Fund continues to grow and continues to differentiate it. European equities, year after year, quarter after quarter, they have done an amazing job. Global allocations outperformed our benchmarks in the first quarter. That's our $8 billion go-anywhere product that Dennis Stattman runs. Our fixed income mortgage operation had a very good quarter performance. Global Bond continues to do well. Municipal retail has had another good quarter. So overall, I would say it was a very good quarter in terms of our products, our performance and the performance in the products that we are really pushing. Ann Marie discussed quite a bit about capital management. We are committed in increasing shareholder value through capital management decisions. We increased our dividend by 9%. We are -- we continue to repurchase shares. We have authority for a 5-million share repurchase. We continue to think and believe that we have great opportunity. We do have about $3-plus billion of free cash flow. As I said earlier in this talk, I am not here thinking that we're going to ever do a large merger again, so I would suggest that our position about using -- utilizing our free cash flow for dividend and for capital management through shares is going to be a position that we're going to take over the course of the next few years. We are very interested in, as I said, doing fill-in mergers, but we are -- with the opportunity that we have in lift-outs of teams, as we showed that we were able to do that in the first quarter, we will continue to do that too. So overall, the first quarter was a good one. I am very proud of how we positioned ourself going forward this year. I'm remarkably excited about where we are and where we're going. I am -- I really do believe we are as well positioned as any asset manager in the world as -- we are as well positioned at BlackRock as we've been in the last 6 years with our -- we don't have mergers to worry about, we don't have a world collapse to worry about. We're focused on clients, we're focused on providing solutions for clients, and we're well positioned globally worldwide with our team to provide those solutions. Once again, thank you. We can open it up for questions.